Handicapping Slump/Problem

[TravisVOX]

Well I'm looking for some advice to help dig myself out of this mental-grind so-to-speak...

Last fall I enjoyed great success at the races, particularly Belmont fall. Since then though i've been suffering through a series of slumps, with just a few spot wins here or there...

When I sit down to handicap a race, following a thorough read of the conditions, I find myself almost lost in the data. In other words, I look at stuff, but then look elsewhere, I find myself skipping over data (Brisnet PP's are so condensed, I was told by an author just yesterday to drop them, and go back to DRF despite the price. He said the layout etc. makes them a much better tool...his exact words, "I strongly urge you to switch back to DRF."

Anyways, this situation, though probably unique, hopefully hasn't been experienced by too many. However, on the other hand I hope it has because I'm interested in finding out how to dig myself out of the rut. It's hard to explain, but I'm having a hard time of finding the best place to start I guess. What horse do I look at first? Or what aspect of the horse's running line means the most etc.

I know this sounds elementary, but I have been playing for a while. I think in part i'm trying to find ways to dig myself out of the slump, but at the same time, I feel like I'm starting at square-one when i've been working at this game for years!

I hope someone can provide some thoughts.

Travis

[lwinston67]

It souunds like you're in a very confused state at the moment. The PP's might as well be chinese. The first thing I do when I'm in a slump is take some time off. When you come back you'll see things more clearly and won't be thinking about yesterday's "disaster". I would suggest at least a couple of days, and if you can stand it, a week or more. In your downtime, read a handicapping book or two that you've never read, or reread one that was helpful to you in the past. It might give you a new perspective on how to approach things. I've taken as long as six months off in the past, and am better for it today. Don't press things when they're not going well.

Good luck.

[ceejay]

When that happens to me I try to take some time off and "get back to basics."

[shanta]

Travis, i had a similar losing period where i had no clue what i was doing or looking at.try this maybe it will help
1) for the next 10 days do not look at a racing form or anything to do with racing period.
2)i don't know whether or not you exercise but regardless take 30 minutes a day (every day) and get outside and walk.
3) you said you had an excellent fall meet at belmont in particular right?ok as you are walking start picturing the things and routines you were doing then while winning. when were you doing your cappin? morning, night? remember the positive experiences that were happening during your good run.
4)repeat this over and over every day while you are walking.
5) after a week is up the next 3 days just picture yourself walking to the window to place a bet and after the race is over walking to the window to collect your winnings.while you are visualizing this just let it happen , don't force anything.
6) if you have a library near you Travis i would strongly suggest finding a copy of "the inner game of tennis" to read.This book will give you more of a chance to win then all the "cappin" books combined. just my opinion.

hope this helps, Richie

[trying2win]

Travis,

What an amazing coincidence! I just posted about a similar topic shortly after you posted yours.

T2W

[JustRalph]

Travis...

I have been through this more than a few times.

The advice on taking a break is good. You must also realize that you will do a better job at Handicapping one track over another. For that matter, one circuit over another. I don't know anyone who kills em at every track or circuit.

I like to read the basic handicapping books that are stored on the shelf in my office, during my breaks. Remember what Jerry Reed Said..... "When your Hot your Hot, When your not Your Not!"

[bettheoverlay]

PPs often look like hyroglyphics to me, and defeatism can rear its ugly head after just a couple of losses. But the challenge of picking winners is too irresistable, and it is one of the few interests I have sustained throughout my life. Philosophically, you can make the argument that the real meaning is in the process, not in the actual winning and losing.

I have overcome the frustration recently by only using traditional handicapping to a handful of races a day, for me that is Stakes races and/or higher class turf races. I enjoy handicapping and watching these races and I don't burn out.

For the rest, I use the Bris PPs downloaded into their Custom PP Generator, sorted by Prime Power order. Quick look through the list marking off those horses that I think have a chance. Then I apply a bettable odds structure to the list of contendors. 4/1 for the first, 5/1 for the next 2, 8/1 for whatever is left. Spend about a minute a race. Doing well with this approach on the win end, although I give a lot back in the P3s. And if I have a losing day, I can always blame the numbers.

[kenwoodallpromos]

If you take a vacation from it, use the time to force yourself to paper test new systems or types of bets by combining factors you use or know of that are based in common sense. I come up with some great ideas that way!

[sq764]

Easy solution.. It's baseball season!!

There are games on every single night.. If you love baseball, you can always just stop what you are doing (capping) and watcha game..

[JustRalph]

Originally posted by sq764
Easy solution.. It's baseball season!!There are games on every single night.. If you love baseball, you can always just stop what you are doing (capping) and watcha game..

Yeah.....and if you are a Cincinnati Reds fan you still have at least a month before Ken Griffey Junior Pulls a ham string and is out for the season! Yahoooooooo!!!!!

[ranchwest]

Try this:

1) Pick one track. Bet no other track for the week.
2) Only bet fast/firm tracks for this week.
3) Make no more than two bets per day.
4) If this isn't giving you a positive ROI after a few days, scale back your wagers.
5) Go to 1).

[Exactaman]

how long you been playing Travis? how long did your good spell last fall last? any other good stretches that stand out?

[acorn54]

keep records! you don't know for sure what you are doing profit or loss unless you have records.
horseracing is a game of statistical events. if you were winning at a 35% clip and your records indicate you are now winning at a 25% clip you may just be in a cold streak.
even .300 baseball players have streaks where they have 15 consecutive hitless at-bats. it's the nature of probabilty.

[TravisVOX]

Thanks for responding everyone! I have a week off from school right now...I might be earning my college degree in communications, but I'm getting more hours in the form than any other place. It's all good.

I think one of my problems is over-analysis...in that, I'm trying to incorporate too many variables. I wish I had more time at this very moment to respond more, but I'll log back on later and post some details of the research I intend to do tonight. Taking what everyone has said about "find what works" is what I'm going to do...

Thanks.

[Derek2U]

LISTEN 2 THESE GUYS HERE ...do not listen 2 me cause i only bet
on weekends + a few other times rarely. bUt what Fun i have ..
i think racing & capping & investigating past races gotta be as up there with einstein's work ... lol ... to me it is .

[JohnGalt1]

I hope this helps.

During the bad times I take some time off.

I reread the books that help me the most.

1) Total Victory at the Track,Scott
2) Pace Makes the Race, Sartin

I keep old worksheets and programs of successful days and I look at them to see what I was doing right. It lets me know I did and can win again when I follow my rules.

And to replenish the bankroll from "other" job.

[Larry Hamilton]

Each of us has two over-riding limits--mental stamina and finances. I dont think rest and recharge is the answer. I think some adjustments are necesssary or it will all happen again.

You have obviously set you playing goal too high. Lets say you have decided that you will only play 5:1 or higher and that you have no time for the chalk. In fact you sneer at those who bet chalk. This is admirable but the real question is can you stand the long run outs. Does it weigh on you? Similarly, do you have the bankroll to play every dollar exactly the same or do you bet scared money?

So, my advice is to change your goals to fit what you can stand. If you dont, you are buying a ticket for the nut house.

[ranchwest]

TravisVox,

I hope this doesn't come across as harsh, my intent is to help....

You say that you feel you are incorporating too many variables. Maybe you just aren't currently able to assimilate the number of variables you are using. Scale back and then learn to add more.

IMHO, the key is to find things, both positive and negative, that jump off the page at you. It takes a long time to build up the list of things you recognize. Keep working at it, you'll learn.

[jotb]

Hello Travis:


Slumps are the opposite of winning streaks. If you had winning streaks in the past it's obvious, you can pick winners and were not just getting lucky. This boils down to a lack of confidence. My suggestion is for you to handicap the tracks you normally wager at and focus on the "show" spot . Cashing a few "show wagers" will boost your moral. This should be done for a full week. It helps take the pressure off you to pick winners. Don't focus on making money just focus on picking a horse that will hit the board.

Good luck and let me know how you make out.
Joe

[TravisVOX]

I think it boils down to confidence. And I analyzed and thought about things, and it also boils down to money management. My money is not going to the right bets, or in the right fashion. But as everyone knows, no author really dives into some good money management (at least from what I've found).

Secondly, I've noticed that what worked for me at Belmont isn't necessarily not working, it's that I'm not using it. I enjoy watching video, and acquiring a knowledge for how a horse ran. I'll admit that I haven't been doing that as diligently. A lot of my friends/family insist the races can't be beat, and I just want to prove them wrong. Leaving such things as race-replays out of the equation are brutal to my game.

I really do appreciate all responses. I know the streak will end soon enough, but it just drags one down. I have been reading books to restore some thoughts and ideas, some confidence and for the sake of sanity. Hopefully things roll back downhill soon...

[shanta]

check your private messages when you get a chance .
Richie

[Exactaman]

Originally posted by TravisVOX
I enjoy watching video, and acquiring a knowledge for how a horse ran. I'll admit that I haven't been doing that as diligently.

Could be your answer right there. By the way I'll vouch for it, that's a huge part of my capping, harness however.



A lot of my friends/family insist the races can't be beat, and I just want to prove them wrong. Leaving such things as race-replays out of the equation are brutal to my game.

If your family is like mine you will have to buy a benz or something before they believe you :)

[ranchwest]

TravisVOX,

I've noticed that a lot of successful people review the same material over and over.

This weekend I went to a retreat where a trombone player was used as an example. He was very talented, but every day he played the "beginner's" scales over and over. When someone asked, he replied that he just wanted to make sure he didn't forget.

Horse racing is such that one mental lapse can cost a lot of money. I think it is good to have a solid understanding of what is putting you on the road to success.