View Full Version : No exacta "baseballs"
melman
11-23-2001, 07:54 AM
Since I have gone to almost all exacta betting I continue to read of many players using the exacta box, or baseball method. Boxing 2 or 3 or 4 or more horses in the same race. Hey what is this the supermarket!!!! When you do that you are saying that you feel each of the horses in your box have the exact same chance of winning. It only takes a few seconds to "weight" your exacta bet to correctly list the chances of your picks. I believe this is why the exacta pool has so much more "dumb" money then the win pool. Another bet I hear players make over at the Turf Club is the Exacta wheel as in I wheeled him. Again with that bet you are saying that all the horses have the same chance to come in second. Give exacta "weighted betting" a shot (on paper) and I believe you will be a happy camper.
kingmambo
11-23-2001, 09:33 AM
you know,i'm glad you brought this up.i hear many
"experienced" handicappers criticize anyone for
boxing or "baseballing' exactas.i read a STEVE
CRIST column in SIMULCAST WEEKLY where he
was so contempetious toward the exacta player
who boxed that you had to be an "idiot" not to
realize that you were throwing your money away.
this is coming from a guy that will buy a whole leg of
the pick six.....ain't that boxing?
yes your honor i box exactas,and i plan to keep on boxing exactas.i don't play every race,i might find one
race a day that i box,but let me tell you when i box
i have certain rules.
#1 2 horses must be 10-1 or higher
#2 i look for races were there is a "false favorite"
#3 i never leave PAT DAY out,just joking, i live in
KY.
i hit the biggest exacta at SARATOGA the year before
last....AMARETTA-WEST SIDE MARIA.......$2300{THANK
YOU MAIDEN STATS}.......and this years KY DERBY exacta
$1200}MONARCHOS-INVISIBLE INK}i had boxed MONARCHOS,POINT GIVEN,CONGAREE,INVISIBLE INK}
no i didn't have the tri,i "wheeled"POINT GIVEN in the 2nd spot in my tris and super.
so in spite of my obvious inept handicapping i'll continue
to box,see you at the windows,hopefully the short line.
melman
11-23-2001, 09:54 AM
King, I am sorry if I came off as sounding "superior". Not my intention at all. If you are having sucess with your method by all means keep it going. BTW my post had nothing to do with handicapping. You list some great hits and I am happy for you. Can you share some of your insights into capping that got you those great returns? Also if you are looking for a free copy of the new Maiden Stats sign up with BRISBET the BRIS betting service and they will GIVE you one. Also the exacta box that you list make sense. The ones I refer to are ones that include the favorites.
Tuffmug
11-23-2001, 10:22 AM
I like to box AND THEN press my top pick on top in exactas and trifectas. It tends to even out my bankroll and decreases my tendancy to shout obscene abuses at the jockeys for giving my top pick horse a bad ride!
I find boxes to be overbet if we are talking about the first 3-4 win favorites in a race. Same is true with betting the favorite on top in exactas. Always pays less than it should...even if a longshot comes in second.
I tend to look for races to bet exactas first (min. of 9 horses) then I look at the horses. If the favorite cannot be tossed from the exacta, I don't bet it. If he can, then I tend to box the exacta with 4 and on occasion 5 horses. In those situations I do think the horses I box have about an equal chance of hitting the exacta and many times racing luck (I love turf racing) will make the difference.
About the only time I key a horse in the exacta is if the horse I like is 8-1 or better. Then I will key him top and bottom to the other horses I like in the race.
If 1 of these 2 conditions don't exist for me, I pass the exacta and look at the trifecta or pick 3.
JimG
ridersup
11-23-2001, 10:44 AM
I have heard it said many times by many expert handicappers that it is foolish to box exactas.
When I use to play exactas I would usually key 1 horse over 2 price horses and then reverse the bet over the key horse.
The trouble is that many, many times the two price horses will run 1, 2 and the exacta will be huge but I get nothing for my efforts.
To see whether I was costing myself money by keying instead of boxing I made 3 seperate studies each involving a weeks worth of exacta bets. Each and every study resutled in the boxing of the 3 horses producing significantly more profits than the keying.
Obviously it cost more to box 3 horses rather than key 1 over 2 and reversing it so on long losing streaks one gets hesitant to continue the more costly method of betting. But in the long run in my handicapping boxing is more profitable than keying.
I think this is one example of a commonly accepted theory (never box) that doesn't prove true in practice, at least for me.
Ridersup
PaceAdvantage
11-23-2001, 04:56 PM
Jeez what timing!! I just started a study seeing whether a certain situation that I have seen calls for a 4 horse exacta box. Then I always remember how all the so called "experts" say that boxing ranks right up there with tripping your grandmother....you just are never supposed to do it....
But, I have learned that listening to "experts" may not be the best course.....glad to read what you guys are thinking on this subject...
==PA
BillW
11-23-2001, 06:11 PM
I think the "never box exactas" thing comes from the theory (or fact?) that there are combinations in an exacta box that do not have value (underlays). So I guess it comes down to a discussion of an individual's ability to evaluate the value of a horse and quantify that ability i.e. set an odds line.
Bill W.
Being a contrarian by nature, if the "experts" are saying do one thing, I am likely to do something different.
After all in a parimutual game, following the crowd will certainly lead to financial ruin, in my opinion.
JimG
melman
11-24-2001, 08:02 AM
One can go away from the "experts" whoever they are, and not follow the crowd on capping plays. But on betting?? Question would you make the old dumb "across the board" wager?? The "I had it for 20 win 20 place 20 show" guy is a LOSER. Since the "experts" also agree with that would you still bet across the board just to say you dis the "experts". I attempted to say that exacta betting in UNEQUAL amounts is the way to go in exacta betting. Not that I was not liking exacta boxes, which I do all the time. If you take your 60 and bet more on some parts of the exacta you will be far ahead of the guy betting his 60 on a straight exacta box. Unless you have an example similar to what King sited. If all three horses are about the same odds a equal exacta box makes sense.
PaceAdvantage
11-24-2001, 09:29 AM
Makes total sense to me melman...I just have to get out of lazy mode and try and figure out the best way to play these exactas....boxing is the easy way out....LOL
melman
11-24-2001, 09:44 AM
PA, at bm-dist.com they have a listing of betting tips. The one listed for the exacta is pretty good. It includes a 3 horse exacta box LOL but goes on with unequal amounts. If your first and second picks or second and first picks come in the exacta you will collect more.
My guess is these "experts" at betting are no better than the "experts" at handicapping.
Most who have a good betting system are not going to share, in my opinion. Different races call for different types of wagers depending on how the crowd sizes up the race and if you think they are right or wrong.
When the crowd is dead on, I either lose or pass (hopefully pass), when they are wrong and I am too, I still feel ok as I picked a good race to take a shot. When the crowd is wrong and I am right, the pockets bulge.
JimG
ridersup
11-25-2001, 10:37 AM
Melman
You mentioned that Brisbet is giving away Maiden Stats for signing up. Couldn't find that offer on the Brisbet site.
Do you know if this offer is only for new members?
melman
11-25-2001, 11:03 AM
Friend of mine had the exact same problem. Check the "revolving pop-up ad" at the bottom of the BRIS web site. You will find the offer there. I believe it is that you must sign up for BRISbet and make at least one wager. Again just wait for the ads to "revolve".
ridersup
11-26-2001, 08:50 AM
Thanks, I found it.
Gonna call today and see if prior signers get the book.
Rick Ransom
11-26-2001, 10:07 AM
The best simple way of playing exactas (not considering odds) with my selections has been to play the top choice on top with 2nd and 3rd choices on the bottom and 2nd choice on top with 3rd choice on the bottom. So, it's 1 2 / 2 3, which is three ways. This is profitable for me even though neither of my top two choices is better than break even (if I bet them at all odds). This is what I do when I want to play every race. The reverse exactas, for me, are not profitable. I'm interested to see if this works for others as well. I've found that there are some methods that are not good at picking exactas at all but do well on the win end.
ranchwest
11-26-2001, 11:15 AM
Just saying boxes or keys are better seems illogical to me.
Some horses are more statistically sound for hitting the board at some positions and some at others.
Rick Ransom
11-26-2001, 02:55 PM
Another interesting exacta strategy I've read about is to select horses that have finished close to one another in previous races. The theory is that they have compatible running styles. Although I haven't tested this, it seems logical to me.
ridersup
11-27-2001, 10:19 AM
Called Brisbet and was informed the free Maiden Stats book was free only to new signers not us old guy who have been there for 2 months.
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