bgbootha
08-09-2013, 11:04 PM
A good friend is taking on a handicapping contest at AP tomorrow, we published this blog in his honor. Posting it here as well.
Saratoga R4 (8.5f/Turf)
First and foremost the weather at Saratoga looks to be 79 and clear tomorrow, so hopefully mother nature will stay out of the way in New York. Now, right away it appears we have a FalseFav tag but quickly realize the ‘favs’ on the ML are listed as AE and more than likely won’t get to run. The most interesting horse in this race is the more than likely post time favorite 2 CAN’T CATCH KATE who is making its third start of the career after a disappointing 6th as the favorite last time out and that was 155 days ago! Has our Trn/Jck angle working in their favor and the second strongest strong finish, but the questions still loom. THe 4 WINNER’s LEGACY would probably be my pick here in this race, although they are coming off a tough ninth the last time out, they have an impressive history and the strongest StrongFinish, HBD L8 and HBD Speed# of the probably field and at 8/1 morning line we may have found some value in our first race.
Monmouth R5 (6f/Dirt)
Another FalseFav and some big numbers on the top of our sheets, including the 20/1 10 BILLULLU and if this horse wasn’t so far on the outside I would really like him in this race, but the fact is, he is starting way outside and will have the 6 and the 7 taking off hard in front of him and he will more than likely get caught way outside or not be in position to strike at all. The eventual winner of this race will more than likely be just behind the three strong early horses, and here is where we really take our shot. The 4 I’M NOT MYSELF, is coming off a good first half of a race and is dropping Rt2Spr, has the double positive with a decent +17.1 StrongStart and a very useable +6.7 StrongFinish. Not the safest pick and definitely taking a shot here, but it may be worth it.
Arlington Park R5 (7f/Poly)
Another FalseFav race, only this time I think the pick is easy, the 8 MIRKA is the top pick on our sheets, has the best early speed and the second best StrongStart the big negative number in the StrongFinish category isn’t a concern having watched his last three races. I don’t see the morning line of 5/1 hanging around that high, but still could get 3/1 value out of this horse it would be worth it.
Saratoga R8 (8f/InnerT)
The favorite here is the favorite for a reason, the 7 LEADEM IN KEN might be the 5th horse on our sheets but his numbers look strong and are moving in the right direction. A young horse moving in the right direction coming off a nice win in which he still wasted some ground and has the highest strong finish number at +12.0, in a probably field that just doesn’t include much late speed at this distance.
Saratoga R9 (8.5f/Turf)
The 2 PRAIA has only finished out of the top 2 once in his career, comes into this race with the highest HBD Added figure, doesn’t quite qualify as a double positive with a 0.0 rating for Strong Finish. But looks to be part of this race and is probably the safest bet we have made so far.
Monmouth R10 (8f/Turf)
The 8 RARO is coming off three strong races including a close second in which he was barely outfinished. Looking at the pace makeup of this race, RARO should be just off the leaders coming off the turn and will be in prime position to win this thing with a ML of 5/1. Also sits with a double positive angle in StrongStart and StrongFinish. While the 10 is our top rated horse I don’t like the stretching out to a mile after struggling to finish a 6f race strong his last time out.
Del Mar R3(8f/Poly)
Looking at the pace model I think the pace here could be a bit quicker than most will have it. And the horse who will clean up the early mess will be the 2 FUNNY BELLE. With the highest StrongFinish rating of the field, and coming off a great race on the turf the last time out. His speed should translate well to the Del Mar surface. Add in a drop in class and a return to a distance he is comfortable with this guy should be near the finish when it is all said and done.
Del Mar R5 (8.5f/Turf)
Another horse coming second off claim and second off layoff the 1 DANDEREK also adds a drop in distance and a move to the rail here in the 5th. While the 1 won’t be near the front early in the race, this race should set up for him to come from near the rear and win this thing down the stretch.
Saratoga R4 (8.5f/Turf)
First and foremost the weather at Saratoga looks to be 79 and clear tomorrow, so hopefully mother nature will stay out of the way in New York. Now, right away it appears we have a FalseFav tag but quickly realize the ‘favs’ on the ML are listed as AE and more than likely won’t get to run. The most interesting horse in this race is the more than likely post time favorite 2 CAN’T CATCH KATE who is making its third start of the career after a disappointing 6th as the favorite last time out and that was 155 days ago! Has our Trn/Jck angle working in their favor and the second strongest strong finish, but the questions still loom. THe 4 WINNER’s LEGACY would probably be my pick here in this race, although they are coming off a tough ninth the last time out, they have an impressive history and the strongest StrongFinish, HBD L8 and HBD Speed# of the probably field and at 8/1 morning line we may have found some value in our first race.
Monmouth R5 (6f/Dirt)
Another FalseFav and some big numbers on the top of our sheets, including the 20/1 10 BILLULLU and if this horse wasn’t so far on the outside I would really like him in this race, but the fact is, he is starting way outside and will have the 6 and the 7 taking off hard in front of him and he will more than likely get caught way outside or not be in position to strike at all. The eventual winner of this race will more than likely be just behind the three strong early horses, and here is where we really take our shot. The 4 I’M NOT MYSELF, is coming off a good first half of a race and is dropping Rt2Spr, has the double positive with a decent +17.1 StrongStart and a very useable +6.7 StrongFinish. Not the safest pick and definitely taking a shot here, but it may be worth it.
Arlington Park R5 (7f/Poly)
Another FalseFav race, only this time I think the pick is easy, the 8 MIRKA is the top pick on our sheets, has the best early speed and the second best StrongStart the big negative number in the StrongFinish category isn’t a concern having watched his last three races. I don’t see the morning line of 5/1 hanging around that high, but still could get 3/1 value out of this horse it would be worth it.
Saratoga R8 (8f/InnerT)
The favorite here is the favorite for a reason, the 7 LEADEM IN KEN might be the 5th horse on our sheets but his numbers look strong and are moving in the right direction. A young horse moving in the right direction coming off a nice win in which he still wasted some ground and has the highest strong finish number at +12.0, in a probably field that just doesn’t include much late speed at this distance.
Saratoga R9 (8.5f/Turf)
The 2 PRAIA has only finished out of the top 2 once in his career, comes into this race with the highest HBD Added figure, doesn’t quite qualify as a double positive with a 0.0 rating for Strong Finish. But looks to be part of this race and is probably the safest bet we have made so far.
Monmouth R10 (8f/Turf)
The 8 RARO is coming off three strong races including a close second in which he was barely outfinished. Looking at the pace makeup of this race, RARO should be just off the leaders coming off the turn and will be in prime position to win this thing with a ML of 5/1. Also sits with a double positive angle in StrongStart and StrongFinish. While the 10 is our top rated horse I don’t like the stretching out to a mile after struggling to finish a 6f race strong his last time out.
Del Mar R3(8f/Poly)
Looking at the pace model I think the pace here could be a bit quicker than most will have it. And the horse who will clean up the early mess will be the 2 FUNNY BELLE. With the highest StrongFinish rating of the field, and coming off a great race on the turf the last time out. His speed should translate well to the Del Mar surface. Add in a drop in class and a return to a distance he is comfortable with this guy should be near the finish when it is all said and done.
Del Mar R5 (8.5f/Turf)
Another horse coming second off claim and second off layoff the 1 DANDEREK also adds a drop in distance and a move to the rail here in the 5th. While the 1 won’t be near the front early in the race, this race should set up for him to come from near the rear and win this thing down the stretch.