Monday 2/23

[Valuist]

GP 9th-7 Nakanya Hun
beat Mdns by 6 at 7f in last. The runner up came back to win a fast Mdn race last Friday. This one should handle the rise and w/Pletcher having a contender, the 7 may not be favored.

FG 6th- 7 Either Orr
hoping speed is good today at the FG. This horse is very fast out of the gate and should clear these horses.

FG 7th- 2 Gildmore
another who looks to get a clear lead. Coming off a horrible effort but the last time he came off a horrible race, he won. He also won his last at this level.

[kingfin66]

I don't agree that either of the FG horses you mentioned should clear the field. In the case of Either Orr (6th), it needs the lead to be successful, but may not get it. The last race did, however, give an indication that it may be coming onto form. I see this as more of a "late" type of race, with a pressing type horse winning. This one's a pass for me.

You may be able to get a nice price on Gildmore off that last race. I think the favorite will be tough in this race, but Gildmore does show some ability in the pp's. The last race was also on an offtrack. Good luck with your bets!

The race I'm looking at for FG is the 5th. It shows a pressured pace scenario. I like the 8 horse, Storm Saint. It seems to like FG based on performance since December. The pace should help. I also like the jump up in class coming off the win. It is a play for me at 6/1 or higher.

If you're looking for a horse that can clear the field, a nice Lone F type is #7 - Rail Rose, in the 9th.

[Valuist]

I'll be quite surprised if Either Orr isn't on the lead. True, he could break bad but you could say that about any of them. Of the other horses, I'd give Platinum Edition the best shot at leading w/the dropdown. I don't respect Bully Bully, who found himself on the lead in a 5 horse field last time out. Either Orr faced some very tough fields in Ky and has a major back class edge on this bunch. Gildmore doesn't appear to have any company to fight for the lead. Yes, he could break down, based on that last race. But the rider who rode last time (C. Bourque) has been known to quit trying when it becomes clear he isn't going to win. Rail Rose is interesting; Corale Richards has an uncoupled entry in there and I'd like to see the odds. I'm not looking for what people or Equibase perceive as a lone front runner; I'm going by how I perceive the race will develop. One thing about the FG, if you don't get a clear lead, you better take back because the 3-wide up close stalking trip that wins at other tracks is death at the Fair Grounds.

[kingfin66]

Originally posted by Valuist
One thing about the FG, if you don't get a clear lead, you better take back because the 3-wide up close stalking trip that wins at other tracks is death at the Fair Grounds.

I'm going to make a mental note of that for future reference. I hadn't really noticed that before, but will be watching for it. Good luck today.

[Valuist]

The FG shape is fairly close to Sportsman's (not the old bullring, but the post 1992 Spt). Very long straightaways and fairly sharp turns. Kind of like a stretched out rubber band, or at least a paper clip. You see horses make big moves 3-4 wide on the turn, then flatten out at around the 1/8th pole. You often see pacesetters come back after being headed in the stretch. Horses lose a lot of momentum going wide on the far turn at the FG. There's a horse running today in the 3rd (Fuhr Real) that looks on paper to have had one of those trips. I'd like to bet her today but drawn outside, I'm afraid she'll get that wide, pressing trip again.

[BillW]

Originally posted by Valuist
Kind of like a stretched out rubber band, or at least a paper clip.



The Fair Grounds stretch is a full half furlong longer than a normal symetric 1 mile track
The quarter pole is at the head of the stretch.

Bill

[kingfin66]

I believe it is the longest stretch in N.American racing.

[kingfin66]

The 2 and the 8 have scratched. The track (FG) is sloppy. The race now shapes up as a Speed of Speed with Either Orr the SOS. He could easily lose if he gets into too much of a duel, but if clears, he goes. I'm still staying out of this race, but you may get a good price on this one. Will be cheering for your hoss.

[kingfin66]

Can't play Rail Rose here. She doesn't like the slop.

[Valuist]

The 2 scratches may poison some of the value, but I'm gonna stay w/it. I think he needs to clear, or he's in trouble. He's got some seconditis, but one of the other contenders is 1 for 30!

I'm less sure what to make of Gildmore, who is 2 for 3 on off tracks but the top Beyer was a 70; I would have to think those races were probably as a 2YO. His recent race on a good track was horrible. But the price should be ok and I think he'll have the lead turning for home. If he gets run down, he's a rat.

[kingfin66]

They ran 6-5-7 with 6 winning by a wide margin. Another horse went out early and 7 had to play some catch up. The 7 got the lead but couldn't sustain.

I jumped into the race and played the 5 to win, and keyboxed the exacta 5/6-7 and 6-7/5. Also played a 5-6-7 tri box, 5/6-7/6-7 tri and 5-6/7/5-6. It would have been nice if the 5 would have won, but I'll take the small profit given that I shouldn't have played the race at all.

[Valuist]

Didn't get to see it. The fact that the 7 came from off the pace to get the lead before tiring surprises me. But that kind of move is death down there. Maybe the 7 needs to get back to Kentucky where he can get those "special vitamins".