Manitoba Derby

[woodtoo]

It's finally here the big race for our little track.

Respectable, wide open field of nine 3 year olds.Had some heavy rain last night but assuming a fast track by race 8.
:8: Omission 20/1 is an enigma for me,what to do with this Grande Prarie
shipper.Destroyed 5 horse fields in his last two with Beyers of 85 and 90.
If thats not enough it gets more intriguing, having been entered 6 times in
Australia in 2013.
He fits Beyer wise and will probably go off at double digits,is he legit, will
he be "feeling it" today.

:3::4: are the two Canterbury shippers I like .

[pondman]

:5: Stormin Monarcho- Joel Berndt trained. Ran in the Illinois Derby. Prepping well. Lost last race at 20 cents. Can't bet it because of the low odds. But should be the one to beat. Don't think "It's all here' will do the distance.

[HuggingTheRail]

I like the 5 as well. He should be fine with the distance.
If the 2 comes out like a rocket, it could impact the 7. Not that the 7 is a need to lead type, but he may get coerced into going too fast early.

EXA 5 // 3,6

[woodtoo]

Agree the :5: seems like the one to beat,no opinions on the :8: ?
The owner/trainer also trains the :6: in the 4th (Graduation stakes) from NP,that race may give us an idea.

[HuggingTheRail]

For what its worth, I am not a fan of the 8

I think the Grande Prairie races are incredibly weak, and I tend to not trust Beyers or Speed ratings from any of the small meets in Western Canada. I am also of the opinion that he needed to do more in those NP races to be a threat here

The reason I dismiss the 8 as well...in his Jan 16 race at TuP, he finished 4th..the horse that finished 2nd was Red Zeus.

Red Zeus beat the 2 and the 3 on April 27.

I know its only one race, but using the Red Zeus common theme...the 8 may be overmatched?

Now that I have said that, the 8 will win by a 1/16th of a mile :lol:

Good luck :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[pondman]

,no opinions on the :8: ?
.

I got interested in Assiniboia Downs when I was betting it's double digit shippers into Turf Paradise. I saw this horse running for a 1st prize purse of $6000 there and getting slacked by lengths.

He earned US$8,128 in his last. The Grand Praire derby Prep earned him US$3,007. I think he is way over his head. And then you add the distance of 1 1/8th.

It's a race that's fun to look at on paper, but I think the two favorites will be buzz saws. They've been running for 2 or 3 times the money. I don't see much value.

But don't let me talk you off a long one. I'll rally for you.

[PhantomOnTour]

I might make my first ever bet at Assiniboia Downs today...I like the :6: :9:

[woodtoo]

Thanks for the input :ThmbUp:
Playing the p3 and late double :1::3::6::8:/:2::3:/:2::3::5::6:
:2::3:/:2::3::5::6:
Maybe a couple on the :8:, just because.:lol:

[cordep17]

:1: Maiden that hasn't won trying to face a lot better at a new distance and 8 days after hard fought last race. Might come out of his game and try to rate. Already outmatched, I don't think they want him up there in a suicidal pace in his first race at route. Might not be as involved in the pace I first expected. No...New running style a hundred classes above where you've been losing is not the key to success.
:2: A good value if near 8/1. He finished second beaten only half of a length in a stakes race at a route distance. Has been well prepared with two good 6F races. Off the claim by a good trainer raising him in class. I like him
:3: A good closer who has been competitive with the 2, and also should like the distance. Fresh legs, with a bit more time between this race and last than the 2 and 1.
:4: Should add to the pace. First effort at route was a disaster, and he didn't even last very long upfront. They should be going a bit faster today, and the extra 1/16th of a mile doesn't help this one.
:5: Should get a really nice stalking trip. Has been competitive vs. better, and has a lot of comfort at the track and the route distance. Went wide in last and was only just beat. Bounced right out of the Illinois Derby like it never happened. Strong contender.
:6: A late closing horse that needs a few against this stiffer competition. Has never gone after a fast track, and broke his maiden against turf horses that were forced to run on the dirt. It only makes sense that was a weaker race than what is depicted.
:7: Took a turn for the better off of the claim. May still be improving, making this the one to beat. should be right up there all the way around the track. Really likes the track, and running for a great trainer.
:8: Was really sharp in last two races, and trainer thinks he is hot enough to bring him here. OP was right in that this one is a bit hard to read.
:9: First time Lasix runner. Took the connections long enough to use it, so my guess is that he actually probably needs it. With probably improvement, I think he is a contender. The pace should suite well for him. He has also been competitive enough with a few of the runners that I feel confident that if he does improve with Lasix added he'll be right up there at the end.

PACE: I think they will go an OK pace. The two will definitely be up there, and the improving seven should be up there two. If the 4 is good enough to go, I think he might want it too. Taking a back seat in last didn't really do wonders for them, so I think his best shot is if the connections let him go. Horses such as the 5 will be in a close pressing stalking.
I think the 9 has enough upside to make him the value.

[cordep17]

Exacta::9: :5: /:9: :5: :3: :7:
Trifecta::9: :5: /:9: :5: :7: /:9: :5: :7: :3: :2:
Super::9: :5: /:9: :5: /:7: :3: /:7: :3: :2: :8:

[cordep17]

That was a good race. Throw the winer out and I think I got all of that.

The 9 ran a good one for 9/1. Can't be mad about a game horse that couldn't get there.

[chadk66]

I love the Manitoba Derby. All the stakes in Winnipeg for that matter. I used to ship horses from MN to there for stakes quite a bit and always had a great time there. Ran fourth in the Manitoba Derby in 1991 with a horse I bought out of California. Was still really green and wouldn't switch leads right but still ran a hell of a race. He later won stakes at Remington. I ran second in the gold cup at least three times I think. Got beat by less than a length combined in all three if I remember correctly. Just couldn't get it done. But fun place and they treated you great when you shipped in.