Cratos
07-21-2013, 03:58 PM
As I have stated many times on this forum, I am a stakes bettor. However I handicap every race on the card because you never know when opportunity will present itself.
Therefore on opening day at the Spa I wanted to see whether my assumptions in my previous post (Belmont vs. Saratoga is there a difference?) had any validity.
In that post I stated that the wide turns at Belmont gave a horse an advantage over a horse at Saratoga because of the “side force” and I also stated that a bettor should take a good look at milers dropping back to 7 furlongs at Saratoga.
It didn’t take long to test those two postulations as Hardest Core on the Mellon Turf course with the temporary rail set at 12 feet came from dead last and went 6 wide on the turn to post a $11.40 winning mutuel. This meant that Hardest Core travelled about 103 feet farther and won with authority.
But things got a better in the 7th race as there were only two horses in that 7 furlong race dropping back to 7 furlongs, New Line and Indy’s Illusion and both were dropping down from stakes competition in their last race. Indy’s Illusion might have been a throw out for some because of a long layoff, but New Line at 11-1 appeared to be a good test for my assumption; and he was as he rewarded his backers with a $24.80 payoff.
I am not saying this will happen every day at the Spa and might not happen again at this meet, but it did support my assumptions.
Therefore on opening day at the Spa I wanted to see whether my assumptions in my previous post (Belmont vs. Saratoga is there a difference?) had any validity.
In that post I stated that the wide turns at Belmont gave a horse an advantage over a horse at Saratoga because of the “side force” and I also stated that a bettor should take a good look at milers dropping back to 7 furlongs at Saratoga.
It didn’t take long to test those two postulations as Hardest Core on the Mellon Turf course with the temporary rail set at 12 feet came from dead last and went 6 wide on the turn to post a $11.40 winning mutuel. This meant that Hardest Core travelled about 103 feet farther and won with authority.
But things got a better in the 7th race as there were only two horses in that 7 furlong race dropping back to 7 furlongs, New Line and Indy’s Illusion and both were dropping down from stakes competition in their last race. Indy’s Illusion might have been a throw out for some because of a long layoff, but New Line at 11-1 appeared to be a good test for my assumption; and he was as he rewarded his backers with a $24.80 payoff.
I am not saying this will happen every day at the Spa and might not happen again at this meet, but it did support my assumptions.