willphorse
08-14-2013, 05:01 PM
Tonight will be a bit different. I will post not only the top 3 PPE horses, but will also list the ratings of ALL horses to show the work, as well as lay the ground work for improvements to be made.
1 or 2 points mean they are pretty close. The more spread out, the more likely a horse is to outperform the lower rating.
I comprised these ratings using speed to form analysis as I do stocks with Volume to Time ratio. Basically, I use standard deviation from race to race to come up with a form number. If a horse is likely to stay consistent, the SD number is lower, which increases the form number. That is then put into a ratio with the speed rating, which is comprised based on individual 1/4 times averaged, then Standard Deviated for all horses raced on that day. The ratio is then put to a PPE rating. A horses' rating changes from race to race because of the standard deviation, average, and SR averages change (although slightly) which will cause the ratio to change, and the overall PPE changes.
R1- 6-2-7
1-79, 2-84, 3- 68, 4-82, 5-77, 6-86, 7-83, 8-81, 9-80
R2- 5-9-8
1-79, 2-88, 3-83, 4-70, 5-91, 6-87, 7-84, 8-90, 9-90
R3- 2-5-1
1-61, 2-69, 3-59, 4-49, 5-65, 6-58
R4- 4-2-1
1-62, 2-66, 3- 64, 4-68, 5-55, 6-61, 7-55
R5- 5-2-4
1-86, 2- 90, 3- 89, 4- 90, 5- 94, 6- 88, 7-83, 8- 86, 9- 87
R6- 4-2-6
1-63, 2-70, 3-48, 4-72, 5-55, 6-63
R7- 6-2-9
1-90, 2- 96, 3-82, 4-94, 5-93, 6-97, 7-94, 8-89, 9-95
R8- 2-1-4
1-76, 2-81, 3-55, 4-68, 5-57, 6-54, 7-62
R9- 4-1-6
1-94, 2-93, 3-90, 4-97, 5-91, 6-93, 7-84, 8-92
R10- 1-8-7
1-100, 2-86, 3-93, 4-92, 5-94, 6-95, 7-97, 8-99
R11- 2-7-5
1-75, 2-85, 3-70, 4-67, 5-78, 6-71, 7-80, 8-75, 9-77
R12- 8-1-9
1-100, 2-94, 3-96, 4-99, 5-96, 6-98, 7-93, 8-104, 9-99
R13- 3-4-8
1-88, 2-91, 3-92, 4-92, 5-88, 6-86, 7-87, 8-91, 9-84
R14- 4-2-7
1-74, 2-83, 3-77, 4-88, 5-81, 6-77, 7-82, 8-75, 9-81
R15- 1-8-3
1-83, 2-71, 3-80, 4- 66, 5-75, 6-78, 7-58, 8-80, 9-70
R16- 2-3-1
1-70, 2-73, 3-72, 4-64, 5-60, 6-65, 7-63, 8-69, 9-70
1 or 2 points mean they are pretty close. The more spread out, the more likely a horse is to outperform the lower rating.
I comprised these ratings using speed to form analysis as I do stocks with Volume to Time ratio. Basically, I use standard deviation from race to race to come up with a form number. If a horse is likely to stay consistent, the SD number is lower, which increases the form number. That is then put into a ratio with the speed rating, which is comprised based on individual 1/4 times averaged, then Standard Deviated for all horses raced on that day. The ratio is then put to a PPE rating. A horses' rating changes from race to race because of the standard deviation, average, and SR averages change (although slightly) which will cause the ratio to change, and the overall PPE changes.
R1- 6-2-7
1-79, 2-84, 3- 68, 4-82, 5-77, 6-86, 7-83, 8-81, 9-80
R2- 5-9-8
1-79, 2-88, 3-83, 4-70, 5-91, 6-87, 7-84, 8-90, 9-90
R3- 2-5-1
1-61, 2-69, 3-59, 4-49, 5-65, 6-58
R4- 4-2-1
1-62, 2-66, 3- 64, 4-68, 5-55, 6-61, 7-55
R5- 5-2-4
1-86, 2- 90, 3- 89, 4- 90, 5- 94, 6- 88, 7-83, 8- 86, 9- 87
R6- 4-2-6
1-63, 2-70, 3-48, 4-72, 5-55, 6-63
R7- 6-2-9
1-90, 2- 96, 3-82, 4-94, 5-93, 6-97, 7-94, 8-89, 9-95
R8- 2-1-4
1-76, 2-81, 3-55, 4-68, 5-57, 6-54, 7-62
R9- 4-1-6
1-94, 2-93, 3-90, 4-97, 5-91, 6-93, 7-84, 8-92
R10- 1-8-7
1-100, 2-86, 3-93, 4-92, 5-94, 6-95, 7-97, 8-99
R11- 2-7-5
1-75, 2-85, 3-70, 4-67, 5-78, 6-71, 7-80, 8-75, 9-77
R12- 8-1-9
1-100, 2-94, 3-96, 4-99, 5-96, 6-98, 7-93, 8-104, 9-99
R13- 3-4-8
1-88, 2-91, 3-92, 4-92, 5-88, 6-86, 7-87, 8-91, 9-84
R14- 4-2-7
1-74, 2-83, 3-77, 4-88, 5-81, 6-77, 7-82, 8-75, 9-81
R15- 1-8-3
1-83, 2-71, 3-80, 4- 66, 5-75, 6-78, 7-58, 8-80, 9-70
R16- 2-3-1
1-70, 2-73, 3-72, 4-64, 5-60, 6-65, 7-63, 8-69, 9-70