bgbootha
08-18-2013, 01:58 AM
Being up here in the beautiful Northwest we don’t get to see much graded stakes action in person, but the one day a year when we do, we do it right. Emerald Downs will be full and the mountain should be out tomorrow just in time for some great racing in Auburn, WA.
Here is my look at all 11 races for tomorrow’s Longacres Mile day. And just to stress, these are my personal plays, not the plays directly from our sheets.
Race 1 (6.5f ) 1>5-4
1 POPULAR PICK should be the one to beat here and may be the odds on favorite. A double positive angle on our sheets and doesn’t seem to get much competition to challenge here. 5 EXPENSES PAID Has the speed to be near the front coming into the stretch but not sure he can hold on. If the weather gets crazy (we are in Western Washington), this is an autoplay in the slop. 4 REAL PREMIUM another horse that may challenge for the lead early, and try to hold off the 1 coming down the stretch.
Race 2 (6f ) 8>2-5-7
8 WAR WIZARD may get a nice run on a soft pace and could get the perfect trip around this track at 6f. 2 WINDSHADOWS highest late pace model and a double positive angle who may get the best chance of the bunch trying to come on late. 5 EVERYBODY KNOW double drop in class for no apparent reason and will be coming from off the pace. 7 KAITLANS SONG Drop in class here and should be a part of the exotics, but may have a chance coming from the rear at a nice price.
Race 3 (5.5f ) 2>1-4-6
2 ROYAL TALE coming off a great 2nd place run his first time out and a strong workout last week, clearly the best in the field. 1 NO CLAIM WILL DO first time starter with the right attributes to cause some havoc his first time out. 4 INKEY MOOEY best name in the field and quite possible the best pedigree as well for this first timer. 6 TRICK OR RETREAT never will understand why you put ‘retreat’ in your horses name, but another first time starter with the chance to impress.
Race 4 (6.5f ) 2-4-6-9-5
The most wide open race of the day. 2 ROXY SKYLAR double positive angle and should be in prime position with a good run down the stretch, and has the numbers to finish strong at a nice price. 4 LIZZY LASS another double positive who should be involved in the late charge toward the line. 6 SMOKIN BADGE the best late pace in the race and should be coming on strong late toward a heavy pace. 9 DENIM AND DIAMOND another horse that should be mid pack coming around the turn and will have every opportunity to run down the leaders. 5 A LURIE GIRL moving Rt2Sprint and should be on or near the lead if he comes back from a long layoff in form.
Race 5 (6f ) 2-6-8>1-3
2 RAINIER MISSILE needs to return to form, and if he does he will be tough to beat. But failed to show much of anything last time out and drops in class here today. 6 BUDS A FLYIN has shown the best speed of this field and could be in the right spot coming around the turn to take this one down. 8 BID FOR PRIDE has double positive angle, drops in class and moves Rt2Sprint to make for an interesting chance here. 1 JUST ZOOM WILL DO is an interesting horse that has been claimed 5 times in the last year so one should assume trainers see some talent and you can’t leave him out of your horizontals. 3 STEALTH ATTACK huge late speed in this field and a huge money line make for an interesting chance here if the pace quickens a must include in your verticals.
Race 6 (9f ) 6-1>2-7 Emerald Distaff
6 EVELYN’S DANCER comes in from just up north in Canada as Hastings top female this year and will go head to head with 1 EXCLUSIVE DIVA who is Emerald Downs’ top female. These two are going to put up quite a match race that I can’t wait to see. I give the edge to Evelyn’s Dancer because of the pace model and she should be up front which tends to run well at Emerald Downs. 2 EZ KITTY hasn’t shown the distance and would need to show the pop here to get up over the other two. 7 WANDO WOMAN will be flying down late and will need to get the perfect trip and pace to be a factor, but will be a part of all of my verticals here.
Race 7 (8.5f ) 7>9
7 CENTURY UNION is my best bet single of the day, he should get the perfect pace scenario and will have every opportunity to wire this field. The distance shouldn’t be a problem and neither will most of this field. 9 LADY ARAGORN has a huge advantage in Strong Finish category of our sheets, if the 7 can’t hold it will be the 9 coming hard down the stretch to catch him.
Race 8 (8f ) 11>3-6-5>10 Longacres Mile
11 MR BOWLING his last two races have probably been good enough to win this race, and if he can keep form he will have every chance to take this down at a good price. 3 POLITICALLYCORRECT a great run his last time out at Saratoga and another horse that can win without improving from his last time out. 6 JEBRICA has the highest strong finish rating on our sheets and has improved each of his last 3 races heading into this one. Add a strong workout and this horse should have a decent run coming down the stretch. 5 STRYKER PHD the name alone means something up here near Joint Base Lewis McChord and this horse should be coming on strong down the stretch with a double positive angle. 10 HERBIE D is the top pick on our sheets, but I am not sure he has the late speed to hold on to this race and be there at the end. Will probably be involved in the money, but needs to improve to be involved in the winners circle.
Race 9 (8f ) 1-6>4
1 LIBERTY LAKE will be a short price and rightfully so and may get the perfect trip behind a tough pace set by the 3 and the 7. 6 SHE’S STELLA MARIA a great double positive angle and if anyone has a chance to beat the 1 its this one. 4 DINER’S DIVA Another horse who should be just off the pace and will have a chance to take it, but will need to improve from previous starts to win here.
Race 10 (8f ) 6-1-4>2
6 CANDY FOR DEBBIE has a great track record here on the Emerald Downs dirt and should look to return to form coming back to a track where it dominated previously. 1 ROCKY’S QUEST is coming off a great work out and has really liked this distance in the past, the top pick on our board and the money line favorite may be an underlay come post time. 4 I KEEP SAYING moves up in class and stretches out to a mile, but this horse has won 4 in a row at the sprint level and you can’t ignore him in your verticals at what could be a nice price with the other two taking a great deal of the betting money. 2 DEACON SPEAKIN double positive keeps him on my sheet, but a less than impressive 8 wins in 62 tries makes me want to cross him off.
Race 11 (8f ) 4-1>3
The only reason this race is betable is because all of these horses stink. Seriously if all the days horses ran at once, I think these seven would come in last. 4 THIRSTY FOR MORE is coming off two horrible trips and still ran races that may beat this field and is sitting at 10-1. 1 WHITE RIVER PIRATE is another horse coming off a tough trip around the track his last time out and may break his maiden if he can stay clean for 8f. 3 FIREBENDER has the best Strong Finish rating and qualifies as a double positive, he could be there coming around the turn and have a chance to win this one.
Here is my look at all 11 races for tomorrow’s Longacres Mile day. And just to stress, these are my personal plays, not the plays directly from our sheets.
Race 1 (6.5f ) 1>5-4
1 POPULAR PICK should be the one to beat here and may be the odds on favorite. A double positive angle on our sheets and doesn’t seem to get much competition to challenge here. 5 EXPENSES PAID Has the speed to be near the front coming into the stretch but not sure he can hold on. If the weather gets crazy (we are in Western Washington), this is an autoplay in the slop. 4 REAL PREMIUM another horse that may challenge for the lead early, and try to hold off the 1 coming down the stretch.
Race 2 (6f ) 8>2-5-7
8 WAR WIZARD may get a nice run on a soft pace and could get the perfect trip around this track at 6f. 2 WINDSHADOWS highest late pace model and a double positive angle who may get the best chance of the bunch trying to come on late. 5 EVERYBODY KNOW double drop in class for no apparent reason and will be coming from off the pace. 7 KAITLANS SONG Drop in class here and should be a part of the exotics, but may have a chance coming from the rear at a nice price.
Race 3 (5.5f ) 2>1-4-6
2 ROYAL TALE coming off a great 2nd place run his first time out and a strong workout last week, clearly the best in the field. 1 NO CLAIM WILL DO first time starter with the right attributes to cause some havoc his first time out. 4 INKEY MOOEY best name in the field and quite possible the best pedigree as well for this first timer. 6 TRICK OR RETREAT never will understand why you put ‘retreat’ in your horses name, but another first time starter with the chance to impress.
Race 4 (6.5f ) 2-4-6-9-5
The most wide open race of the day. 2 ROXY SKYLAR double positive angle and should be in prime position with a good run down the stretch, and has the numbers to finish strong at a nice price. 4 LIZZY LASS another double positive who should be involved in the late charge toward the line. 6 SMOKIN BADGE the best late pace in the race and should be coming on strong late toward a heavy pace. 9 DENIM AND DIAMOND another horse that should be mid pack coming around the turn and will have every opportunity to run down the leaders. 5 A LURIE GIRL moving Rt2Sprint and should be on or near the lead if he comes back from a long layoff in form.
Race 5 (6f ) 2-6-8>1-3
2 RAINIER MISSILE needs to return to form, and if he does he will be tough to beat. But failed to show much of anything last time out and drops in class here today. 6 BUDS A FLYIN has shown the best speed of this field and could be in the right spot coming around the turn to take this one down. 8 BID FOR PRIDE has double positive angle, drops in class and moves Rt2Sprint to make for an interesting chance here. 1 JUST ZOOM WILL DO is an interesting horse that has been claimed 5 times in the last year so one should assume trainers see some talent and you can’t leave him out of your horizontals. 3 STEALTH ATTACK huge late speed in this field and a huge money line make for an interesting chance here if the pace quickens a must include in your verticals.
Race 6 (9f ) 6-1>2-7 Emerald Distaff
6 EVELYN’S DANCER comes in from just up north in Canada as Hastings top female this year and will go head to head with 1 EXCLUSIVE DIVA who is Emerald Downs’ top female. These two are going to put up quite a match race that I can’t wait to see. I give the edge to Evelyn’s Dancer because of the pace model and she should be up front which tends to run well at Emerald Downs. 2 EZ KITTY hasn’t shown the distance and would need to show the pop here to get up over the other two. 7 WANDO WOMAN will be flying down late and will need to get the perfect trip and pace to be a factor, but will be a part of all of my verticals here.
Race 7 (8.5f ) 7>9
7 CENTURY UNION is my best bet single of the day, he should get the perfect pace scenario and will have every opportunity to wire this field. The distance shouldn’t be a problem and neither will most of this field. 9 LADY ARAGORN has a huge advantage in Strong Finish category of our sheets, if the 7 can’t hold it will be the 9 coming hard down the stretch to catch him.
Race 8 (8f ) 11>3-6-5>10 Longacres Mile
11 MR BOWLING his last two races have probably been good enough to win this race, and if he can keep form he will have every chance to take this down at a good price. 3 POLITICALLYCORRECT a great run his last time out at Saratoga and another horse that can win without improving from his last time out. 6 JEBRICA has the highest strong finish rating on our sheets and has improved each of his last 3 races heading into this one. Add a strong workout and this horse should have a decent run coming down the stretch. 5 STRYKER PHD the name alone means something up here near Joint Base Lewis McChord and this horse should be coming on strong down the stretch with a double positive angle. 10 HERBIE D is the top pick on our sheets, but I am not sure he has the late speed to hold on to this race and be there at the end. Will probably be involved in the money, but needs to improve to be involved in the winners circle.
Race 9 (8f ) 1-6>4
1 LIBERTY LAKE will be a short price and rightfully so and may get the perfect trip behind a tough pace set by the 3 and the 7. 6 SHE’S STELLA MARIA a great double positive angle and if anyone has a chance to beat the 1 its this one. 4 DINER’S DIVA Another horse who should be just off the pace and will have a chance to take it, but will need to improve from previous starts to win here.
Race 10 (8f ) 6-1-4>2
6 CANDY FOR DEBBIE has a great track record here on the Emerald Downs dirt and should look to return to form coming back to a track where it dominated previously. 1 ROCKY’S QUEST is coming off a great work out and has really liked this distance in the past, the top pick on our board and the money line favorite may be an underlay come post time. 4 I KEEP SAYING moves up in class and stretches out to a mile, but this horse has won 4 in a row at the sprint level and you can’t ignore him in your verticals at what could be a nice price with the other two taking a great deal of the betting money. 2 DEACON SPEAKIN double positive keeps him on my sheet, but a less than impressive 8 wins in 62 tries makes me want to cross him off.
Race 11 (8f ) 4-1>3
The only reason this race is betable is because all of these horses stink. Seriously if all the days horses ran at once, I think these seven would come in last. 4 THIRSTY FOR MORE is coming off two horrible trips and still ran races that may beat this field and is sitting at 10-1. 1 WHITE RIVER PIRATE is another horse coming off a tough trip around the track his last time out and may break his maiden if he can stay clean for 8f. 3 FIREBENDER has the best Strong Finish rating and qualifies as a double positive, he could be there coming around the turn and have a chance to win this one.