Saratoga monday 7-22-13

[KidCapper]

Monday at Saratoga! Will bet $10WP on my top selection and give 3 picks each race to roll the pick3's with for the dollar. Picks are made early before scratches & on turf. Here we go:

Race -1 The :8: . Wide open field of 2-year old colts going short here. I've landed on the outside runner for Violette. Trainer hits at 18% with 1st time starters for the year. Nice bullet workout July 14th for this. Sire hitting at 20% with his 1ster's. Dam has thrown 6 winners from 7 starters. 7-2 feels good here. :8: :1: :5:

Race -2 The :7: . Another wide open affair, this time on the turf for 2 year old fillies. Picking the Pletcher 1st timer go run well here. Brilliant workout over the Saratoga turf course July 15th with the dogs up. Trainer hitting at 25% with his 1sters. :7: :4: :8:

Race -3 The :5: . We get some more experienced runner here in the 20000b event. I'm tabbing the Galluscio recent claim as the one to beat. Trainer hits at 20% 1st off the claim & 21% with the jump up in class. Stalker should sit a good trip vs these. :5: :9: :4:

Race -4 The :11: . 3 year old and up MSW colts take the turf here. Choosing the Maker runner as the probable fav and one to catch. Speed and the outside post for trainer hitting at 20% 2nd off the layoff. Repeat of last takes this. :11: :2: :5:

Race -5 The :9: . Maiden 2 year fillies going long on the inner turf to kick off the pick 6. Picking the outside runner for Pletcher here. She was 2nd best in her debut on the main track as the favorite. Surface switch and stretch out should treat this stalker well here. Trainer hits at 26% with 1st route attempt runners. :9: :7: :5:

Race -6 The :1: . OC50k runners going short on the weeds here. Speed and the rail for Ward here a good draw. Gelding has run races that would win this. Nice set of works over at Keeneland for this. Catch if catch can! :1: :7: :4:

Race -7 The :1: . Back to the main track for this Md Claiming event. Ran a race 1st off the layoff that would win this when he ran 4th at CD. 2nd off the claim for Maker hitting at 30% with the move. Well placed here with Rosario taking the call today. :1: :7: :2:

Race -8 The . A tough streamlined field of 7 greets us back on the inner turf here. Settled on the :7: here. Multiple Graded Stakes runner has never met a field as easy as this, so she figures on the drop alone. Solid turf record for her 3rd start off the layoff where trainer hits at 16%. Should get around 7-2 here. :7: :5: :2:

Race -9 The :5: . The Evan Shipman Stakes going 1 1/8th mile over the main track here. I'm tabbing the :5: for the win here. Claimed by Maker off the win last out and he hits at 30% 1st off the claim. Rosario up for the ride today. :5: :3: :6:

Race -10 The :8: . The get out race is on the inner turf for 20000b claimers. I'll go home with the Maker Double. Was torn between the 9-8 and with Rosario riding here we'll go this way. Has speed but would be better suited to return to stalking ways of the past in here. :8: :9: :3:

I will be away from my computer today so I will update results later.

Good Luck N Good Racing From The KidCapper!!

[KidCapper]

Lost 2 to the scratch board here in Races 3 (Scratch the 9) & Race 6 (Scratch the 1). New write up for those races here.

Race -3 The :5: . We get some more experienced runners here in the 20000b event. I'm tabbing the Galluscio recent claim as the one to beat. Trainer hits at 20% 1st off the claim & 21% with the jump up in class. Stalker should sit a good trip vs these. :5: :4: :8:


Race -6 The :7: . Winner of two straight. The last win was off the claim by Jacobsen. The red-hot JR Velazquez takes the mount today. Extends win streak today. :7: :4: :8:

KidCapper

[PhantomOnTour]

Zito not known for winning with first timers but I will try with the #6

ex:
1-3-4-8 w 6
win:
6

[lamboguy]

i will try race 2 #3 THE CARELESS CAT

[PhantomOnTour]

i will try race 2 #3 THE CARELESS CAT
Me too - pedigree is excellent for a debut win

[PhantomOnTour]

Sar race 3

the #4 looks too good to be true - the top figure runner by a wide margin, but why the tag off the shelf after clearing her An2x state bred condition?
she will win by 4 if she's right, but the lukewarm 5-2 odds are cause for pause.
The #1 can be dangerous on the lead, esp if the #4 isn't ready. These two are the only ones who like to win races.
Also looking hard at the #7 World Premier, who is fresh, loves Sar and has a steady worktab....but she doesn't like to win.
Going against the #8 at underlaid odds - she sat on an easy pace last time and looked good, then another layoff, she gets cooked if she goes with these gals early.

[PhantomOnTour]

:11: Mongol Boss is another that looks a little too good to be true.
Yes, he battled it out 3w thru fast splits, buried his pace rivals, and just got nailed late...but he looks like a runner who will always get nailed late.
Pace assignment is very tough today also and he may suffer the same fate.

I like the #2 Pacific Theater who should get a dream off the pace trip and can nail them...5-1 is a more than generous price.
Also using the #3 for George Weaver

ex:
2-3 w 2-3-5-6-11
6 w 2-3
win:
2-3

[iceknight]

Your analysis is great and i think you had a great call yesterday with Strong Impact, right? <-- oops that comment was at Phantomontour> should've quoted him.

Didn't bet or see that race but analysis was good! Good price!

I like Kid's analysis too so don't be jealous kidcapper!. :)

- on to Sar R4--

I think :4: is the one value play here where I see some data. The jockey is the only x-factor but hopefully the horse knows what needs to be done :D

:6: and 11: are other serious considerations.

[The Spaniard]

Saratoga 4: :10: KINGSTON BAY, son of a tough Argertina mare (graded stakes winner on turf) and Street Boss doing great on turf. Working strong and debuting with lasix, I like it very much here.

McLaughlin is clearly a second start trainer, it's been a bad beating

[PhantomOnTour]

:11: Mongol Boss is another that looks a little too good to be true.
Yes, he battled it out 3w thru fast splits, buried his pace rivals, and just got nailed late...but he looks like a runner who will always get nailed late.
Pace assignment is very tough today also and he may suffer the same fate.

I like the #2 Pacific Theater who should get a dream off the pace trip and can nail them...5-1 is a more than generous price.
Also using the #3 for George Weaver

ex:
2-3 w 2-3-5-6-11
6 w 2-3
win:
2-3
whew - lucky to get the win with #3 at 19-1...George Weaver is the man!
...and Mongol Boss fails again

condolences to The Spaniard - great pick on that #10, tough beat

[iceknight]

whew - lucky to get the win with #3 at 19-1...George Weaver is the man!
...and Mongol Boss fails again

condolences to The Spaniard - great pick on that #10, tough beat Great call on the 3 and Saratoga is definitely proving to be the graveyard of the favorites!

On to race 5:
:8: Palestrina - let's try some 2nd starter with Kiaran angle!

[The Spaniard]

Saratoga race 5: :8: PALESTRINA is by a Saddler's Wells stallion out of a classic mare (2nd of the French Guineas). Her debut was schooling, but her business is going long on turf, not sprinting over dirt, and her trainer is very strong 2nd start. Pretty dangerous outsider.

[pondman]

Race -4 The :11: . 3 year old and up MSW colts take the turf here. Choosing the Maker runner as the probable fav and one to catch. Speed and the outside post for trainer hitting at 20% 2nd off the layoff. Repeat of last takes this. :11: :2: :5:

Race -5 The :9: . Maiden 2 year fillies going long on the inner turf to kick off the pick 6. Picking the outside runner for Pletcher here. She was 2nd best in her debut on the main track as the favorite. Surface switch and stretch out should treat this stalker well here. Trainer hits at 26% with 1st route attempt runners. :9: :7: :5: !!

You've ignored Darley in the tris? SORRY LITTLE BIT LATE ON THIS ONE

4th :10: Kingston Bay. Probably see this one at the BC in Nov. I'm considering at 10-1.


5th:8: Palestrina. This is the time of year when they like to bring out the 2yr old grass fillies. I'd take it at 10-1.

[iceknight]

Saratoga race 5: :8: PALESTRINA is by a Saddler's Wells stallion out of a classic mare (2nd of the French Guineas). Her debut was schooling, but her business is going long on turf, not sprinting over dirt, and her trainer is very strong 2nd start. Pretty dangerous outsider. let's add a small place bet on :1: ..Coach trainee

[cordep17]

Lets hope the 1 in race 7 the sticks at 7/1.

Once I was done handicapping, I was worried I would see 2/1.

Looks like he is back on track from that 90 length loss. New trainer could of done him some good.

[cappoblanca]

The no. :2:Sea Queen, by Lemon Drop Kid also has Kingmambo on his sire side, plus other small grass sires like: Nureyev, Miesque and Northern Dancer twice on the dam side. Sea Queen's dosage profile: 8-2-18-4-0 where the third listed number is an indicator of turf breeding at a route. got this from pedigreequery dot com.
Also, Christophe's turf profile this year is 159/36 22 25= 22.6%W 52.2% ITM

Had to like :2: Sea Queen for the win or the board at least if you are a PL-SH bettor.

[PhantomOnTour]

Okay Irad - no messin around...get this #3 out the gate and take the race to the #7 (who I think is a sucker horse at 5-2...he should have won one of his first two races) and maybe you can go on for awhile.
The #2 is a pace danger and may complicate things, he is quick.
If the pace is crazy it will benefit the 1-9, who I will use.

ex:
1-3 w 1-2-3-9
9 w 1-3
win:
1-3

[PhantomOnTour]

Okay Irad - no messin around...get this #3 out the gate and take the race to the #7 (who I think is a sucker horse at 5-2...he should have won one of his first two races) and maybe you can go on for awhile.
The #2 is a pace danger and may complicate things, he is quick.
If the pace is crazy it will benefit the 1-9, who I will use.

ex:
1-3 w 1-2-3-9
9 w 1-3
win:
1-3
Oops :blush:

[The Spaniard]

race 8: :3: DEANAALLEN'S KITTEN: time to rise in class.

[cappoblanca]

I have developed a system/ angle which over the last 2 days has picked both a $71 and a $141 winner. The winner in today's 8th race at Saratoga,
:1: Angel's South $71.50 and a winner yesterday in the 10th race at Saratoga, which paid a boxcar $141.50 W and $51 for PL was
:6: Galiana (both riders were not well known to the public, :6: Galiana was replaced by Abel Lezcano and :1: had Paco Lopez in the irons today) were definitely the highlights of the young meet so far. There were several $20-30 winners at Del Mar, Indiana Downs and the recent spring meet at down state Belmont.
I have yet to market the system and am working on refining it, after 7-8 years of record keeping, etc.
The system is not "put" into a race, I wait until the elements are there and then seek to fit my formula on a horse which must match at least 6 points of handicapping criteria. The first 3 are easily identified, the remainder are more disguised or need to be calculated before the wager is made. One of my barriers over the years is simply gaining the confidence to make wagers far away from the chalk, either straight bets or exotics.
Like I said I am beginning to make efforts to market the system, but am a newbie as to the beginning stages in the marketing. Maybe this is not the forum to advertize anything like this. Just trying to help those who are tearing up tickets after today's series of long shots at Saratoga.

[Vinnie]

Very nice going cappoblanca...... :) Get out Race Exacta Box

:5: :7: :8:

[Hoofless_Wonder]

Speaking of getting out, I'm loading up on the :1: in the last at Sar. Horse has some back class, and hopefully will get a decent trip. It's not often I play a 1 for 30 horse in these type of races, but he looked good in the paddock, and has performed well at the Spa.......

[The Spaniard]

R10: Lotery race :10: SNIT FIT

[cappoblanca]

Well...know that Chris Englehart, trainer of :1: Silent Joy has these turf statistics for 2013:
231/ 0-4-3= 0% wins and 31% ITM (Pl-Sh)
The enhanced brisnet pps do show a different profile for 2013:
158/ 8%wins and 28% ITM returns
Not exactly the kind of results I would want to start unwrapping the outer rubberband and flipping those $20s or $100s into the windows.

[KidCapper]

My apologies to anyone who read my picks for Monday... :bang: only 2 straight up winners and no pick 3's= disaster.

Will try to do better next time,,..,thx for reading.


KidCapper