cordep17
08-03-2013, 03:32 AM
Race 1
Allowance 82000n2L
:1: (2/1) Fast enough to win at the level. Was laid off for a couple of months after the claim, and responded well in the 7F comeback race. I like the cutback to the 6 1/2 Furlongs, where he lost by less than a length to a good horse who just got 2nd in a 100k stakes race. I think going from n1x -->n2L is a drop, and he is clearly good enough to handle.
:2: (6/1) looks good going into 3rd off the layoff. Back to back races with improvement, and still has room to improve. Stepping up in class, but I think he can handle
:3: (15/1)Was within striking range in a stakes race, which was surprising based off of its past history. Clearly, the trainer feels the horse is on the up. The deep closing style won't help. It'll be dependent on the pace
:4: (7/2)Was favored over the turf, but didn't take to it. low odds suggest his pedigree supports it, so I don't question the motives. I assume they just figured it was worth a try. In general though, he hasn't really ran to the potential he had pre-claim. With declining early speed figures, I think it best to avoid the front-runner losing its front-running abilities
:5: (12/1) While being a career maiden, he was below even money in his 5 length maiden win. It sounds like he was up against nothing special, unlike this race. I can't see it, but the trainer's success at toga makes me wonder if this horse has improved. Saratoga workout times are slower than all previous works at 4F. It isn't that much of an indicator besides that the track won't probably make his race. Not saying it'll break it.
:6: (4/1) Has only worked twice since that miserable performance. I care little that they are bullet works. I get the feeling that they are having issues getting him into racing shape more than he has improved. He was fine before he was getting bullet works, and I don't believe the horse that entered the layoff on a sour note is coming back a better horse than ever.
:7: (8/1)meh. Had to take a big drop to break the maiden, and the work tab doesn't really compute with me.
:8: (8/1)Might provide some pressure, but he is stepping up in class off of a layoff in which his work tab isn't the most consistent. Hasn't really worked at 5F like I would like him to, and there is little reason to rest a lightly raced in form horse unless he was going bad.
The :1: looks really strong in this spot, and the :2: and :3: are OK. I feel confident in what they bring to the table
The Play: $1 1 / 2 3 / 2 3 4 5 --------$2 1 / 2 3
Race 2
MdnSpWt 80000
:1: (4/1) This one has got a poor first time starter trainer, and has never worked 5f despite the race distance of 6f.
:1a: (4/1)This one has got a bit better of a firster trainer, and has a good consistency in the work tab. Has his fair share of 5f works. The sales price was quadruple the sire average at the 2yo sale. He has worked a fair amount at Saratoga, and should be a good candidate to be a maiden winner here. Kind of confused why they entered him in with the two others, who don't seem too compelling to me.
1x (4/1)meh. Similar to the 1
:2: (20/1) Hasn't run to what he needs to run to to be competitive at this spot. Ran a good race though for a trainer that is nothing special with long time layoff horses. chance to improve 2nd start of 3yo campaign. The trainer hasn't brought the flock to Saratoga, or at least they haven't raced yet, so why else would he bring this one if he didn't think he had a chance.
:3: (4/1)Has ran to the par in three consecutive races, but is yet to be able to seal the deal. Looked like he was going to get a couple of those, but just couldn't get there. This one is definitely in form, but it is hard to say he'll win when he has had so many opportunities.
:4: (10/1)Surprised to see him at 10/1 ML. Good consistent works for what is almost a 20% firster trainer. He hasn't worked 5f, but the works are well spaced. He is by a good sire out of a 6/6 mare. I'll give him a shot.
:5: (5/2) 2nd start of 3yo season coming up. Ran well last out at a high level. Didn't race much as a 2yo, and still has plenty of room for improvement from a career aspect as well as a 2nd off layoff candidate.
:6: (8/1) Trainer hasn't really done it yet at Saratoga, and hasn't won yet with a comebacker. Recently took a 14 day layoff from the work tab after consistently working every seven days. In comparison to the others, his two works since the layup have been sub-par. Hard to say he is ready to win first out.
:7: (3/1) Ran a good first race and should be a contender. Trainer is really good with these types.
:8: (15/1)Not feeling it. Poor firster barn and a smaller stud fee for this one. Took an unorthodox work on turf...makes me wonder as to whether they are sure what surface he should race on.
I think I'll go with the :5: . A lot of upside form wise, and can come from a bit off of the pace. It is hard to tell where all of the speed is coming from, but I see three early speed horses in here and 5 first time starters that might get involved up front.
The Play: $2 5 / 1 2 3 4 7-------$1 1 2 3 4 7 / 5
Race 3
MdnClm 20000
:1: (2/1) He seems to like a fast dirt track, which is what it looks like he'll be getting, but it is clear that he has lost a lot of value in the eyes of the connections. Wasn't close in the slop, and this is Saratoga. You've got to be on your A+ game if you want to win. I just don't see that here.
:1a: (2/1) One more dropper for the barn. He handled the off track in last race as he had at the start of his career. I would argue that he has a preference for two turns and an off track, neither of which will he be getting. The group looks like the sucker bet.
:2: (5/1) Trainer doesn't make it too much a rarity to wheel a horse back in 4 days. It seems he is good with the maneuver, and thinks the horse can return to previous form. If it does, it could be the one to beat. Closing style won't help though.
:3: (12/1) Pass.
:4: (12/1) When I look at his history I see a tired horse whose connections keep throwing him into the fray when he is clearly not ready to take it to his opponents. Bringing him to Saratoga won't do them any favors.
:5: (3/1) Having trouble seeing this career maiden winning now. I see no love for the 1 turn races.
:6: (30/1)
:7: (7/2)I just don't see what the line maker sees I suppose.
:8: (12/1) Has worked well for a good trainer. I like a good underdog story. a young filly for the short price of 1K taking a try at the bluebloods.
The Play: I like the 2. I get the feeling that he is good to go and just needed that prep to bring him back into the swing of things.
:2: $2-win, $4-place, $8-show
Just because I am pulling for the :8: , we'll box him with the 2. Maybe they saw something in this horse at the sales ring that others didn't. The good firster trainer may have even made the suggestion that the horse should be here. $2 Box :2: :8:
Race 10
Whitney Invitational H. (G1)
:1: Successful Dan (12/1) Still really good, he was squeezed at the start and was never competitive in last and settled for fourth. FL(:3:) took the last race with ease, and the result was a foregone conclusion when this one didn't get up close to compete. I don't think that start was indicative of what to expect today. If we give him a pass for that one, I feel he is a competitor today. He's been working really well, and has definitely been well rested. Maybe this can be his big race.
:2: Mucho Macho Man (6/1) Ran well last out in his prep race, and is capable of greatness. looks to be in good form, and has been in the money both times he has raced at Sar. There should be a decent pace on this race, so I like that he can be right up and close to the lead.
:3: Fort Larned (7/5) Should be really hard to beat, but not unbeatable. Should be able to get out of the gate and set the early fractions. I think we could be looking at a breeder's cup rematch. 1/1 at the spa, and is hot going into this race.
:4: Cross Traffic (5/2)Should be right up there with Larned for the early lead. While clearly a good horse, I think inexperience is a factor here and I don't think he can handle this kind of competition right now. I am happy he is here to at least make the 3 beatable, but I'm not high on this one. He is going 1 1/8 for the first time, and will have a champion breathing down his throat.
:5: Ron The Greek (6/1) I am a bit biased against this one for some reason, but it seems he refuses to show up for the big ones. I don't see a boiling pace happening to help him out. Undoubtedly he is good; I am just not buying into Ronny in this one.
:6: Alpha (10/1)Seems like he has managed to avoid the super tough horses that he meets today. Hasn't been going super hot as late, and I think we would have to see the best of Alphas for him to have a shot.
:7: Csaba (20/1) I am not so sure he is a G1 horse, but I think his best chance is up on the lead, so he may play a small role in what kind of pace we are looking at.
:8: Fast Falcon (15/1)Faces tougher than he did in last. Can't risk not being around mid-pack, and I think his chances are severely hurt around the first turn. Plus, he just isn't good enough.
The Play: I think the horses to reckon with are definitely the 1 2 and 3. Larned seems to be at the top of his game and should be hard to beat, but if there is a decent pace, MMM may just find himself in a showdown. The 1 looms the longshot threat.
$5 ex. :3: - :2: --$3 ex. :2: - :3: $1 ex. boxes :1: :2: and :1: :3:
Allowance 82000n2L
:1: (2/1) Fast enough to win at the level. Was laid off for a couple of months after the claim, and responded well in the 7F comeback race. I like the cutback to the 6 1/2 Furlongs, where he lost by less than a length to a good horse who just got 2nd in a 100k stakes race. I think going from n1x -->n2L is a drop, and he is clearly good enough to handle.
:2: (6/1) looks good going into 3rd off the layoff. Back to back races with improvement, and still has room to improve. Stepping up in class, but I think he can handle
:3: (15/1)Was within striking range in a stakes race, which was surprising based off of its past history. Clearly, the trainer feels the horse is on the up. The deep closing style won't help. It'll be dependent on the pace
:4: (7/2)Was favored over the turf, but didn't take to it. low odds suggest his pedigree supports it, so I don't question the motives. I assume they just figured it was worth a try. In general though, he hasn't really ran to the potential he had pre-claim. With declining early speed figures, I think it best to avoid the front-runner losing its front-running abilities
:5: (12/1) While being a career maiden, he was below even money in his 5 length maiden win. It sounds like he was up against nothing special, unlike this race. I can't see it, but the trainer's success at toga makes me wonder if this horse has improved. Saratoga workout times are slower than all previous works at 4F. It isn't that much of an indicator besides that the track won't probably make his race. Not saying it'll break it.
:6: (4/1) Has only worked twice since that miserable performance. I care little that they are bullet works. I get the feeling that they are having issues getting him into racing shape more than he has improved. He was fine before he was getting bullet works, and I don't believe the horse that entered the layoff on a sour note is coming back a better horse than ever.
:7: (8/1)meh. Had to take a big drop to break the maiden, and the work tab doesn't really compute with me.
:8: (8/1)Might provide some pressure, but he is stepping up in class off of a layoff in which his work tab isn't the most consistent. Hasn't really worked at 5F like I would like him to, and there is little reason to rest a lightly raced in form horse unless he was going bad.
The :1: looks really strong in this spot, and the :2: and :3: are OK. I feel confident in what they bring to the table
The Play: $1 1 / 2 3 / 2 3 4 5 --------$2 1 / 2 3
Race 2
MdnSpWt 80000
:1: (4/1) This one has got a poor first time starter trainer, and has never worked 5f despite the race distance of 6f.
:1a: (4/1)This one has got a bit better of a firster trainer, and has a good consistency in the work tab. Has his fair share of 5f works. The sales price was quadruple the sire average at the 2yo sale. He has worked a fair amount at Saratoga, and should be a good candidate to be a maiden winner here. Kind of confused why they entered him in with the two others, who don't seem too compelling to me.
1x (4/1)meh. Similar to the 1
:2: (20/1) Hasn't run to what he needs to run to to be competitive at this spot. Ran a good race though for a trainer that is nothing special with long time layoff horses. chance to improve 2nd start of 3yo campaign. The trainer hasn't brought the flock to Saratoga, or at least they haven't raced yet, so why else would he bring this one if he didn't think he had a chance.
:3: (4/1)Has ran to the par in three consecutive races, but is yet to be able to seal the deal. Looked like he was going to get a couple of those, but just couldn't get there. This one is definitely in form, but it is hard to say he'll win when he has had so many opportunities.
:4: (10/1)Surprised to see him at 10/1 ML. Good consistent works for what is almost a 20% firster trainer. He hasn't worked 5f, but the works are well spaced. He is by a good sire out of a 6/6 mare. I'll give him a shot.
:5: (5/2) 2nd start of 3yo season coming up. Ran well last out at a high level. Didn't race much as a 2yo, and still has plenty of room for improvement from a career aspect as well as a 2nd off layoff candidate.
:6: (8/1) Trainer hasn't really done it yet at Saratoga, and hasn't won yet with a comebacker. Recently took a 14 day layoff from the work tab after consistently working every seven days. In comparison to the others, his two works since the layup have been sub-par. Hard to say he is ready to win first out.
:7: (3/1) Ran a good first race and should be a contender. Trainer is really good with these types.
:8: (15/1)Not feeling it. Poor firster barn and a smaller stud fee for this one. Took an unorthodox work on turf...makes me wonder as to whether they are sure what surface he should race on.
I think I'll go with the :5: . A lot of upside form wise, and can come from a bit off of the pace. It is hard to tell where all of the speed is coming from, but I see three early speed horses in here and 5 first time starters that might get involved up front.
The Play: $2 5 / 1 2 3 4 7-------$1 1 2 3 4 7 / 5
Race 3
MdnClm 20000
:1: (2/1) He seems to like a fast dirt track, which is what it looks like he'll be getting, but it is clear that he has lost a lot of value in the eyes of the connections. Wasn't close in the slop, and this is Saratoga. You've got to be on your A+ game if you want to win. I just don't see that here.
:1a: (2/1) One more dropper for the barn. He handled the off track in last race as he had at the start of his career. I would argue that he has a preference for two turns and an off track, neither of which will he be getting. The group looks like the sucker bet.
:2: (5/1) Trainer doesn't make it too much a rarity to wheel a horse back in 4 days. It seems he is good with the maneuver, and thinks the horse can return to previous form. If it does, it could be the one to beat. Closing style won't help though.
:3: (12/1) Pass.
:4: (12/1) When I look at his history I see a tired horse whose connections keep throwing him into the fray when he is clearly not ready to take it to his opponents. Bringing him to Saratoga won't do them any favors.
:5: (3/1) Having trouble seeing this career maiden winning now. I see no love for the 1 turn races.
:6: (30/1)
:7: (7/2)I just don't see what the line maker sees I suppose.
:8: (12/1) Has worked well for a good trainer. I like a good underdog story. a young filly for the short price of 1K taking a try at the bluebloods.
The Play: I like the 2. I get the feeling that he is good to go and just needed that prep to bring him back into the swing of things.
:2: $2-win, $4-place, $8-show
Just because I am pulling for the :8: , we'll box him with the 2. Maybe they saw something in this horse at the sales ring that others didn't. The good firster trainer may have even made the suggestion that the horse should be here. $2 Box :2: :8:
Race 10
Whitney Invitational H. (G1)
:1: Successful Dan (12/1) Still really good, he was squeezed at the start and was never competitive in last and settled for fourth. FL(:3:) took the last race with ease, and the result was a foregone conclusion when this one didn't get up close to compete. I don't think that start was indicative of what to expect today. If we give him a pass for that one, I feel he is a competitor today. He's been working really well, and has definitely been well rested. Maybe this can be his big race.
:2: Mucho Macho Man (6/1) Ran well last out in his prep race, and is capable of greatness. looks to be in good form, and has been in the money both times he has raced at Sar. There should be a decent pace on this race, so I like that he can be right up and close to the lead.
:3: Fort Larned (7/5) Should be really hard to beat, but not unbeatable. Should be able to get out of the gate and set the early fractions. I think we could be looking at a breeder's cup rematch. 1/1 at the spa, and is hot going into this race.
:4: Cross Traffic (5/2)Should be right up there with Larned for the early lead. While clearly a good horse, I think inexperience is a factor here and I don't think he can handle this kind of competition right now. I am happy he is here to at least make the 3 beatable, but I'm not high on this one. He is going 1 1/8 for the first time, and will have a champion breathing down his throat.
:5: Ron The Greek (6/1) I am a bit biased against this one for some reason, but it seems he refuses to show up for the big ones. I don't see a boiling pace happening to help him out. Undoubtedly he is good; I am just not buying into Ronny in this one.
:6: Alpha (10/1)Seems like he has managed to avoid the super tough horses that he meets today. Hasn't been going super hot as late, and I think we would have to see the best of Alphas for him to have a shot.
:7: Csaba (20/1) I am not so sure he is a G1 horse, but I think his best chance is up on the lead, so he may play a small role in what kind of pace we are looking at.
:8: Fast Falcon (15/1)Faces tougher than he did in last. Can't risk not being around mid-pack, and I think his chances are severely hurt around the first turn. Plus, he just isn't good enough.
The Play: I think the horses to reckon with are definitely the 1 2 and 3. Larned seems to be at the top of his game and should be hard to beat, but if there is a decent pace, MMM may just find himself in a showdown. The 1 looms the longshot threat.
$5 ex. :3: - :2: --$3 ex. :2: - :3: $1 ex. boxes :1: :2: and :1: :3: