Pocono August 17th

[willphorse]

Will post PPE's for all horses. Tonight, the true power of PPE's will be discovered! Race 12, PPE's have CaptainTreacherous getting BEAT!

Good Luck Everybody


Pocono

R1- 6-3-1
1-105, 2-103, 3-108, 4-102, 5-104, 6- 110, 7-102

R2- 5-7-4
1-91, 2-97, 3-91, 4-97, 5-100, 6-95, 7-100, 8-95, 9-97

R3- 3-7-2
1-83, 2-84, 3-87, 4-76, 5-73. 6-71, 7-85, 8-78, 9-73

R4- 4-2-8
1-101, 2-103, 3-95, 4-108, 5-100, 6-102, 7-94, 8-103, 9-99

R5- 2-5-8
1-87, 2-98, 3-88, 4-96, 5-97, 6-94, 7-92, 8-96

R6- 1-6-4
1-102, 2-99, 3-88, 4-100, 5-98, 6-101, 7-99, 8-96, 9-100

R7- 8-6-1
1-87, 2-77, 3-85, 4-87, 5-83, 6-89, 7-82, 8-90, 9-79

R8- 3-5-2
1-105, 2-108, 3-110, 4-100, 5-108, 6-106, 7-108, 8-105, 9-107

R9- 5-1-9
1-111, 2-105, 3-110, 4-106, 5-112, 6-108, 7-108, 8-103, 9-110

R10- 9-6-7
1-102, 2-100, 3-104, 4-90, 5-98, 6-105, 7-104, 8-102, 9-107

R11- 8-5-4
1-87, 2-85, 3-72, 4-88, 5-90, 6-86, 7-85, 8-92, 9-82

R12- 1-4-8
1-112, 2-108, 3-106, 4-112, 5-107, 6-108, 7-108, 8-110, 9-107

R13- 5-6-1
1-82, 2-64, 3-74, 4-76, 5-87, 6-84, 7-82, 8-68

R14- 2-6-9
1-94, 2-103, 3-83, 4-91, 5-96, 6-101, 7-98, 8-94, 9-99

[willphorse]

After some research on the Standard Deviation of Form/SR Ratios, I have come to a "contender conclusion" based on the mean slope of all races thus far.

I have ran this for all races I have posted, and my conclusion is that

1: Any horse within 5 Pts of top selection is a "contender".
2: The more "contenders", the more likelihood of a long shot winner.
3: If there are 2-3 or even 4 "contenders" the likelihood of an exacta or Tri increases significantly!!

More studies will be done and more conclusions to follow!

[mrroyboy]

Ok
So you are saying if there are 2-4contenders play the exacta or tri? Box them??

[wiffleball whizz]

Breeders crown in August.....I'll be gambling

[willphorse]

Ok
So you are saying if there are 2-4contenders play the exacta or tri? Box them??

I'm saying if there are only 2-3 or even 4 within 4-5 Pts of top selection then yes, the odds (and surprisingly ROI) are in your favor!

You can even track it for a few days if you want to see how it does, but so far, a significant profit AND great hit percentage!

[willphorse]

R1- Top Selection Winner $2.60, 1-2 Exacta $4.90, 1-2-3 Tri $39.10
R2- Top Selection Winner $2.20
R3- Nothing... Top Selection Placed @14-1
R4- Top Selection Winner $2.80
R5- Nothing... Top Selection Placed @ 6/5
R6- 2nd Selection Winner $4.40, (Top Selection Finished 4th)
R7- Nothing, Top Selection Showed @ 15-1
R8- Nothing, Top Selection Placed @ 5/2
R9- Nothing, Top Selection Showed @ 5/2
R10- NOTHING
R11- 2nd Selection Winner $10.20
R12- Nothing
R13- 3rd Selection Winner $6.60, 3-1 Ex $5.80, Top Selection Placed @ 2/5
R14- Nothing, Top Selection Placed @ 4/5



I'll post some stats tomorrow or Monday. Hopefully somebody can help me out a little >:/

[Ray2000]

Keep'er going willp, looks promising...

You probably know this but I'll post it for the "no-math-please" readers.

The topic "How many races do I need to test my results?" has been covered ad nauseam at PACEAD
I'll just put a quick summary here.

The question has to be asked in the right way, (for the stats people :) ).

"How many races do I need to be (90%, 95%, 99%?) sure my results are significant within a margin of error of say ±X% ?"

For strike rates the answer is straight forward, for ROI it gets more complicated,
Several tests are used for ROIs, Chi-Squared** "Archie" is a good one.


As for an observed Win/Loss Strike Rate of a sample you can use:

Number of Races needed = SRate times (1 minus SRate) times "Z" all divided by ("X" times "X")
where
"Z" = 2.71 to be 90% sure
....= 3.84 to be 95% sure
....= 6.63 to be 99% sure

and
"X" = the margin of error you'll accept, say ±5%

Example:
For an observed SRate of 35% and you want to be 95% confident that the SRate is significant to ±5%

You'll need ...

(0.35 x (1 - 0.35) x 3.84) / (0.05 x 0.05) = 350 races

to tighten that to be.. 35% ±3% needs 970 races :eek:

Long road ahead...Good Luck



**
http://www.hoof.demon.co.uk/archie.html

[willphorse]

R1- Top Selection Winner $2.60, 1-2 Exacta $4.90, 1-2-3 Tri $39.10
R2- Top Selection Winner $2.20
R3- Nothing... Top Selection Placed @14-1
R4- Top Selection Winner $2.80
R5- Nothing... Top Selection Placed @ 6/5
R6- 2nd Selection Winner $4.40, (Top Selection Finished 4th)
R7- Nothing, Top Selection Showed @ 15-1
R8- Nothing, Top Selection Placed @ 5/2
R9- Nothing, Top Selection Showed @ 5/2
R10- NOTHING
R11- 2nd Selection Winner $10.20
R12- Nothing
R13- 3rd Selection Winner $6.60, 3-1 Ex $5.80, Top Selection Placed @ 2/5
R14- Nothing, Top Selection Placed @ 4/5



I'll post some stats tomorrow or Monday. Hopefully somebody can help me out a little >:/


For starters, and to give a good base, here's the stats on the TOP Selection thus far

96-36-18-15

Win %- 38%
Win-Place %- 56%
Win-Place-Show %- 72%

Flat Bet Profit only, slight loss W-P

Also, going back through, it looks like, instead of "boxing" the top 3 or 4, but Keying Top Selection for 1st and 2nd With 2nd and 3rd Selections and then using ALL in 3rd (In races where only 3 or 4 horses are within 5 Pts of Top Selection) is EXTREMELY profitable!!

Another nice idea I'm starting to follow is Keying Top Selection with Top 3 with ALL for $0.10 Superfectas. So far this is also EXTREMELY profitable.

Will post some wagering strategies with the selection, and will elaborate a bit more on how to "use" the PPE's in a better, more advantageous way.


More to come...