Saturday at Belmont (or anywhere)

[PhantomOnTour]

Inviting all to join in on some handicapping banter on a big Saturday of racing.

Bel R2 - trying with :7: The Big Deluxe... first time for a tag and has some nice turf sprint races.
Price a bit low at 6-1 but i'll take it.

ex:
5-11 w 7
7 w 2-5-9-11
win:
7

[PhantomOnTour]

Never in doubt :D
love that 7-11 (that's my birthday) :ThmbUp:

[Robert Fischer]

good call with the 7!

[Robert Fischer]

race3 is a tough one.

I think :9: PIN NUMBER will surprise by factoring into the vertical exotics here and adding some price. Should see a return to better early speed from the 9. Finish in the top 3??



:11: looks solid

:10: is solid but overbet

:7: is OK

[Stillriledup]

Great call, i didnt like that horse, my "edge" on the race was El Corrente at 6-1 was a ridiculous underlay, but that did me no good. The Persaud Barn is "heating up" they had a much improved horse yesterday win and this horse today, the bomb who was 3rd, was improved too, he finally ran back to some of his older races.

[Stillriledup]

race3 is a tough one.

I think :9: PIN NUMBER will surprise by factoring into the vertical exotics here and adding some price. Should see a return to better early speed from the 9.



:11: looks solid

:10: is solid but overbet

:7: is OK

The 2 has been decent with tough trips (he creates his own mess by not getting out of the gate) but he's been ok "between calls".

The 1 is also "sneaky" and ran an improved race last time, depends on the flow and track bias to see if he has some shot.

Tough race, i do like that 11 also, i've been noticing him and he's been racing well in some decent races, i'll give that 9 another look also.

[Stillriledup]

Never in doubt :D
love that 7-11 (that's my birthday) :ThmbUp:

And i'm sure you got your free slurpee on 7-11? Happy Belated! :ThmbUp:

[Stillriledup]

Race 3 note: the 2 also "moves up" on wet track and could be on the lead if he breaks in one piece and the 11, Castellano has been known (at least by me) to be very aggressive on "off"Tracks, he may send the 11 right to the front and could be loose if the 2 doesnt break well.

[Ocala Mike]

Going with the :11: , and a :1: :11: box in the 3rd.

[PhantomOnTour]

On to R3 at Bel:

a favorite angle of mine is a speedy turf sprinter moving to a dirt route - throw in the class drop and the #11 looks tough...may wire this bunch.
Going to step out and bit and try with the #2 Unlimited Power from the hapless Badgett barn. At least Alvarado sticks around to ride.
He can chase this #11 (or challenge early) and can stick around. Even type runner should get a soft trip and maybe can hang in there.
Gotta use the #10 who always runs well when in for a tag, and the #7 who has surprisingly held form after being taken from Jacobson.
Will try to beat Rosario and the #4...hate closing sprinters stretching out...winless in 4 tries at Belmont...UNDERLAY at 4-1 in my opinion.

ex:
7-11 w 2
tri:
7-11 w 4-7-10-11 w 2
win:
2 (not too keen on him actually winning but I think he can share)

[OCF]

What. In. The. Hell. Is. The. 3. Doing. In. The. 9th. Race.?

I'm really tempted to put a SMALL wager on his nose.

[KidCapper]

Belmont Race 3. Taking a stab with the :2: in here right now at 7-1 on the board. Could be the speed of the speed in here and has a solid off-track record.

WP :2:

[Stillriledup]

Going with the :11: , and a :1: :11: box in the 3rd.

Ugh, split by the chalk.

[PhantomOnTour]

in
my
eye

shoulda just stuck with my first opinion that the #11 is going to wire them.
Oh well, beaten out of the tri by the #1

[Robert Fischer]

i'll have to re-watch the break. The 9 may have been mugged.

I was really happy with the 9 fundamentally other than the initial early position.

Galluscio knows this horse. Unfortunately for Pin Number, he may not find his proper class level until after Saratoga. Another to keep tabs on.

[Ocala Mike]

What. In. The. Hell. Is. The. 3. Doing. In. The. 9th. Race.?

I'm really tempted to put a SMALL wager on his nose.



I already did (very small). The others may just forget he's in the race. On top as far as he goes.

[Ocala Mike]

Ugh, split by the chalk.

Yep, a splitzacta. Had the win, and alive to the :1: in the 4th. Put :4: , :5: , :6: over the :1: to protect.

[PhantomOnTour]

*** please note that if you are using BRIS pp's they have the WRONG conditions listed at the header...this is an n2x and NOT an n1x like the condition header says.

[Stillriledup]

Yep, a splitzacta. Had the win, and alive to the :1: in the 4th. Put :4: , :5: , :6: over the :1: to protect.

The one horse ran a real clunker last time, not sure what happened. She seemed to be talented somewhat before that, first time turf, she has a chance.

fwiw, the 3 horse tossed the jock and ended up winning the race anyway, so, maybe she got a confidence boost from her 'win' :D

[Exotic1]

Never in doubt :D
love that 7-11 (that's my birthday) :ThmbUp:

That was a 7-11 Double as well. Happy Birthday !!

[PhantomOnTour]

Bel R4 - cannot bet this one...no value.

My mythical bet would be this:
tri:
6-5-ALL
win:
5

EDIT: thanks Exotic - didn't notice that and I should have crushed that double :D

[Exotic1]

Absolutely.

Horizontal and Vertical.

[Robert Fischer]

r4 :5: :3: :2:

not crazy about the favorite #6 Ladys Lunar Luck.

:5: should take this , and I think 3 or 2 beats the 6

[Stillriledup]

r4 :5: :3: :2:

not crazy about the favorite #6 Ladys Lunar Luck.

:5: should take this , and I think 3 or 2 beats the 6

I'm not crazy about Matt's pick the 4, Barrel Of Joy.

I think the 5 is a more talented runner but i agree with some on here, this race looks like a "skip" to me.

[Stillriledup]

Mark Hennig tweeting out weather updates, but no mention about his filly in the 4th.......of course, why would we want to know why she flopped last time and why she might be better today , we would rather have weather updates instead! :bang:

[PhantomOnTour]

Is there value in the #3 Downtown Hottie at 7-1 ??

EDIT: ugh - ugly scene with the #5...hope they scratch.
I will play a 6-3-ALL tri and a small win bet on the #3 at 7-1...she is the 2nd best closer in this field behind the chalk

[Robert Fischer]

5 caught in the gate

COMPLETE change

do we go with :4: rosario? to beat the false fav 6 ?

:4::3::2:



also throw pure amore on your watch list to give her a race before you bet pretty form next time

[Robert Fischer]

tiring 4 brushed with the 3 just enough.

+ i was wrong about :6: being a false fav, she ran well.

[PhantomOnTour]

Is there value in the #3 Downtown Hottie at 7-1 ??

EDIT: ugh - ugly scene with the #5...hope they scratch.
I will play a 6-3-ALL tri and a small win bet on the #3 at 7-1...she is the 2nd best closer in this field behind the chalk
YES - there was value but she just couldn't seal the deal...the winner had a dream trip

EDIT: yeah Robert, that bump put my #3 on the wrong lead for a few strides and that may have been the difference

[Stillriledup]

Nice job by TVG, cutting away from that scene at the gate....you know, Belmont is one of the few tracks who has shown utter disregard for horses, they continually have horses break thru the gate, run off, and are NOT scratched, so, when i saw the 5 flip, i had just assumed they were going to stick her back in there and start the race as fast as possible....but TVG has to 'cut away'? I would say that at any other track, a horse who flips like that is an automatic scratch...but not in NY, its never automatic.

[Robert Fischer]

EDIT: yeah Robert, that bump put my #3 on the wrong lead for a few strides and that may have been the difference

i'll have to re-watch the head on, i could be biased.

several watch list notes
5-traumatic gate , give her a race
2-dream trip although generally on the improve
6-hope she takes money again next time

[Ocala Mike]

Guess we found out all we needed to know about Hennig's horse in the 4th from its last race.

Anyway, the :5: in the 5th is a play for me. Second time starter, dropping from MdSpWt, getting FTL and blinkers. Using in gimmicks with the :8: and :9: .

[Stillriledup]

Guess we found out all we needed to know about Hennig's horse in the 4th from its last race.

Anyway, the :5: in the 5th is a play for me. Second time starter, dropping from MdSpWt, getting FTL and blinkers. Using in gimmicks with the :8: and :9: .

I kind of like the 1 a bit in here. I dislike the 8 and i think the 9, while having a shot, is overbet. Maybe the 3 can sneak into the bottom of the exa or tri.

The 4, while 1,000,000-1 is not the worst horse who ever lived believe it or not (his PP lines dispute that). This thing can run a touch and actually gets a positive jock switch. Can he finish 3rd or 4th in here? I wonder.

[PhantomOnTour]

Guess we found out all we needed to know about Hennig's horse in the 4th from its last race.

Anyway, the :5: in the 5th is a play for me. Second time starter, dropping from MdSpWt, getting FTL and blinkers. Using in gimmicks with the :8: and :9: .
Can't blame you there - if Espinoza gets out quickly I think he is the E of the E here and may be tough.
Likely to pass this one, but will venture a play on the #1 if those odds hold at about 7-1...could be a pace war and possible collapse and he's the one to pick them up if that happens.

EDIT: 9-1 on the #2?...really !?...that price is WAY too high and he makes the ticket also if that number holds (he easily beat the #1 before)

[Robert Fischer]

r5 tough race for me to bet.

I like the :3: River Monster.



:8::9: round out the exacta

[PhantomOnTour]

Bel R5 - small $1 ex action play: 1-2 w 1-2-5-8-9

[PhantomOnTour]

Bel R5 - small $1 ex action play: 1-2 w 1-2-5-8-9
What a gorgeous overlay that was...12-1...I cannot believe they let him go at that price

[Robert Fischer]

Bel R5 - small $1 ex action play: 1-2 w 1-2-5-8-9

good one

[Stillriledup]

I kind of like the 1 a bit in here. I dislike the 8 and i think the 9, while having a shot, is overbet. Maybe the 3 can sneak into the bottom of the exa or tri.

The 4, while 1,000,000-1 is not the worst horse who ever lived believe it or not (his PP lines dispute that). This thing can run a touch and actually gets a positive jock switch. Can he finish 3rd or 4th in here? I wonder.

Good call on the 3. ;)

[ten2oneormore]

Bel R5 - small $1 ex action play: 1-2 w 1-2-5-8-9

nice 1



Difference between Castellano and I Ortiz .If Castellano were on that 9 he would have herded the 2 and won.

[Stillriledup]

The most amazing thing about that 5th race was that the 8 came to a complete halt, stopped on a dime in midstretch and somehow, the the 1, who appeared to have some run/fwd momentum turning for home couldnt pass him for 4th. If you needed the 1 for 4th that's a crushing beat.

[PhantomOnTour]

Good call on the 3. ;)
Hell yeah SRU - that tri was fat if anyone had it.
No way I could have used that #3...nice one.

[Stillriledup]

Hell yeah SRU - that tri was fat if anyone had it.
No way I could have used that #3...nice one.

I had the tri on a 129 with 129 with 3 part wheel.

The key for me was hating the 8 horse, i had really 'negative' comments on him at Aqueduct, so tossing him was kind of easy for me.

[PhantomOnTour]

I had the tri on a 129 with 129 with 3 part wheel.

The key for me was hating the 8 horse, i had really 'negative' comments on him at Aqueduct, so tossing him was kind of easy for me.
Nice, but brother you got to post them plays, lest someone hang the dreaded "you know what" title on you :lol:

[Robert Fischer]

nice 1



Difference between Castellano and I Ortiz .If Castellano were on that 9 he would have herded the 2 and won.

Ortiz was a real gentleman there. Good call.

[Stillriledup]

Nice, but brother you got to post them plays, lest someone hang the dreaded "you know what" title on you :lol:

I can't hold a spoon up to people and "Feed" them, they have to do SOME work on their own, know what i'm saying? I mentioned the 3 as a good horse on the 'bottom' so me having the tri isnt a shock to people who were paying attention. ;)

[Stillriledup]

Not sure if any of you guys saw this thread, but i have some detailed notes here on a bunch of Belmont horses that ran a week ago, sharing is caring!

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=104637

[PhantomOnTour]

I can't hold a spoon up to people and "Feed" them, they have to do SOME work on their own, know what i'm saying? I mentioned the 3 as a good horse on the 'bottom' so me having the tri isnt a shock to people who were paying attention. ;)
Feed me Seymour!
I am just bustin your balls - no worries bro :ThmbUp:

Race 6 - shame that my horse is getting hammered down to 5-2 because I love Master Commands first time on turf...the #6 is the one for me so i'll have to search for value in the exotics.

[Stillriledup]

Feed me Seymour!
I am just bustin your balls - no worries bro :ThmbUp:

Race 6 - shame that my horse is getting hammered down to 5-2 because I love Master Commands first time on turf...the #6 is the one for me so i'll have to search for value in the exotics.

I know, but you're right, you can't ever be sure someone won't come in here and bust your nuts for not releasing an EXACT specific wager, that was a good observation. :D

[Cholly]

This is a good condition for a 3yo w/o much turf experience, but I want the one w/odds (Meet the Mets), not the short price (Master Cip)

[PhantomOnTour]

Okay - back to R6.
Lawyer Jim is on my list of ones to watch and I will look closely at the #1 and #3 who came out of his race.....LJ duked it out 3w thru a very fast opening fraction and buried his pace rivals & hung on for the win over three closers.
This #1 offers good value at 7-1...

ex:
1-6 w 1-3-6-7-8 (the 7-8 are good closers at good prices)
win:
1 (dammit - Matty likes my horse)

[Robert Fischer]

if things go smoothly the :6: master cip should win by 3 lengths.

I'm not really liking the prices here, considering this field size.

[Robert Fischer]

6.90 3.70 3.70 = i doubt it

[Robert Fischer]

**** Rosario

he's an anchor today.

terrible ride. way too fast early, then horse got intimidated by the rail

**** :bang:

[PhantomOnTour]

Okay - back to R6.
Lawyer Jim is on my list of ones to watch and I will look closely at the #1 and #3 who came out of his race.....LJ duked it out 3w thru a very fast opening fraction and buried his pace rivals & hung on for the win over three closers.
This #1 offers good value at 7-1...

ex:
1-6 w 1-3-6-7-8 (the 7-8 are good closers at good prices)
win:
1 (dammit - Matty likes my horse)
Whiff - discounted the easy winner and clear best of this field :mad:

[PhantomOnTour]

last race before I've got to go....I like #2 Chamois.
Always been a fan of him.
Rough start last time, still ran on nicely, can lay closer to the pace today and is a strong stretch runner...like him at 6-1

ex:
3-5-9 w 2
win:
2

gonna try to beat the Chad Brown #1 who is a bit cold at 5-1 right now

[BlueChip@DRF]

He (:2: Chamois) was on my Derby watch list last year but had no activity as a 2 year-old. Sorry, but I like him as well. I really like him in this spot. Again, sorry about that.

[Stillriledup]

last race before I've got to go....I like #2 Chamois.
Always been a fan of him.
Rough start last time, still ran on nicely, can lay closer to the pace today and is a strong stretch runner...like him at 6-1

ex:
3-5-9 w 2
win:
2

gonna try to beat the Chad Brown #1 who is a bit cold at 5-1 right now

Durkin calls him "shammy" That's the pronunciation. Im also a fan of the horse. GL, 7-1 seems square as 3rd time lasix.

[PhantomOnTour]

Noble Tune is a tough customer though...tripling up on the 5-2 ex and boxing them.

Chamois puts two races together for the first time in his career...maybe he just explodes today and rolls this bunch.
Tripling up on the win bet, too.......let's go baby.

[BlueChip@DRF]

For the feature at Belmont, I like the import :2: Speaking of Which (GB) for distance and especially the soft-going today.

[Stillriledup]

Ugh, kiss of death Matt C on TVG picks "Shammy".

Hopefully the human anvil doesnt weigh us down! (its bad enough that we have the OTHER human anvil ME on board, we dont need another one! :D )

[BlueChip@DRF]

Ugh, kiss of death Matt C on TVG picks "Shammy".

Hopefully the human anvil doesnt weigh us down! (its bad enough that we have the OTHER human anvil ME on board, we dont need another one! :D )


He can't be worse than Battaglia.

[BlueChip@DRF]

:9: looks tough good

[BlueChip@DRF]

:3: is HUGE!!!

[BlueChip@DRF]

Ugh, kiss of death Matt C on TVG picks "Shammy".

Hopefully the human anvil doesnt weigh us down! (its bad enough that we have the OTHER human anvil ME on board, we dont need another one! :D )


Okay, he IS worse than Battaglia.

[Stillriledup]

Yikes, Jr Alvarado, hard guy to bet, not sure what he was doing there, that was an odd ride.

[PhantomOnTour]

Chamois is a cham!

good hanging with y'all - let's do this again...like tomorrow

good luck the rest of the day

[BlueChip@DRF]

Yikes, Jr Alvarado, hard guy to bet, not sure what he was doing there, that was an odd ride.

I hope he didn't think it was a 2-turn race.

[Stillriledup]

Chamois is a cham!

good hanging with y'all - let's do this again...like tomorrow

good luck the rest of the day

Watch again carefully, he had run thru the wire, maybe he didnt like to be pinned inside, or didnt like that anvil of a jock he was carrying around. I'd give him another shot next time at a bigger price (hopefully w jock chg)

[Stillriledup]

Race 8 Monmouth coming up in 5 mins, kind of liking the 8 horse, he seems to be the only 'true closer' in a race with a lot of speed. Orig a turf race, now on fast dirt.

lets take a shot with the 8, Scout's Honor.

[Exotic1]

Race 8 Monmouth coming up in 5 mins, kind of liking the 8 horse, he seems to be the only 'true closer' in a race with a lot of speed. Orig a turf race, now on fast dirt.

lets take a shot with the 8, Scout's Honor.

You read that right.

[Robert Fischer]

:9: looks tough good

good call

tough day for chalk

[BlueChip@DRF]

good call

tough day for chalk

Belmont is becoming like Arlington - chalks die, bombs fly

[Exotic1]

The 2 has been decent with tough trips (he creates his own mess by not getting out of the gate) but he's been ok "between calls".

The 1 is also "sneaky" and ran an improved race last time, depends on the flow and track bias to see if he has some shot.

Tough race, i do like that 11 also, i've been noticing him and he's been racing well in some decent races, i'll give that 9 another look also.

SRU,

What did you like about Matt and Jesse? I did the race at 1AM and I gave the #1 a shot b/c together with the #10 and #11 they were really the only milers and he had huge figure at 1M at AQU. He ran pretty well today.

The #2 was coming out of a slow but worthwhile race, I thought. Jacobson ran 1st and 2nd with Kingsford Drive and Tycoon Cat. He tried to squeeze a mile out of TC, yesterday.

Of course the horses to beat were the #10 and #11.

[Stillriledup]

SRU,

What did you like about Matt and Jesse? I did the race at 1AM and I gave the #1 a shot b/c together with the #10 and #11 they were really the only milers and he had huge figure at 1M at AQU. He ran pretty well today.

The #2 was coming out of a slow but worthwhile race, I thought. Jacobson ran 1st and 2nd with Kingsford Drive and Tycoon Cat. He tried to squeeze a mile out of TC, yesterday.

Of course the horses to beat were the #10 and #11.

I originally "noticed" this horse on March 1st at Aqu, my comment that day was "sneaky good, tried to middle move wide, ok for drop". THna i made a nice bet on him on March 17 and became a "fan". He's a one move closer, he's slow and has no quick turn of foot, but he has some power. He impressed the connections and they put him over his head and he ran some bad races. Last time, on June 19th, he seemed to 'come alive' again. My comment that day was "competitive, moving ok late, only lost by 4, was his closest turf finish in a while, seems sharp for switch back to dirt".

It was something i saw visually, he seemed to 'wake up' a bit after 4 disasterous races in a row.

[OCF]

I already did (very small). The others may just forget he's in the race. On top as far as he goes.

Just got back from the track where I put four shiny quarters on the :3: to win. I'm hoping to maybe get a good story to tell out of it. Made a more serious bet on the :6: . I've got both ends of the pool covered. ;)

[Robert Fischer]

Race 8 Monmouth coming up in 5 mins, kind of liking the 8 horse, he seems to be the only 'true closer' in a race with a lot of speed. Orig a turf race, now on fast dirt.

lets take a shot with the 8, Scout's Honor.

good picking. :ThmbUp:



Man O' War

- I'm tossing the :1: Optimizer. Never thought much of Optimizer, and he has kind of built a name for himself and should be an underlay.
:6: :2: look like interesting alternatives.

[Exotic1]

I originally "noticed" this horse on March 1st at Aqu, my comment that day was "sneaky good, tried to middle move wide, ok for drop". THna i made a nice bet on him on March 17 and became a "fan". He's a one move closer, he's slow and has no quick turn of foot, but he has some power. He impressed the connections and they put him over his head and he ran some bad races. Last time, on June 19th, he seemed to 'come alive' again. My comment that day was "competitive, moving ok late, only lost by 4, was his closest turf finish in a while, seems sharp for switch back to dirt".

It was something i saw visually, he seemed to 'wake up' a bit after 4 disasterous races in a row.

Good work. !!!

[Stillriledup]

good picking. :ThmbUp:



Man O' War

- I'm tossing the :1: Optimizer. Never thought much of Optimizer, and he has kind of built a name for himself and should be an underlay.
:6: :2: look like interesting alternatives.

Thanks.

I agree on Optimizer. last time he beat a horse named real solution by a neck and i didnt have such a glowing comment on that horse.

[Stillriledup]

Good work. !!!

Thanks Exotic, appreciate that!

[Tom]

AP Race 10

:6::2::3:

[letswastemoney]

Freight may put them to sleep in the last race at Belmont. I bet him to win.

[Tom]

Virginia Derby - :6: :9:

[Ocala Mike]

In the 6th at Colonial, I like the :11: (Sheppard's horse). Boxing :5: :10: :11:, exacta and tri.

[Robert Fischer]

Virginia Derby - :6: :9:
good numbers



i'm guessing :3: :5: :2:



i'm not a fan of the 4 Rydilluc, and he seems like a huge underlay to me, but i'm kind of rooting for him to beat Pletcher's entries here as a fan.

[Tom]

Well, we sure put together a good photo with our picks!

[Ocala Mike]

I think the :6: got it, Tom. The :9: couldn't win with that awful trip.

[Robert Fischer]

Virginia Derby - :6: :9:

great call on the 6!
7-1 odds

[cj]

Virginia Derby - :6: :9:

Stick to win bets, you were 2 for 2 on top!