cordep17
08-02-2013, 03:12 PM
Just the analysis for the card for now. The definite plays will come Friday.
Race 1
Claiming3200b
:1: (2/1) Last three have been versus better, but this one showed declining form in last, and is returning for a lower claiming price and potential purse. While usually a speedster, it broke slow in last, so that could be part of the explanation. In the first two of the year, I feel he versed better and encountered traffic problems while being able to deal with them. Major contender who has experience from the rail.
:2: (6/1)I give this one a pass for his last race. Came out the gate in tight quarters and stumbled a bit. Tried to get up there and contest the leader, and it never looked like he was feeling it. Taking a step down to where he was in the previous two races with success.
:3: (30/1)Used to be competitive at the mile at Beu, but at FP he is dead as a log. If he can't be competitive at the preferred distance, what says he can be competitive at the same level at a shorter distance.
:4: (20/1)Has shown next to nothing so far this year, and has had his fair share of soft and fast paces, and shows nothing in either.
:5: (5/2)Tried to go a mile in last out and it really didn't pan out. Oh well. Worth a shot I suppose. has been very competitive at the level. He beat better in his comeback race, but hasn't quite put together the same performance in a number of races. He wasn't beaten a lot 2 ago, but it was only vs five and he was the heavy favorite. Didn't show up and finished 5 back in next to last. Then they tried the new distance...might be a good horse going bad.
:6: (8/5)I'm a bit curious as to what he is doing in this race. The exact same allowance level is racing later in the card, but his trainer has elected to put him up for claim. He hasn't performed poorly vs. allowance company, so I thought it was safe to assume he would return to vs. them again.----------------An iffy horse who might be used in exotics, but not the emphasis of any bets
PACE: The 6 has never broke exceptionally well (fast), but always races up there to compete at the first and second calls. Kind of the pace ?. May just take over or may not fire. The 5 will provide a bit of pressure from one or two off the pace. The 2 is kind of like the 6 in that he doesn't break exceptionally sharp. I see a potential bunch up at the front and a decent pace.
MAIN CONTENDER: :1: Alicia's Pretty Boy---has done well vs. better, and is one of the only in this race to have made a move at the front in the stretch. I feel confident in this one's reason for being here. Will either ladder or play in an exacta 1 / 2 5 6 and in vice versa.
Fairmount usually likes to make horses who deserve to be 50/1 15/1, and if they think the 6 deserves loads of respect, then we may get the 1 at 7/2ish
Race 2
Claiming3200n3L
:1: (5/1)I am a bit surprised to see 5/1 as the ML. Then again, I haven't looked at the 2. This horse has class, but hasn't quite been able to bit together a second at the level above him. The connections must be tired of using a good horse to get close thirds and fourths. The purse doesn't change much from claiming price-claiming price, so it isn't like they are leaving that much money on the table. The horse is a serious contender to take this race, and if he does, the new connections would have a tough time spotting this horse, so they could be thinking he is safe. What is concerning though is that he has lost a lot of his early speed funk. The horse is only 4, so I am surprised by this. He is close, but he might be regressing very slowly.
:2: (6/5)Has back to back good races at FP, one a win and the other a second. Both races being vs. better. So, what is the reasoning behind the drop to clm3200 just 10 days after last race? It is hard to know. Seems to outshine the group big time. It is hard to understand the motive, but the trainer is 30% with this type.
:3: (3/1)Looks like a logical contender. Closed into a slow pace and finished 3rd in last. Looked good, but never threatened to win. broke the n2L condition when there was a blazing pace.
:4: (7/2)Quite an interesting horse. This one has some mean back class, that is before the 2 yr layoff of course. After the first race back, the connections showed confidence raising him a step. The comments say he was fractious at the gate, and he never showed any run, staying at the back the whole time. They brought him back 15 days later to run a very competitive second. He has a good trainer who put him right back at where he was just successful. I don't see much speed to challenge him in this race. With the deserved time off and the low-class starting spot, I think this horse has some mean upside. The other's quality is pretty well know besides the 2. You never know. This one could once again work his way back up the ladder into the 15000 range. You know the others won't.
:5: (12/1) Took a sharp drop in class in the race that put him on the sidelines for a couple of years. He returned a couple of months ago only to be laid up again after a poor performance. a 6yo's whose career started 4 years ago should have more than 12 starts on the lifetime. I feel confident saying this has always been a problem horse whose best days are behind him.
:6: (20/1)Not quite sure I am following the morning line. This is a horse who performed well off of a claim and showed something it hasn't shown in a while. He has back class and can improve 2nd/3rd of the year.
PACE: Looks like the 4 is on his way to a lonesome lead.
With the uncertainty of who gets second, we'll probably just ladder him
OTHER CONTENDERS: 1 2 3(sort of) and the 6
maybe play an exacta 4-1 and 4-6 just because of value
Race 3
MaidenClaiming4000
:1: (8/1)Might be a value at 8/1+. Has finished 3rd in back to back at the level and distance. Neither performance being stellar, but hey, these aren't stellar horses and you take what you can get. Mid pack runner who won't alter the race too much.
:2: (6/5)Good horse coming into the claiming ranks from 2 MdnSpWt tries. He either wasn't sent out ready to win or didn't handle the mud in first try, but he displayed early speed and hung around for a distant fourth for the second try. He probably still has room for improvement, and the fractions he dealt with are a lot faster than your typical Fairmount MC fractions. I think he'll handle the drop well, and is the deserved favorite.
:3: (9/2)2nd time starter, and is returning in the same spot. Acted a closer in first out, but will probably be closer to the pace this time out. Lost the whip at the top of the stretch, and made up 7 or so lengths without it. Definitely one to watch. Improvement will come.
:4: (8/1)Fixing to be irrelevant
:5: (15/1)has never been too competitive, and is coming off of a layoff for a bad 1st off layoff trainer who only worked him once in that time. May have a bit of future success, but I can't see his time being now.
:6: (5/1)Didn't improve from 1st to 2nd start and is dropping again. Got a decently soft pace in last, and still faded to the back. While he and the 2 are both coming from the MdnSpWt level, this is no number 2.
:7: (6/1)That 2012-2013 layoff did this one no good. has competed vs plenty better, but has been very distant this year. An out of form horse, at least it appears that way to some ;) , that gives a hint that he may be getting it back. Interestingly, he used to be a speedster, and only in his last race did he show any of that....Could be a sign of regaining form. Should definitely be a value, and I doubt anyone else sees this.
THE CONTENDERS: 1 2 3 7
The 7 is the value. Perhaps we'll ladder him.
Race 5
Claiming3200b
:1: (8/1)Not overly impressed with what he has done lately. Is yet to finish strong in a number of races. Not in the best of form, but the class is slightly getting easier as we get further into the meet, but it is still not enough to make this one win again.
:2: (2/1)Early speed. Has been better vs. better. The speed of the speed, but there should be enough speed in here to bother this one enough to open this race up to a longer shot.
:3: (8/1) Is in good form. Has won 2 of his last 3. Ran a decent one at the level in which he was between 3 and 5 lengths from the leader at all times. I like this one a lot, and feel confident calling on him to deliver a good effort. I like the 1/2 furlong cut back. Should be able to let the speed get a little further away from him, and he will be closer to the distance in which he won back to back races, 5F.
:4: (3/1)Should be pressing the leaders. In good form coming off of a win, but I am not sure about this class hike. Got to set a slow pace to get out of the n3L condition, and I don't see that happening today.
:5: (9/2) One more front runner who just broke the n3L condition. Again, the class hike will make it harder for him to set a slow pace and lead around the track. For each one of these, their counterpart's chances are diminishing.
:6: (7/2)Should provide some pressure, but is on the decline. I think it is best to avoid this one.
:7: (20/1)Could provide a little bit of pressure, but it has been a long time since this one has been close. No way he sticks around today.
PACE: I see the 5 4 2 all looking to go to the lead. The 7 kind of wants it but wont be good enough, but will provide pressure to probably the 1st call and a 1/2. The 6 is a ?. May provide more pressure or less than what I am expecting. Refer back to the 3's post as to why this race works for him.
We'll Probably be looking to ladder the 3.
Race 6
Allowance8000n1x
:1: (5/1)Has only hit the par once at a different level and different distance. Has never approached par in a sprint. Closing style is beneficial. If this is a race of styles, he has the benefit. Yet to prove he can handle this kind of competition.
:2: (12/1)Took eight tries to get out of the MdnClm5000, and followed it up with a win at the 5000n2l level. In last, was beaten handily at the allowance level, and the trainer has decided to try it again. I suppose he has trainer confidence going for him. Even though he was never close in proportion to the winner, he did manage to beat half the field in last. It may not be a stretch to say he deserves another try at allowance company. Throughout his 10 races, the best he has come within par is 10pts.
:3: (5/2)Was in the same race as the 2, and finished 6 lengths ahead of him. Was always close to the pace in that race, and went into it after being competitive vs. Clm25000n2L company. The trainer clearly thinks highly of this one, being that he tried 2 stakes races. He has been within 3pts of par plenty of times vs. comparable and better.
:4: (6/1) Should be right up there with the leaders. Has been close at the level, but that was a while back, and from what I have seen in his recent past, all three of the horses above him could handle the classes he has been losing in. It seems he will certainly speed things up. Playing more of a spoiler rather than a real contender.
:5: (4/1)One more to speed things up. Has ran at the same level in his last two, finishing 3 and 5. Not overly impressed and I've got little reason to suspect improvement. Seems like he is declining and could have competed at a better class level 5 races or so ago.
:6: (2/1)Third time starter for the dreaded Scott Becker- Bill Stiritz combo with the leading rider. After first start, went up in class and won going away. Massive improvement between those starts makes this one the one to beat. Also a speed ball.
PACE: The 5 and 6 both definitely are headed for the lead. The 2 probably didn't fire in last. He has been on the lead in races with similar fractions. It makes little sense why he was 6 or so lengths back in last. Trainer confidence makes me confident that he will at least be close enough to disturb things. This seems like a good group of Alwn1x runners. The 4 seems to also do his best work close to the lead. The 2 and the 4 will be worn out. the 6 will carry his talent. The 5'll fade. the 1 and 3 will pick up the pieces.
We will probably be looking at a trifecta 2 6 / 2 6 / 1 5
Race 7
MaidenSpecialWeight8000
:1: (4/1) Off the claim, it hasn't responded great to the new trainer. In last race, it finished 22 back in next to last. I think he is a bit more competitive than what he showed. Usually closer to the pace, it looked like he was being rushed the whole time, and this isn't a horse you would expect to try to make a move before the turn. I'll call him a loose contender, being that his trainer is keeping him there and he has been competitive versus better.
:2: (2/1)Our favorite has never been closer than 8 and 1/4 lengths within the winner. Broke really poorly in last, but rallied basically the whole race to finish a distant second. An impressive race that was only 2 weeks ago. That is the usual time between starts for this one, but he tried so hard in last to run the best he ever has. May regress.
:3: (6/1)Becker-Stiritz. Taking a drop, but not a drastic drop. It all depends on what you think happened during the layoff. Being that he was facing similar, and he has only worked once over the track, I expect a fresher horse that may need one or two.
:4: (10/1)Started at a high level, where he was never competitive. Finally, he found his sweet spot in the MdnClm ranks, but right after a good race was tossed up into the MdnSpWt ranks. Ran poorly, and the horses that finished 2nd and 3rd are here to face him again.
:5: (12/1) Last three races have been vs. similar, and has never been competitive at any point in any of those races.
:6: (3/1) beaten by the ML favorite in last, but this one has the upside. It'll be his 3rd start lifetime, and he significantly improved his race figure from race 1 to 2. In his last, there was a dominant winner, so
:7: (6/1) Also has a shot. If he runs a 6f MdnSpWt race like he did on multiple occasions last year, he can win. He didn't show up in the last race, but that was his first since 2012 for a trainer who isn't the best with comebackers. May improve second off the layoff.
PACE: The one is probably not in the best of form, and won't feel comfortable chasing others, so he is an out on pace. I suspect they will clump up at the front, hanging a few out wide. I would say that there is enough variation in readiness that a hole will open up, and horses such as the 4 and the 2 won't have to go 6 wide to get a clear path.
We'll probably be looking at an exacta 2 / 3 4 6 7
Race 8
Claiming4000n2L
:1: (5/2)Very much so an early speed type. Has been very competitive vs. better, and is on the drop. Not sure how else to explain it except for the horse is on the decline and up for sale. Performed his worst at the horse's lowest class for the trainer and is dropping again.
:2: (30/1) off the two year layoff, he ran better than I would have expected. Chance to improve for a trainer who doesn't get much success. Was definitely not sent out with 100% expectations last out, but ran well. Chance to improve on that might give this one a shot.
:3: (30/1)Also 30/1 ML, I'll take the 2 every day of the week. You know what you are getting with this one, and I want no part of it. Trainer has been in the money once in 30 starts this year.
:4: (6/5) Early runner who is good at the class. Almost always finishes second at the level since crackin' that maiden. If we can find someone to beat him, might get a value.
:5: (20/1)I'll reiterate what I said for the 3 horse.
:6: (6/1) I'll probably pass on this one too. Just doesn't look ready to win. Has a whole lot of lackluster performances stringed together. What says today is the day?
:7: (9/2)Has been ok at the level. Usually stalks the leaders. In good form, and makes it easy to be confident in what you are betting on.
:8: (15/1)Has a couple of excuses for the last two.
PACE: The four should get the early lead if I am right in that the 1 won't be too pushy.
4 / 1 2 7 8 and in vice versa....probably
Race 1
Claiming3200b
:1: (2/1) Last three have been versus better, but this one showed declining form in last, and is returning for a lower claiming price and potential purse. While usually a speedster, it broke slow in last, so that could be part of the explanation. In the first two of the year, I feel he versed better and encountered traffic problems while being able to deal with them. Major contender who has experience from the rail.
:2: (6/1)I give this one a pass for his last race. Came out the gate in tight quarters and stumbled a bit. Tried to get up there and contest the leader, and it never looked like he was feeling it. Taking a step down to where he was in the previous two races with success.
:3: (30/1)Used to be competitive at the mile at Beu, but at FP he is dead as a log. If he can't be competitive at the preferred distance, what says he can be competitive at the same level at a shorter distance.
:4: (20/1)Has shown next to nothing so far this year, and has had his fair share of soft and fast paces, and shows nothing in either.
:5: (5/2)Tried to go a mile in last out and it really didn't pan out. Oh well. Worth a shot I suppose. has been very competitive at the level. He beat better in his comeback race, but hasn't quite put together the same performance in a number of races. He wasn't beaten a lot 2 ago, but it was only vs five and he was the heavy favorite. Didn't show up and finished 5 back in next to last. Then they tried the new distance...might be a good horse going bad.
:6: (8/5)I'm a bit curious as to what he is doing in this race. The exact same allowance level is racing later in the card, but his trainer has elected to put him up for claim. He hasn't performed poorly vs. allowance company, so I thought it was safe to assume he would return to vs. them again.----------------An iffy horse who might be used in exotics, but not the emphasis of any bets
PACE: The 6 has never broke exceptionally well (fast), but always races up there to compete at the first and second calls. Kind of the pace ?. May just take over or may not fire. The 5 will provide a bit of pressure from one or two off the pace. The 2 is kind of like the 6 in that he doesn't break exceptionally sharp. I see a potential bunch up at the front and a decent pace.
MAIN CONTENDER: :1: Alicia's Pretty Boy---has done well vs. better, and is one of the only in this race to have made a move at the front in the stretch. I feel confident in this one's reason for being here. Will either ladder or play in an exacta 1 / 2 5 6 and in vice versa.
Fairmount usually likes to make horses who deserve to be 50/1 15/1, and if they think the 6 deserves loads of respect, then we may get the 1 at 7/2ish
Race 2
Claiming3200n3L
:1: (5/1)I am a bit surprised to see 5/1 as the ML. Then again, I haven't looked at the 2. This horse has class, but hasn't quite been able to bit together a second at the level above him. The connections must be tired of using a good horse to get close thirds and fourths. The purse doesn't change much from claiming price-claiming price, so it isn't like they are leaving that much money on the table. The horse is a serious contender to take this race, and if he does, the new connections would have a tough time spotting this horse, so they could be thinking he is safe. What is concerning though is that he has lost a lot of his early speed funk. The horse is only 4, so I am surprised by this. He is close, but he might be regressing very slowly.
:2: (6/5)Has back to back good races at FP, one a win and the other a second. Both races being vs. better. So, what is the reasoning behind the drop to clm3200 just 10 days after last race? It is hard to know. Seems to outshine the group big time. It is hard to understand the motive, but the trainer is 30% with this type.
:3: (3/1)Looks like a logical contender. Closed into a slow pace and finished 3rd in last. Looked good, but never threatened to win. broke the n2L condition when there was a blazing pace.
:4: (7/2)Quite an interesting horse. This one has some mean back class, that is before the 2 yr layoff of course. After the first race back, the connections showed confidence raising him a step. The comments say he was fractious at the gate, and he never showed any run, staying at the back the whole time. They brought him back 15 days later to run a very competitive second. He has a good trainer who put him right back at where he was just successful. I don't see much speed to challenge him in this race. With the deserved time off and the low-class starting spot, I think this horse has some mean upside. The other's quality is pretty well know besides the 2. You never know. This one could once again work his way back up the ladder into the 15000 range. You know the others won't.
:5: (12/1) Took a sharp drop in class in the race that put him on the sidelines for a couple of years. He returned a couple of months ago only to be laid up again after a poor performance. a 6yo's whose career started 4 years ago should have more than 12 starts on the lifetime. I feel confident saying this has always been a problem horse whose best days are behind him.
:6: (20/1)Not quite sure I am following the morning line. This is a horse who performed well off of a claim and showed something it hasn't shown in a while. He has back class and can improve 2nd/3rd of the year.
PACE: Looks like the 4 is on his way to a lonesome lead.
With the uncertainty of who gets second, we'll probably just ladder him
OTHER CONTENDERS: 1 2 3(sort of) and the 6
maybe play an exacta 4-1 and 4-6 just because of value
Race 3
MaidenClaiming4000
:1: (8/1)Might be a value at 8/1+. Has finished 3rd in back to back at the level and distance. Neither performance being stellar, but hey, these aren't stellar horses and you take what you can get. Mid pack runner who won't alter the race too much.
:2: (6/5)Good horse coming into the claiming ranks from 2 MdnSpWt tries. He either wasn't sent out ready to win or didn't handle the mud in first try, but he displayed early speed and hung around for a distant fourth for the second try. He probably still has room for improvement, and the fractions he dealt with are a lot faster than your typical Fairmount MC fractions. I think he'll handle the drop well, and is the deserved favorite.
:3: (9/2)2nd time starter, and is returning in the same spot. Acted a closer in first out, but will probably be closer to the pace this time out. Lost the whip at the top of the stretch, and made up 7 or so lengths without it. Definitely one to watch. Improvement will come.
:4: (8/1)Fixing to be irrelevant
:5: (15/1)has never been too competitive, and is coming off of a layoff for a bad 1st off layoff trainer who only worked him once in that time. May have a bit of future success, but I can't see his time being now.
:6: (5/1)Didn't improve from 1st to 2nd start and is dropping again. Got a decently soft pace in last, and still faded to the back. While he and the 2 are both coming from the MdnSpWt level, this is no number 2.
:7: (6/1)That 2012-2013 layoff did this one no good. has competed vs plenty better, but has been very distant this year. An out of form horse, at least it appears that way to some ;) , that gives a hint that he may be getting it back. Interestingly, he used to be a speedster, and only in his last race did he show any of that....Could be a sign of regaining form. Should definitely be a value, and I doubt anyone else sees this.
THE CONTENDERS: 1 2 3 7
The 7 is the value. Perhaps we'll ladder him.
Race 5
Claiming3200b
:1: (8/1)Not overly impressed with what he has done lately. Is yet to finish strong in a number of races. Not in the best of form, but the class is slightly getting easier as we get further into the meet, but it is still not enough to make this one win again.
:2: (2/1)Early speed. Has been better vs. better. The speed of the speed, but there should be enough speed in here to bother this one enough to open this race up to a longer shot.
:3: (8/1) Is in good form. Has won 2 of his last 3. Ran a decent one at the level in which he was between 3 and 5 lengths from the leader at all times. I like this one a lot, and feel confident calling on him to deliver a good effort. I like the 1/2 furlong cut back. Should be able to let the speed get a little further away from him, and he will be closer to the distance in which he won back to back races, 5F.
:4: (3/1)Should be pressing the leaders. In good form coming off of a win, but I am not sure about this class hike. Got to set a slow pace to get out of the n3L condition, and I don't see that happening today.
:5: (9/2) One more front runner who just broke the n3L condition. Again, the class hike will make it harder for him to set a slow pace and lead around the track. For each one of these, their counterpart's chances are diminishing.
:6: (7/2)Should provide some pressure, but is on the decline. I think it is best to avoid this one.
:7: (20/1)Could provide a little bit of pressure, but it has been a long time since this one has been close. No way he sticks around today.
PACE: I see the 5 4 2 all looking to go to the lead. The 7 kind of wants it but wont be good enough, but will provide pressure to probably the 1st call and a 1/2. The 6 is a ?. May provide more pressure or less than what I am expecting. Refer back to the 3's post as to why this race works for him.
We'll Probably be looking to ladder the 3.
Race 6
Allowance8000n1x
:1: (5/1)Has only hit the par once at a different level and different distance. Has never approached par in a sprint. Closing style is beneficial. If this is a race of styles, he has the benefit. Yet to prove he can handle this kind of competition.
:2: (12/1)Took eight tries to get out of the MdnClm5000, and followed it up with a win at the 5000n2l level. In last, was beaten handily at the allowance level, and the trainer has decided to try it again. I suppose he has trainer confidence going for him. Even though he was never close in proportion to the winner, he did manage to beat half the field in last. It may not be a stretch to say he deserves another try at allowance company. Throughout his 10 races, the best he has come within par is 10pts.
:3: (5/2)Was in the same race as the 2, and finished 6 lengths ahead of him. Was always close to the pace in that race, and went into it after being competitive vs. Clm25000n2L company. The trainer clearly thinks highly of this one, being that he tried 2 stakes races. He has been within 3pts of par plenty of times vs. comparable and better.
:4: (6/1) Should be right up there with the leaders. Has been close at the level, but that was a while back, and from what I have seen in his recent past, all three of the horses above him could handle the classes he has been losing in. It seems he will certainly speed things up. Playing more of a spoiler rather than a real contender.
:5: (4/1)One more to speed things up. Has ran at the same level in his last two, finishing 3 and 5. Not overly impressed and I've got little reason to suspect improvement. Seems like he is declining and could have competed at a better class level 5 races or so ago.
:6: (2/1)Third time starter for the dreaded Scott Becker- Bill Stiritz combo with the leading rider. After first start, went up in class and won going away. Massive improvement between those starts makes this one the one to beat. Also a speed ball.
PACE: The 5 and 6 both definitely are headed for the lead. The 2 probably didn't fire in last. He has been on the lead in races with similar fractions. It makes little sense why he was 6 or so lengths back in last. Trainer confidence makes me confident that he will at least be close enough to disturb things. This seems like a good group of Alwn1x runners. The 4 seems to also do his best work close to the lead. The 2 and the 4 will be worn out. the 6 will carry his talent. The 5'll fade. the 1 and 3 will pick up the pieces.
We will probably be looking at a trifecta 2 6 / 2 6 / 1 5
Race 7
MaidenSpecialWeight8000
:1: (4/1) Off the claim, it hasn't responded great to the new trainer. In last race, it finished 22 back in next to last. I think he is a bit more competitive than what he showed. Usually closer to the pace, it looked like he was being rushed the whole time, and this isn't a horse you would expect to try to make a move before the turn. I'll call him a loose contender, being that his trainer is keeping him there and he has been competitive versus better.
:2: (2/1)Our favorite has never been closer than 8 and 1/4 lengths within the winner. Broke really poorly in last, but rallied basically the whole race to finish a distant second. An impressive race that was only 2 weeks ago. That is the usual time between starts for this one, but he tried so hard in last to run the best he ever has. May regress.
:3: (6/1)Becker-Stiritz. Taking a drop, but not a drastic drop. It all depends on what you think happened during the layoff. Being that he was facing similar, and he has only worked once over the track, I expect a fresher horse that may need one or two.
:4: (10/1)Started at a high level, where he was never competitive. Finally, he found his sweet spot in the MdnClm ranks, but right after a good race was tossed up into the MdnSpWt ranks. Ran poorly, and the horses that finished 2nd and 3rd are here to face him again.
:5: (12/1) Last three races have been vs. similar, and has never been competitive at any point in any of those races.
:6: (3/1) beaten by the ML favorite in last, but this one has the upside. It'll be his 3rd start lifetime, and he significantly improved his race figure from race 1 to 2. In his last, there was a dominant winner, so
:7: (6/1) Also has a shot. If he runs a 6f MdnSpWt race like he did on multiple occasions last year, he can win. He didn't show up in the last race, but that was his first since 2012 for a trainer who isn't the best with comebackers. May improve second off the layoff.
PACE: The one is probably not in the best of form, and won't feel comfortable chasing others, so he is an out on pace. I suspect they will clump up at the front, hanging a few out wide. I would say that there is enough variation in readiness that a hole will open up, and horses such as the 4 and the 2 won't have to go 6 wide to get a clear path.
We'll probably be looking at an exacta 2 / 3 4 6 7
Race 8
Claiming4000n2L
:1: (5/2)Very much so an early speed type. Has been very competitive vs. better, and is on the drop. Not sure how else to explain it except for the horse is on the decline and up for sale. Performed his worst at the horse's lowest class for the trainer and is dropping again.
:2: (30/1) off the two year layoff, he ran better than I would have expected. Chance to improve for a trainer who doesn't get much success. Was definitely not sent out with 100% expectations last out, but ran well. Chance to improve on that might give this one a shot.
:3: (30/1)Also 30/1 ML, I'll take the 2 every day of the week. You know what you are getting with this one, and I want no part of it. Trainer has been in the money once in 30 starts this year.
:4: (6/5) Early runner who is good at the class. Almost always finishes second at the level since crackin' that maiden. If we can find someone to beat him, might get a value.
:5: (20/1)I'll reiterate what I said for the 3 horse.
:6: (6/1) I'll probably pass on this one too. Just doesn't look ready to win. Has a whole lot of lackluster performances stringed together. What says today is the day?
:7: (9/2)Has been ok at the level. Usually stalks the leaders. In good form, and makes it easy to be confident in what you are betting on.
:8: (15/1)Has a couple of excuses for the last two.
PACE: The four should get the early lead if I am right in that the 1 won't be too pushy.
4 / 1 2 7 8 and in vice versa....probably