NORTH AMERICAN UP

[pandy]

Very good race tomorrow night. My picks are at the link below and I should have a different analysis (same picks) on the USTA site later.


http://www.trotpicks.com/freepicks.htm

Harness Eye's online picks are at

www.drf.com/nacup

[pandy]

http://xwebapp.ustrotting.com/absolutenm/templates/articleTT.aspx?articleid=54027&zoneid=12

[cmp92]

Very good race tomorrow night. My picks are at the link below and I should have a different analysis (same picks) on the USTA site later.


http://www.trotpicks.com/freepicks.htm

Harness Eye's online picks are at

www.drf.com/nacup
I like your analysis. I'm likely going up to Mohawk tomorrow night, looking forward to a good time. Fool Me Once, Vegas Vacation, and Captaintreacherous are all equally capable to win this thing. It all comes down to the trip.

[pandy]

Thank you. Yes, trip could be the key.

[Race Promoter]

Thanks Pandy!

Vegas Vacation roars home in 1:48 flat

[pandy]

Nice race by the Captain. I thought that it was a bad drive on Vegas Vacation. Not that he would have won but he got boxed in late while coming back on when the paceslowed. You can't allow yourself to get boxed in from first over. Zeron should have tipped wide in the lane, which would have pushed Captain Treacherous out and would have given his horse a better chance. Vegas Vacation may have finished 2nd or third in this race with clearance.

This race shows again how difficult it is to rally from far back in these high class paces. No matter how fast the pace is, it seems that you cannot win from third or fourth over anymore because the flow struggles to keep up to the hot pace and the closers just have too much to do in the stretch.

[Sinner369]

I was not impressed with the drive by S Filion on Fool Me Once. He went the 3/4 mile in 1:20:2 and the Q3 in 26:2..........naturally the horse had nothing left in the lane.

In the elimination the horse paced a faster mile in 148:1 than tonight's 1:48:3.
But the third quarter was a more sensible 1:21:2 (which was the fastest Q3 of all the eliminations)..........to me the driver blew it......!!!

(If I sound like a sore loser it's because I am).

[Zapper]

No excuse for Zeron! yes horse was first up but watch his last 4 starts prior to this race he was first up and went right on by the leader.On Saturday once he 1/4 poled and didn't comfront the leader he was as good as done.Review the tape of the far turn Zeron couldn't get to the saddle pad of the horse who was in the pocket and once they rounded the last turn he was in the 3 path but no fire in the lane.I will agree that from the 7/8th pole to the wire the horse came back on but at best he was a 4th to 5th on that night.

[pandy]

These 3yo races should be very entertaining. Captain C. is the best but not unbeatable and I think that Vegas, Captain, and Fool are very close on talent. Of those three Captain got by far the best trip and the other two weren't beaten badly. And as I've noted, if Zeron doesn't get himself blocked from first over (how do you do that?) he only loses by a couple of lengths. Captain Courageous will be a short price next time out in Hempt or Big M Pace.

[Zapper]

If Filion doesn't blast out that third 1/4 he's a winner by open lengths. Filion looks over his shoulder twice and can see Zeron not making any headway on him so he took a shot kicked out the plugs, shook the lines in an attempt to steal it on the last turn.

[Zapper]

The next big test seems to be the Max Hemp.I wonder who else will make that trip to Pocono (Toscano,Burke,Takter,etc)

[LottaKash]

I was not impressed with the drive by S Filion on Fool Me Once. He went the 3/4 mile in 1:20:2 and the Q3 in 26:2..........naturally the horse had nothing left in the lane.

In the elimination the horse paced a faster mile in 148:1 than tonight's 1:48:3.
But the third quarter was a more sensible 1:21:2 (which was the fastest Q3 of all the eliminations)..........to me the driver blew it......!!!

(If I sound like a sore loser it's because I am).

Sinner, I guess it all goes back to the much clichéd term, that still stands the test of time:..."Pace makes the Race"...

Filion was on a mission that nite, but trouble is, once you get a horse cranked up to that high turn of speed, with every good horse nipping at your heels, trying to garner the winners share of a cool million, it is very hard to do a rate job at that point....

Hey the guy threw his hat in the ring and went for it....He said catch me if you can....And they did....But he went down swinging for sure..

Trouble is, and I have seen this time and again at this time of the year for the 3yos, it's a case of TMTS...Too much too soon so early in the season....It hurt Sweet Lou, and Hurrikane Kingcole last year, the TMTS syndrome that is...They were hurting horses for a good while after that...And every preceding year, there were usually season long casualties from the 3yo-TMTS syndrome...haha..

I am working on presenting an interesting tool, for all to see, that I have been developing for some years now....Many of you know it as the "PIPs" (Pace in Perspective)...The PIPs have evolved, and they are more of a tool than a way to handicap....And, once I post the (soon) the particulars and the how to's of the PIPs, I will rehash this race and point out the danger in the PIP of this race....Look for them soon...:jump:

I think most will find the current state of the PIPs, to be very interesting, if not highly informative and useful for some of you....

[Ray2000]

Really interested in this "PIP" Johnny


Please don't tease.... :)

[LottaKash]

Really interested in this "PIP" Johnny


Please don't tease.... :)

Sure Pop this time Ray....I promise....

The old PIPs were very good, but only in season....The New PIPs are useful the whole year thru....In fact at certain junctures in a season ,they can be "VERY" useful...

[Sinner369]

"I am working on presenting an interesting tool, for all to see, that I have been developing for some years now....Many of you know it as the "PIPs" (Pace in Perspective)...The PIPs have evolved, and they are more of a tool than a way to handicap....And, once I post the (soon) the particulars and the how to's of the PIPs, I will rehash this race and point out the danger in the PIP of this race....Look for them soon..."


You mentioned PIP before...........Have to concur with Ray2000.........would be neat to learn something new about handicapping on harness racing......Do it Cash.......!!!

[mrroyboy]

Good John
Can't wait to see them.

[LottaKash]

Good John
Can't wait to see them.

Ok Roy, it will be game on..You wil like it..

[Sinner369]

If Filion doesn't blast out that third 1/4 he's a winner by open lengths. Filion looks over his shoulder twice and can see Zeron not making any headway on him so he took a shot kicked out the plugs, shook the lines in an attempt to steal it on the last turn.

Despite the fast 3/4M the horse only lost by 2 lengths and only gave away a few feet from the wire. To me the horse should be a good bet next time out!
Against the same company!

But on a happy side......the fan who won the Meadowlands promotion and owned a share of the winning purse on Captain T should be in dream land.