Where do they find these morning line oddsmakers?

[redeye007]

It is a shame that southern california cannot seem to employ a professional morning line oddsmaker that can at least read the daily racing form past performance records of the entrants. I noticed on at least 2 occasions last week at Del Mar in the nightcap the the morning line favorite in a maiden race had a record of 0-25 starts and in another nightcap 0-14 starts and were 4 year olds in an event for 3 year olds and up. If these animals have lived this long without winning there is little chance they will ever win. they did manage to finish off the board as the public was misled again. I am seeing this over and over. In the past the morning line favorite was chosen for its superior record but that isn't the case anymore. there seems to a lot of speculation by these folks rather than reality or is this the work of a computer program!

[wiffleball whizz]

I know I'm gonna get the "if your relying on morning line odds" you shouldn't be betting speech but I'm with OP here and agree these ml makers should be held to a higher standard.......also I know some people here make thee own lines but some bettors aren't as advanced....

Just think of all the money that gets singled on pick 4 when they see 6/5 ml....in my opinion a 6/5 ml = 3/5 or less.....sick and tired of seeing public misled and everybody gets a pass.....no more passes people gotta be held accountable and things looked into more.....

Example (sorry cj) the ml maker at Yonkers who has been the Yonkers publicity manager and track line maker since prob 1975 frank drucker thinks he's slick.....during the pk4 he will make a obvious pk4 race a horse 12/1 that he knows will be 4/5-8/5.....now all the public handicapping totally dismisses this horse and bang he wins and people get knocked out....trust me nobody knows more about yOnkers then this guy....

Then he will make a horse 8/5ml that goes off 7/1 and is nowheresville louisiana....And this happens other places too

[dkithore]

I know I'm gonna get the "if your relying on morning line odds" you shouldn't be betting speech but I'm with OP here and agree these ml makers should be held to a higher standard.......also I know some people here make thee own lines but some bettors aren't as advanced....

Just think of all the money that gets singled on pick 4 when they see 6/5 ml....in my opinion a 6/5 ml = 3/5 or less.....sick and tired of seeing public misled and everybody gets a pass.....no more passes people gotta be held accountable and things looked into more.....

Example (sorry cj) the ml maker at Yonkers who has been the Yonkers publicity manager and track line maker since prob 1975 frank drucker thinks he's slick.....during the pk4 he will make a obvious pk4 race a horse 12/1 that he knows will be 4/5-8/5.....now all the public handicapping totally dismisses this horse and bang he wins and people get knocked out....trust me nobody knows more about yOnkers then this guy....

Then he will make a horse 8/5ml that goes off 7/1 and is nowheresville louisiana....And this happens other places too

I can not argue with the specific examples but don't we have to ask what standards they must meet before we trash ML makers?

Pl. recall they have a huge number of horses to handicap and set odds line. It is a daunting task. Please try it sometime and compare your outcome at the end of the day. It will be an humbling experience, IMO.

[davew]

It is a shame that southern california cannot seem to employ a professional morning line oddsmaker that can at least read the daily racing form past performance records of the entrants. I noticed on at least 2 occasions last week at Del Mar in the nightcap the the morning line favorite in a maiden race had a record of 0-25 starts and in another nightcap 0-14 starts and were 4 year olds in an event for 3 year olds and up. If these animals have lived this long without winning there is little chance they will ever win. they did manage to finish off the board as the public was misled again. I am seeing this over and over. In the past the morning line favorite was chosen for its superior record but that isn't the case anymore. there seems to a lot of speculation by these folks rather than reality or is this the work of a computer program!

I suspect they can read the daily racing form, but may have a difficult time reading it before they need to have the ML done if the drf is not yet printed.

[pondman]

The morning line anticipates crowd behavior. It tracks the behavior of the sheep. If the morning line predicted the favorite going into the gate then the person did their job. This is an example of why you should never bet the morning line favorite. And don't let the crowd pick your horses.

If you know the favorites have no chance of winning, then you are ahead of the game.

[DeltaLover]

It is a shame that southern california cannot seem to employ a professional morning line oddsmaker that can at least read the daily racing form past performance records of the entrants. I noticed on at least 2 occasions last week at Del Mar in the nightcap the the morning line favorite in a maiden race had a record of 0-25 starts and in another nightcap 0-14 starts and were 4 year olds in an event for 3 year olds and up. If these animals have lived this long without winning there is little chance they will ever win. they did manage to finish off the board as the public was misled again. I am seeing this over and over. In the past the morning line favorite was chosen for its superior record but that isn't the case anymore. there seems to a lot of speculation by these folks rather than reality or is this the work of a computer program!

What's the problem?

I see nothing wrong with sloppy morning lines.

Actually I like them since they make crowd's errors more possible.

[Robert Goren]

What's the problem?

I see nothing wrong with sloppy morning lines.

Actually I like them since they make crowd's errors more possible.I only wish that were true. The crowd these days ignores the ML. It is impossible to predict when a horse with bad PPs will draw money, but a horse with good PPs always draws money. When I see one of my pattern bets with a ML of 2/1, I know I don't have to watch the race to see if it will get my minimum of 5/1. But if it is 8/1, I have to check because so many of them fall to 7/2 or 4/1. Low ML odds seldom go up much, but middle priced ones come down some of the time. It has been that way for 45 years at least.

[jballscalls]

It is a shame that southern california cannot seem to employ a professional morning line oddsmaker that can at least read the daily racing form past performance records of the entrants. I noticed on at least 2 occasions last week at Del Mar in the nightcap the the morning line favorite in a maiden race had a record of 0-25 starts and in another nightcap 0-14 starts and were 4 year olds in an event for 3 year olds and up. If these animals have lived this long without winning there is little chance they will ever win. they did manage to finish off the board as the public was misled again. I am seeing this over and over. In the past the morning line favorite was chosen for its superior record but that isn't the case anymore. there seems to a lot of speculation by these folks rather than reality or is this the work of a computer program!

you mentioned these two went off the board, but did they go off at or near the odds the M/L maker set? M/L makers job isn't to predict who's going to win, simply to predict his or her's best guess at what odds the public will make a horse.

We actually toyed around with the idea of not doing a morning line at all this season. Incompass, which is the national system you put your entries into, wouldn't allow it because it wouldn't make the entries final.

However, our thinking was 1) try something new and outside the box 2) you might actually get truer odds on horses because there isn't the influence of a line and 3) the horizontal wagers wouldn't be so M/L influenced on the back end.

Be curious to hear what you guys would think about that. It didn't happen, just something we kicked around.

[Longshot6977]

We actually toyed around with the idea of not doing a morning line at all this season.

There really is no reason why a M/L is needed. However, if it helps misguide the uninformed bettors with misguided money, then so be it. Veteran/knowledgable players can benefit from it. And for whatever reason, I see more terrible M/L odds on harness than T-bred.

[DeltaLover]

I like the idea of not having a human made M/L at all.

For my own purposes is next to useless and I do not see how it can be helpful to anyone else.

If we really need a M/L I would think that having an automated line created by a handicapping algorithm might be interesting. We can have various providers of these lines, a well defined algorithm to pick the best one and a continued competition among them.

[Stillriledup]

I know I'm gonna get the "if your relying on morning line odds" you shouldn't be betting speech but I'm with OP here and agree these ml makers should be held to a higher standard.......also I know some people here make thee own lines but some bettors aren't as advanced....

Just think of all the money that gets singled on pick 4 when they see 6/5 ml....in my opinion a 6/5 ml = 3/5 or less.....sick and tired of seeing public misled and everybody gets a pass.....no more passes people gotta be held accountable and things looked into more.....

Example (sorry cj) the ml maker at Yonkers who has been the Yonkers publicity manager and track line maker since prob 1975 frank drucker thinks he's slick.....during the pk4 he will make a obvious pk4 race a horse 12/1 that he knows will be 4/5-8/5.....now all the public handicapping totally dismisses this horse and bang he wins and people get knocked out....trust me nobody knows more about yOnkers then this guy....

Then he will make a horse 8/5ml that goes off 7/1 and is nowheresville louisiana....And this happens other places too

Harness racing ML's are far inferior, in most cases, to what you get in the TBreds.

You would think it might be the other way around.

[jballscalls]

Harness racing ML's are far inferior, in most cases, to what you get in the TBreds.

You would think it might be the other way around.

I tend to think it's tougher to make M/L's accurate when there are smaller pools, because just a couple of larger bets can really have a profound effect on the odds.

[thaskalos]

It is a shame that southern california cannot seem to employ a professional morning line oddsmaker that can at least read the daily racing form past performance records of the entrants. I noticed on at least 2 occasions last week at Del Mar in the nightcap the the morning line favorite in a maiden race had a record of 0-25 starts and in another nightcap 0-14 starts and were 4 year olds in an event for 3 year olds and up. If these animals have lived this long without winning there is little chance they will ever win. they did manage to finish off the board as the public was misled again. I am seeing this over and over. In the past the morning line favorite was chosen for its superior record but that isn't the case anymore. there seems to a lot of speculation by these folks rather than reality or is this the work of a computer program!

As Pondman has already stated, the morning line is supposed to reflect the public's opinion on the race...not the oddsmaker's opinion on who the best horses are.

If that 0-25 maiden really went off as the favorite, then the morning line was a good one...regardless of where the horse finished.

[jballscalls]

As Pondman has already stated, the morning line is supposed to reflect the public's opinion on the race...not the oddsmaker's opinion on who the best horses are.

If that 0-25 maiden really went off as the favorite, then the morning line was a good one...regardless of where the horse finished.

I got an email from a player once saying "You're morning line maker is awful. Just look at this fifth race for example. He puts the #1 at 8/1 on the morning line and the horse is obviously lone speed, and of course, he goes out and jogs on the front end and wins. How on earth can he make that horse 8/1!!"

The horse won at 8.40 to 1 :)

[Longshot6977]

Sometimes I get the feeling the M/L is a self fulfilling prophecy for a 'good' linemaker. If an undeserving horse gets a low m/l, then the public who bet blindly tends to bet him thinking the 'good' linemaker must know something that they overlooked. Then the odds go off low.

Same thing for a good quality horse where it gets a higher m/l and the public thinks something is wrong and backs off of him and the odds float up.This must have happened to many of us where we question the m/l based on what we know. Self fulfilled prophecy. Kind of like a public stock analyst where people blindly follow his advice. These linemakers/analysts can mold public opinions and odds into their favor if needed. If you know how to handicap properly, you shouldn't need an m/l when the toteboard shows the value.

[Delta Cone]

As Pondman has already stated, the morning line is supposed to reflect the public's opinion on the race...not the oddsmaker's opinion on who the best horses are.

If that 0-25 maiden really went off as the favorite, then the morning line was a good one...regardless of where the horse finished.

I believe the horse in question is Patriotic Lion, the 7-2 ML favorite in race 10 at Dmr on Saturday (7-20-2013).

The horse was indeed 0 for 25 and did go off as the favorite at 2.20-1. He finished fifth.

The morning line seemed pretty spot on to me. As usual, I agree with Thask.

[Show Me the Wire]

The morning line maker at Del Mar does not do a good job on reflecting the public's wagering. He has too many horse grouped at 5 to 1 and 6 to 1 in too many races. The odds board does not reflect this wagering trend at Del Mar. It seems the ML is attempting to show a large number of races as contentious, which they are not. Too many times I have seen one out of the group of 5 to 1s, bet down to the wagering favorite.

[woodbinepmi]

As a former morning line maker at Retama Park, you get the p.p.'s about an hour after the draw and then are given about an hour or two to get a line back to the racing secretary. So, it's not like you get a whole afternoon or evening to go over them to make it as precise as you would like. I don't know how other tracks do it or how much time they are given, but I do think John White at Santa Anita does a good job. Give yourself an hour or two before you really get into the handicapping process and make a morning line yourself and compare it to the odds when the horses load the gate, it's not as easy as some think. The races that I dreaded the most were quarter horse maiden races. We all can glance at them and say this horse is 9-5 or this one is 30-1, it's the ones that are 8-1 in the program and goes off at 7-2 that really kill me.

[Show Me the Wire]

See race 2 today at Del Mar today small field of six and two horses at 4 to 1 and two horses at 5 to 1. No where near the wagering pattern the :1: went off at odds on and the rest of the field was not bet as it was a contentious race.

The only thing that resembled the actual wagering was the :1: being the public's choice.

Problem is that almost every race's ML is just as inaccurate. It is even more egregious when the ML shows three horses at 5 to 1 and three horses at 6 to 1 in larger fields.

[plainolebill]

I believe the horse in question is Patriotic Lion, the 7-2 ML favorite in race 10 at Dmr on Saturday (7-20-2013).

The horse was indeed 0 for 25 and did go off as the favorite at 2.20-1. He finished fifth.

The morning line seemed pretty spot on to me. As usual, I agree with Thask.

Patriotic Lion has gone favored or at low odds in many of his starts, draws top riders. Sure makes sense that the odds maker would make him favorite.

[burnsy]

Not this sorry subject again. The morning line is NOT for people that KNOW how to pick a horse race! Why even look at it? The actual money line is the only thing i give a crap about. You know, the line when the ACTUAL odds are posted on the board. After a while if you can't read the form and figure out who the favorites are going to be.......give it up.

[Robert Goren]

Threads like this one always amaze me. Even on this board, there still seems to be a fair number of people who want other people to do a large part of their picking of winners for them. It is a mindset that I will never understand.
As stated before ML are a estimate of the what odds will be, not their chance of winning. An estimate that is usually on the high side for short priced horses. If the horse was a 7/2 ML favorite and end up a 2.20-1 favorite, then that is not unreasonable. Not everybody( including me) agrees with original poster that a 0 for 25 maiden that has been running second or third in its recent races is an unlikely winner...but that is different topic for a different thread.

[098poi]

As a former morning line maker at Retama Park, you get the p.p.'s about an hour after the draw and then are given about an hour or two to get a line back to the racing secretary. So, it's not like you get a whole afternoon or evening to go over them to make it as precise as you would like. I don't know how other tracks do it or how much time they are given, but I do think John White at Santa Anita does a good job. Give yourself an hour or two before you really get into the handicapping process and make a morning line yourself and compare it to the odds when the horses load the gate, it's not as easy as some think. The races that I dreaded the most were quarter horse maiden races. We all can glance at them and say this horse is 9-5 or this one is 30-1, it's the ones that are 8-1 in the program and goes off at 7-2 that really kill me.

I could not agree more. I would not even attempt it. I have an opinion on the likely contenders and long shots but to put that into any kind of credible line that reflects the public's final picks is not something I would be good at. Thumbs up to those that do even if they are off base once in a while.

[jballscalls]

I could not agree more. I would not even attempt it. I have an opinion on the likely contenders and long shots but to put that into any kind of credible line that reflects the public's final picks is not something I would be good at. Thumbs up to those that do even if they are off base once in a while.

I've tried to do a morning line a few times to go along with the races in So. Cal. A couple races my lines were overall better, but moreso I'd have a few horses right and a bunch that were way off. Glad I don't have to do it.

Plus it's rare that people come to discussion boards to cheer someone when they set a perfect line, not as rare as the other way around :)

[Show Me the Wire]

...............
As stated before ML are a estimate of the what odds will be, not their chance of winning. An estimate that is usually on the high side for short priced horses. If the horse was a 7/2 ML favorite and end up a 2.20-1 favorite, then that is not unreasonable. Not everybody( including me) agrees with original poster that a 0 for 25 maiden that has been running second or third in its recent races is an unlikely winner...but that is different topic for a different thread.


The bold part is where it is deficient. One of the cluster of 5 to 1 horses should not be bet down to 2 to 1 or less as the favorite or co-favorite, and the two others should not go up substantially or one stays around 5 to 1 and the other is closer to (or is) double digit odds. My complaint has nothing to do with selecting winners or which horse should be the ML favorite. It has to do with giving the impression of false value.

With the above said today's morning line looks a little better, maybe the ML maker is reading P.A.