Dealing with some losing aspects of betting the races

[trying2win]

A lot of the discussions at this PA site are about general handicapping info, strategies, methods, handicapping software programs etc....even a bit of bragging about some of our winners (we all like to tell others about how we ferreted out a longshot winner, or how we hit a huge gimmick payoff, right?...nothing wrong with that. Some of us are just more humble about it...LOL!).

Anyways, a few areas that I think horse players don't like to talk about, but we all have to deal with (especially if you like to bet a lot of longshots or gimmick bets), is the inevitable real bad days at the track (does the word "drubbing" ring a bell?), or the prolonged losing streak. Most of course, would prefer to talk about their winners. Losses are rarely discussed.

Betting the races certainly has it's peaks and valleys. The super days at the track are "easy to take" and are a great feeling. But how about those individual days at the track when you get shellacked, or several days or more when you hit the prolonged losing streak? I know sometimes you feel like you're cursed during a losing streak and you might feel that "You just can't win" during these low periods. Everything seems to go against you. It sure can be a challenge dealing with some negative emotions, and the losing of your confidence during a long losing streak.

Do you think it's a good idea to be more prepared ahead of time to deal with these losing sessions when they arrive?

Should we be asking ourselves questions like:

1. What betting range am I comfortable with on individual bets?

2. What's the most I can lose in one day, or several days in a row at the track, before it starts bothering me too much?

3. What's the best way to deal with the negative emotional feelings after a particularly bad day at the track, or even a prolonged losing streak?

4. What are some good methods to restore my confidence?

5. Should I be open to do some more fine-tuning of my usually good methods during a losing streak, or should I just keep playing my methods as before, and just persevere until I hit that next big payoff?

6. Should I cut back on the size of my bets until I start winning again?

I know I have a tendency to cut back on the size my bets during a losing streak. In addition, from my experience the single digit winners don't seem to snap me out of a losing streak, but a good four-figure win mutuel often does.

Even during a losing streak, I know the big-priced winners will arrive again for me some day, and all will seem bright and sunny once again.

T2W

[Buddha]

I think you should always be prepared. It is inevitable that you will face a losing streak. It may not be long, but it will happen. If you have ever read Steve Fierro's 4 Quarters to handicapping, he is making a profit, and only hitting 15-17% winners. You will have good days, weeks, or even months that you may have a higher hit rate, but that is it. You will sooner or later be back to your average. If you hit at 16%, that is 5 losing bets to one winning bet. You may come up with 3 winners in a row, but if the law of averages works, you "should" have 15 losers to average back out. I know it doesn't work that way, but averages, it would. If you only a longshot/exotic player, you should be even more ready for dry spells. You may only hit 10% of your exactas, where 1 in 10 bets is a winner.

As to your other questions, I think that you should always have a betting range you are comfortable with, and don't go outside of it. If you have no problem playing $20 or $50 to win, play that. Don't think just because Secrateriat is running against some $4000 claimers and is a sure winner, you should up it to $100. It is racing, it is gambling, and you are always taking a chance. If you start wagering outside a comfort zone, you are only asking for trouble.

If you would come to a spot where you are losing too much, and it is bothering, I think the best thing you can do is take a vacation. Take 3 or 5 or 10 days away from the races. It would be a personal preference as to how long, but if you are losing, or upset about how much you lost, are chasing after lost money, you will lose even more. Take however long it takes to get a "normal" feeling for the races, and enjoy it. When your mind is clear, you should be ready to play again.

The best way to deal with emotional feelings after losing would be a person to person basis. Do something that you enjoy other than racing, and just try to free your mind. Kinda goes back to the above, and take some time off.

To restore confidence, I think after a small break, maybe start your betting light when you are starting again, and don't bet as many races as you normally would. Start slow and light, hit some races, start picking better, hit more races, get more confidence, get more money.

Should you change your methods? I don't think you should change all of your methods. If you are losing, something isn't working. If you keep records of your wagers, maybe you can backtrack and find out where you are losing most, what is causing the loss, and find a way to fix it.

Cutting back I think is a good thing. At least you don't want to bet more to chase that lost money. Less bet during a bad run saves you money, and when you start hitting some more, you can start increasing to your normal amount.

[trying2win]

Buddha,

Thanks for your wise advice and reminders. I feel more relaxed already, after reading your post on this topic. Hopefully, a lot of other PA members will benefit after reading your post, as well.

Regards,

Trying2win

[Exactaman]

Originally posted by trying2win
5. Should I be open to do some more fine-tuning of my usually good methods during a losing streak, or should I just keep playing my methods as before, and just persevere until I hit that next big payoff?

Assuming your methods have worked for you consistently in the past, this is the way to go. As Buddha says, and particularly if you are going for longer priced horses, some losing streaks will be inevitable. Sure look to see if you're doing anything wrong but for the big picture you have to stick to your guns.

An idea i got from a Steve Chaplain harness book you may find useful is making a yearly budget. Before the year ask yourself how much you can afford to lose this year. Times that by 5. That'll be your yearly budget, it assumes you lose the takeout (20% in fact.) Break that down into a weekly and per bet budget, and stick to it. If you hit your limit before year end, pack it in until Jan. 1st.

[trying2win]

[QUOTE]Originally posted by Exactaman
[An idea i got from a Steve Chaplain harness book you may find useful is making a yearly budget. Before the year ask yourself how much you can afford to lose this year. Times that by 5. That'll be your yearly budget]

Exactaman,

That alleged advice by Steve Chaplain doesn't make sense....especially the part "Before the year ask yourself how much you can afford to lose this year. Times that by 5. That'll be your yearly budget." HUH?

I had a good laugh when I read those three sentences. Sounds like a way for someone to go to the poor house quickly, when a harness race author advises a bettor to gamble five times the amount they can afford to lose in a year!...LOL....

Nevertheless, thanks for taking the time to comment. I'm surprised more PA members haven't commented on this kind of topic. Either on this thread or a similar one by TRAVIS. Hmmm...I wonder why...

--Do only a small group of PA members encounter losing streaks? (I doubt that)...

--Or, if they do have prolonged losing streaks now and then, are most of the PA members already well-versed on how to cope when these skids occurs? (Probably some are, and some aren't)...

--Or, do most bettors only want to talk about their winners? (Perhaps...I don't know for sure)

T2W

[Exactaman]

Originally posted by trying2win


That alleged advice by Steve Chaplain doesn't make sense....especially the part "Before the year ask yourself how much you can afford to lose this year. Times that by 5. That'll be your yearly budget." HUH?

I had a good laugh when I read those three sentences. Sounds like a way for someone to go to the poor house quickly, when a harness race author advises a bettor to gamble five times the amount they can afford to lose in a year!...LOL....

T2W

Well, it makes certain assumptions that I didn't think I needed to explain here, but I guess I will :)

It assumes that you have have made a conscious decision to exercise some self control, and not to bet in a compulsive manner.

If you've done that, it certainly makes sense. Say you figure you can lose $2000. So you have a yearly budget of $10,000. You're not just going to plop that on an even money shot running in the first race. You're going to bet that in small set amounts throughout the course of the year. Now even if you use a dartboard you're going to hit some bets. Losing the whole thing would be a virtual impossibility. If you pick randomly, you will tend to lose the takeout. If you really get to your $2,000 limit, you admit something went very very wrong and you pack it in. Presumably that wouldn't happen until the latter half of the year :)

The real point is you have a structure for what you're betting, which i think would answer some of the questions in your op.

[Jeff P]

Believe in Yourself (And Keep Records)
One thing you should be able to know from your records is the size of your longest string of consecutive losses. Just knowing this can give you confidence precisely when you need it the most. Let me explain.

I have my own method of play that historically delivers between 12-16 percent winners at an average win mutuel of just over $20.00. So I tend to be quite profitable- if I excersise the discipline to play it over a long enough time period. Tracking this method so far this year I notice that I have 26 winners from 219 plays. That's a win clip of just over 11 percent. And yes, I'm happy to report that the method is profitable year to date.

But, looking at my records, I know that I've suffered at least one prolonged slump so far this year. During the first week of February I had a five day period where I was 0 for 18. Then, a single winner that paid $13.20. This was immediately followed by a seven day period where I went 0 for 32. During this 12 day period all I could manage to do was go 1 for 51. Let that sink in for a second. 12 days. 1 for 51.

So, what was going through my mind while this was happenning? Well I know from my records that my own personal longest losing streak in the past was 57 consecutive losses over 16 days. In fact, each year I can typically expect 7 or 8 prolonged losing streaks averaging 30 consecutive losses apiece. I also know looking back at that 0 for 57 streak that if I take a 45 day period on either side of the streak that includes the streak- I still managed to grind out a profit during the period in question.

Just knowing this was enough to give me the confidence I needed to keep going.

Losing streaks are a reality. All players must face and deal with them. They are part of the game.

But I also know from my records that all losing streaks have one thing in common. Eventually, they do come to an end.

I tried not to become emotionally attached to any one outcome during my most recent slump. Instead, I did the best I could to think positive thoughts. I drew confidence from my records. I simply believed. The closer I got to 30 straight losses the more I just KNEW things would soon turn around.

Sure enough, they did. After 32 consecutive losses, my 33rd win bet produced a $47.40 winner. And three plays later a $33.60 winner. And I can see now that I am steadily regressing back to my own mean.

[trying2win]

Jeff,

Hey, great post there. The title was a good reminder to start with...i.e. Believe in Yourself (and keep records). It was a pleasure to read a post that was interesting, candid, intriguing and inspiring. After reading about some of your losing streaks, it made some of my droughts look "not so bad after all".

Have you ever considered a second career as a part-time writer? It appears to me that you have a natural talent for it.

Regards,

T2W

[COUGAR]

I play longshots mostly with a low win percentage. I have changed my money management a bit lately. I take my ROI and divide it by my win% to arrive at a wager level.. percentage of bank kelly betting.
Lets say you had a 20% ROI and 20% winners. The 20% winners would reflect "on average"( i know it never goes like this but lets use it.) a win 1 in 5 races, hence 20% winners. In this case divide your 20% ROI by 5= 4% of bank kelly betting. It's pretty conservative to get you through the dry spells. I'm on a 20 horse losing streak right now and am not nearly as stressed as my other more aggresssive approach.

Mitch

[shanta]

it was about 2 months ago. i wager almost every day multiple tracks. Tampa Bay is my "money track" ok? i have been playing it every day since the meet started. anyway all of a sudden i start losing. and losing. and losing. i have 1 winning card from 11 cards in a row that run. i am getting killed money wise.first time i have experienced this at Tampa in 2 years. at this same time Mountaineer is closed for weeks because of the schedule and the horsemen problems.At that time this is the only other track running that i am able to profit at fairly consistently.i remember sitting at the Meadowlands at my table and feeling a panic attack coming on!i am dead serious.i packed up,left and went home to New York.I stayed away for almost 2 weeks.To make a long story short for me cause i wager at a track and not from home the hardest thing is when i am losing to not force bets on marginal races. sitting at a track for 10 hours a day and not letting myself get caught up in the "crowd" yelling and screaming thats a real test for me!


Richie

[Rick]

I think it's important to not think of whatever money you're ahead as being "yours" when you're in a winning streak. After all, almost all of the time you'll be below some previous high point. You'd almost always be disappointed if you thought this way. And, taking a break can be a big mistake because you might miss a huge winner that would have broken the streak. Yeah, in theory you wouldn't have anything to do with horse racing during that period, but most people track their selections without betting on them. Also, I think when selections of a certain type are losing badly, the price tends to go way up as people get discouraged by that general type of analysis. Say you're betting a lot of early speed types and they've been fading in the stretch consistently for the last couple of weeks. Well, this is really costing you so you start betting the closers. Track management decides the track is too slow and makes some adjustments. Bam! Early speed horses start winning at 20-1 and you missed out. It happens all the time. Or should I say, *hit happens.

[OTM Al]

You can also get away from the races without leaving them in a way too. One thing I do sometimes is get a copy of the DRF as usual, cap the races, but don't bet them. Just watch a feed or check online and see how you did. There's no pressure because you have nothing on the line and it allows you to much more easily sit back and look at what happened in the races. Hit a couple nice pretend bets (and never kick yourself because you didn't have anything on them, that's just as distructive as getting crazy during a losing streak) and you get your confidence back. It just gives you a chance to step back from it a bit, see what's really been happening, just bad luck or missing something in your technique, and it doesn't cost any more than the price of the form

[trying2win]

Cougar,

It was nice to read a post where someone was candid, and were not afraid to admit to having a long losing streak at the races. Your betting plan looks sound, in that you retract your bets in a losing streak and increase them when winning.

Shanta,

Thanks for being candid too about admitting having a losing streak while playing the races. I know the feeling. For instance, after a great start this month, I took a shellacking one day while playing the races about the middle of the month. The losing skid continued for several days after. It seems when a person's on a losing streak that several things happen. A person's self-talk can go from postive to negative, such as:

--"I won't let the losing streak bother me, for I'll bounce back eventually"...to.

--"Why am I so cursed?"...or...

--"Why can't I win?"...or...

--"I must be the only one losing like this playing the races" (NOT TRUE--..on any given day, 95% of the people betting the races lose money")...or....

--"I must have bad karma"...or...

--"I just can't win. No matter what I do, I lose"


Easier said than done sometimes, but, it is better to use positive self-talk like:

--"I know I'm in a bit of a losing streak here, but my methods have proven to be sound for years, and things will turn around if I just persist. In the meantime, I'll will do some reviewing." ...etc....

I do have a tendency to retract the amount of my bets during a losing streak. I know my fortunes at the track will turn around. They'll also do. I like to take some time to review some records of my bets and my methods, to see if some things need to be eliminated or alterated to possibly help future results. Those losing streaks are tough to take emotionally at times, but when you hit that first big payoff again, what a great feeling eh?" The win then feels extra special.

I love playing the horses races, whether it be the thoroughbreds or the harness races. Now that I'm retired, it gives me something to look forward to each day. I love the challenge and excitement of playing the races. I've gotten to know a lot of great people out at the local track, while attending the races in person. It can be a good social event when visiting the local racetrack. Lately, I've had a tendency to bet from home more often, than visit the track though.

More people should find a pastime like playing the races. I see too many retired people go downhill after they retire. Some of them never developed any real pasttimes or hobbies they enjoy, and consequently seem to get bored too easily when they retire. I see some of them hanging out at coffee shops, malls, or at slot machines at casinos "killing time", instead of "utilizing time" and enjoying pastimes or volunteering for various organizations. Time after the age of 50 is like gold. It's sad when I see some retirees not enjoying it.

Rick:

I agree with your comments. When I'm in a losing streak, I'm not the type to quit altogether for several days or a week etc. I just keep playing the races, albeit at a reduced amount of money per bet until I start winning some big payoffs again. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe that was you that suggested an excellent idea in an earlier post. It was about the idea of using an alternative plan when in a losing streak. It had something to do with trying a method of betting the races utilizing trainer stats. Could you direct me to that post again?

Thanks,

T2W

[Hammerhead]

Some great replys to those unbelievable long losing streaks. If anyone has visited my site this past weekend it is plain to see I am headed for one. I hope it is a gentle let down and not the big bang. I hope I handicap with the same attitude that produced the results and not try to improve on my picks. I have done things like this in the past, but do to my nature removed the money from my accounts leaving me with the bare minumum to start fresh. A few times I have lost all my winnings and at times nerve to make the correct wager. It only takes a day or two to lose a few grand and examine your new outlook on life. Now I know when I wake up in the morning if my attitude is good I should be capable to make the correct decision. I must be clear headed and in a very good frame of mind. This handicapping must not be a chore but a happy experiance. I like to have that feeling that I made the correct choice. Not maybe this horse or maybe that horse is better. It seems any race I have a indecision in results in loseing.

A clear head, a feeling of well being with nothing else on my mind then enjoying the afternoon of racing and if I lose I can afford it. I try never to get in that must win sindrome. It is such a complex game that if not approched halfway serious can lead to a very light wallet.

[alysheba88]

Great topic. One thing I have always been fascinated about over the years is how everything is cyclical and how history repeats itself time and again.

My big losing streaks inevitably end up with a huge score. Alternatively my big losing streaks start after I have had an incredible hot streak. Time and again. Think Beyer even referred to this in one of his books. When losing and losing consistently you (or at least I) tend to study harder and harder until finally back to the wall you break out. And then of course when winning consistently hubris sets in, you get a little sloppy and convinced in the inevitability of your success and/or just lose some tough beats and before you know it the downslide continues.

Have found the last year or two the peaks and valleys have been less, due to an increased emphasis on win betting.

The pyschological part of betting is the least appreciated and understood part of gambling. I will take a person who has little handicapping skills but great gambling skills over the reverse every day of the week.

[InsideThePylons-MW]

A winning player that consistently has big streaks/swings (winning and losing), will always monetarily do better than the selective consistent winning player.

[ranchwest]

Originally posted by InsideThePylons-MW
A winning player that consistently has big streaks/swings (winning and losing), will always monetarily do better than the selective consistent winning player.

Well, most of the successful people I've seen were selective and consistent. The pro's I've run across like to pay the bills at the first of the month.

[InsideThePylons-MW]

Originally posted by ranchwest
Well, most of the successful people I've seen were selective and consistent. The pro's I've run across like to pay the bills at the first of the month.

Obviously you and the pros that you have run across don't understand the point I made. The winning pros that understand my point don't ever have to worry about bills at the first of the month.

[ranchwest]

Originally posted by InsideThePylons-MW
Obviously you and the pros that you have run across don't understand the point I made. The winning pros that understand my point don't ever have to worry about bills at the first of the month.

Obviously you didn't understand my point. I've never run across any pro's that didn't focus on being selective and consistent. Please don't interpret this as saying they play chalk. That's not the case. They play winners, seldom a losing week.

If you're Larry Bird (in his prime), you don't shoot from half court. You know you can make plenty of three pointers from the arc that count the same and those lay-ups are nice, too.

[Cratos]

Playing the “ponies” is a two-part game: (1) Handicapping – the analyzing and the selecting of the horse(s) to bet and (2) Betting – the wagering on the selections made.

Therefore I have found that typically losing come from one or the other: a poor handicapper and a good bettor or conversely a good handicapper and a poor bettor.

However with some structure to your playing the ponies endeavor you can become a winner.

In nearly 40 years in this game, every winning player that I have known had a “bankroll” to start and managed that bankroll as you would any other investment.

Personally I do the same thing; I start each “betting year” with a bankroll. I limit my total bets to 40 -50 bets per year at individual wagering amounts ranging from $200 - $2500 per bet. I bet win only (no exotics) and at odds of 3 – 1 or better. I bet only stake races (preferably graded stakes) and I bet only at NYRA, the Triple Crown, and the Breeders’ Cup races. I do not bet Aqueduct winter racing.

My betting is driven by (a) Attitude – being emotionally comfortable with my selection win or lose, (b) Affordability – being able to afford the wager to I am making, (c) Discipline – Stay the course, I am not “wishy-washy” and I don’t let anyone change my mind, it is my choice that I have made and I live with the results, (d) Patience – I wait for the right betting opportunity and they always come. Maury Wills, the former LA Dodger shortstop once said “Luck is when opportunity meet preparedness.”