2013 NFL thread

[Valuist]

Got my first wager: a simple wager with a co-worker on win totals. Not even a conventional O/U, but a head to head. I've got Kansas City; he's got Oakland.

KC was tied for dead last in turnover margin at a horrific minus 24. While Alex Smith may not be a Pro Bowl QB, he's become very good at not turning the ball over the past 2 seasons. This is exactly what the Chiefs need. There is some talent on the Chiefs team. No, they aren't going to win 11 games but I'm sure they are much better than their 2-14 record last year.

As for the Raiders, they've got huge problems. They are making a big gamble on a QB who basically has 2 games experience in the NFL. Maybe Flynn was just in bad situations; he wasn't going to start in Green Bay, and Russell Wilson had a very good rookie season. But Flynn didn't even win the job in camp last year, which was surprising. The Raiders defense is just horrific. While they won two more games than the Chiefs last year, I'm quite confident they will be in the AFC West cellar this year.

[ManU918]

Was the guy you made this bet with drunk?

[Robert Goren]

KC made a big up grade at head coach. Talent is a bit on the thin side though. Oakland on the other hand is a mess. Lots of unproven talent. Barring some unforeseen injuries, I like your bet. Trading Flynn for Palmer and Smith for whomever is worth more than 2 games for the Chiefs. Plus the Chiefs get an easier schedule than the Raiders.

[Robert Fischer]

Hey, who can complain when you go against the Raiders?

Not really up to date, but I know the Chiefs have had a lot of salary cap invested into positions(and good players) that they are not productive in. Very wasteful and inefficient with their resources.

Reid is a player's coach, and he'll have these guys at least playing solid football.

The Raiders are fairly likely to implode as usual. A quick look at their cap shows a bunch of dead money(guys who aren't playing, but owed $). Flynn is actually pretty cheap as far as QBs. They may be trying to clear cap, get some free agents in 2014, but this is all speculation from a quick glance.

[Valuist]

Was the guy you made this bet with drunk?

He's a die hard Raiders fan. But I don't feel guilty making this bet.

[Valuist]

KC made a big up grade at head coach. Talent is a bit on the thin side though. Oakland on the other hand is a mess. Lots of unproven talent. Barring some unforeseen injuries, I like your bet. Trading Flynn for Palmer and Smith for whomever is worth more than 2 games for the Chiefs. Plus the Chiefs get an easier schedule than the Raiders.

I forgot to mention Reid in my original post. Huge upgrade.

[wiffleball whizz]

Got my first wager: a simple wager with a co-worker on win totals. Not even a conventional O/U, but a head to head. I've got Kansas City; he's got Oakland.

KC was tied for dead last in turnover margin at a horrific minus 24. While Alex Smith may not be a Pro Bowl QB, he's become very good at not turning the ball over the past 2 seasons. This is exactly what the Chiefs need. There is some talent on the Chiefs team. No, they aren't going to win 11 games but I'm sure they are much better than their 2-14 record last year.

As for the Raiders, they've got huge problems. They are making a big gamble on a QB who basically has 2 games experience in the NFL. Maybe Flynn was just in bad situations; he wasn't going to start in Green Bay, and Russell Wilson had a very good rookie season. But Flynn didn't even win the job in camp last year, which was surprising. The Raiders defense is just horrific. While they won two more games than the Chiefs last year, I'm quite confident they will be in the AFC West cellar this year.

You got yourself a winner....prob by 3 games.....Reid will have arrowhead being the best Home field advantage in football once again

Chiefs at raiders last year might have literally saved my life last year,...without going back and googling I had a big play on the losing team last year I wanna say i had the home raiders and they got buried.....Now keep in mind hurricane sandy is about 12-15 hours away from crushing the shore where I live at halftime of this game I know I'm not winning so I
Go in my room and I can literally hear the waves crushing the shoreline like I've never heard before......I said F*** this packed my bags and went north....had I stayed it would have been a nightmare....glad I had losing side there Hahahahaha

Off top of my head here are some plays on team over unders

San Fran under 11.5
Atlanta under 10 -105
St Louis Rams over 8
New York jets over 7
Denver over 12

[wiffleball whizz]

Starting in August when week 1 lines are up I'll be running a forum football handicapping contest.....gonna go by scores and odds.com opening lines,..

It's gonna consist of all college and nfl games with a line.....your gonna pick 7 games with 2 of the 7 as best bets....a win is worth 1 point And a best bet is worth 2 points......

Your gonna be able to pick any team or any over under providing there is a opening line on scores and odds.com

As long as the moderators say its ok there's gonn be 2 prizes in it....gonna be a first half of the season pool and a overall season pool....I figure $100 gift card for first half 250 for the season.......and maybe a .10 voucher for last place lololo...

I'm figuring I'll have a computer when I move to Maryland so there will be a spreadsheet of some sort with everybody's picks....

If the majority just want to use nfl that can be done but it seems Everybody is a football master come monday morning so this pool will separate the men from the boys in terms of handicapping football......you will have about 200 sides/totals to pick from and there will be clowns that brick off 7 and go 0/7....

I'm very much looking forward to running a pool to see who the best is....the cream will rise to the top....

[precocity]

Starting in August when week 1 lines are up I'll be running a forum football handicapping contest.....gonna go by scores and odds.com opening lines,..

It's gonna consist of all college and nfl games with a line.....your gonna pick 7 games with 2 of the 7 as best bets....a win is worth 1 point And a best bet is worth 2 points......

Your gonna be able to pick any team or any over under providing there is a opening line on scores and odds.com

As long as the moderators say its ok there's gonn be 2 prizes in it....gonna be a first half of the season pool and a overall season pool....I figure $100 gift card for first half 250 for the season.......and maybe a .10 voucher for last place lololo...

I'm figuring I'll have a computer when I move to Maryland so there will be a spreadsheet of some sort with everybody's picks....

If the majority just want to use nfl that can be done but it seems Everybody is a football master come monday morning so this pool will separate the men from the boys in terms of handicapping football......you will have about 200 sides/totals to pick from and there will be clowns that brick off 7 and go 0/7....

I'm very much looking forward to running a pool to see who the best is....the cream will rise to the top....

IM so down with that home skillet! :cool:

[Valuist]

2013-2014 season Super Bowl odds:

San Francisco 6-1
Denver 6-1
Seattle 8-1
New England 8-1
Green Bay 15-1
Atlanta 18-1
Houston 18-1

everyone else 20-1 or higher

[wiffleball whizz]

2013-2014 season Super Bowl odds:

San Francisco 6-1
Denver 6-1
Seattle 8-1
New England 8-1
Green Bay 15-1
Atlanta 18-1
Houston 18-1

everyone else 20-1 or higher

How dead do the line makers think green bay is......15/1 seems like a steal but they know more then anybody else....wouldn't bet green bay with food stamps

[wiffleball whizz]

And I'd love to book at Seattle at 8/1 too....another over hyped team that will be 7-1 at home and 2-6 on the road

[Robert Fischer]

San Fran under 11.5

The 9ers on the verge of having that 'super bowl swagger' and winning 12-14 games

but you also have the sophomore jinx for the young QB, combined with the fact that Alex Smith is gone.

Casual fans will laugh off the loss of Smith, but having a reliable backup does wonders for the confidence of a team to run their starting QB aggressively.
Any injuries or even protective play calling for Kaepernick could be a 1-2 game swing for the regular season.

[buzzy]

Originally Posted by Valuist
2013-2014 season Super Bowl odds:

San Francisco 6-1
Denver 6-1
Seattle 8-1
New England 8-1
Green Bay 15-1
Atlanta 18-1
Houston 18-1



count me in your contest

the value on that line is Atlanta. HUGE upgrade at running back. with those wide receivers and tight end hard to stop. little worried about defense

[wiffleball whizz]

Originally Posted by Valuist
2013-2014 season Super Bowl odds:

San Francisco 6-1
Denver 6-1
Seattle 8-1
New England 8-1
Green Bay 15-1
Atlanta 18-1
Houston 18-1



count me in your contest

the value on that line is Atlanta. HUGE upgrade at running back. with those wide receivers and tight end hard to stop. little worried about defense

Thinking of starting the contest tonight pending PA or cj approval....lines are up for week 1 so you can strike while the iron is hot....if u think a line is off get it in now!!!

[Valuist]

Originally Posted by Valuist
2013-2014 season Super Bowl odds:

San Francisco 6-1
Denver 6-1
Seattle 8-1
New England 8-1
Green Bay 15-1
Atlanta 18-1
Houston 18-1



count me in your contest

the value on that line is Atlanta. HUGE upgrade at running back. with those wide receivers and tight end hard to stop. little worried about defense

Falcons are a fraud. Outgained opponents by a total of 60 yards. Not per game, but for the entire season. And yet 13-3? Their defense is completely predicated on forcing turnovers. Not a good tackling unit.

[horses4courses]

List your top 4 contenders, and 4 most overrated NFL teams going into the upcoming season.
I haven't been following the rosters, so I'm reluctant to give an opinion.
Eager to hear from those who watch the sport closely.

[Valuist]

List your top 4 contenders, and 4 most overrated NFL teams going into the upcoming season.
I haven't been following the rosters, so I'm reluctant to give an opinion.
Eager to hear from those who watch the sport closely.

Overrated is much easier: Atlanta, Seattle, New England and Minnesota

I already mentioned Atlanta earlier. Seattle has good personnel but lets see how Russell Wilson handles year 2. He, RG3 and Kaepernick took the league by storm and I think opposing defenses are going to be much more ready for them. I'm a fan of Lynch but guys who run that hard and take that many hits aren't long for the league. They have taken more Super Bowl $$ than anyone (were bet down from 18-1 to 8-1). As for Minnesota, they had a lot of breaks and a lot was made of their draft. They now have two mediocre QBs. NE is loaded with distractions, adding Tebow, being tied to at least one murder trial, and losing virtually all their receiving corp (unknown how long Gronk will be out).

Underrated or SB contenders? Lets talk underrated, which is all that matters in the world of 11-10. I'd say Miami, KC and Cleveland. I think all can win more games than they won last year. I may even put Detroit in there. Detroit just needs to stop being so stupid. One of the dumbest teams I've ever seen. KC was -24 in turnovers and upgrade from Cassel to Alex Smith, who does not turn ball over. Crennel was one of worst coaches in league and Reid will make a definite positive impact. Sharps have been hammering Dolphins in the season win totals. Many are expecting QB Tannenhill to take a step forward in year 2.

[justin]

2013-2014 season Super Bowl odds:

San Francisco 6-1
Denver 6-1
Seattle 8-1
New England 8-1
Green Bay 15-1
Atlanta 18-1
Houston 18-1

everyone else 20-1 or higher

I'm a homer but no respect for the Ravens?

There's a lot of reasons not to like the Ravens just looking at all the losses to FA/retirement but just about all of these holes have been filled with faster, younger, and more athletic players.

I love Ray and Ed and their leadership will be missed but their play had declined substantially the last few seasons. It may take a few games to gel but the defense should be much better than last year. Our d-line was a glaring weakness, they got pushed around most of the year and now the interior line is loaded.

Finally having a coordinator that runs an offense based on principles from this millennium is refreshing. With Cameron, even I could guess what was coming most of the time...so how hard could it have been for opposing defenses????? GOOD RIDDANCE :) I don't think you can reasonably expect Flacco to put up the kind of numbers he did in the playoffs over 16 games but I certainly think you can expect them to be better than what he did in the regular season last year.

[wiffleball whizz]

List your top 4 contenders, and 4 most overrated NFL teams going into the upcoming season.
I haven't been following the rosters, so I'm reluctant to give an opinion.
Eager to hear from those who watch the sport closely.

Overrated: San Fran Atlanta Seattle Detroit....(notice the dome teams)

Underrated......Denver(so good can't be hyped enough) bears, Dallas, giants

Sounds dumb I know but it's what I like.....

And yes Atlanta is the fraud of frauds......never do I trust them sticky birds

[Zydeco]

Glad to see the Packers are under all the radars... just the way we like it.

[Zaf]

My Crazy Prediction Post.

Superbowl : Denver vs. Dallas

Even Crazier , Jets win 7 games :lol:

Z

[Robert Goren]

under rated Vikings N.O. Rams Cin
Over rated Dal Pit Chi Jets

[wiffleball whizz]

under rated Vikings N.O. Rams Cin
Over rated Dal Pit Chi Jets

Vikes under rated

Buffalo gonna have big year love the qb shot they took....kids a awesome qb

[wiffleball whizz]

Glad to see the Packers are under all the radars... just the way we like it.

No way.........green bay is a also run this year.....I think there is a chance they finish behind minny and the bears.....

I'm not buying into the packers for a penny....

If I had to pick now a Super Bowl matchup I'd say Denver vs giants

Bottom dwellers in football this year.....Oakland, Arizona, tennesee and Jax

Teams that will be dangerous that you bet the Money line on every game is Indy, minny and Carolina......3 teams that will win games when a 4-7 point dog....can already see Carolina smoking new orleans when Carolina is home

And minny chopping up a pack team at home while plus about 170....

[precocity]

Overrated: San Fran Atlanta Seattle Detroit....(notice the dome teams)

Underrated......Denver(so good can't be hyped enough) bears, Dallas, giants

Sounds dumb I know but it's what I like.....

And yes Atlanta is the fraud of frauds......never do I trust them sticky birds
I know im a homer but i think dallas takes the east and goes deep in the playoffs, thats if the defence stays healthy!

[wiffleball whizz]

I know im a homer but i think dallas takes the east and goes deep in the playoffs, thats if the defence stays healthy!

Not sure what you are hearing in big D but it seems to me Dallas is sneeking under the radar this year.......big year for them

[Valuist]

Dallas is never under the radar. They are always overhyped and primed to disappoint. Lots of talent but they find ways to lose games.

[buzzy]

Quote:
Originally Posted by buzzy
Originally Posted by Valuist
2013-2014 season Super Bowl odds:

San Francisco 6-1
Denver 6-1
Seattle 8-1
New England 8-1
Green Bay 15-1
Atlanta 18-1
Houston 18-1



count me in your contest

the value on that line is Atlanta. HUGE upgrade at running back. with those wide receivers and tight end hard to stop. little worried about defense


Falcons are a fraud. Outgained opponents by a total of 60 yards. Not per game, but for the entire season. And yet 13-3? Their defense is completely predicated on forcing turnovers. Not a good tackling unit.









i'm not saying they're the best team. what i'm saying is according to the line they offer the most VALUE. they made it to the NFC championship, and i think made a huge upgrade with steven jackson. osi is bringing 2 rings into that locker room. it's not all X's and O's. i agree with some of your points but 18/1 is woth the risk

[Valuist]

A lot of people playing the "Payton card" that Sean Payton's return will automatically return the Saints to their glory of several seasons ago.

I don't get it. Payton is an offensive minded coach, and their offense was not a problem last year. They performed well. Their defense was absolutely horrible. One of the worst in recent history. It was basically 11 cardboard cutouts out there. Its going to take a while for them to re-work that defense.

[Maximillion]

Falcons are a fraud. Outgained opponents by a total of 60 yards. Not per game, but for the entire season. And yet 13-3? Their defense is completely predicated on forcing turnovers. Not a good tackling unit.

Imo a lot of the point (or yardage) differential may have been attributed to them being on cruise-control, having basically wrapped up a high seed early.

They have some leaks on defense for sure......but imo they can be patched up.
I was very impressed with Ryan last post-season and they are my early SB pick.

[Valuist]

Imo a lot of the point (or yardage) differential may have been attributed to them being on cruise-control, having basically wrapped up a high seed early.

They have some leaks on defense for sure......but imo they can be patched up.
I was very impressed with Ryan last post-season and they are my early SB pick.

That division is VERY interesting. Its much more evenly balanced than most people realize. Atlanta was 5-1 in games decided by 4 points or less. Carolina, OTOH, was 0-6 in games decided by 6 points or less, and they still almost were .500. Tampa had one huge weakness (pass defense) but they are addressed that by signing Revis.

[Maximillion]

Overrated is much easier: Atlanta, Seattle, New England and Minnesota

I already mentioned Atlanta earlier. Seattle has good personnel but lets see how Russell Wilson handles year 2. He, RG3 and Kaepernick took the league by storm and I think opposing defenses are going to be much more ready for them. I'm a fan of Lynch but guys who run that hard and take that many hits aren't long for the league. They have taken more Super Bowl $$ than anyone (were bet down from 18-1 to 8-1). As for Minnesota, they had a lot of breaks and a lot was made of their draft. They now have two mediocre QBs. NE is loaded with distractions, adding Tebow, being tied to at least one murder trial, and losing virtually all their receiving corp (unknown how long Gronk will be out).

Underrated or SB contenders? Lets talk underrated, which is all that matters in the world of 11-10. I'd say Miami, KC and Cleveland. I think all can win more games than they won last year. I may even put Detroit in there. Detroit just needs to stop being so stupid. One of the dumbest teams I've ever seen. KC was -24 in turnovers and upgrade from Cassel to Alex Smith, who does not turn ball over. Crennel was one of worst coaches in league and Reid will make a definite positive impact. Sharps have been hammering Dolphins in the season win totals. Many are expecting QB Tannenhill to take a step forward in year 2.


What about the Cardinals? (as underated or an improver)

I didnt get the chance to see a lot of Cardinal football last year, but in the few games I did it was one of the more anemic offenses Ive seen in recent memory.

Carson Palmer has to be an upgrade for them....maybe this ship has sailed,but I wouldnt be too surprised to see him rejuvenated a little by the change of scenery...its likely his last chance.Really, all he has to be is average and its a major improvement on that side of the ball.

Defense actually pretty solid last year.
#1 in opponents QB rating.(with basically no help)