Claiming Study

[Que]

While hand poking my claiming stats I started to realize that some tracks have a significantly higher percentage of horse's claimed than other tracks. I was therefore curious if the percentage of horses claimed at a given track could portend the horse's ROI in their next race; e.g. the lower the claim% the higher the ROI. Below are the results of the query (1/1/01 to 11/22/01):

Track Entrs Clms Pct. ROI-Next Race
Alb 1509 25 1.66 1.254
AP 4156 387 9.31 0.819
Aqu 2891 304 10.52 0.762
ARP 1426 31 2.17 0.865
AsD 3588 102 2.84 0.940
Atl 558 19 3.41 1.100
Bel 2034 134 6.59 0.981
Beu 6739 79 1.17 0.949
BM 4612 296 6.42 0.997
BMF 551 22 3.99 0.968
BRD 504 3 0.60 0.557
Cby 2996 42 1.40 0.431
CD 3369 304 9.02 0.809
CLS 1289 6 0.47 0.960
Cnl 1446 13 0.90 1.229
Crc 7053 147 2.08 1.081
CT 13130 924 7.04 0.820
DeD 3376 20 0.59 1.911
Del 5245 420 8.01 0.969
Dmr 1778 211 11.87 1.006
ELC 8332 281 3.37 0.915
ElP 2423 75 3.10 0.209
EmD 5827 151 2.59 0.695
EvD 6053 107 1.77 0.588
FE 8335 312 3.74 1.176
Fer 229 3 1.31 1.650
FG 3096 258 8.33 0.701
FL 6493 119 1.83 0.937
FMT 1063 10 0.94 1.070
Fno 545 9 1.65 1.540
Fon 2225 32 1.44 1.255
FP 6463 39 0.60 0.939
Fpx 984 49 4.98 0.828
GF 248 1 0.40 6.550
GG 3638 252 6.93 0.866
GLD 5609 18 0.32 0.939
GP 3098 306 9.88 0.823
GRP 242 1 0.41 0.000
GS 599 15 2.50 2.053
Haw 2405 107 4.45 0.996
Hia 3055 75 2.45 1.054
Hol 2896 258 8.91 0.833
Hoo 3656 115 3.15 0.782
Hou 3132 55 1.76 1.351
Hst 4399 184 4.18 0.920
KeD 170 3 1.76 0.000
Kee 419 51 12.17 0.845
LA 2096 101 4.82 1.121
LaD 5130 75 1.46 1.560
Let 680 19 2.79 1.606
LnN 1555 9 0.58 0.700
Lrl 4060 276 6.80 0.876
LS 4308 211 4.90 1.272
LsB 1335 23 1.72 0.307
MD 1229 17 1.38 2.531
Med 1941 80 4.12 0.758
Mnr 13065 715 5.47 1.057
Mth 2490 195 7.83 0.839
NP 3430 166 4.84 0.817
OP 3190 172 5.39 1.136
Pen 10334 237 2.29 0.869
Pha 10559 436 4.13 0.548
Pim 4202 297 7.07 1.215
Pln 542 33 6.09 0.632
PM 3098 45 1.45 1.521
PrM 4332 70 1.62 0.972
RD 5728 101 1.76 0.988
Ret 3399 50 1.47 0.804
Rkm 3240 117 3.61 0.718
RP 4119 54 1.31 0.857
Rui 1264 41 3.24 0.697
SA 4233 434 10.25 1.048
Sac 599 12 2.00 0.227
Sar 747 102 13.65 0.725
SOL 638 35 5.49 0.714
Spt 2138 120 5.61 0.604
SR 589 23 3.90 0.060
SRP 933 19 2.04 1.661
Stk 518 20 3.86 0.921
StP 2039 95 4.66 1.094
Suf 5326 152 2.85 0.874
Sun 2039 62 3.04 1.150
Tam 4764 151 3.17 0.745
Tdn 7648 163 2.13 1.106
Tim 381 8 2.10 0.900
TP 4975 151 3.04 0.696
TuP 9265 353 3.81 0.926
WDS 982 4 0.41 2.780
WO 7242 552 7.62 0.899
WRD 400 1 0.25 1.650
WYO 64 1 1.56 0.000
YAV 2344 55 2.35 0.831
YD 178 1 0.56 0.000

Highest Tracks (By Clm%)

Sar 747 102 13.65 0.725
Kee 419 51 12.17 0.845
Dmr 1778 211 11.86 1.006
Aqu 2891 304 10.51 0.762
SA 4233 434 10.25 1.048
GP 3098 306 9.87 0.823
AP 4156 387 9.33 0.819
CD 3369 304 9.02 0.809
Hol 2896 258 8.90 0.833
FG 3096 258 8.33 0.701

Lowest Tracks (By Clm%) (Minimum of 30 claims)
FP 6463 39 0.60 0.939
Beu 6739 79 1.17 0.949
RP 4119 54 1.31 0.857
Cby 2996 42 1.40 0.431
Fon 2225 32 1.43 1.255
PM 3098 45 1.45 1.521
LaD 5130 75 1.46 1.560
Ret 3399 50 1.47 0.804
PrM 4332 70 1.61 0.972
Hou 3132 55 1.75 1.351

Assuming my data is correct, after looking at the stats, the theory might hold true--albeit just a little bit. Anyway, I thought some of you might find the data interesting. Any comments, thoughts, ideas, etc.?

Que.

[Que]

After porting the stats over to Excel, I think the theory holds truer than I first thought. The average ROI for the 10 highest percentage claiming tracks was only 0.8371 vice 1.0639 for the 10 lowest percentage claiming tracks. Not bad stats for a method requiring no handicapping whatsoever.

Que.

[smf]

Que, neat stuff.

Question..If the 8th race at Del Park had 4 entrants that are coming off the claim, and the winner of this race (who was coming off the claim) paid $6, would your "db ROI" for this particluar race's claims be 0.75?

Reason I ask is that this scenario gets played out often on the mid atlantic tracks I follow, whereas in most LS races I'll rarely see more than one or 2 claims coming back.....That can affect a db's ROI I w/ think.

Only a personal observation, but "jail time" (where it's applied) affects roi for claims (first back) more than just about anything I can think of.

[Que]

smf,

It was a very simple query, so the answer to your question is yes, i.e. in the example you gave the ROI would have been 0.75. Maybe thats one of the reasons that the higher percentage claiming tracks have a lower overall ROI. However, my hunch is that the economics of claiming at the tracks with lower claiming percentages is not as advantageous as the higher percentage claiming tracks. Therefore, trainers at the lower percentage claiming tracks need to be much more selective in claiming horses. Or maybe in the case of Saratoga, everyone is shopping for bargains from the rich stables looking to rid themselves of horses that aren't going to earn them any blacktype. Anyway I'm not an owner/trainer, so I really don't know the answer(s)... but it is interesting to speculate.

Que.

[smf]

Que, you're right about certain times of the year (and meets) where some trainers drop good/ live 3,4 yos. I only started betting the mid-atlantic tracks since july, but did some digging on claimed-froms.

Scott Lake in the spring can give away some winners (to good trainers), but once "the white meat's gone and only the neck's left on the platter", he's tuff to pick clean. Stephanie Beattie took him for 2 winners that were nice (pattern plays) in the early fall but he was tuff to claim a winner off him in del/ mjc/ pha during the late summer months. Asmussen is the same way.

Keith Bourgeios last season was the opposite in that he got cleaned out in FG, but you couldn't do much w/ his stock the rest of the year.

[Tuffmug]

Your lists of high and low % claiming tracks segregates neatly into 1st tier tracks with high claim % and 2nd and third tier tracks with low claiming %.

More money washing around high tier tracks which could lead to increased ability to take risk of claiming. More money also means potentially more patient handling of a claimed horse before spotting for win. Your statistics might be more interesting if you looked at ROI and win % over next THREE races.

[Que]

Tuffmug,

Good observation... and unfortunately the tracks I play are in the former category rather the later (... just my luck). Also, I can't answer your question, since I only track the trainer's first two races off a claim; but, I imagine its likely the results would be different than the first-off claim stats.

Que.