Where will the S&P 500 be Nov. 1, 2013

[whodoyoulike]

I'm certain a large number of PaceAdvantage members are interested in the U.S. stock market. I'd like to present a series of polls every three months or so to see if we're able to handicap the stock market better than the highly paid economists. One of the attributes I respect about horse players / stock traders / gamblers is we are willing to back our opinions with our money.

I'm hoping a large number of members will participate.

As of July 27, 2013 the S&P 500 closed at 1691.65

Thanks for participating.

[Clocker]

Insufficient data for even a wild guess. The sole driver of the stock market right now is the Federal Reserve. It is highly unlikely that the fundamentals of the economy will change between now and then, so I assume that the Fed will continue to drive the market.

Bernanke's term as Fed Chairman ends on 1/31/2014. He doesn't seem to want another term, and even if he did, it appears highly unlikely that Obama would give it to him. The White House has indicated that an announcement will be made in the fall, probably late September to early October. Assuming an announcement is made in that time frame, the announcement and the speculation about its effect on the economy will determine where the market is in November.

[JustRalph]

Wherever Bernanke wants it to be

All he has to do is open his mouth and he can move the market up or down.

It illustrates the real corrupt nature of the system

[HUSKER55]

sooner or later the chickens come home to roost. I don't see how our government can continue like this.

[Shemp Howard]

Let me consult with President Obama and his Wall Street backers and I'll get back to you.

[elysiantraveller]

Wherever Bernanke wants it to be

All he has to do is open his mouth and he can move the market up or down.

It illustrates the real corrupt nature of the system

:ThmbUp:

We live in a system where bad news is good news. The market is not overvalued.

[PaceAdvantage]

They say there is a lot of money sitting on the sidelines, and retail hasn't participated much in this run up...and they still haven't...look at the volume...it's just not there....

So, this house of cards could collapse quite easily, OR, all that money on the sidelines could decide to start pouring into the markets.

As always, it's not an easy call.

But until I start seeing some volume, I will continue to think we're headed down...and with that said, there is no reason to think the plunge is coming anytime soon...but of course, it is coming...

[highnote]

My model (actually, Martin Zweig's model that I update myself) says that the market is going higher.

The prime rate is still very low at 3.25% and even if it is raised by a point or two it will still be low compared to historical rates.

The federal reserve discount rate is only 0.75%. Same scenario as the prime rate.

The installment debt is low.

The S&P is high, but the climb has been slow and steady and the VIX is relatively low. There is not a lot of volatility.

I don't see any signs of a crash happening soon.

I see a slight gain by Nov 1, but nothing major.

[BlueShoe]

Still a bear, voted down over 10%. Market up too far, too fast, driven by the Fed, not fundamentals. Overdue for a major correction. Perhaps not by Nov. 1st, the poll date, but for sure by year's end.

[elysiantraveller]

Balance sheets are still great so it's hard to argue the top is in especially with all the money on the sidelines.

[Clocker]

Market up too far, too fast, driven by the Fed, not fundamentals.

Agree. This looks like another bubble driven by artificially low interest rates. Fund managers are under big pressure for returns, and stocks are the only game in town right now.

Corporations and big banks are sitting on cash because of uncertainty about the Fed and a new Chairman, ObamaCare regulations, EPA regulations, Dodd-Frank regulations, etc.

[whodoyoulike]

As I post this, the S&P 500 is 1705.42.

I'd like to thank everyone who has voted and/or commented so far.

[lamboguy]

for many years the strength of the UNITED STATES was measured by the advance of the DJIA and the S+P, and since the dollar is the reserve currency of the world, the lower the price of gold to the dollar the better.
right now the price of gold is at historic lows while the dollar is close to lows vs. other currency's. i don't know when, but something has to give at some point.

the reason why i am saying that gold is at historically low levels now is because this is the smallest margin of all time between gold and the cost to mine it. the reason why gold is so important is because every single ounce that has ever been mined is still here on this earth. i suspect it will be around 5000 years from now.