TruForm
04-14-2001, 01:27 PM
Wood Memorial.
#2 Monarchos is the obvious choice here but I believe he may bounce off that huge last race. A small field and not a lot of pace to run at may comprimise his chances here. #5 Congaree seems to be the wise guy's horse in the race and he merits a great chance to upset the Florida derby winner. #6 Richly Blended could be any kind of racehorse, bred to be a sprinter but ran a huge race in the one mile Gotham he is undefeated coming in, he'll set all the pace here and be the one to catch turning for home. #4 It's so simple never got it going in the Florida derby but chased down and defeated last week's Illinois Derby winner Distilled in his previous race at this 1 1/8 miles distance.
Main Ticket #2 Monarchos, #5 Congaree
Backup Ticket #4 It's So Simple, #6 Richly Blended
Bluegrass
This comes up as the most competitive of all Derby preps this year. I think the two likely favorites #3 Dollar Bill and #6 AP Valentine are up against it here with a likely moderate pace and a speed/rail bias at Keeneland so we'll go against those two in most of our bets. #1 Hero's Tribute and #2 Millenium Wind were gallant in defeat in the Louisiana Derby, the latter contested the pace the whole way and fought gamely down the long Fairgrounds Stetch while the former had all sorts of trouble and ran rather erratically. #5 Songandaprayer is a genuine racehorse who shouldn't be disregarded. Similar to a lot of 3 year olds he appears to be on and up and down pattern running figures in the low 90's then around 102 then back to the 90's. He is on schedule for a big figure here if that cycle continues and should have things his own way on the front end from the outset.
Main Ticket 1 2 5
Backup Ticket 3 6
Arkansas Derby
I find this rather difficult to figure, the race favorite #11 Balto Star looks like a standout but he drew a tough post and wont get an easy lead. However, there aren't any world beaters in here and speed has been holding well at Oaklawn. #7 Arctic Boy finshed 2nd last time in the Rebel Stakes and the added distance appears to suit him the best of the runners coming back from that race. #2 Strike it Smart has tactical speed and drew a great post, he should get first jump on Balto Star and if that one tires could get up for the win. #6 Crafty Shaw won the rebel and beat most of these last time, a repeat of that effort could land him in the winner's circle as well.
Main ticket 7 11
Backup Ticket 2 6
Our bet will look like this
Main ticket $2 pick 3
2 5 w 1 2 5 w 7 11 = $24
Back up tickets
2 5 w 1 2 5 w 2 6 = $12
2 5 w 3 6 w 7 11 = $8
4 6 w 1 2 5 w 7 11 = $12
Total Wagered $56
With the low takeout and some wide open races this could pay very nice if a ticket without Monarchos or Balto Star winning is hit, and even if all Short prices hit, last weeks pick 3 paid $56 with 2 even money horses and a 5-1 shot.
Good Luck,
Donykid
#2 Monarchos is the obvious choice here but I believe he may bounce off that huge last race. A small field and not a lot of pace to run at may comprimise his chances here. #5 Congaree seems to be the wise guy's horse in the race and he merits a great chance to upset the Florida derby winner. #6 Richly Blended could be any kind of racehorse, bred to be a sprinter but ran a huge race in the one mile Gotham he is undefeated coming in, he'll set all the pace here and be the one to catch turning for home. #4 It's so simple never got it going in the Florida derby but chased down and defeated last week's Illinois Derby winner Distilled in his previous race at this 1 1/8 miles distance.
Main Ticket #2 Monarchos, #5 Congaree
Backup Ticket #4 It's So Simple, #6 Richly Blended
Bluegrass
This comes up as the most competitive of all Derby preps this year. I think the two likely favorites #3 Dollar Bill and #6 AP Valentine are up against it here with a likely moderate pace and a speed/rail bias at Keeneland so we'll go against those two in most of our bets. #1 Hero's Tribute and #2 Millenium Wind were gallant in defeat in the Louisiana Derby, the latter contested the pace the whole way and fought gamely down the long Fairgrounds Stetch while the former had all sorts of trouble and ran rather erratically. #5 Songandaprayer is a genuine racehorse who shouldn't be disregarded. Similar to a lot of 3 year olds he appears to be on and up and down pattern running figures in the low 90's then around 102 then back to the 90's. He is on schedule for a big figure here if that cycle continues and should have things his own way on the front end from the outset.
Main Ticket 1 2 5
Backup Ticket 3 6
Arkansas Derby
I find this rather difficult to figure, the race favorite #11 Balto Star looks like a standout but he drew a tough post and wont get an easy lead. However, there aren't any world beaters in here and speed has been holding well at Oaklawn. #7 Arctic Boy finshed 2nd last time in the Rebel Stakes and the added distance appears to suit him the best of the runners coming back from that race. #2 Strike it Smart has tactical speed and drew a great post, he should get first jump on Balto Star and if that one tires could get up for the win. #6 Crafty Shaw won the rebel and beat most of these last time, a repeat of that effort could land him in the winner's circle as well.
Main ticket 7 11
Backup Ticket 2 6
Our bet will look like this
Main ticket $2 pick 3
2 5 w 1 2 5 w 7 11 = $24
Back up tickets
2 5 w 1 2 5 w 2 6 = $12
2 5 w 3 6 w 7 11 = $8
4 6 w 1 2 5 w 7 11 = $12
Total Wagered $56
With the low takeout and some wide open races this could pay very nice if a ticket without Monarchos or Balto Star winning is hit, and even if all Short prices hit, last weeks pick 3 paid $56 with 2 even money horses and a 5-1 shot.
Good Luck,
Donykid