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misscashalot
06-24-2013, 10:16 AM
What are you doing?

JBmadera
06-24-2013, 11:10 AM
at some point this summer I am going to move another 25%-35% into my long equities portfolio. I expect new highs in the S&P some time in September after a summer sell off.

Valuist
06-24-2013, 11:45 AM
I usually have stop losses on a number of my stocks. Several have kicked in; technically, the market is broken for the time being. I have always felt that this was a QE driven market (and "recovery") and the moment the Fed hinted they would be getting away from that, reality would kick in.

classhandicapper
06-24-2013, 12:12 PM
I'm a looooong term investor. Holding what I own, but I have cash available if things start getting ugly.

misscashalot
06-24-2013, 01:33 PM
I dumped my entire holdings within the past 3 trading days

I phoned my Scott Trade guy and asked him what rate they can offer me, because I didn't know how long I'd be out of the market. He said that he didn't even want to tell me. I pressed him, and he said less than 1%. I thought...screw him. So I had them send me a check from the profits my account accumulated since I first bought into the market last September. I was lucky..I rode this bull market of bull markets up, and (for now at least, because they're all tanking as I write this...but strange things happen...and you never really know.) I'm pleased with myself. But I still have cash sitting, diminishing in value as we speak. So..I don't want to put it at risk, I can't put it in a bank,. and I certainly want to stay away from Wall Street until It shows some sanity.
Interesting problem?

anyone got a sure thing going today?

Robert Goren
06-24-2013, 01:37 PM
This QE stuff is uncharted territory. It is anybody's guess what going to happen when it slows. Interest rates should rise but even that is not a sure thing as foreign investors still view the US dollar as the safest place to be. My guess is that most stocks are over priced, but even that might not matter.

I have no faith that banks balance sheets are even close to accurate and what to them will determine what happens everybody else like always.

BlueShoe
06-24-2013, 03:41 PM
"Sell in May and go away." The old adage may still hold true. With the Fed indicating that the phony market props are being pulled out from under, reality may finally be setting in. It would seem that there is just no place to invest at this time. Stocks down, precious metals mauled, bonds an awful choice with higher interest rates coming, real estate still shaky, where do we go? Cash is paying zilch, like sticking it under the mattress, but at this time it might be best. Better is lose slightly at the inflation rate than to lose big time by jumping into bad investments. Still a bear, and think that we have a ways to go before hitting bottom and getting back in. Yes I know, timing the market is not supposed to work, but??

acorn54
06-24-2013, 03:58 PM
i just dollar cost average on a monthly basis and hopefully when i need the money for the rainy days it will be there

PaceAdvantage
06-24-2013, 06:47 PM
I'm not ready to say this market is headed into a prolonged downward move...we're about 2/3 of the way there...one more shoe needs to drop for me to say goodbye to those bullish feelings...daily and weekly charts have turned bearish, but monthly chart is still bullish...

And the VIX by no means has broken out of it's downward channel trend that started about a year ago...

This is indeed a tricky time...but I would by no means be selling everything just yet...

barn32
06-24-2013, 07:00 PM
...daily and weekly charts have turned bearish, but monthly chart is still bullish...

And the VIX by no means has broken out of it's downward channel trend that started about a year ago...

Oh, you mean those squiggly lines on peices of paper?

PaceAdvantage
06-24-2013, 07:02 PM
Oh, you mean those squiggly lines on peices of paper?Paper? This is 2013 man...

But thanks for another stellar contribution to a thread... :lol:

barn32
06-24-2013, 07:05 PM
Paper? This is 2013 man...

But thanks for another stellar contribution to a thread... :lol:I didn't think you'd get the reference.

PaceAdvantage
06-24-2013, 07:11 PM
I didn't think you'd get the reference.Then why post it?

RaceBookJoe
06-24-2013, 07:31 PM
The NYSE BPI flipped into a column of O's and gave a sell signal on a p&f chart , takes a big move for a column switch. Some amazing moves today.

badcompany
06-25-2013, 01:08 AM
Bullish. Another 10% down, SPY 140, would send me running for cover.

If you're a long term trader and have been shaken out by this downturn, you either don't know how to set stops, or you have a problem with testicular fortitude.

iceknight
06-25-2013, 12:20 PM
All my money is in my twinspires or tvg account :D

badcompany
07-13-2013, 08:05 AM
Bullish. Another 10% down, SPY 140, would send me running for cover.

If you're a long term trader and have been shaken out by this downturn, you either don't know how to set stops, or you have a problem with testicular fortitude.

Still bullish ;) SPY 142 shakes me out. SPY currently at 167.5.

Saratoga_Mike
07-13-2013, 11:54 AM
This thread (posted on 6/24/13) marked a low for the market. From 6/24's intraday low into yesterday's close, the S&P is up 7.6%, not bad for 19 days.

badcompany
07-13-2013, 02:12 PM
This thread (posted on 6/24/13) marked a low for the market. From 6/24's intraday low into yesterday's close, the S&P is up 7.6%, not bad for 19 days.

Pretty typical shake out. Prices come back to former highs, quickly, forcing those who were shaken out to buy back at higher prices.

BlueShoe
08-15-2013, 02:28 PM
Market down sharply today, Dow off 215 as I type these words. The start of the long anticipated correction, or a buy the dips buying opportunity?

PaceAdvantage
08-15-2013, 08:08 PM
It's funny how perceptions change over time. Only a short time ago, 200 points was a drop in the bucket. Now it's some major move...lol...shows you what a low VIX over time can do to trading psyche...

lamboguy
08-15-2013, 08:29 PM
after following the markets for 30 years, i learned something new last night watching Jim Cramer of Mad Money. he was showing a chart of AAPL that some chart service provided him with. it was a fibornacci chart of time. it measured the last 2 trends for Apple. prior to the price falling the stock had something like 84 days of going up, the chart then measured the downtrend on the stock and that came out to about 136 days which equated out to be a 1-1.618 move off the prior trend which always calls for an immediate trend reversal. i went and back tested about 50 different equities that fit the pattern and found that 30 of them had this exact same move. i back tested it with the etf for gold, and that hit perfectly. this is the best timing indicator that i have ever seen and i never thought that such a thing could possibly ever exist.

PaceAdvantage
08-15-2013, 08:48 PM
Yeah, but the real trick is making money with it... :lol:

tucker6
08-15-2013, 09:02 PM
Yeah, but the real trick is making money with it... :lol:
exactly!! If it was that easy to get rich, we'd all be owner's of PaceAdvantage... :p

Tape Reader
08-18-2013, 01:46 PM
after following the markets for 30 years, i learned something new last night watching Jim Cramer of Mad Money. he was showing a chart of AAPL that some chart service provided him with. it was a fibornacci chart of time. it measured the last 2 trends for Apple. prior to the price falling the stock had something like 84 days of going up, the chart then measured the downtrend on the stock and that came out to about 136 days which equated out to be a 1-1.618 move off the prior trend which always calls for an immediate trend reversal. i went and back tested about 50 different equities that fit the pattern and found that 30 of them had this exact same move. i back tested it with the etf for gold, and that hit perfectly. this is the best timing indicator that i have ever seen and i never thought that such a thing could possibly ever exist.

Thanks for that lamboguy. Can anyone show a chart example of this?

PaceAdvantage
08-20-2013, 01:12 AM
This market is starting to look worse than when this thread was first created back in June.

Two of the three shoes have fallen as far as what I see before I'm willing to say look out below. The daily and weekly charts have fallen...it won't be long before the monthly follows suit...if that happens, it's off to the races...just in time for that traditional time of year when markets like to crash....September/October....

Volume has been tailing off the last couple of sessions, so for now, I would say the buyers are going to bid this thing up and try and fill that gap from last Thursday....test resistance around the 1680 level on the S&P.

The VIX is in an interesting position as well. If it doesn't start falling soon, it's going to around the 20 level for sure in the next couple of weeks...

PaceAdvantage
08-20-2013, 09:31 PM
Well today was an up day, which kind of figured seeing as how the sell volume was dying off pretty markedly the prior couple of sessions.

However, today was a very weak up day. Volume was crap again, lower than the three prior down days. The S&P just barely closed above the middle point of today's range. And it once again closed below the 50 day moving average on the daily chart, a level that has been providing support for this rally all year long.

Will the Fed Minutes provide enough of a catalyst to push this thing lower? The VIX seems like it will want to go up tomorrow...this thing looks as weak to me today as it did yesterday, although I still think it's going to go back up and set itself up for the big fall come the next earnings season in Ocotober...

I would still be holding tight right now, although the bias is definitely towards the down side.

badcompany
08-21-2013, 12:13 AM
Well today was an up day, which kind of figured seeing as how the sell volume was dying off pretty markedly the prior couple of sessions.

I would still be holding tight right now, although the bias is definitely towards the down side.

According to which metric?

I'm seeing a market that's ~6.5% above the 200sma. From a long term standpoint, the trend is still up.

With regard to Lambo's timing signal, it's not a matter of whether it can make money, but whether it can make more than an index fund or SPY.

If not, you're taking on individual stock risk for nothing.

PaceAdvantage
08-21-2013, 08:18 AM
I should have written "my bias," not the bias.

Then again, I'm still working for a living, so nobody should pay attention to what I have to say on the markets or handicapping, since neither is able to support me for a living...lol

BlueShoe
08-21-2013, 11:25 AM
Question for the chartists and technicians out there; the Dow has dropped under 15,000 as of this posting. Is this meaningful or is 15k just a imaginary barrier that does not matter? As a fundamentalist am very bearish, but how do the numbers and chart guys see things?

badcompany
08-21-2013, 12:29 PM
Question for the chartists and technicians out there; the Dow has dropped under 15,000 as of this posting. Is this meaningful or is 15k just a imaginary barrier that does not matter? As a fundamentalist am very bearish, but how do the numbers and chart guys see things?

Because of the decimal system, we place a greater importance on multiples of ten. So, it's meaningful from a psychological standpoint, as it gets the public's attention, but, unless you use that number as a sell signal, it has no practical value.

With regard to the market as a whole, August has been ugly, but we're still only five percent off an all time high. If you're a long term trader, even though your gut is telling to bail, you have to sit tight. Selling out every time there's a pullback will cause you to die a death of a thousand small cuts.

PaceAdvantage
08-21-2013, 07:14 PM
BC is correct. But I still think one must be wary of a big down move coming sooner rather than later...it's setting up again...whether it will happen, that remains to be seen.

With that said, it's more likely now than it was in June when this thread first appeared.

badcompany
10-17-2013, 04:37 PM
Still Bullish ;)

lamboguy
10-17-2013, 04:57 PM
BC is correct. But I still think one must be wary of a big down move coming sooner rather than later...it's setting up again...whether it will happen, that remains to be seen.

With that said, it's more likely now than it was in June when this thread first appeared.i say the big down move starts tomorrow!

Tape Reader
10-17-2013, 05:01 PM
i say the big down move starts tomorrow!

Wow thatís gutsy. Can you give us your thinking please?

lamboguy
10-17-2013, 05:13 PM
this expansion off the bottom calls for an immediate pullback. the high of the dow cans still get tested at 15,709 before it falls apart. i am thinking you will get some downside before it goes back to that number.

gold had wide price spread today with volume excelerated. maybe going to try to work its way back to $1500

classhandicapper
10-17-2013, 05:39 PM
I've been selling into strength and have accumulated a large cash position relative to my typical very aggressive style. But I'm not making a market call. I have no idea where the market is going next. It's just that some of the things I owned became fully priced so I sold them and I see no bargains. I also think the very long term fundamentals of the economy are poor.

Mike at A+
10-17-2013, 10:28 PM
It's up, up and away until the next manufactured debt ceiling crisis. January is the time to do some rebalancing. In the meantime, get yourself some of those 0bamabucks. Living well is the best revenge. Welfare ain't that bad after all.

RaceBookJoe
10-18-2013, 02:49 PM
All I know is that trading today was like a throwback to 1999 !!!

badcompany
10-18-2013, 05:35 PM
i say the big down move starts tomorrow!

Apparently it's holding off until Monday. :jump:

badcompany
12-18-2013, 07:05 PM
This past month, the market followed a pattern similar to that of the summer, in that a shakeout took place without taking the Dow and S&P down significantly percentage-wise.

What happened was that some of the best performing stocks took back while, at the same time, some stocks which had not performed well made gains. So, the latter, to some extent, offset the former.

My guess is there's a bevy of buying awaiting that supposedly overdue 10-15% correction, and, in the stock market, what everyone wants, no one gets. In addition, this latest Fed decision provided the pretext for the culmination of the shakeout.

I'm still all-in bullish.