Late Pace and Variants

[Shacopate]

What % of the track variant should be applied to the final fraction when making a "late pace" rating?

[raybo]

What % of the track variant should be applied to the final fraction when making a "late pace" rating?

That's a tough one. I confess I've never tackled the job of trying to calculate my own pace figures from the fractions. Your question is an interesting one, however. I may be all wet, but it seems to me that the heavier a track is, (assuming that a higher variant was due to a slower surface and not due to slower animals running there), the more it would affect animals in the latter stages of races. They are tiring towards the end of a race and a heavy surface would slow their final fractions more so than their earlier ones. At least that is the way I see it. So, I guess I am saying that the over-all variant would have to be distributed to each of the fractions in a non-linear fashion, with a larger percentage applying to the later stages of the race.

[shanta]

try this mix and see what happens. sprints- 35%
routes -40%
before i went to software in the mid 90's i used the tpr ratings from pace makes the race and this breakdown seemed to work pretty well for me. Richie

[raybo]

shanta

Which software do you use?(if you don't mind divulging that) I've looked at several but they all seem to pick favorites and I rarely bet a favorite, I'll pass the race first. I wrote my own spreadsheet based handicapping program several years ago and keep adding to it from time to time and now it's grown to over 13 MB and is getting hard to handle. I'm not a programmer or I'd write a VB program or something else that would run from Windows instead of Excel. If I found some software that I could "mess with" to run my formulas I'd consider switching.

[shanta]

i use validator 2. i download pp's from trackmaster and they automatically copy to the val program. Raybo there is NO manual entry of your data or tinkering you can do with this program.once you download the pp's you select a paceline for each horse and the program does the rest. it is not any kind of spreadsheet type program nor is it a data base type thing. I hope this answered your question ok. Richie

[delayjf]

Shacopote

Below is a tread by MV MKCEE who has looked at exactly what you are asking about. Other posters on this page have done simular research and achieved simular results.



http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?postid=45462#post45462