Anybody read "The Coffee Break Milionaire"

[Hosshead]

Received mail order offer for "The Coffee Break Millionaire" from Heritage House. Book is 175 pgs. and deals with form cycles /condition (last race within 25 days for all plays) etc.
Anybody know anything about it?

[Figman]

Mike Warren (Lasky)?

[takeout]

Is he still around? :D

[shanta]

i got the ad too. dont know anything about it. oops time for my coffee break:eek: Richie

[DealMe3]

I had gotten that ad, too. Glad to know that I'm not the only one. There's something familiar about the author's name? I've done searches on his name everywhere, but came up with nothing. Because it's been awhile since I had bought a handicapping book; I went ahead and ordered it.

The last handicapping book I bought "Calibration Handicapping" by James Lehane and it worked out very well for me.

I'm of the school that the more angles a person knows, the better the capper. I'll post back once I get the book and do some workouts with his (Tim Winn?) methods from past issues of the DRF.

[dav4463]

I received the ad also. It is so well-written that I may just buy it myself ! I actually enjoyed reading the advertisement !

[Hosshead]

DealMe3/dav4463, Looking forward to your report. I know what you mean about a well written ad, I almost went for the lure, until I realized his name was Bill Winn ! <g> But who knows, maybe there IS something usefull in there someplace. Just another rock to lift, and look under.

[dav4463]

Sometimes you just have to give a guy credit for sounding so down-to-earth ! I mean you almost believe this guy is really slaving away at his job and working on the racing form during his coffee break and then realized his dream of becoming a millionaire at the track ! It's the story we all long for...telling the boss..."I'm outta here !" Great story, tugs at the heartstrings ! I'm ordering it this week !

[John]

I'll be interested in your outcome with the Coffee thing. Good luck guys.

[DealMe3]

I just gave it a quick read through. It seems that he explained his methods in as few as 20-30 pages. The bulk of the book is going over the DRF PP's as he explained each of his racing cycle.

Selections are pre-qualified by first racing less than 25 days.

Horses are not rising more than 30% in class. And by noting the purse amount of today's race and comparing it with the horse's lifetime average purse. Lifetime races / Lifetime $.

And by making sure the jockey has ridden this horse prior.

After that you would look at the pp of the horse and see if it fits into any of the 5 racing cycles. I won't repeat them for fear of violating any copyrights.

I'll have to do some workouts with past issues of the DRF and check out how good/bad the ROI is. He does advocate making across the board wagering of $20-$40-$80 which is already setting off some red flags. I've found that across the board wagering produces some low ROI's. But, I'll keep and open mind and test it out.

Maybe someone else can do the same and we can compare notes on this board?

BTW, a fellow capper caught me reading this book. He saw the title and gave me this "oh, come on!" look. All I could say, "I like the title!"

[John]

Well DEAL,

Let us know if it is" the real Deal ".

[BIG RED]

I recieved that flyer also. I don't even read them any more, right in the trash. But something caught my eye this time, Heritage House. So I read it and still trashed it. Sounded to phony. But ten years ago or so, I actually bought a system book from them, I forget the author, but it was very simple, worth the price because I still use parts of it today. I think it was system for the century, something like that. I probably have it lying around here somewhere.

Even if what they tout isn't true, you sometimes fibble with it, and get atleast one good piece of info out of it.

[dav4463]

I'm still waiting on my book to come in the mail. I could have used some of that "millionaire" money this weekend !

[John]

YAH DAV, What happen to DEAL, HE/SHE was to let us know how how he made out.

[dav4463]

I don't know ! Hope she/he made a million so I'll have something to look forward to ! I'm going to try it out on paper for a while on some races I played the last couple of weeks. I should get it soon.

[Hosshead]

Dav, I hope you get it soon, I'm getting anxious! And my coffee is getting cold.

[John]

Horsshead, funny thing ,but when you and I waite on somethng.It never happens.

[dav4463]

I received the book today. I am currently testing a few races. I admit that I am usually very skeptical of any racing method that comes along. This one is very good at first look. I see a lot of logic in everything in the book. It focuses on five patterns, but they are not really angle plays only, because there are other factors that need to be present to have a play and most of the time, you are on a horse or horses that really have a shot to win. The first few races I've looked at did produce some winners and a couple at nice prices. I don't completely agree with the money management system, but I do understand how it may work. So far so good, I will give a better review of plays using real money this weekend. All in all, whether I make any money or not, I enjoyed reading this book....but I confess, I love to read about and try racing methods. This book does reinforce the "back to the basics" that many handicappers seem to forget. This book completely fits my "style" of handicapping, since I do not use software and it will definitely help me with my major problem...betting too many races !!! The book has already helped me to focus on the more playable races.... more to come....

[Hosshead]

Dav, Is it the type of method that can be checked out on a month or more of past DRF's and get some result stats(straight win betting) ?

[John]

Thanks for the info, Dave, good hunting.

[DealMe3]

I went through some past issues of the DRF (2 race Saturdays in October, November, December, January, Feburary and March). I selected the dates at random just to test the theories in CBM. It has produced a profit each Saturday. The average end of day ROI varied between 17% - 29%. The low ROI's are a result of making across the board wagers of $2-$4-$8 win/place/show.

The downside is that it did miss some of the longshot horses that I'm have hit using pace handicapping. This is because CBM has you deciding to play certain horses based on their class, and ignores the pace of the horse's last race. And I've found that longshot horses come in by running a strong pace, not class.

For a person that is handicapping by class and/or form; this book should be very helpful. It will give some teth for their current handicapping method. But, a word of warning, you really do need to follow Bill Winn's instructions. Even Winn cautioned using his pre-qualifications before playing any horse's race cycle.

It's also good in that a person will not fall into the trap of playing every race. While this book isn't for me; it's still a good book for someone.

[dav4463]

So far I've gone through seven racecards and currently show a profit of 22% ....I know it is only 7 racecards, but still a profit. I will have more later. I also picked a $44.00 longshot on my own that I missed with the Millionaire method. It wasn't based on pace though, it was a horse I liked off a lengthy layoff which wasn't playable with the method. It is a good book though, and fun to scan racecards that quickly and come up with some decent plays. Also the average odds of horses it picked is usually over 5-1 which suits my style. I hate playing chalk !

[Hosshead]

Thanks for the update , keep us posted as you run more races through the system. I'm not worried about missing $44 horses.
I'm assuming that your ROI is based on using the across the board wagering method. Was wondering a few things: Does straight win show a profit? Time wise, could you do say 10 tracks per day? Is there ANY subjective decisions, or is it completely mechanical ?

[shanta]

Originally posted by dav4463
So far I've gone through seven racecards and currently show a profit of 22% ....I know it is only 7 racecards, but still a profit. I will have more later. I also picked a $44.00 longshot on my own that I missed with the Millionaire method. It wasn't based on pace though, it was a horse I liked off a lengthy layoff which wasn't playable with the method. It is a good book though, and fun to scan racecards that quickly and come up with some decent plays. Also the average odds of horses it picked is usually over 5-1 which suits my style. I hate playing chalk !

yes Dave thanx very much for the update!
Richie:)

[John]

DAV4463 and DEALME3

Good job guys,interesting both of you show a profit. Maybe someone can invite Bill Winn on the board to answer some Questions

[dav4463]

I think the reason that there is so much potential here is that it is not completely mechanical. You do have to make your own decision about whether the horse fits today's class level or make a decision between two or three qualifiers in the same race. As for the speed of handicapping, you could easily do 10 tracks per day. I have a few plays tonight, I'll let you know how they did.

[andicap]

Seems more interesting than the usual system because of its
apparent reliance on form cycles, something you don't see very often in commercial methods.

A thought: Why in the world would anyone care if you missed a $44 horse if the method was profitable overall?? You think you're going to catch EVERY SINGLE longshot?

[jackad]

How does one contact the publishers of this system? Any URL, phone number or postal address?
Thanks.

[Hosshead]

Heritage House Sports Classic Library
244 Madison Avenue - #723
N.Y., N.Y. 10016-2817

[BillW]

http://www.jimhurley.net/products/heritage/index.asp

[Tom]

....of the Hurley Wheel fame?

[BillW]

Originally posted by Tom
....of the Hurley Wheel fame?

Dunno, never heard of him.

[dav4463]

I will post more detailed results this week, but this method is showing an outstanding profit this weekend at Delta Downs and Penn National.......too good to be true? I'm always skeptical, but so far so good ! This is one of the few methods I have seen that consistently picks higher odds horses who have a decent chance to win or at least hit the board.

[dav4463]

I received a letter today with a phone number asking for feedback on the Coffee Break Millionaire. I will mention paceadvantage.com and see if Bill Winn will post here and maybe answer questions or just talk racing. I will call Monday and they will get some positive feedback from me. They are going to have some other stuff available (booklets), and I will definitely be interested in what they have to say.

[dav4463]

One of the horses that the method picked on 3/26 paid $18.60 to place and $25.20 to show. At $20 to win, $40 to place, and $80 to show, that was a nice chunk of change !

[dav4463]

same day, had a winner paying $11.80 $6.40 $3.00 and another who placed paying $6.60 and $5.60 and one more who placed paying $4.60 and $3.60

[kingfin66]

Question to anybody who owns this book: How many pages; is it well written with good illustrations (DRF reprints); and bottom line - is it worth buying?

[Hosshead]

Deal Me3 said that out of the 175 pgs., only 20-30 describe the method. The rest (150pgs.?) are DRF pp's.

[dav4463]

Each of the five racing cycles are explained on one page. Then there are five examples from the DRF following each cycle. The author walks you through each race explaining exactly why the horse fits the racing cycle. Then the results of each race are shown. In my opinion, if you like to read about horseracing methods it is worth buying. I am enjoying it.

[kingfin66]

Deal Me3 said: "that out of the 175 pgs., only 20-30 describe the method. The rest (150pgs.?) are DRF pp's."

Indeed he did. I was up kind of late last night.

dav4463 said: "Each of the five racing cycles are explained on one page. Then there are five examples from the DRF following each cycle. The author walks you through each race explaining exactly why the horse fits the racing cycle. Then the results of each race are shown. In my opinion, if you like to read about horseracing methods it is worth buying. I am enjoying it."

I appreciate the info. I fall into the category of enjoying reading about handicapping methods. It sounds like there is something to be learned about racing cycles. Looks like I will be shelling out the dough.

Thanks.

[BeatTheChalk]

Curious about a few things :
1. Was the vendor in New York or Nevada or ?
2. Money back guarantee ?
3. Take credit cards ?
4. phone number for the vendor ?
I am new to the group .. and have seen as many mailing
pieces as anyone on the planet. I sold two systems back in the
late 80's Early 90's. The systems didnt work if you followed the
rules LOL .. however .. many buyers picked certain things that
they liked...and some of them even still like me !
Now as to copyrights : The courts ruled years ago that a
"system" can not be protected. That is not to say that it would
be honrable to tell us the rules :) One could change some small
part of the system .. and voila - a new system is born !
I have seen a few systems that work .. but normally not worth
the time and effort. Most systems are sold by a few large
systems mills in NY Nevada and maybe a few left in other areas.
Lastly .. What is the price of the system ? Cheers to all

[freeneasy]

if you got a system that can tell me when the favorite aint gonna win, then i wanna know all about it. and in exchange for such information i will personally come over, moe and rake your lawn, paint your fence, wash and wax your car, pick up your dry cleaning, stand on top of your roof and hold out your tv antenna, be your best friend, kidnap and dispose of all your enemies as well as anyone that you just dont happen to like, thank you very much. ;)

[BeatTheChalk]

Your post cracked me up so much ..that the dog has been
looking at me funny for hours. In certain races I am able to
say .. with a great deal of accuracy ..when the favorite will
lose. I have only tested about 150 events. So far so good..I
need about 350 more. When I get there I shall start posting
the information. Not every race not every track. It aint bad
so far :) ... I shall save your post for all time !! ...

[John]

Mitchell, or someone once said, Show me a race were all horses are under PAR and I will show you the losing favorite. LOL


FREE...funny post.

[BeatTheChalk]

When Dick made the remark about all of the horses " being
under par.." -- Setting it up for the Favorite to lose...Could
he have been promoting the Report on Pars ... by that guy
named PINES ? Just curious. LOL

[John]

NO ....I think he was saying if no horse can run to PAR. it is wide open....Maybe KITTS can post.he should know.

[headhawg]

I think Mitchell wrote that if no horse in a race could run to the pars for that class or run to the winning profiles, you have a "chaos" race. If I recall, he wrote that he would try to narrow the field down to 4 or 5 contenders and play exactas that were paying $100 or more. His logic was that the "worst" contender was a equally likely to win as the "best" contender.

And I think he wrote that Kitts used this method to cash big and buy a car?? Maybe I'm thinking of someone else.

This is the situation (chaos) that I will primarily play exotics, unless I can single a horse on top.

HH

[wolsons]

Maybe someone can clarify for me the supposition that if none of the horses running in todays race can run to par, then the race is up for grabs (more so than usual) and that the worst horse has as much of a chance to win as the best horse.

Regardless of their ability to run to par, you can still have BIG differences in their speed and pace ratings, with a definite and significant hierarchy among the entrants - why are these any less meaningful, or reliable, than they would be in a field where some or all of them CAN run to par?

Steve

[headhawg]

wolsons,

I think that's why you still need to find contenders. If I remember correctly, Mitchell wrote that in chaos races his records showed that his lowest contender was winning at the same rate as his highest rated contender but was paying better.

The other thing he wrote was that some people would feel more comfortable passing this kind of race, and some would use this technique to "swing for the fences".

HH

[shots]

[QUOTE]Originally posted by headhawg
[B]wolsons,

.... Mitchell wrote that in chaos races his records showed that his lowest contender was winning at the same rate as his highest rated contender but was paying better.

Did Mitchell give the number of races he based this on? Did he break this down to surfaces and distances?

[headhawg]

shots,

I can't recall if he did or not, but if memory serves I want to say no, at least not in the books that I've read. Perhaps, someone else has that info. My gut feeling is that it works better on dirt, though.

If this matters, I don't pay attention to distance but maybe I should.

HH

[kitts]

Mitchell was a big fan of par times long before he had his own to sell. I worked for Dick for about three years and he made many observations about par times which made sense. I do not recall the exact wording on the pars issue but one can read his publications and read all about it. Once while working for him, I had a great run of luck and paid for my frequent trips to Las Vegas which Dick mentioned in a newsletter. I do not recall him saying anything about buying a new car. I traded in the car I drove then in 2000 up here in Las Vegas.

[headhawg]

Originally posted by kitts
I do not recall him saying anything about buying a new car.
Kitts,

I might be mixing book references. I seem to recall DM mentioning in a book that someone used the Mitchell Matrix to hit for $9000 and bought a car with the winnings. I thought it was you, but it may have been someone else he was working with and thought was an excellent handicapper.

HH

[John]

Steve Wolson....Nice to you posting.

I think if no horse ran to par in thier last race [ and you gage a horses ability off his last race only.] You have a chaos race were the favorite can look the best but cannot run fastest, or as fast as the par for this race. So like for the 2nd and 3nd choices too.The race is up for grabs. Pace pars might have the answer in races like this. IMHO

John

[freeneasy]

Originally posted by BeatTheChalk
Your post cracked me up so much ..that the dog has been
looking at me funny for hours. In certain races I am able to
say .. with a great deal of accuracy ..when the favorite will
lose. I have only tested about 150 events. So far so good..I
need about 350 more. When I get there I shall start posting
the information. Not every race not every track. It aint bad
so far :) ... I shall save your post for all time !! ...

and speaking of your dog, not only will i do all the aforementioned things in the earlier post but i will also hand pick each and every flea off your lovely dog as well as modify your car to run all day on pidgion droppings. there i think i got this in the right place now.

[Bob Allen]

All,

Ordered the Coffee Break Millionaire the other day and guess what?

Just now I received a call from Bill Winn asking me to join a syndicate that gathers inside information. Investment was $7500 to start and it got down to $2500 at the end.

Basically, he was promising an average of 3-4 bets per week, I make the bets with my money - the $7500 is just for the tips I would receive. He was alluding to, not promising, 1000% profits.

The $7500 would be for a whole year's worth of tips from the syndicate.

Sounds like my last stockbroker telling me how good Enron stock was.

Bob

[BeatTheChalk]

no surprise....John Piesen does it all the time .. and Harvey
Ames ( not his real name of course ) Called me last week ..I am
on all the lists....His deal was "" only "" 500 for the spring season....Hurley has lots of stuff going on .. been in the biz a
long long time. He is NOT the Hurley wheel :) And I am sure
he will come out with his "guaranteed" Derby pick. I am
stayin with Smarty Jones and that is my final answhaaaa.

[Tom]

Originally posted by kitts
Mitchell was a big fan of par times long before he had his own to sell. I worked for Dick for about three years and he made many observations about par times which made sense. I do not recall the exact wording on the pars issue but one can read his publications and read all about it. Once while working for him, I had a great run of luck and paid for my frequent trips to Las Vegas which Dick mentioned in a newsletter. I do not recall him saying anything about buying a new car. I traded in the car I drove then in 2000 up here in Las Vegas.


A friend of mine drove to Vegas in an $8,000 Vega and came home in a $250,000 Greyhound. :rolleyes:

[kingfin66]

Originally posted by headhawg
Kitts,

I might be mixing book references. I seem to recall DM mentioning in a book that someone used the Mitchell Matrix to hit for $9000 and bought a car with the winnings. I thought it was you, but it may have been someone else he was working with and thought was an excellent handicapper.

HH

In Commonsense Handicapping, Mitchell said that one of his students bought a car for $9000 cash using his "Mitchell Matrix" exacta technique. For what it's worth, I think that his exacta chapter in that book is some of the best handicapping info I have read.

[kingfin66]

Originally posted by Bob Allen
All,

Ordered the Coffee Break Millionaire the other day and guess what?

Just now I received a call from Bill Winn asking me to join a syndicate that gathers inside information. Investment was $7500 to start and it got down to $2500 at the end.

Basically, he was promising an average of 3-4 bets per week, I make the bets with my money - the $7500 is just for the tips I would receive. He was alluding to, not promising, 1000% profits.

The $7500 would be for a whole year's worth of tips from the syndicate.

Sounds like my last stockbroker telling me how good Enron stock was.Bob

I got the same call. At first, I thought, how cool is it that the author of this book is actually calling me. He must have like me better because he started at $2500 for me. He said that his inside sources hit a lot of double digit (payoff - not odds) horses at Santa Anita. He also said that his clients average $42000 in profits per year. I will give the book a chance, but it really did irritate me to get that call the very day after I ordered the book.

[Hosshead]

You mean you gotta give him your phone number to order the book? Is his real name Winn?

[takeout]

Originally posted by kingfin66
I will give the book a chance, but it really did irritate me to get that call the very day after I ordered the book.
He sure tried to set the hook awfully fast. :D

Some of these guys are obviously not from the school of the "Doc".

[freeneasy]

these guys that advertise in the form, now and then i give em a call. last week i called one service and he said we handicap all tracks and give you the best 1 or 2 plays we find. he said it might be a double at oaklawn or it might be a pk 3 at santa anita or both. next thing out of his mouth.
" the cost is $150 for 30 phone calls. you wanna get started rite now?" i said well before i do that i need to ask a few questions. he said "go ahead" i said "bla bla win percentages, bla bla return on investment, oh and bla bla bla do you use a moitoring agency to record the selections that you put out each day?" if you do i would like to contact them before making a decision. he said, no we dont need to, our picks speak for themselfs, so would you like to go ahead and get started right now for $150? i said well since you dont come under any other scrutiny other then your own and theres way to verify your claims, i said, you guys are going to need to give me a couple of days to a weeks worth of service to for me to see for myself.
he gave me ome horse at oaklawn, 2nd fav. never hit the board. but thats how you deal with these guys. put the screws to em and if they dont have sound answer then their tryin to put the screws to you. period.

[kingfin66]

I totally agree with you. And why would I even want the service anyway. I mean, the fun with this game is making the picks yourself anyway right? It's the thrill of the chase as much as it is the kill. At least, that's how it is for me.

[kingfin66]

Originally posted by Hosshead
You mean you gotta give him your phone number to order the book? Is his real name Winn?

You have to register at Heritage House (jimhurley.net) before you can buy the book. You put your phone number when you register. Bill Winn is the author's name. I just received the book today. In the first part of the book, he says his given name is Bill Wyzniewski, but nobody could spell it right so he changed it. I can relate as I have an Italian last name with many consonants and vowels.

[takeout]

I've long since ceased to be surprised by the vast number of charlatans, hucksters, shills, BS artists and just out-and-out cons that try to feed off of the inexperienced in this game. What does surprise me is some the money figures that are being tossed around for the cost of their services. Somebody out there is getting "serviced" all right - bigtime!

[klynn52]

All: anyone wish to sell their copy of the aforementioned book?
email me at klynn55@netzero.net

[Hosshead]

Dav4463 or anybody else who bought it: So how are the stats on the CBM going?

[jk3521]

Hosshead,

They must be making money hand over fist and don't want to share. ;)

[kingfin66]

Originally posted by Hosshead
Dav4463 or anybody else who bought it: So how are the stats on the CBM going?

I started out trying to go through old pp's to find plays. Needless to say, that is tedious, time consuming and the race has already been run. I have handicapped three cards this weekend; 4/3 SA, 4/3 Haw, and 4/4 SA. The program is showing a 1.72% profit. Obviously, I need way more cards. With my limited horse play lately, this will take awhile. Dave is doing a lot more than me and I'm sure he will post his results as well. I will try to post an update after each 10 cards handicapped.

[dav4463]

I'm still working on a few racecards. I hit a slump in the last 15 races though. Still a 9.5 % profit through my last 56 plays. Once I get a little more time, I'll have more results to post.

[Blackgold]

I ordered the book and they bumped my Visa on 3/21. Called them today and they said I should receive any day.

I ordered from a mailer and had no idea I was actually sending money to Jim Hurley and his various enterprises.

Used to receive numerous sports betting tout offers from Hurley and another Maryland based huckster, Mike Warren.

Seems there are a whole lot of offers coming out of Maryland, and many from the same address or loosely knit companies.

There are stock tips, currency trading tips, inside gov. info, etc., etc., etc. If you don't buy a newsletter that swears the Democrats will ruin America, then couple months later they send you a newsletter offer that swears the GOP will ruin America.

Hope I enjoy the book and thank god for the FCC do not call list.

By the way- having rode the GA TECH moneyline to the final game, am on them tonite too!

[DealMe3]

I've set CBM aside for now.

Just recently I received Win Generate 2000 by Nick Borg. I saw it on Ebay and thought, "what the hell."

So far, I've been pretty surpised by the results. I re-handicapped the March 20 race card from DRF by strickly follwing the guideline in WG2K. It showed a 38% hit rate on win bets with a 154% ROI. I'm in the process of handicapping the Oct 1 race cards just to see how it (Win Generate 200) holds up.

I still like Calibration Handicapping when it comes to finding longies.

Later,
Phil

[BeatTheChalk]

Regards Calibration ...I did hear good things about it some time
ago. Since I ONLY look for longshots....I would like to buy that
program. Any ideas about where I can buy it ? thanks a lot

[headhawg]

BTC,

The program for CH is just a front end that downloads the figures that Jim Lehane provides. It is not a stand-alone program that uses Bris or HDW files. Jim offers a free trial. Here is the link:

http://www.free-horseracing-info.com/chsubserv1.html

Good luck.

HH

[Jeep]

Aren't Hurley and Warren brothers?

[John]

JEEP

TWINS

[Richard]

Might there be a website where this book can be ordered?

[BeatTheChalk]

Hurley and Warren ? Brothers .. Never heard that ..but who
knows. Mike Warren aka Lasky was operatiing out of
Maryland for a long time. Then moved to Fla to do his now
Infamous..." Miss Cleo " shtick ( so they say .. I can not
document it)....but it sounds right LOL

[Figman]

They're brother sheep.....they like to fleece the public!

[BIG RED]

Just recieved my third mail flier from CBM.

Dealme; I still use WG from time to time. Caught a nice $36 winner at BIG A last time I used it.

[BeatTheChalk]

Wondering what " WG " is ? thanks ""

[takeout]

Originally posted by BIG RED
Just recieved my third mail flier from CBM.

He must be spending the millions he made on his coffee breaks on these damn mailings. :D

[BeatTheChalk]

Hurley is one of the last great systems mills ...They just keep
mailing and mailing ...Now please tell me how u golks got that
30 dollar mutuel ..with CBM :)

[DealMe3]

WG is for Win Generate 2000 by Nick Borg.

I got a copy from Ebay and had some nice results from the testing. I was meaning to use it on some real bets this last weekend, but it slipped my mind. Amoung other things.

[BeatTheChalk]

thanks for posting the info .. regrards " WG" equals
Win Generate. I actually heard good things about it some
time ago.

[jk3521]

Hey, we're getting off the track here. What is the final result on "Coffee" ? Is it a winner or a loser?

[Hosshead]

Yeah, what's the verdict?..........(maybe they're making too much money with it to post anymore !) Life has become one looong coffee break ! They're probably in the Bahamas with a laptop making money, and snapping bikini's. :eek:

[John]

You know, two guys, put out a paper system, "Meehan and Simmons" When I was working I would ues on my coffee and lunch break. It was quick,simple, and good. What I liked about this is when you found an angle you stopped,That was your play.

Example" 1st angle in sprints, Horse runs back in 7 days bet
him.If horse is favorite.
No horse fits that angle.go to angle 2. if no horse fits 2 go to angle 3. 4.5,6,7, As soon as a horse fits any angle you stop.He is your play.

The angles were so simple that you could remember them once you read them.

I would do a card in about 20 minutes.

Some weeks, I would do well. average mutuel around $15.00 win percentage between 20 and 25 %.

Meehan and Simmons chould have called this the " Lunch break Handicapper."

[SAL]

I bought the book. And that can pretty much sum it up. Five angles, pretty quick to spot. Haven' t had a chance to check them on paper yet, but I doubt they would show a long term profit if followed to the letter. Someone with a DB could probably check it out.

[andicap]

Originally posted by rocajack
You know, two guys, put out a paper system, "Meehan and Simmons" When I was working I would ues on my coffee and lunch break. It was quick,simple, and good. What I liked about this is when you found an angle you stopped,That was your play.

Example" 1st angle in sprints, Horse runs back in 7 days bet
him.If horse is favorite.
No horse fits that angle.go to angle 2. if no horse fits 2 go to angle 3. 4.5,6,7, As soon as a horse fits any angle you stop.He is your play.

The angles were so simple that you could remember them once you read them.

I would do a card in about 20 minutes.

Some weeks, I would do well. average mutuel around $15.00 win percentage between 20 and 25 %.

Meehan and Simmons chould have called this the " Lunch break Handicapper."

I don't get it. If it worked and you could do a card in 20 minutes, why did you stop using it?

If it didn't post a profit, why bother mentioning it here in the context of it being a "good" system in your words. What's the point?


:confused:

[BeatTheChalk]

I love systems that are quick and easy ! Dont we all .. Is there
a way to get the rules .. or purchase the item ? Whenever I get
a " system" It always always works the first time. LOL ..

[BeatTheChalk]

Snapping bikinis sounds good to me. I lived in Freepohhhrt for
a year and a half. Whole lotta snappin goin on .. especially when
the college ladies arrived on the cruise ships.. Whoops back to
handicapping .. .. ..darn now I lost my train of thought ..
As for the Coffee Break system .. Phillips Newsletter discussed
it.... and several of the subscribers tested it. Ranking was about
a 5 on a scale of 1 to 10. Sure wish I was sending this message
from Freeport .. but alas.. .. ..

[Blackgold]

I'm still waiting for my copy.

They tapped my credit card 3/22.

Guess I'll have to call their Maryland offices. . .again.

Maryland 'O Maryland

[BeatTheChalk]

Well at least you wont lose any dough ! Leave it to the
folks in Maryland ..When u receive the secrets...please let
us know !!
I recall when I used to order systems from the good folks
in Brooklyn. They would always send a refund...but it would
take months and months.
We all thought it was just a way to live off the float LOL

[kingfin66]

Originally posted by Hosshead
Yeah, what's the verdict?..........(maybe they're making too much money with it to post anymore !) Life has become one looong coffee break ! They're probably in the Bahamas with a laptop making money, and snapping bikini's. :eek:

I have done some tracking with the CBM. In fact, I have posted some of the picks on teh Selections section. I think that it has some value in cheap claiming races. It does poorly in Alw races, and is especially weak in n1 races. This is based more on observation than fact, although I have kept a running workout.

With n1 races, the horses haven't really established their true class level yet. One of the Cycles involves horses coming off a win. This is a weak cycle IMHO because it often comes into play only in these types of races.

One cycle involves horses coming off races where they finished out of the money but are close. This cycle generates the most play, but often with longshots. It can show horses sitting on a big effort, but it will also identify horses without any chance.

Somebody in the thread said they saw where it was given a 5 out of 10 rating. This is about right. In my workout, I am actually showing a slight profit using the book's $2/4/12 betting system and a very good ROI using a $2/8 system. The results were actually phenomenal for a time until 4/18/04 when the system was crushed at Beu and Haw.

If somebody has a database where they could do a large sample workout please let me know. That would be a good way to test the system a little bit. All-in-all, I think that to use the CBM you have to pick your spots. Look at the favorite to see if it's vulnerable. Use in lower claiming races or Starter Allowances with older horses only, and make sure that horse fits very well at the class level, whatever it is (showing an in the money finish at today's class or higher, or a win at one class lower would be a possible rule of thumb).

I hope that helps a little bit for those curious about the system.

[BeatTheChalk]

Your posting was excellent ! Regards Beu and Haw .. I AM
surprised that anything would work at those tracks.
I am not surprised that the system doesn't work on NW2
and allowances. I have a fair size data base - but my Bris
downloads do NOT have the Beyer numbers. Most of the races
are from GP. I do have races from AQU and SA and a few other
races from a mixture of tracks.
Right now I download about 30 to 40 cards per month from
CD and HOL.

[Hosshead]

Thanks for the report Kingfin. I'm surprised that you're still getting "a very good ROI using the $2/8 system". So why not use that ? Maybe you can tweak the system to incorporate the class of the race.

[kingfin66]

Hosshead,

I'm thinking about doing just that as far as tweaking the system goes. If I use CBM I will also dump all but Cycle 5. It is really similar to the articles that Dan Geer posts in American Turf Monthly. It's a good way to identify horses that are coming into form and have shown they can compete at today's class. It's another weapon for the arsenal I suppose. I definitely wouldn't strictly follow the system as presented in the book, however, as there will be too many losers in the n1 or n2 races.

[kingfin66]

Originally posted by Hosshead
Thanks for the report Kingfin. I'm surprised that you're still getting "a very good ROI using the $2/8 system". So why not use that ? Maybe you can tweak the system to incorporate the class of the race.

I almost forgot. My theory regarding the better ROI on w/p vs. wps is that the system really isn't designed to pick winners in most cases, but instead it selects horses that have a chance to hit the board. Putting more money in the place spot results in a nice payoff for the horse that runs second. 2nd is a much higher probability for any horse, but seems to be even more so for the horses in this system.

[BeatTheChalk]

Have you noticed if these horses have Early Speed ? I am going
to guess that they do...Only the Shadow knows for sure...but
you are doing great work there .. so I will not contact Lamont
Cranston yet :)

[andicap]

OK,
If a system shows a positive ROI on $2 win/$8 place and a better ROI if you ignore BEU and Haw why doesn't it deserve more than a "5."?
Seems like any system that can show a profit deserves at least an 8 if not a 9. So just don't play NW 1 or NW 2. It's not like there at that many allowance races and with simulcasting you can certainly find your share of claiming races.



:confused: :confused:

[kingfin66]

Andicap,

Let me clarify. The Beu/Haw lack of success is over very limited number of samples. Most of the tracking I have done is from TuP. Personally, I don't think the CBM is much of a system at all the way it is written. It will put you on too many longshots. I don't know where the "5" rating came from.

What I am working with now is a modified CBM cycle. Cycle 5 (of five) uses horses that have finished out-of-the money but close (4.5 lengths) to the winner. It doesn't take into account the horse's class or best distance, etc. What you end up with are a bunch of horses that meet the cycle/system criteria, but don't really have a chance of finishing in the money.

I am taking the basic premise of the Cycle and including distance and class factors. The class requirement is that they have won at the same class or one class lower (ex. won at n2l, today is n3l for same claiming amt.), or has finished in the money at today's class or higher. This was actually Hosshead's suggestion. The workout on this has been phenomenal, but the sample has been much smaller than the original method.

Your original question of why a system that makes a positive ROI would be a 5 is a good one. The answer is that the CBM, as it was published, would most likely not earn a positive ROI regardless of what tracks are used.

Hope that helps.

[BeatTheChalk]

This rating comes from Philllips Racing Newsletter. It has been
around for years .. very honest etc. I found that most of the time
they have been pretty accurate. Doesnt mean that they are
right or wrong ..this time around :)

[kingfin66]

Thanks Beatthechalk. By the way, I sent you a PM the other day regarding running a database workout for me. To go off topic a little here, how is the PRN? Is it worth the price? I was checking their site recently and saw that they do system workouts. It looks like they also review software. I believe Meadows Racing Monthly also used to do this.

[kingfin66]

Originally posted by BeatTheChalk
I love systems that are quick and easy ! Dont we all .. Is there
a way to get the rules .. or purchase the item ? Whenever I get
a " system" It always always works the first time. LOL ..

Ask and you shall receive. You can purchase it right her:

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&category=31668&item=4130396101&rd=

If you purchase it, please share as time allows.

[BeatTheChalk]

So who knows if I will get it...I dont know the tricks of bidding..
I will call a friend of mine who has bot a ton of stuff there..
thanks