Handicapping software with "trackers" or "modelers"

[trying2win]

I've read some ads of some handicapping software programs, that are lauding the virtures of their added "trackers" or "modelers". Can someone enlighten me about what these added features to handicapping programs accomplish? Are they just a feature to track where the winners are coming from, such as a track profile does....or ???

I don't how many handicapping software programs that have this "tracker" or "modeler" feature. Does anyone know? It appears that there is an an added cost to horse players, wanting to have this extra feature in a handicapping software program. Don't know whether it's worth it or not though.

Thanks,

T2W

[Maxspa]

Tryntowin,
All-In-One has a modeler! The Horsetalk Forum at www.cynthiapublishing .com has a section called the All-In-One V6. The resource person called the Code Monkey explains the setup and operation of the Modeler. You might be interested in his dialogue. Hope this helps!
I'm in no way trying to encourage anyone to buy the product but am only trying to give information in regard to your request.
Maxspa

[trying2win]

Maxspa,

Thanks for the info. Your link didn't work when I tried it. Now I see why. There's a space just before the .com
Anyways, I should be able to get to the site okay, though. I'll see what's there.

Thanks,

T2W

[Secretariat]

A modeler allows one to see what has been winning. A good modeler allows for multiple filtering of criteria.

If you have difficulty with indecision than a modeler can help. Past results are not gurantee of a future event, but they can help point out bad bets as well as good ones.

Some people prefer he odds line approach and look for overlays or look for trainer, jockey breeder specialties. They're lots of different ways. Go with what's comfortable to you. Some prefer a more intuitive approach based on condtions analysis.

I begun with my modeler pick, and then do an analysis of conditions to see if anyone can beat him, or he looks solid. Generally, I follow Mark Cramer's advice and demand a 1.50 ROI off my modeler pick. You never get that put it builds in a lot of room for error.

[trying2win]

Originally posted by Secretariat
A modeler allows one to see what has been winning. A good modeler allows for multiple filtering of criteria.


Secretariat,

Could you explain that a bit further? Do you mean a modeler is just the same as a track profile, or is there more to it than that?

Thanks,

T2W

[shanta]

a track profile lets you know whats going on at the track(winners running style and positioning at the 1st and 2nd calls,median energy,post position biases etc). a model handicaps you. if you are using software for example you would have readouts for early,late,hidden energy, median energy,etc,etc. what you do is after the race is run enter the winners rankings in the various categories that you can track by whatever method you are using. then you simply wait until your model is showing the winner very often in certain categories at a good return and bet them!
Richie

[cato]

Shanta is using the definitions from the Sartin group for profile and model.

IMO, the terms, for obvious reasons, have been confused and mixed over the years and are used differently by different groups and people.

In any event there are two things to keep track of:

what's winning (or losing) at the track
what's winning (orlosing) in your readouts, rankings, etc.

Cato

[trying2win]

Shanta and Cato,

Thanks for your replies. That clarifies things a lot.


Regards,

T2W

[Secretariat]

To me, here's the difference:

Here's how a profile might work. You determine that horses winning have been running an avergage of two lengths behind at the second call overa recent period of time indicating perhaps an early speed bias.

The profile examines common base factors. For example, say you have your own derived speed calculation, derived class calculation, etc. and you model how these do, rather than just how the winner does.

You may find for example with a profile that winning horses show a 27% hit rate when high Bris speed with a loss on the dollar of say 10 cents. In a model you may be looking not at the winner, but at the top Bris speed adjusted by your calculation to see how your adjusted factor does.

Best of luck to you.

btw..some users eschew the modeling component, and look for overlays on either an intuitive or calculated oddsline. Generally with models you "feel" you are betting on the best horse which meets your parameters (win%, ROI, etc.), but with playing overlays sometimes you might being playing a horse which is not your top play, but is a better value play. Sartin used to use the Decision Model approach, but later seemed to switch to a Bottom line Betting Line approach playing the best two overlays out of the top four contenders. Even something described as simple as that could lead to some indecision on what exactly constitutes the best two. I did not upgrade from Synthesis to Validator because I didn't want to be forced to swtich to TrackMaster, but there has been a lot of posting on that program here and there are users who could give you more info on Sartin's last approach to selection. Of course there are the tote players as well.

I would be curious where most users place thier emphasis: Modeling, OddLine approaches, Tote, Angle specialties including those of Trainer/Speciaties, race conditions anaylsis, or whatever. Even software programs sort of lean in one direction or the other.

[trying2win]

Secretariat,

Thanks for your comments. It's interesting to see that there's a lot of different scenarios a horseplayer can look at, when using a handicapping program with a "modeling" feature. I don't know how many programs on the market have this kind of feature though.

T2W

[Secretariat]

Well, a lot of programs have some sort of modeling features. Figuring out what you need is important. I began with Brohamer's program awhile back, and then was involved with the Sartin group for a bit (even wrote a few Follow Up articles) until I began programming my own stuff which I currently use.

The question I would ask before purchasing any modeling program is:

a. Ease of Use
b. Time involved modeling
c. Number of Factors
d. Filtering Features
e. Black Box Capability
f. Comparision of Modeling Factor
g. Data supplier costs
h. Live Help support and email support
i. Costs

I'm sure others would have other input as well if you pursue the modeling part. I'd even ask your seller to see if he could put you in contact with some power users who mgiht be able to give you a user perspective.

[GR1@HTR]

Here is an example of a modeler from HTR. Dirt Sprints w/ manual PL selection w/ MLO 5-1 and above. ROI 1.00 is breakeven.

ITEM Plays Wins WN% $ROI WP% Long-%W-High
--------------------------------------------------
K-1 00056 0009 16% 0.83 32% 0002 22 $17
K-2 00180 0034 19% 1.08 33% 0007 21 $21
K-3 00311 0042 14% 0.88 29% 0011 26 $30
K-4 00449 0047 10% 0.94 27% 0027 57 $48
K-5 00538 0050 09% 1.01 19% 0028 56 $106
K-6 00553 0031 06% 0.83 13% 0025 81 $79
K-7 00520 0023 04% 0.82 11% 0020 87 $118
K-8 00419 0015 04% 0.67 08% 0013 87 $99
K-9 00710 0016 02% 0.44 06% 0013 81 $108

K110 00001 0000 00% 0.00 00% 0000

$ 00729 0036 05% 0.74 13% 0025 69 $99
$$ 00575 0073 13% 1.14 25% 0033 45 $118

FR1-1 00312 0038 12% 1.28 23% 0011 29 $118
FR1-2 00352 0038 11% 1.00 23% 0013 34 $56

E/P-1 00273 0037 14% 1.33 26% 0008 22 $118
E/P-2 00309 0035 11% 1.04 22% 0011 31 $75

A/P-1 00152 0029 19% 1.22 33% 0004 14 $32
A/P-2 00259 0035 14% 0.93 27% 0006 17 $37

S/P-1 00181 0023 13% 0.86 27% 0005 22 $32
S/P-2 00262 0034 13% 1.02 26% 0008 24 $53

L/P-1 00265 0024 09% 1.01 20% 0009 38 $99
L/P-2 00277 0028 10% 0.85 23% 0005 18 $59

FR3-1 00284 0019 07% 0.61 17% 0006 32 $53
FR3-2 00304 0039 13% 1.06 26% 0011 28 $52

VEL-1 00157 0027 17% 1.07 31% 0003 11 $32
VEL-2 00272 0034 13% 0.94 26% 0007 21 $53

C90-1 00231 0030 13% 0.97 25% 0006 20 $48
C90-2 00319 0037 12% 1.09 24% 0012 32 $79

HTR-1 00135 0031 23% 1.31 39% 0003 10 $32
HTR-2 00238 0032 13% 0.93 28% 0004 13 $54

WRK-1 00383 0030 08% 0.66 18% 0007 23 $48
WRK-2 00385 0034 09% 0.83 19% 0011 32 $75
WK80+ 00688 0058 08% 0.82 19% 0020 34 $75
WK85+ 00187 0016 09% 0.68 20% 0004 25 $41

TRN-1 00238 0032 13% 0.92 27% 0005 16 $41
TRN-2 00341 0042 12% 1.07 23% 0008 19 $108
T350+ 00230 0029 13% 0.97 25% 0006 21 $39

JKY-1 00281 0036 13% 1.04 25% 0009 25 $60
JKY-2 00329 0033 10% 0.97 20% 0008 24 $103
J300+ 00726 0077 11% 1.01 23% 0021 27 $103

PED-1 00378 0038 10% 1.09 18% 0010 26 $99
PED-2 00381 0031 08% 0.86 19% 0011 35 $75
P450+ 00862 0084 10% 1.10 19% 0028 33 $108

MLO-1 00002 0000 00% 0.00 00% 0000
MLO-2 00056 0008 14% 0.66 36% 0000 00 $16

Pscan Range Plays Won Wn% $ROI Long-High
--------------------------------------------------
0 to -1.99 00474 057 12% 0.85 0018 $48
-2 to -3.99 00683 073 11% 0.92 0029 $106
-4 to -5.99 00884 066 07% 0.86 0043 $103
-6 to -9.99 01695 071 04% 0.69 0056 $118

Races Tested: 625
Longshot Wins($15+)= 25%
Tournament Rating = 55

TRK: ALL D/S: Fast Dirt Sprints
Type: Alw/Stk Clm Msw Mcl Age: 2yr 3yr 3up/4up Sex: Female Male
P/L: 0 Vi: Any
ML 5/1+ Only