DRF Expo

[ceejay]

I know that not many here will be attending, but I will. If any here are going and would like to meet up either reply here or via PM before Thus, and we'll set something up....

[Suff]

Originally posted by ceejay
I know that not many here will be attending, but I will. If any here are going and would like to meet up either reply here or via PM before Thus, and we'll set something up....

where are you staying CJ1A... curious.

[yak merchant]

I want a full report from the Brown/Ragozin/Beyer cage match.

[ceejay]

Originally posted by Suff
where are you staying CJ1A... curious.

Bellagio. I just like it better than Paris (host property).

What's that 1A? I was here before the other one (but he posts more).

[Suff]

Originally posted by ceejay
Bellagio. I just like it better than Paris (host property).

What's that 1A? I was here before the other one (but he posts more).


plus your beating him badly in the Ridersup...

and me to. I oughtta make you the 1 to beat just for that.

[Thomason]

CeeJay,

I'll be at the Paris with my friend Buzz who posts here as "Tennessee".

There are several sessions that I'm really looking forward to, in addition to the Beyer, Brown and Friedman discussion. The Brohamer-Fotias session on making your own pace figures should be fascinating and well attended. Grass racing by Quinn, Form Cycles by Cramer and trainer patterns by Litfin, Bain and Mazur should all be interesting. (The first two are at the same time so Buzz and I will have to split up and take notes.) Exotic Wagering Strategies by Meadow, Crist and Davidowitz should also be good. (Too bad that Tomcat wasn't invited.)

I'm puzzled by the absence of a session on computer handicapping. I would love to see Dave Schwartz, Dick Schmidt, Bob Purdy, Gary Hall, Ken Massa and others talk about software.

Still, it should be a lot of fun. I've heard that the race book at Paris is pretty good, too. And then there's the clincher-- I don't have to go to work for a few days.

[Turfday]

Hi guys,

I will be attending the Expo and looking forward to meeting and schmoozing with any PA posters. I have been in the handicapping biz for more than 25 years. A number of my associates are scheduled as presenters.

My websites are www.nationalturf.com and www.turfday.com.

I'm staying at the Orleans where they take good care of me, as they are a sponsor of the National Turf radio show heard every Saturday and Sunday morning in So. Calif. and on the web.

Bob Selvin

[Derek2U]

too bad i go in april .. but after a few hrs that Paris ceiling makes
me wanna dance. btw, theres a GREAT bar in that underground
mall outside the alladin. its spanish but very COOL ... lots of
grindinG babes & right across the aisle from some great W0P
eatery.

[Thomason]

Bob,

I've been to your website many times. I look forward to meeting you.

Michael Thomason

[ceejay]

I'd like to meet you guys. I'm pretty easy to spot: A bald 44 yo white guy in a black manual (power assist) wheelchair. Real-name is Craig.

[Turfday]

Looking forward to mixing and mingling with you guys as well. I hope they pass out name tags!

Craig...sounds like you'll be easiest to spot for handshakes.

[Tom]

Where can we find the National Turf radio show on the web?

[Turfday]

I co-own the show with DRF's national columnist Jay Privman and my longtime partner Jeff Siegel of Team Valor and HRTV fame.

The show airs every Saturday and Sunday morning from 8 a.m.-9 a.m. on a popular all-sports talk station in Southern California 1540AM "The Ticket" and also can be heard live on the web right at our website.... www.nationalturf.com. (see front page icon).

Obviously it would be 11 a.m.-12 noon your time in NY. Naturally, this weekend, I'll be doing my short segment on the goings on at the Expo.

Thanks for asking and hope you and any other interested PA members will tune in and give a listen.

[so.cal.fan]

Hope any of you there will go say hello to Bob.
Bob, if you read this, my late father was a loyal customer of your workout reports that you and Jeff Seigel put out, probably 25 years ago! Got them until the day he passed away in '91.
The old Handicapper's Report. That's all he ever used, he never had a losing meet at Santa Anita, used to love to box exactas!
Dad always liked you, he was a tough customer, used to call you up all the time with any complaints and you were always nice to him, even if he gave you a bad time.
Thanks.:)

[Turfday]

E-mail me at: turfday@aol.com. I'll bet that I remember your dad !

Thanks so much for the kind words. We're still publishing the workout report....it's even better now with lots more information at our nationalturf.com website.

[yak merchant]

How was it? Everybody make it back or did Vegas claim a few more victims?

YM

[sjk]

I enjoyed it very much. The sessions were interesting and well presented.

[Turfday]

I enjoyed the presentations, in particular the one on track bias presented by DRF handicappers Steve Klein, Mike Welch, Brad Free and NYRA track superintendent Jerry Porcelli.

I also have some comments on the Jerry Brown (Thoro-Graph), Andy Beyer and Len Friedman (Ragozin Sheets) match. This was the first time that these three speed figure gurus were on a panel together. I'll report on that in another post.

Hearing the very knowledgable Jerry Porcelli was very enlightening. He went into detail about how the NYRA tracks are taken care of. And while he had no first-hand knowledge of how the other superintendents on the big circuits (Kentucky, Florida, California, etc.) take care of their tracks, he did mention that the smaller tracks don't necessarily have the same equipment that the big tracks do.

Hence, it's more conceivable that if track biases do exist, they would perhaps exist longer (more days) on the smaller circuits.

As far as the "nowadays" at the bigger tracks...the safety of the horse is of first and foremost concern. Porcelli detailed the work he and his crew do. One of those things is taking soil samples at various spots on the track regularly and measuring for water (moisture) content.

How do they do that? Interesting. They WEIGH the soil sample. Then they BAKE it...to get all the water out of it. Then they WEIGH it again to get the weight without the moisture in it!

He tries to keep the NYRA tracks between .6 and .12 in water content. Factors that could change the track surface include: barometric pressure, wind, humidity, dew factor (and of course rain). However, this is CLOSELY monitored.

Assuming the bigger circuits are doing similar work to their tracks as NYRA, I came away with this.

By the time we detect a bias and feel confident there is one, the day's race card could be over and there's no guarantee with all the work they do to the track these days that the bias from the previous day will remain in place. If there is a lasting bias, then it's more likely due to how the track is graded (banked) and not how they take care of the track or natural factors (see above) In those cases, the "cat's out of the bag"...it's no secret.

The panel agreed, as I now do with them, that FAR and AWAY the best way to take advantage of a bias from a betting standpoint is to NOTE the horses that got bias-aided trips or ran against the bias and either downgrade or upgrade their chances NEXT TIME because much of the crowd won't have a clue.

More later.

[ceejay]

Bob,

That was a nice plug that Beyer gave you in his keynote talk!

[Turfday]

Thanks, CJ ! I was beaming as it was the ONLY product or service that he mentioned during his entire talk.

And, it was nice meeting you even though ever so briefly. It was hectic and it was kind of tough to schmooze with everyone.

[PaceAdvantage]

Thanks for the recap Bob...much appreciated.

[Thomason]

I enjoyed the seminar and I will go back to the next one. I commend Steve Crist and his DRF staff for their sponsorship and hard work and I commend Jim Quinn for all that he has done. It was an amazing collection of handicapping stars, whether you agree with their methods or not. And what was truly astonishing was how approachable they were. Everyone that I talked to was gracious. I had conversations with Jim Quinn, Tom Brohamer, Andy Beyer, Steve Davidowitz, Steve Klein, Brad Free, Mark Cramer, Dick Mitchell, Barry Meadow, Cary Fotias, Dave Litfin, Jim Mazur, Ed Bain, Lauren Stich, Lee Tomlinson, Harvey Pack (he was a riot), Frank Lyons and others. And then there were all the good players that I met! I got more than my money's worth.

[Suff]

nice recap and review. Also very generous of your time and experience to share it with the members.

mike

Looks like the board picked up another extremely knowledgable player in Bob Selvin.

[Thomason]

Suff,

Are you there yet? TriJack and I correspond regularly. He said he had a great time at Saratoga last year. Maybe I can meet you there this year.

Michael Thomason

[Suff]

Originally posted by Thomason
Suff,


Michael Thomason

I would very much like to be in Saratoga this summer. I'll have to see how things shake out.. If its in my plans Jack will be among the first to know. Jacks a special guy isn't he?. He and I are early risers. We saw the sun come up on the Hudson river a couple of mornings at Saratoga.. He was in Cottage 5A. I'd mozy on down there at 5:30 in the Morning and Jack would be having coffee working on yestedays photo's. He did a running slide show every night. We talked quite a bit. He's from Kentucky and when they say southern charm,... they mean Jack.


I'd like to hear more about the EXPO...so no more Toga talk in here... I just wanted to reply...

[Thomason]

Suff,

I'll have to do this in installments because it was an intense experience and I'm still sorting it out.

It began with Andy Beyer talking about "Supertrainers". (He had a big crowd, 350-400 people.) These are the guys who are winning 40% of their races or who claim a cheapy and have the horse winning a stakes race two weeks later. Some have ruined meets. (Shuman and Gill at Gulfstream last year might come to mind.) Andy showed several pp's to illustrate his point, which was that these guys are doing things that have never, ever been done before. Charlie Whittingham may have had one horse turn around like this in his lifetime. Some of these new supertrainers have one every week.

He said he wasn't accusing anybody of doing anything illegal, that he wasn't accusing anyone of using drugs, but some of it sure looked suspicious. Instead, in the future, he was simply going to assume that they had somehow acquired "magic" and when he was handicapping a race, he would be mindful that there was a horse in the race who was trained by someone with "magic" and he would handicap accordingly.

His presentation was very engaging, full of funny lines and somber points. He closed by saying that as a lover of the sport and a longtime player, it made him mad as hell, but when he was handicapping a race he had to deal with the reality in front of him.

I'll add that I hauled a first edition copy of "Picking Winners" all the way to Las Vegas. (The book is older than my grown daughter.) The next day, I caught him as he was rushing from one place to another (he does that a lot) and asked him to sign it. He could not have been more gracious. Whether you like or dislike his figs, his columns or his books, everyone has to agree that the man is a force of nature. Some of the DRF staffers told me that they had just celebrated his 60th birthday and that he is still full of energy and enthusiasm.

Andy also closed the expo with Len Friedman and Jerry Brown discussing Speed Figure Methodologies, if "discussing" is the right word. Bob Selvin did a fine job of describing that session, so there's no need for me to go there. But there was a lot of stuff in the middle and we'll save that for another day, if you're interested.

Michael Thomason

[Dan Montilion]

Thomason,

I have a tape of a previous Handicapping Expo. Gordon Jones was the moderator. When Gordon came to his into of Andy Beyer he said "if racing did not have Andy Beyer we would have to invent him" Thought that was a pretty damn good line.

Dan Montilion

[Tom]

Thomasson......more-more-more! <G>

Thanks for the update.
I met Andy once at Laurel's Sprots Book-he was a real nice guy.
Had a three foot high stack of Charts Weekly on his table, dog-eared and curled up, but he spent the day buried in them.

[TravisVOX]

Thomason...

Well said. You're right, a lot of people feel that Beyer is a wash-up, over-rated figure etc. Whether or not you believe his methods, he provides a great racing perspective that is full of humour and entertaining prose.

Thanks.

Travis

[Thomason]

Jim Quinn talked about grass races (no surprise there) and discussed his method for playing them. Most of us have read about his method before, especially if you have a copy of Figure Handicapping. It's all about class and late speed. He has a method for computing late pace numbers, which he ran through on Powerpoint and DRF has produced those screens at:

www.drf.com/expo/powerpoint

He's the consumate professional, fastidious and conscientious, and he gets right to the point without embellishment. As a published author, I marvel at his body of work. He is also the driving force behind the Handicapping Expo and he is genuinely a nice person. I talked with him several times at some length. He knows a hell of a lot more about handicapping than I ever will and yet he put me at ease and never once was there even a hint of condescension. He isn't the showman that Andy Beyer is, more of the college professor type, but I liked him very much.

Tom Brohamer is also very personable. I remember his brother Jack who played in the Majors for years but I never put the two together. Conceptually, he has a simple way of playing, but perhaps he just makes it seem simple because he understands so many aspects of handcapping so well. Tom Walters (Tomcat) says that Tom Brohamer is the finest handicapper he has ever know and that is high praise coming from someone as accomplished as Tomcat.

Brohamer makes his own Quirin-style pace and speed figures, just as he described in the second edition of Modern Pace Handicapping, and I think he plays predominantly in Southern California. Again, nothing new here, yet he is able to infer so much from those two simple numbers. With him, everything is up on the table for all to see and yet you marvel at his interpretations and the results.

Cary Fotias has created a hybrid set of pace and speed figures. Imagine a synthesis of the Sheets and the Sartin-Brohamer velocity-based figures. That's his numbers which he calls the Xtras.

By the way, Barry Meadow moderated the panel discussion with Fotias and Brohamer on pace figures. Fotias did not reveal how his numbers are calculated other than in general terms. But, among other things, he uses them to predict when a horse is about to produce a good race. Again, nothing revolutionary there. He has a concept called a "new pace top", where the horse runs basically the same final figure in two consecutive races, but the pace figure in the latter race is much faster, which portends an even better race today. Brohamer, of course, uses his Quirin-style numbers in much the same way. Fotias also uses his numbers to predict when a horse might successfully stretch out. But again Brohamer talks about that in his book which he relates to the Sartin concept of energy distribution.

Regarding speed figures, I'm of the opinion that the Indian is more important than the arrow-- the arrow being the figures and the Indian being the person who uses them. Still you must have good arrows and I'm not the person to judge who has the best. Fotias may have the best, but Brohamer's Quirin-style numbers are so easy to understand. But I enjoyed those portions of the discussion that dealt with how the figures should be interpreted and applied. Just wish I had taken better notes. That session was the afternoon of the second day and my brain was jello by then (much like it is now). Fortunately, DRF is reproducing the entire Expo on DVD. I just hope it's priced reasonably.

Michael Thomason

[Thomason]

This is a follow up to my post about Andy Beyer's presentation on "Supertrainers."

Andy suggested that the DRF should list a horse's vet on the pp's in addition to the owner, trainer and jockey. He said that might help a lot of people put the proverbial two and two together.

[TravisVOX]

Sounds like Andy was dropping these hints in a subtle way that the situation is out of control. Listing the vet would never happen, but his suggesting it to me sends this message: "Stop giving us garbage, we know it's out there."

[Turfday]

Hi Mike,

Sorry I didn't bump into you at the Expo. The concept of attaching a vet's name to a trainer's name...as helpful as it may sound...would never work and only lead to more confusion.

The bigger barns normally have a few different vets around that they work with. As example...when one goes on vacation, another fills in. When one is unavailable to do a procedure, another does it.

Not only that, under the rules of racing, the trainer is specifically responsible for the care and well being of the horse.

Was Beyer responding to a question when that was brought up or did he bring it up himself? If he brought it up himself, I'm sure it was a "tongue-in-cheek" remark.

[andicap]

Other than the opportunity to schmooze with fellow handicappers and the authors themselves (no small thing), it feels like the seminars themselves were a giant waste of time/money if you were already familar with the person's work. E.g, if you had already read "Blinkers Off" from Fotias.

[sjk]

I don't know that I heard anything that struck me as completely new. Even so, it got me thinking about some parts of my program that I haven't looked at in 6-8 years and I have spent the past few days testing some potential changes.

One thing that was striking was that everyone seemed to take the "man" side of the "man vs. computer" debate; that the best info is hand-crafted, one circuit at a time and not made wholesale by machine.

Even though I found things I did not agree with, I thought the presentations were well worth the time to attend.

[kenwoodallpromos]

I could not attend, but it sure sounds like there were enough urban legend wive's tales going around to assure me of another good year betting against them!!LOL! I guess Andy has still not heard asbout Shuman, Gill and the Myoptomys. Getting everyone to backfit the biases is good news for my capping!