These trainers are "MONEY' with firsters

[Turfday]

Just was looking at my database and thought I would share some names of trainers who have been "money" when shooting with their first-time starters. Flat-bet profits with no handicapping?

My search criteria was "Feb. 14, 2001 to Feb. 14, 2004" and a minimum of sending out 30 first-time starters in that three-year time period. I didn't include the possible breakage in the average price winner. I'm particularly impressed with Hassenpflug's amazing consistency and Tiller and Anderson's stats from big sample sizes.

Bruce Anderson 9/35 (26%), Average Price Winner $14.00

Chad Hassenpflug 15/38 (39%), APW $12.00

Norm McKnight 9/45 (20%), APW $20.00

Patrick Biancone 10/36 (28%), APW $11.00

Paul Aguirre 15/45 (33%), APW $11.00

Robert Tiller 21/70 (30%), APW $11.00

Bruce Anderson 9/35 (26%), APW $14.00

Hugh Robertson 16/83 (19%), APW $16.00

Around the entire country, there are a number of other good, consistent trainers with firsters such as Allen Iwinski, Patrick Byrne, David Carroll ...just to name a few.

[Larry Hamilton]

Flip the coin bob, here are some who dont do it very well:
[pre]
MACKENZIE JOHN P. 39 0 0.00
BERNIS GLYNN 32 0 0.00
MITCHELL MIKE R. 30 0 0.00
MILLIGAN ALLEN 42 0 0.00
BRADLEY WILLIAM 39 0 0.00
MCCOY JAMES B. 36 0 0.00
TAMMARO III JOHN J. 34 0 0.00
AQUILINO JOSEPH 33 0 0.00
HOFMANS DAVID E. 35 0 0.00
HAYNES RODNEY 39 0 0.00
GALLAGHER PATRICK 31 0 0.00
NAFZGER CARL A. 59 1 6.60
MCKEE JOHN D. 53 1 10.60
BONIFACE KEVIN C. 47 1 6.80
JACKSON JAMES R. 45 1 6.20
ROBERTS STANLEY W. 44 1 17.80
POSADA LAURA 43 1 44.40
SCIACCA GARY 41 1 45.60
O'BANNON CYNTHIA E. 41 1 24.20
DUTTON JERRY 38 1 10.20
HOLT LARRY W. 38 1 13.20
GARCIA RODOLFO 37 1 19.40
GORHAM ROBERT M. 37 1 9.40
MOGER JR. ED 72 2 35.40

[Turfday]

Hi Larry,

I recognize your name from National Turf years back. I'm using the turfday.com database. As I mentioned in my initial post, it goes back three years simply to get larger sample sizes.

No matter, it's all great info and especially comforting to handicappers when any one of these trainers has a firster
entered. Here's what I have on the names on your list:

MACKENZIE, JOHN 0/55
BERNIS, GLYNN 1/43
MITCHELL, MIKE 1/41
MILLIGAN, ALLEN 1/59
BRADLEY, WILLIAM 0/54
MCCOY, JAMES B. 0/54
TAMMARO III, JOHN J. 3/59
AQUILINO, JOSEPH 5/62
HOFMANS, DAVID E. 4/64
HAYNES, RODNEY 0/56
GALLAGHER, PATRICK 3/65
NAFZGER, CARL A. 7/98
MCKEE, JOHN D. 3/83
BONIFACE, KEVIN C. 4/73
JACKSON, JAMES R. 2/69
ROBERTS, STANLEY W. 1/67
POSADA, LAURA 2/60
SCIACCA, GARY 2/68
O'BANNON, CYNTHIA 1/57
DUTTON, JERRY 8/77
HOLT, LARRY W. 5/56
GARCIA, RODOLFO 2/56
GORHAM, ROBERT M. 2/49
MOGER JR., ED 6/123

I have a couple of others to add but there are lots more:

CANDLIN, JOHN 0/38 (none have hit the board)
VAN BERG, JACK 0/44 (Hall of Famer !)
GLATT, MARK 1/39 (good journeyman So. Calif. trainer)

[kenwoodallpromos]

Hofmans name surprises me!

[Larry Hamilton]

What these several posts suggest is that trainers have SOME specific talents that we can measure. I suspect that Bob has a million of these spot plays. Thanks for posting it.

[andicap]

Do you measure past 12 months vs past 4 years to see how they have been doing lately.

what I remember about those BRIS trainer stats I used to get in those bound books was how much they changed from year to year. A trainer could have a great profit one year in a category and a huge loss the next. That was always the problem.

[Turfday]

My turfday.com database has a search feature for "last 365 days" from the most recent date the database has been updated (once a week) and last "1095 days (years)" from same.

So yes, comparing the last 365 days to last 1095 days is relatively easy.

I also created the formula "Betting Value Averages" that is based on a "rolling average" so that all the stats are taken into account, but "what have you done for me lately" to identify current trends, is given added value. The formula is much like a baseball player's slugging average.

As an example, based on "last 365 days"...what happened in days 335-365 doesn't count nearly as much as what happened in most recent days 1-30 from the date of last update.

[ranchwest]

Does turfday.com spit out these messages to post or do you have to do those yourself?

[Turfday]

I can search for just about anything I want in the following categories: trainers, jockeys, trainer-jockey combinations, sires and post positions.

The site features a "top" and "bottom" list of the best and worst in each category. Depending on the days you request to search for (365, 1095, or all-time since Jan. 1, 1995) and the sample size you enter, results naturally will vary.

For posting here at PA, pluck out the information from the search and post it here.

[mikekk]

The surprise for me is Jerry Dutton. When I was betting SoCal regularly (4 or 5 years ago), he was the king of the 2-year old dash races. His horses would then basically disappear from the map (probably too much too early).

I guess it's extremely contingent on the type of stock a trainer ends up with.

Mikekk

[Turfday]

Some of these guys are getting old...perhaps they don't have the "eye of the tiger" anymore and/or their training methods have changed. But also, could be indicative of the kind of stock they are now getting as opposed to then.

You were absolutely right about Dutton. Times have changed as you can see.