Saratoga Early Speed

[traynor]

An interesting validation of Pandy's admonitions to pay attention to early speed, with a slight twist.

Stga Trot CloseToPace1CLastOddsAll 250 6.80 % ROI 1.16
Stga Trot CloseToPace2CLastOddsAll 250 8.80 % ROI 1.18
Stga Trot CloseToPace3CLastOddsAll 250 9.20 % ROI 0.98
Stga Trot CloseToPaceFinLastOddsAll 250 16.40 % ROI 0.90

Close is 2 lengths or less. What the numbers suggest is that trotters close to the pace in the second half of the race win with increasing frequency--but not often enough to compensate for the additional betting that performance encourages. Being close to the leader at the three-quarter or finish obviously indicates "good current form" and is bet down accordingly. (Close up at the stretch call is so overbet it doesn't even show up on this scale--meaning the ROI is below 0.90)

The interesting part is that trotters close to the pace in the early stages of the race are apparently overlooked by bettors who focus more on the second half of the race to evaluate current form.

[mrroyboy]

So you are saying upclose at the first or second call show a flat bet profit?

[traynor]

So you are saying upclose at the first or second call show a flat bet profit?
Exactly so.

"Stga Trot CloseToPace2CLastOddsAll 250 8.80 % ROI 1.18" means that using the beaten lengths relative to the leader at the second call in the last race as the criteria, flat betting every instance of that happening resulted in an ROI of 118% (1.18).

The information can also be used in reverse--if the horse selected fits the profile "Stga Trot CloseToPaceFinLastOddsAll 250 16.40 % ROI 0.90"--regardless of any other factors or attributes that horse may or may not have--it is still likely to be a bad bet because it will be overbet by the crowd focused on current form as an indicator. The result of betting all instances is an ROI of 90% (0.90)--a loss of $0.10 for every dollar wagered. Not a good thing.

[traynor]

One of the things that seems to cause a lot of consternation is that I have repeatedly stated I don't pay much attention to the tote board for individual races. The reason is that the models I use are designed to "predict" those odds over multiple races. Some are up, some are down, but overall the "projected" odds will be relatively accurate.

[DeltaLover]

One of the things that seems to cause a lot of consternation is that I have repeatedly stated I don't pay much attention to the tote board for individual races. The reason is that the models I use are designed to "predict" those odds over multiple races. Some are up, some are down, but overall the "projected" odds will be relatively accurate.

I completely agree

:ThmbUp:

[pandy]

Saratoga harness is very speed favoring, so you may get similar results from Harrington, which is even more speed favoring.

[traynor]

Saratoga harness is very speed favoring, so you may get similar results from Harrington, which is even more speed favoring.

Apparently the bettors at Harrington are well aware of situation:

Har Pace CloseToPace1CLastOddsAll 602 12.13 % ROI 0.68
Har Trot CloseToPace1CLastOddsAll 133 9.77 % ROI 0.75

Har Pace CloseToPace2CLastOddsAll 602 12.62 % ROI 0.71
Har Trot CloseToPace2CLastOddsAll 133 14.29 % ROI 0.88

Har Pace CloseToPace3CLastOddsAll 602 10.63 % ROI 0.75
Har Trot CloseToPace3CLastOddsAll 133 12.78 % ROI 0.88

Har Pace CloseToPaceStrLastOddsAll 602 3.82 % ROI 0.99
Har Trot CloseToPaceStrLastOddsAll 133 3.76 % ROI 0.96

Har Pace CloseToPaceFinLastOddsAll 602 7.48 % ROI 0.60
Har Trot CloseToPaceFinLastOddsAll 133 13.53 % ROI 0.58

An interesting side issue is the dismal performance of the stretch call as a predictor of subsequent performance.

[traynor]

Saratoga harness is very speed favoring, so you may get similar results from Harrington, which is even more speed favoring.

Because I build models exclusively for wagering purposes, I probably look at track profiles in a different way. Harrington may be speed favoring from the standpoint of win percentages, but not from the standpoint of profit potential. Because the models I build are correlated with ROI, the emphasis is always on the track specifics in conjunction with ROI (rather than just track specifics).

Monticello is another track at which bettors tend to be a bit more aware than most of what performance indicators are important, and bet them down accordingly.

[badcompany]

I don't think any money is bet on Harrington until there's 30 seconds until post, then the odd suddenly change dramatically, and yes, the speed numbers get over bet. The $6-7 exacta is not an uncommon sight.

I've found Batavia very speed favoring early in the meet. By the Fall, it starts getting cold up there and the closers tend to do better.