Looking for Programmer

[bill evans]

Can anyone recommend a good programmer who can write a Quirin numbers custom program for me ?

[eqitec]

What are your objectives for the program?

[Hoofless_Wonder]

If you poke around this site a bit, it might help you understand what's needed from your side.

https://www.elance.com/?r

Be prepared to help provide things like:

--> scope (how long will it take)
--> pay rate (fixed or hourly)
--> deliverable (software, documentation?)
--> type of system to run on (Windows?)
--> type of input needed (BRIS DRF files?)
--> type of interface desired? (GUI or command line)
--> type of calculations (algo)

If you simply need a calculation of Quirin numbers only, then I'd recommend maybe going the spreadsheet route and using Raybo's tools - you could do it yourself in the time it takes to explain what needs to be done....

[DeltaLover]

If you describe your needs, I might come up with an open source tool (based in the complexity and the value I might see on it).

You can read more about Quirin's on my blog :

http://alogatas.wordpress.com/2012/10/28/impact_of_early_speed/

[Helles]

Not to hijack the thread, but I wanted to compliment DeltaLover on an excellent piece.

[raybo]

Not to hijack the thread, but I wanted to compliment DeltaLover on an excellent piece.

Agree, but why was Quirin = 0 not included? Quirin points range from 0-8, not 1-8.

[Tom]

I suspect the Quirin numbers mentioned here are the pace and speed figures?
That would be a nice program to have - input the BRIS files, use a par source, such as Dave's EXCELLENT Horse Street pars and print out the Q figs, races shapes, etc.

[raybo]

I suspect the Quirin numbers mentioned here are the pace and speed figures?
That would be a nice program to have - input the BRIS files, use a par source, such as Dave's EXCELLENT Horse Street pars and print out the Q figs, races shapes, etc.

Yes, it would help if the OP would clarify which Quirin numbers he is interested in, speed "points" or speed figures. But if he is talking about Quirin points, then they range from 0 to 8, not 1 to 8 (as some programmers like to do in order to accommodate their own software (HTR for example dumps the 0 points group in with the 1 point group, giving you a larger number of QSP = 1 horses than there should be, and not an exact representation of Quirin's early speed point method).

[SandyW]

Yes, it would help if the OP would clarify which Quirin numbers he is interested in, speed "points" or speed figures. But if he is talking about Quirin points, then they range from 0 to 8, not 1 to 8 (as some programmers like to do in order to accommodate their own software (HTR for example dumps the 0 points group in with the 1 point group, giving you a larger number of QSP = 1 horses than there should be, and not an exact representation of Quirin's early speed point method).

HTR range of the Quirin points is 0 to 8 on all their screens that show the Quirin early speed points.

[raybo]

[/b]

HTR range of the Quirin points is 0 to 8 on all their screens that show the Quirin early speed points.

Copied directly from the HTR archives:

6
HTR Monthly Report
April 2001
Advanced Handicapping
Quirin Speed Points – The Basics
Quirin speed points (QPts) are a popular computer handicapping tool and appear on many of the HTR
reports. At face value they are a worthwhile factor to consider in any race. We’ll go deeper than the
basics this time and test them in various scenarios that may help us understand the entire outcome of the
race related to early pressure.
The Quirin speed points were an original concept first published in 1979 by Dr. William Quirin in his
classic book Winning at the Races – Computer Discoveries in Thoroughbred Handicapping. The speed
points were an attempt to quantify the potential amount of early speed in the race. Horses are assigned
point values based on their ability to be on or close to the early pace in recent races. Rather than rehash
the details of the formula for computing the speed points (re: chapter two of Quirin book), I’ll make some
thoughts about their practical use and their application within HTR software.
· The Quirin speed points calculation includes various rules for route and sprint distances and even a 7-
furlong adjustment. Extra credit is given for sprinters stretching out. Each horse’s most recent four
starts are reviewed initially. If an entrant has less than three useful races in the past-performance
lines, then an estimate is made based on any available information. I have made slight modifications
to the original Quirin speed point rules in HTR over the years. Most of these were done to
accommodate the inclusion of the speed points into the various HTR software reports. The most
obvious change is listed next.
· The original speed points ranged from 0 to 8 points. Zero points was the initial starting point and
minimum value, with “8” as the maximum and strongest indicator of probable early speed. I
modified that slightly in HTR and made 1 the minimum and eliminated the 0 (zero) as a rating. This
allows the zero to be used as a “not available” item for horses that cannot be computed or have data
missing. The difference between 1 and 0 speed points is almost insignificant in actual handicapping
anyway. However, this does result in a larger group of horses receiving the minimum value.
· Quirin speed points were designed to predict a horse’s tendency to exhibit early speed only. They are
not to be used to estimate comparative running position in the race. Use running style (RS)
designations or velocity figures to project early positioning.
The chart below gives you a summary of what the Quirin speed points mean at a flash.
Item Explanation
8-Qpts Always makes the lead
7-Qpts Usually makes the lead
6-Qpts Frequently on or close to the lead early
5-Qpts Often close up.
4-Qpts Sometimes close to the early leaders
3-Qpts Infrequently up close
2-Qpts Rarely runs toward the lead
1-Qpts Very Rarely or Never runs to the front.

[bcgreg]

Ray,

Quirin 0 and 1 are indeed broken out separately now in HTR. I am uncertain when the change was made.

Regards,
bcgreg

[DeltaLover]

Agree, but why was Quirin = 0 not included? Quirin points range from 0-8, not 1-8.

To simplify some of the calculations avoiding the noise caused by first starters.

[Tom]

Does it matter at all?

[DeltaLover]

Does it matter at all?

Theoretically yes, practically not. The impact of zero will be minimal.

[DeltaLover]

After using quirin as the main input for pace calculations for approximately 6 months, I concluded that although they have significant predictive value I can substitute them with a better approach. My best qurin based model was able to provide very sparse signals that although had some betting value from a strictly theoretical view were very infrequent making losing streaks very long.

The questions we face when analyzing a past performance from the pace prospective are the following:

(1) How fast the race was ran during its calls

(2) How fast the horse ran the calls

(3) Can we predict how the race will evolve today

(4) Is our prediction affecting the outcome of the race

(5) If (4) is correct, can we find value on it (the opposite will be that our prediction is already known to the public, presenting no betting value at all)

The last one (5) is the condition representing the 'fitness' of any methodology.

The objective is to create a model that will maximize (5) while receiving as input only the past performances with not derivatives at all (like speed figures, track variants or pace figures for example).

Historical data also should feed the model, providing with the necessary data to create an equivalent of a track variant or any other derivative.

The reason why I say that quirin points can be substituted with better has to do with the fact that they represent derivatives that although better than nothing they still have disadvantages a few of them are the following:

- They are relatively too granular making the development of an automated system very complicated. Having nine discreet values makes classification difficult due to data limitations.

- Are missing relative attributes like for example a horse moving from the outer to the inner post, or stretching out from 5f to 1 1/16

- Do not adjust well based in track conditions

- They are very deterministic. For example assume a maiden race where none of the starters has ever lead or been close to a single call during his career, quirin or any other deterministic system will not be able to make a prediction, usually forcing handicappers to mark the race as 'no bet'

I have found using four distinct values for most of my metrics very beneficial for my decision tree models and I am convinced that we do not need more granularity for the purposes of pace handicapping.
In my case the critical input for any race consist of pace data and a small universe of handicapping factors that combined can answer the question of weather to bet or not (is other words to quantify the probability of the crowd's error) and what should be my selection. The one question I am not interested of answering is how big my bet should be, which of course belongs to a separate conversation.

[raybo]

Theoretically yes, practically not. The impact of zero will be minimal.

That depends entirely on how you are using the points. For my usage "0" must be there. First Time Starters can be assigned a null value, if it causes a problem for you.

Whatever, I just wondered what the reasoning was, that's all. Forget it.

[bill evans]

I would like a program that allows me to import the pp's from a provider like PTS, DRF, or BRIS and compute the Quirin pace and speed figures using the pacelines I select and using the CL $10k pars from Horse Street's par charts. I'd also like the option of 1/2 or no variant.

[Hoofless_Wonder]

I suspect the Quirin numbers mentioned here are the pace and speed figures?
That would be a nice program to have - input the BRIS files, use a par source, such as Dave's EXCELLENT Horse Street pars and print out the Q figs, races shapes, etc.

Sounds like you were right on the money.

The option to manually choose the pace lines and 1/2 or no variant would add some code, as the first step would be a PP display of sorts. I believe this would be outside the scope of Delta's open source tool, assuming he was thinking a few lines of python.

BTW Delta - excellent blog entries, and nice expansion of your view of the Quirin numbers in this thread. Thanks!!

[facorsig]

www.freelancer.com is another source of programmers and data entry workers. I've hired someone to build a personal website....he's doing a great job. I've hired two other people to do data entry associated with my wagers....one person has been slow, the other needed a lot of assistance.

[Dave Schwartz]

I would like a program that allows me to import the pp's from a provider like PTS, DRF, or BRIS and compute the Quirin pace and speed figures using the pacelines I select and using the CL $10k pars from Horse Street's par charts. I'd also like the option of 1/2 or no variant.

Bill,

Would you have an interest in such a program if it used HDW data by subscription?

If so, let's begin a discussion of requirements.


Dave

[bill evans]

I have an HDW account that I use occasionally with Dick Mitchell's Fastcapper program. I am certainly open to using HDW for my data instead of PTS. Please let me know what you need to consider the project. Thanks, Bill.