Mr. Trifecta's Running Aces Picks 6/8/13

[precisionk]

Good luck!


R1: 5,6,4,9

R2: 7,6,5,1

R3: 6,2,5,4

R4: 2,5,7,3 Mr. Trifecta's Longshot of the Night! $.50 Pick-6: 2,5,7 w 3,6,7 w 8 w 1 w 4,5,6 - $40.50

R5: 6,3,7,5

R6: 8,4,6,7 Mr. Trifecta's Pick of the Night!

R7: 1,7,6,5

R8: 5,4,6,8

R9: 2,4,8,6

[baconswitchfarm]

I bet the first race. The horse was paying 40 going to the gate. He paid 24. Exacta paid 30. And guys don't understand why you can't give out info.

[baconswitchfarm]

Luckily I hit the double and got back 40% of the parlay price. Nice game.

[precisionk]

Why yes, I did just hit this! Not too shabby for $2.40!


R6: 7,4,8,6 $.10 Superfecta box 8,4,6,7......$113.09!!!!

[precisionk]

Results:


R1: 6,5,1 Place $2.60....$2.20 $1 Exacta box 5,6,4......$15.20

R2: Out

R3: 6,2,5,4 Win $2.80....$2.60....$2.10 $1 COLD Exacta box 6,2,5......$6.60 $1 COLD Trifecta box 6,2,5......$28.70 $.10 COLD Superfecta box 6,2,5,4......$6.66

R4: Out

R5: 3,6,1 Place $3.80....$2.60 $1 Exacta box 6,3,7......$5.80

R6: 7,4,8,6 $.10 Superfecta box 8,4,6,7......$113.09

R7: Top choice scratched, 2nd choice 7,5,3 Win $4.00....$2.80....$2.20 No Trifeca/superfecta due to scratch

R8: 5,8,4 Win $5.20....$4.00....$3.20

R9: Out


All Races: Win Rate 33%, Board Hit 56%, Wagered $135.20, Returned $188.05, ROI 39%

[traynor]

Results:


R1: 6,5,1 Place $2.60....$2.20 $1 Exacta box 5,6,4......$15.20

R2: Out

R3: 6,2,5,4 Win $2.80....$2.60....$2.10 $1 COLD Exacta box 6,2,5......$6.60 $1 COLD Trifecta box 6,2,5......$28.70 $.10 COLD Superfecta box 6,2,5,4......$6.66

R4: Out

R5: 3,6,1 Place $3.80....$2.60 $1 Exacta box 6,3,7......$5.80

R6: 7,4,8,6 $.10 Superfecta box 8,4,6,7......$113.09

R7: Top choice scratched, 2nd choice 7,5,3 Win $4.00....$2.80....$2.20 No Trifeca/superfecta due to scratch

R8: 5,8,4 Win $5.20....$4.00....$3.20

R9: Out


All Races: Win Rate 33%, Board Hit 56%, Wagered $135.20, Returned $188.05, ROI 39%

Interesting. Will you be including the superfecta as a standard wager in your selections?

[precisionk]

Interesting. Will you be including the superfecta as a standard wager in your selections?


If you check out my website, I do superfecta's for Running Aces only. Part of my picks I give them. :)

[traynor]

If you check out my website, I do superfecta's for Running Aces only. Part of my picks I give them. :)

When I lived in Miami, I learned a LOT about wagering from greyhound handicappers. One of the most interesting things was that superfectas are almost an art form. Everyone believes that if they box the top four (or five) entries, they will cash a lot of tickets. That may be true to some degree, but it will be primarily smallish payoffs.

For superfectas, the third and fourth positions are where the money is. That is, isolating a race to the top two for win and place, with all, all for third and fourth. I have no idea what requirements there are for the $0.10 superfecta, but there has been extensive research to support the above statement for both harness races and thoroughbred races.

When Pompano began offering trifectas, the greyhound bettors cleaned the pools routinely using the same technique. All the horsey folk were boxing the front end, while the greyhound bettors knew enough to find the winner with all, all, or find the winner with two or three for place, all. It was a great time to be in Miami. (As if there were ever a bad time to be in Miami.) The horsey folks were nailing all the chump change trifectas, and the greyhound folks were nailing all the big ones.

[precisionk]

When I lived in Miami, I learned a LOT about wagering from greyhound handicappers. One of the most interesting things was that superfectas are almost an art form. Everyone believes that if they box the top four (or five) entries, they will cash a lot of tickets. That may be true to some degree, but it will be primarily smallish payoffs.

For superfectas, the third and fourth positions are where the money is. That is, isolating a race to the top two for win and place, with all, all for third and fourth. I have no idea what requirements there are for the $0.10 superfecta, but there has been extensive research to support the above statement for both harness races and thoroughbred races.

When Pompano began offering trifectas, the greyhound bettors cleaned the pools routinely using the same technique. All the horsey folk were boxing the front end, while the greyhound bettors knew enough to find the winner with all, all, or find the winner with two or three for place, all. It was a great time to be in Miami. (As if there were ever a bad time to be in Miami.) The horsey folks were nailing all the chump change trifectas, and the greyhound folks were nailing all the big ones.


Definitely agree that the money to be made is for those horses that should finish 3rd or 4th to pickup the top two spots. Reason why that super paid $110 for a dime. $.10 supers are so cheap that boxing is a no brainer, though if you are looking to save money over the long run, singling would be best.

[traynor]

Definitely agree that the money to be made is for those horses that should finish 3rd or 4th to pickup the top two spots. Reason why that super paid $110 for a dime. $.10 supers are so cheap that boxing is a no brainer, though if you are looking to save money over the long run, singling would be best.

I think you misunderstand what I said. It is the tossouts finishing third and fourth that pump up the payoffs. It is because so many choose to box that this is so. Boxing is basically a technique for those with no idea which entries will win and place, and hope for miracles. It is not "saving money" as much as it is a technique to catch bigger payoffs.

[precisionk]

I think you misunderstand what I said. It is the tossouts finishing third and fourth that pump up the payoffs. It is because so many choose to box that this is so. Boxing is basically a technique for those with no idea which entries will win and place, and hope for miracles. It is not "saving money" as much as it is a technique to catch bigger payoffs.

Catching bigger payoffs is always what its about. With the $.10 it makes it says to put into a box. Now say if I were to do a $1 superfecta, that completely changes how I make that ticket, cause ticket costing much more.

[traynor]

Catching bigger payoffs is always what its about. With the $.10 it makes it says to put into a box. Now say if I were to do a $1 superfecta, that completely changes how I make that ticket, cause ticket costing much more.

Got it. Thanks. My apologies for seeming ignorant, but I am not familiar with the $.10 wager. The only superfectas I have ever bet were (and are) part wheels, for the reasons mentioned previousy.

[precisionk]

Got it. Thanks. My apologies for seeming ignorant, but I am not familiar with the $.10 wager. The only superfectas I have ever bet were (and are) part wheels, for the reasons mentioned previousy.


No problem. If the bet was anything but $.10, I would wheel all day, everyday unless you like to spend a huge amount on one ticket.