First Cut of Race Card

[Segwin]

I'm interested in how others go about making a first cut and elimination of races that don't make sense to bet.

I'm taking way to long to go through a race card looking for those that I think have a shot.

Thanks for the help.

[green80]

I'm interested in how others go about making a first cut and elimination of races that don't make sense to bet.

I'm taking way to long to go through a race card looking for those that I think have a shot.

Thanks for the help.


I first eliminate the ones that I think don't have a shot. Sometime I cannot eliminate any. Usually I can toss a few. I pass the races where over half the field can win.

[JustRalph]

Pencil n paper?

[Quagmire]

When pressed for time I'll handicap any maiden races last if at all. I'll let the toteboard tell me who's live in those.

[Valuist]

The very first cuts are races with less than 7 betting interests and maiden races loaded up with first time starters.

[Robert Fischer]

I'm interested in how others go about making a first cut and elimination of races that don't make sense to bet.

I'm taking way to long to go through a race card looking for those that I think have a shot.

Thanks for the help.

I have certain plays that are working for me, and I can recognize the basic ingredients for those plays by looking at the races on a card.
So I start with those races that have the ingredients. Then I will consider additional races that have a watch list horse.
Once those two groups are confirmed and narrowed down, I will also often have to look at races immediately before or after those races in order to consider multi-race wagers.

[thaskalos]

After some time in the game, it is natural for a player to develop certain biases for or against particular races. It is strongly advised that the player keep comprehensive records of his play, so that these biases could be based on fact rather than on a sometimes faulty memory.

Sometimes, a player's handicapping style goes a long way in determining what types of races the player will favor or avoid.

In my own play...my particular handicapping skills have proven to be most effective in claiming and allowance races on the dirt. Consequently...I am more cautious when I encounter grass races, maidens, and stakes races.

With the number of races that we have at our disposal on an everyday basis...I think it behooves us to be as selective as we have to be in order to play the best game that we are capable of.

[Capper Al]

Assuming this is for a paper and pencil capper:

First identify the top 3 jockeys and top 3 trainers by win percent.

The first cut for non-maiden races would be the bottom half of the BRIS Prime Number horses. Similarly for maidens, the bottom half of the trackman's selections. With both methods keep all ties.

Now with your remaining contenders look back and see who had a top jockey or a top trainer. These would be your quick select contenders.

Play all races, at least, on paper.

[pondman]

I will only play races that make economical sense to an owner. Therefore, I avoid the $4,000 juice races. I've seen far to many needles and flim flam in my life. With the exception of 1 type of play, which occurs infrequently, I avoid all claimers.

There are a few races that are too competitive--stater allowances.

My preference is for the high end owners.

And then I want a price. So on a Tuesday 8/20 I'd be looking at the 5th at Beaulah. I'd consider the MSW. Megan is back on Iron Vixen at a much softer level with a morning line of 8-1. I usually am a win better, but for that I'd use it as a key.

[LottaKash]

Sometimes, a player's handicapping style goes a long way in determining what types of races the player will favor or avoid.



I couldn't agree more about that statement....

For the most, that have advanced to a higher degree of handicapping, the crux of that statement will almost certainly pop up, as a matter of course, or as a "right of passage", if you will.....I think for the ones that have grasped the full weight of that particular paradigm, they have most likely, raised their game up a mighty notch or two...

I no longer waste as much time these days, when filtering a card, on races that I no longer have much interest in anymore, and this gives me more time to spend on the races that have shown to be very rewarding, and most importantly "fruitful" to me...This helps keep my confidence level up, and consequently, I tend to focus more when in that state of mind...And when I am focused, I can be almost deadly, "at times" :rolleyes:

My bottom line, for anyone who wants to raise their game up a bit, I'd say pay strict attention to where you are strong, and play only what is strong and avoid the unknowns.....You will get to do more of that later on, that is, if you remain loyal to your strengths, in the interim... "stay focused"...

[Dave Schwartz]

Sometimes, a player's handicapping style goes a long way in determining what types of races the player will favor or avoid.

Truly.

Because I am able to handicap so many races so quickly, my definition of "selective" will not fit most players. I do it in two steps:

Step 1: Play to My Strengths
Because I try to play to my strengths, I remove all turf races and races with FTS. Then I remove races with less than 5 betting interests. This leaves me the races to handicap.

Oh, and I automatically remove Keeneland because the racing there makes no sense to me. LOL

Step 2: Handicapping & Value
After I have chosen contenders and decided who I am going to bet, I look at the Risk/Reward metric I have created to determine how much should be wagered in the race.

I have found that those races which are below 62% of my average bet are not profitable and should be passed. That represents about 20% of all the races.

Conversely, I have found that those races 62% ABOVE my average bet size are hugely profitable. That also represents about 20% of the races.

[turninforhome10]

"Sometimes, a player's handicapping style goes a long way in determining what types of races the player will favor or avoid".

So it might be useful to discuss ways to analyze your results to find your strengths first?
A discussion of ways for the player to keep good records for proper analysis of data might be in order.
Is it more important to find contenders or eliminate horses based on your method or methods?
Finding a way to make sense of wagers you have placed and trending the data to find "weak spots" in public opinion would also be a good discussion point.
Contrast what Dave said about his way of finding the right path to start vs someone that specializes in maidens and turf. Both paths are right based on what your have committed your initial instinct to, and/or what you find through crunching databases. It would be interesting to see how some members chose what are the best methods for them and how they go about substantiating their beliefs with hard data. Is it gut or data?

[Capper Al]

Handicap them all. Wager what you like. The races you avoid may later be a good source of information which you can grow by and become a better handicapper.

[pondman]

Is it more important to find contenders or eliminate horses based on your method or methods?
Finding a way to make sense of wagers you have placed and trending the data to find "weak spots" in public opinion would also be a good discussion point.
Contrast what Dave said about his way of finding the right path to start vs someone that specializes in maidens and turf. Both paths are right based on what your have committed your initial instinct to, and/or what you find through crunching databases. It would be interesting to see how some members chose what are the best methods for them and how they go about substantiating their beliefs with hard data. Is it gut or data?

How about just finding a horse entered in a good spot? There doesn't have to be anything quantified or comparative. It's the play...the single. The horse is almost there, ready, and it's entered in a good spot. It's not going to be hit by the crowd, because it doesn't have performance #s, and it's going softer.

I've got data, but how much do you need in that scenario.

I also agree with betting maidens. I've crushed the high end 2 year olds this year.

[Midnight Cruiser]

How about just finding a horse entered in a good spot? There doesn't have to be anything quantified or comparative. It's the play...the single. The horse is almost there, ready, and it's entered in a good spot. It's not going to be hit by the crowd, because it doesn't have performance #s, and it's going softer.

I've got data, but how much do you need in that scenario.

I also agree with betting maidens. I've crushed the high end 2 year olds this year.

I kinda like to find a jockey/trainer/ combo that I like and make it the focus of my day. For instance, this past Sunday at Del Mar, you had a grass finale with Clemente shipping in from the east coast. He rarely comes here and when he does, he is live. So what did I do- I singled him in the nitecap and left out the 86 dollar horse in the 1st leg of the P4 and got back squat! I keep saying that one of these days I'm going to flat bet my singles but I seem to never pull the trigger. Repeating the same behavior over and over and expecting different results-yep, thats me!

[HUSKER55]

I would sympathize with you, but I have never done that....:rolleyes: :liar: :D

[Johnny V]

I'm interested in how others go about making a first cut and elimination of races that don't make sense to bet.

I'm taking way to long to go through a race card looking for those that I think have a shot.

Thanks for the help.
At first, I bypass maiden races with the majority being first time starters, races with very short fields and also turf races when there are many imports with no races in the US. After I am done with the races I am concentrating on, I will sometimes go back and look over those passed races if I have the time or inclination to do so.

[thespaah]

I'm interested in how others go about making a first cut and elimination of races that don't make sense to bet.

I'm taking way to long to go through a race card looking for those that I think have a shot.

Thanks for the help.
Races where the fields are short. Less than 7 with a min of three horses than can win.
These races have little if any value play potential.
Races with a field of first time starters where even trainer stats are of little help.
Maiden claimers where the ML on three or more horses is under 3-1.
I usually toss odds on favs in maiden claimers because the public is usually wrong. But if there are a couple or three, I deem the race a "no" or "slow" play.
I just don't care for maiden claimers. Some people lick their chops on these. I stink at them.

[thaskalos]

"Sometimes, a player's handicapping style goes a long way in determining what types of races the player will favor or avoid".

So it might be useful to discuss ways to analyze your results to find your strengths first?
A discussion of ways for the player to keep good records for proper analysis of data might be in order.
Is it more important to find contenders or eliminate horses based on your method or methods?
Finding a way to make sense of wagers you have placed and trending the data to find "weak spots" in public opinion would also be a good discussion point.
Contrast what Dave said about his way of finding the right path to start vs someone that specializes in maidens and turf. Both paths are right based on what your have committed your initial instinct to, and/or what you find through crunching databases. It would be interesting to see how some members chose what are the best methods for them and how they go about substantiating their beliefs with hard data. Is it gut or data?

When you are a win-bettor...then eliminating non-contenders is a pretty straight-forward procedure. When you bet the vertical exotics like I do...then it gets much more complicated than that. Horses who have little chance to win can easily sneak into the minor placings of a trifecta or a super.

In my own play, I can't afford to eliminate any but the most obvious non-contenders at the beginning of the handicapping process. Only later, when the business of rating the horses individually is well under way, do the contenders and the non-contenders really reveal themselves.

Life is not easy for the vertical exotics bettor.