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View Full Version : Yonkers Average Pace

traynor
07-14-2013, 05:24 PM
Current model for Yonkers average pace (I am assuming everyone understands that average pace is another way of expressing speed from start to finish, using whatever method you are comfortable with):

YR - In 104 Pace Races WIN% for TOP RANK was 13.46 % Mean Mutuel 4.90
YR - In 104 Pace Races PLACE% for TOP RANK was 23.08 %
YR - In 104 Pace Races WIN% for SECOND RANK was 31.73 % Mean Mutuel 7.62
YR - In 104 Pace Races WIN ROI for TOP RANK was 48.61 %
YR - In 104 Pace Races WIN ROI for SECOND RANK was 143.61 %
YR - In 104 Pace Races TOP THREE AP WON 59.62 % ROI 0.86

This is a fairly typical model, especially for NY tracks. Using almost any rating method you choose, the top rating will be overbet, and win considerably less than its PPs indicate it should. Again typical of NY tracks (and many others) the second rating is underbet, and offers far better value. Something to watch for if you bet NY tracks.
mrroyboy
07-15-2013, 04:48 PM
Ok Tray but which pace figures did you use. I think it makes a big difference. But you are right about no 1 choices being over bet
wiffleball whizz
07-15-2013, 04:57 PM
I've heard from various people that the timer for the quarter and 3 quarters isn't that accurate.....

Seems like the first quarter is always 28.2
traynor
07-16-2013, 10:55 AM
Ok Tray but which pace figures did you use. I think it makes a big difference. But you are right about no 1 choices being over bet

I don't understand the question. AP is a simple averaging of FPS values for the four quarters of the race.
mrroyboy
07-16-2013, 05:58 PM
Ok that's what I meant
pandy
07-17-2013, 02:47 PM
http://www.drf.com/news/bob-pandolfo-betting-best-horse-not-always-way-go

I mentioned Traynor in this column (hope he doesn't mind).
LottaKash
07-17-2013, 03:18 PM
http://www.drf.com/news/bob-pandolfo-betting-best-horse-not-always-way-go

I mentioned Traynor in this column (hope he doesn't mind).

Very well put Pandy....:ThmbUp: ...thx..

And Traynor, how that for your "15-minutes"...?
mrroyboy
07-17-2013, 03:40 PM
Tray deserves it. He puts in a lot of time doing this stuff.
traynor
07-17-2013, 09:27 PM
http://www.drf.com/news/bob-pandolfo-betting-best-horse-not-always-way-go

I mentioned Traynor in this column (hope he doesn't mind).

Not at all. I think we have the same goal in many cases--to provide bettors with information that will enable them to win more and lose less.