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Shelby
06-09-2013, 03:27 PM
Can someone explain why they paid to multiple horses in races #7 and #10. I'm just curious.



Pick 6--6 of 6
2-1/3-2-7-1/2/10-12

ManU918
06-09-2013, 03:32 PM
Can someone explain why they paid to multiple horses in races #7 and #10. I'm just curious.



Pick 6--6 of 6
2-1/3-2-7-1/2/10-12

Because Reload was scratched in the 7th and Quick Casablanca and Speaking of Which were scratched in the 10th.

Stillriledup
06-09-2013, 03:34 PM
Because Reload was scratched in the 7th and Quick Casablanca and Speaking of Which were scratched in the 10th.

But Reload ran the day before, how is it possible that he wasnt out of the system before early bird betting opened and someone was able to bet on Reload and got onto the favorite? Unless, they just list his number there and nobody actually bet on him and was transferred.

Stillriledup
06-09-2013, 03:36 PM
The Pick 6 at Belmont the day before paid 3200 (WITH carryover) and the parlay was over 8k. Little fishy result there...of course, nobody will investigate that payout, its just business as usual at the tracks across america.

Shelby
06-09-2013, 03:43 PM
OH ok, I see now :) I forgot about the scratches. Thank you!

But, yeah, Reload wasn't a late scratch.....hmmmm......

Stillriledup
06-09-2013, 03:49 PM
OH ok, I see now :) I forgot about the scratches. Thank you!

But, yeah, Reload wasn't a late scratch.....hmmmm......

I think he's just listed for administrative purposes and not necessarily because someone bet on him and got transferred to the favorite. He was in the body of the race on the program, so, in the chart, his number will be listed even though nobody actually was able to bet on him (i think).

Shelby
06-09-2013, 03:51 PM
I think he's just listed for administrative purposes and not necessarily because someone bet on him and got transferred to the favorite. He was in the body of the race on the program, so, in the chart, his number will be listed even though nobody actually was able to bet on him (i think).


That makes sense. Thank you :)

the little guy
06-09-2013, 03:55 PM
But Reload ran the day before, how is it possible that he wasnt out of the system before early bird betting opened and someone was able to bet on Reload and got onto the favorite? Unless, they just list his number there and nobody actually bet on him and was transferred.

It's a computer system, and it will always display the results that way. Come on, surely this is obvious stuff.

the little guy
06-09-2013, 03:59 PM
The Pick 6 at Belmont the day before paid 3200 (WITH carryover) and the parlay was over 8k. Little fishy result there...of course, nobody will investigate that payout, its just business as usual at the tracks across america.


Because the winner of the 6th race was likely closer to 5:1, not 12:1, in the Pick-6. There is no way that Natalie Victoria was even close to 8:5 in the Pick-6, and her odds skewed the win prices. Look at the exacta in the 6th. It was way low based on the win odds as well...but more than fair value based on the "real" odds.

PaceAdvantage
06-09-2013, 04:01 PM
The Pick 6 at Belmont the day before paid 3200 (WITH carryover) and the parlay was over 8k. Little fishy result there...of course, nobody will investigate that payout, its just business as usual at the tracks across america.On a related note, what the heck does this have to do with THIS thread?

ManU918
06-09-2013, 04:17 PM
On a related note, what the heck does this have to do with THIS thread?

LOL I was thinking the same thing.

Stillriledup
06-09-2013, 04:27 PM
Because the winner of the 6th race was likely closer to 5:1, not 12:1, in the Pick-6. There is no way that Natalie Victoria was even close to 8:5 in the Pick-6, and her odds skewed the win prices. Look at the exacta in the 6th. It was way low based on the win odds as well...but more than fair value based on the "real" odds.

That's all well and good, but if that's true, why was the Birdrun probable 15,000 when he went off at the exact same odds as the winner? If Birdrun wins, its the same parlay, yet the bet pays 15k and not 3.

Bennie
06-09-2013, 04:31 PM
I believe they paid for "scratches" because you could pre-bet the entire card on Friday and people used these horses and the favorites won those races

the little guy
06-09-2013, 04:32 PM
That's all well and good, but if that's true, why was the Birdrun probable 15,000 when he went off at the exact same odds as the winner? If Birdrun wins, its the same parlay, yet the bet pays 15k and not 3.


Thanks for reminding me. Obviously the Brooklyn winner, the BC Marathon winner and 5:2 ML favorite, was much shorter than $17 in the Pick-6. Thanks for giving the proof of that.

Surely you didn't think Birdrun was the same price in the Pick-6 as the winner?

Stillriledup
06-09-2013, 04:34 PM
Thanks for reminding me. Obviously the Brooklyn winner, the BC Marathon winner and 5:2 ML favorite, was much shorter than $17 in the Pick-6. Thanks for giving the proof of that.

Surely you didn't think Birdrun was the same price in the Pick-6 as the winner?

They were the same price on the win board, so, the public thought they had the same exact chance. What does the morning line have to do with anything? Are you suggesting people invest thousands of dollars into the pick 6 and actually make their selections based on ML odds?

PaceAdvantage
06-09-2013, 04:38 PM
Are you suggesting people invest thousands of dollars into the pick 6 and actually make their selections based on ML odds?Yes, I'm sure that's exactly what he's stating... :rolleyes:

How about this...how about he's suggesting the resultant win price was the aberration, not the Pick 6 payoff. While if I'm reading you right, you seem to be stating the exact opposite.

Stillriledup
06-09-2013, 04:41 PM
Yes, I'm sure that's exactly what he's stating... :rolleyes:

How about this...how about he's suggesting the resultant win price was the aberration, not the Pick 6 payoff. While if I'm reading you right, you seem to be stating the exact opposite.

Win prices are a more accurate representation since handicappers get to 'handicap longer', they have more time to adjust their analysis as the day wears on. Why would the public be 'less good' with more time to handicap, time to see warmups, time to see how the track was playing?

PaceAdvantage
06-09-2013, 04:45 PM
Win prices are a more accurate representation since handicappers get to 'handicap longer', they have more time to adjust their analysis as the day wears on. Why would the public be 'less good' with more time to handicap, time to see warmups, time to see how the track was playing?I would argue that the Pick 6 has a higher concentration of "professional" money than does the Win pool...that could go a long way towards countering your argument.

Your argument also assumes that the items you list are actually helpful at formulating a more accurate assessment of a race (more time handicapping, visual inspection of the horse pre-race, implied track bias, etc.) Perhaps those items aren't as influential as you might think. And they certainly don't carry the same weight in every single race.

the little guy
06-09-2013, 04:49 PM
Pick-6s are funny. They can have some very interesting odds distributions.

I'm not trying to make an argument. I like Stillriledup. I honestly think this stuff is pretty logical. Just think about it for a little while.

Stillriledup
06-09-2013, 04:55 PM
I would argue that the Pick 6 has a higher concentration of "professional" money than does the Win pool...that could go a long way towards countering your argument.

Your argument also assumes that the items you list are actually helpful at formulating a more accurate assessment of a race (more time handicapping, visual inspection of the horse pre-race, implied track bias, etc.) Perhaps those items aren't as influential as you might think. And they certainly don't carry the same weight in every single race.

Its hypothetically possible there are more 'pros' in the pick 6, but we don't really know who's betting in any pool, its just an assumption with nothing really to back it up. The pick 6 is a 'lottery' type of bet, can't we also say there are 'bingo players' who are betting into those pools?

Its tough to handicap the night before when you know its going to rain because you dont know the scratches until the next day. Sloppy tracks quite often result in pick 6 payouts that are larger than the parlay by more of a margin that the average 'bump' you get on a fast track in my experience.

At any rate, whatever the case may be, the pick 6 paid 3200 and could have paid anywhere between 8k and 15k and been a 'fair' price. Its obviously a low price. The pick 4 paid 500 dollars for 2 bucks and that did NOT include a 26 dollar winner.

Its just a bad price, if you hit this pick 6, you had to be hoping for more money, especially since the 1 horse's probable was 5 times that of the winner even though both horses went off at 7-1.

Its not a bad thing to look at a price and say "hmmm, that seems low", sometimes a bet like that gets crushed, but wouldnt you love to know if someone had a 20 dollar pick 6 part wheel singling the horse in leg 2? I know i would.

Stillriledup
06-09-2013, 04:58 PM
Pick-6s are funny. They can have some very interesting odds distributions.

I'm not trying to make an argument. I like Stillriledup. I honestly think this stuff is pretty logical. Just think about it for a little while.

Thanks, i like you too. I do know what you're saying that sometimes you get an odd payout. I think i would have been more accepting of this pick 6 if birdrun's probable wasnt paying 15k and he was also one of the 3k to 4k payouts. To me, that would have suggested that 'naturally' this was just an easier pick 6 to hit.

Seemed to me, like there was a 'big ticket' that might have hit this multiple times and the ticket went '6 deep' in the last leg tossing out the 1 and 7.

the little guy
06-09-2013, 05:00 PM
I tried.

Stillriledup
06-09-2013, 05:04 PM
I tried.

Thanks for trying on your day off. Glad Belmont has 3 days off, gives me time to "shore up' my notes for the last few days, gives me one more day to get stuff done without feeling rushed before Wednesday's races.

Enjoy your Sunday Andy.