Pocono August 13th

[willphorse]

Using what I'm calling "Power Performance Evaluation" again for tonight's card. If this continues to do as well as I'm expecting and hoping, I will elaborate on specifications later this week/weekend.

Win bet on top selection Only tonight. Again, however, will post top 3 for scratch purposes.

R1- 4-2-6
R2- 3-4-7
R3- 5-1-7
R4- 5-4-2
R5- 3-5-7
R6- 7-2-5
R7- 2-9-3
R8- 4-3-7
R9- 9-8-1
R10- 3-4-7
R11- 9-2-4
R12- 1-6-4
R13- 9-4-5
R14- 6-5-1
R15- 1-8-2
R16- 7-1-6

Good Luck

[LottaKash]

Lotsa 2YO's Will, almost all of the races on tonite's card, it seems.....

Does your evaluations allow for this age and classification ?

The reason I ask is, I don't personally handicap the 2's the way I would most of the other classifications, the numbers and angles are different enough to be unreliable for my wagering purposes....I use a different point of view with the 2's...

[willphorse]

Lotsa 2YO's Will, almost all of the races on tonite's card, it seems.....

Does your evaluations allow for this age and classification ?

The reason I ask is, I don't personally handicap the 2's the way I would most of the other classifications, the numbers and angles are different enough to be unreliable for my wagering purposes....I use a different point of view with the 2's...

Yes sir it does. My PPE's support 1st timers, 2YO's... Everything. As long as the horse has a qual in the pp's, a PPE rating is established. It has done well with 2YO's and 3YO's... Much better it seems than older claimers...

But we'll see tonight, as its a new day...

[LottaKash]

Yes sir it does. My PPE's support 1st timers, 2YO's... Everything. As long as the horse has a qual in the pp's, a PPE rating is established. It has done well with 2YO's and 3YO's... Much better it seems than older claimers...

But we'll see tonight, as its a new day...

Sounds very promising Will, I am eager to see more of it....:jump:

[Overcall]

Will

Good job at Tioga Sunday...thought i was doing good with 6 winners...believe you had 8! Keep up the good work.

If your interested in power, you should check out Pocono's entries for
this Saturday nite...wow could be better than the BC in October.

http://racing.ustrotting.com/chart.aspx

[willphorse]

Will

Good job at Tioga Sunday...thought i was doing good with 6 winners...believe you had 8! Keep up the good work.

If your interested in power, you should check out Pocono's entries for
this Saturday nite...wow could be better than the BC in October.

http://racing.ustrotting.com/chart.aspx


Great Job! Tioga can be tough at times!! My power ratings don't show WHO WILL WIN, but rather HiddenForm/Potential power. With a good trip, a horse ranked 1 or 2 should win, but a 3 isn't out of it with a perfect trip. Trying to correlate ratings with performances. As you may have seen, many ranked are usually VERY close at wire even if they don't win. Sometimes a horse ranked 2nd or 3rd may be a great backup wager at 10-15-20 to 1. Even a W-P-S maybe. I'm really learning how to "analyze" the ratings. I'm using the same formulas as I do analyzing stock movement, and I "created" a formula that really has helped tremendously in both worlds!

Really hope to have enough data to elaborate this weekend!!!

[willphorse]

Results


R1- 4-2-6...2nd pick wins $37.20
R2- 3-4-7...top pick wins $6.40
R3- 5-1-7...3rd pick wins $20.00
R4- 5-4-2
R5- 3-5-7
R6- 7-2-5...top pick wins $6.40
R7- 2-9-3...top pick wins $17.20
R8- 4-3-7...top pick wins $4.20
R9- 9-8-1
R10- 3-4-7
R11- 9-2-4
R12- 1-6-4...3rd pick wins $21.00
R13- 9-4-5...2nd pick wins $11.20
R14- 6-5-1...3rd pick wins $3.60
R15- 1-8-2...top pick wins $5.60
R16- 7-1-6...3rd pick wins $3.40


Top Pick 5/15...$32 in, $39.80 Back, Profit $7.80
Top 2 Picks 7/15...$64 in, $88.20 Back, Profit $24.20
Top 3 picks 11/15...$96 in, $136.20 Back, Profit $40.20

[Ray2000]

willp

You're off to a great start and I hope you're on to something.

Assuming all comments are welcome, I would strongly recommend against betting more than one horse in any race to Win. Better off putting $6 on the nose than $2 on three horses. Better yet is to box in the Exacta.

Your system could act differently, but I've tried several Win systems and the "Multi-Horse, Win Betting" performance always ends up looking like the one below. This is one of the Robot's best Win efforts over a 4 year period, 100,000+ races, and pick1 betting is much better for ROI%
Single horse in Black (-2.7%), Betting top 2 in blue (-5.7%)and Top 3 in Green (-8.7%)

Good Luck and we'll be watching with interest.

[lamboguy]

willp

You're off to a great start and I hope you're on to something.

Assuming all comments are welcome, I would strongly recommend against betting more than one horse in any race to Win. Better off putting $6 on the nose than $2 on three horses. Better yet is to box in the Exacta.

Your system could act differently, but I've tried several Win systems and the "Multi-Horse, Win Betting" performance always ends up looking like the one below. This is one of the Robot's best Win efforts over a 4 year period, 100,000+ races, and pick1 betting is much better for ROI%
Single horse in Black (-2.7%), Betting top 2 in blue (-5.7%)and Top 3 in Green (-8.7%)

Good Luck and we'll be watching with interest.i agree, i don't think a 3 box exacta would look to much better either

[willphorse]

willp

You're off to a great start and I hope you're on to something.

Assuming all comments are welcome, I would strongly recommend against betting more than one horse in any race to Win. Better off putting $6 on the nose than $2 on three horses. Better yet is to box in the Exacta.

Your system could act differently, but I've tried several Win systems and the "Multi-Horse, Win Betting" performance always ends up looking like the one below. This is one of the Robot's best Win efforts over a 4 year period, 100,000+ races, and pick1 betting is much better for ROI%
Single horse in Black (-2.7%), Betting top 2 in blue (-5.7%)and Top 3 in Green (-8.7%)

Good Luck and we'll be watching with interest.


Thanks Ray. I completely agree with your statistics. I personally don't use the Ratings as a system, but more of a handicapping guide. I narrow down the selections to 3 using PPE's. then I handicap between those 3, unless 1 horse has standout PPE's, then I won't even handicap.

Usually, I try to find overlays. I'd rather bet a 3rd selection W-P at 10-15 to 1 than bet a top selection at 3/5, especially if only 1 or 2 pt difference.

Tonight, for Pocono, I will post the actual ratings so many can see the pt differences.

Today at Philly, R6- Paparazzi Kid (8) was a HUGE overlay. Was 1 pt lower than top selection, and yet was 4 Pts higher than 3rd selection... Paid $30.20.

I look forward to any feedback as well as ideas from anybody! Thank You All!

[mrroyboy]

That's real good stuff Will. Keep at it