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View Full Version : Human error and horses who are ready to win today.


Stillriledup
06-07-2013, 02:16 PM
I've had multiple instances in the last few days where jocks got boxed in for the entire stretch run in 5 horse fields and cost me money even though i had the right horse. This got me thinking about jocks and trainers and how mistakes by jocks and trainers is a huge factor in whether or not you win with a horse who's ready to win today.

I wish i had half the money back i've lost recently at Belmont on horses who looked great to me on tape and the connections for some unknown reason, just put the horse on the turf in their next start even though the horse wasnt a turf horse and had no real success on turf either. I believe in my video notes and comments and i feel its something that i have to learn that no matter how good my notes are, i can't overcome 'poor entering'. If my horse isnt perfectly spotted on the correct surface, with the proper jock, in the proper class in a race that fits that horse's style from a race flow standpoint and also coming back in the proper time frame, its likely that this bad entering will cost a horse who is ready to win today, a chance to actually win today.

I dont just blindly bet my 'good comments' i try fairly hard to make sure all the other ducks are in a row, but it seems that too many horses are being put in losing spots by their connections and its hard, because you're seeing a horse you've been 'waiting for' and its put in a losing spot and you have a decision to make. Ive been making the decision recently to just bet my horse and try to 'overcome' the idea that the horse isnt in the race and situation i want, and that has been the wrong approach for me personally in the last little while.

Many times, the connections are just taking the spot they can get, whichever race "comes up" is the one they're taking, its not practical to wait forever for the exact perfect scenario, i get that part of the game, its just hard to watch a horse who is 'set up to win' put in a losing spot because the connections didnt want to wait for something better or didnt know that they should be waiting for something better. I have to learn to be able to watch a horse i have a 'good note' on win without my money. Its tough to watch that happen, but its tougher to lose a bet because i'm 'forcing' it and trying to get a horse to win who isnt entered in the ideal spot.

The "entering" part of things is something we can just take for granted if we arent diligent in demanding that the horse we are 'waiting for' is actually put into the proper spot at the proper time.

maddog42
06-07-2013, 02:37 PM
I've had multiple instances in the last few days where jocks got boxed in for the entire stretch run in 5 horse fields and cost me money even though i had the right horse.


This may have actually happened, but in 5 horse fields,it is very rare. That is a streak of bad luck. It will turn around.

Ocala Mike
06-07-2013, 02:42 PM
Not as rare as you would think. Take a look at ISN'TLOVEJUSTGRAND in Belmont's 7th yesterday. Changed lines like a nutso driver on the LIE.

Stillriledup
06-07-2013, 02:44 PM
This may have actually happened, but in 5 horse fields,it is very rare. That is a streak of bad luck. It will turn around.

Thanks, i'm hoping you're right.
(for those who care, the 2 races i was talking about were at Belmont, one was on June 5th in the 5th race and the other one was June 6th in the 7th)

Stillriledup
06-07-2013, 02:45 PM
Not as rare as you would think. Take a look at ISN'TLOVEJUSTGRAND in Belmont's 7th yesterday. Changed lines like a nutso driver on the LIE.

lol that's the horse i was talking about! Had a big exa box 1-2 and tossed the overbet Jeter.

chadk66
06-08-2013, 11:33 PM
the human factor will always be a hurdle that you can never overcome.

jasperson
06-09-2013, 06:22 AM
This may have actually happened, but in 5 horse fields,it is very rare. That is a streak of bad luck. It will turn around.
I had a case where my horse was checked in a 2 horse race. My horse and favorite were 5 lengths behind the field but my jockey got my horse checked by the favorite.

Robert Goren
06-09-2013, 10:31 AM
My experience with checked horses in their next start is not good. I bet one that been checked 3 times that I had been waiting for 3 weeks. He had outside post on June 5th and back in for same claiming price at very good odds. I figured he was a go. I couldn't been more wrong. He stayed in the clear until the stretch run then move inside and closed a couple lengths. A sure sign that the jockey knows he is beat. I felt I like I had been sucker in again. I keep telling myself that checked horses are not a good bet, but every 6 months or so I get sucked in.
Now a front runner that leaves the gate slow is a different story, but they usually get bet off the board.

DJofSD
06-09-2013, 11:17 AM
This may have actually happened, but in 5 horse fields,it is very rare. That is a streak of bad luck. It will turn around.
It might very well be a rare occasion, however, I recall one race with a 5 horse field that KDes lost on a very short priced horse because he was boxed in down the entire backstretch and when they finally got into the stretch, his mount was finished. As I recall, it was a Bobby Frankel horse, and, he broke a pair a binoculars during the race because he was so upset with the ride.

Valuist
06-09-2013, 11:26 AM
I've had multiple instances in the last few days where jocks got boxed in for the entire stretch run in 5 horse fields and cost me money even though i had the right horse. This got me thinking about jocks and trainers and how mistakes by jocks and trainers is a huge factor in whether or not you win with a horse who's ready to win today.

I wish i had half the money back i've lost recently at Belmont on horses who looked great to me on tape and the connections for some unknown reason, just put the horse on the turf in their next start even though the horse wasnt a turf horse and had no real success on turf either. I believe in my video notes and comments and i feel its something that i have to learn that no matter how good my notes are, i can't overcome 'poor entering'. If my horse isnt perfectly spotted on the correct surface, with the proper jock, in the proper class in a race that fits that horse's style from a race flow standpoint and also coming back in the proper time frame, its likely that this bad entering will cost a horse who is ready to win today, a chance to actually win today.

I dont just blindly bet my 'good comments' i try fairly hard to make sure all the other ducks are in a row, but it seems that too many horses are being put in losing spots by their connections and its hard, because you're seeing a horse you've been 'waiting for' and its put in a losing spot and you have a decision to make. Ive been making the decision recently to just bet my horse and try to 'overcome' the idea that the horse isnt in the race and situation i want, and that has been the wrong approach for me personally in the last little while.

Many times, the connections are just taking the spot they can get, whichever race "comes up" is the one they're taking, its not practical to wait forever for the exact perfect scenario, i get that part of the game, its just hard to watch a horse who is 'set up to win' put in a losing spot because the connections didnt want to wait for something better or didnt know that they should be waiting for something better. I have to learn to be able to watch a horse i have a 'good note' on win without my money. Its tough to watch that happen, but its tougher to lose a bet because i'm 'forcing' it and trying to get a horse to win who isnt entered in the ideal spot.

The "entering" part of things is something we can just take for granted if we arent diligent in demanding that the horse we are 'waiting for' is actually put into the proper spot at the proper time.

They are actually doing you a favor IF you are patient. Those horses that you've been waiting for to run back that have been entered on the wrong surface or wrong distance are still eligible to be bet back but now they've had their form darkened a bit so you get an even better price next time.

Stillriledup
06-09-2013, 05:06 PM
They are actually doing you a favor IF you are patient. Those horses that you've been waiting for to run back that have been entered on the wrong surface or wrong distance are still eligible to be bet back but now they've had their form darkened a bit so you get an even better price next time.

I do take that into consideration. I've found that sometimes horses get 'over the top' when they are misplaced more than 1 time before coming back to reality. Sometimes it works out for the better, i just have to be more conciously aware of not just betting 'good comments' without really holding the connections to a higher standard of where they enter their horse.

MJC922
06-09-2013, 07:05 PM
Years ago when I was able to play on a daily basis my approach was similar to what it sounds like you might be doing now, trip handicapping and building a list of horses to watch. If you're astute it does work, however IMO it pays off with more frequency at lower level tracks with cheaper horses. These tracks tend to be without turf courses, just bread and butter dirt mile ovals with most of the card being made up of claiming and maiden claimers who meet in the same nw since forever conditions every week or two. By contrast major league racing like Saratoga where horses are shipping from the four corners of the earth, switching surfaces constantly, full fields of twelve where most of them have never been on the same course with one another, it's tough to be working with just a horses to watch list as a cornerstone of the approach.... yeah it's still racing but a very different game where you have to sit on your hands a lot more to protect your bankroll or suffer the death of a thousand cuts. I feel in order to maximize playability on the horses as they 'run back' you might want to increase focus on the minor league tracks, provided of course the mad bombers aren't operating there. :)

Stillriledup
06-09-2013, 07:47 PM
Years ago when I was able to play on a daily basis my approach was similar to what it sounds like you might be doing now, trip handicapping and building a list of horses to watch. If you're astute it does work, however IMO it pays off with more frequency at lower level tracks with cheaper horses. These tracks tend to be without turf courses, just bread and butter dirt mile ovals with most of the card being made up of claiming and maiden claimers who meet in the same nw since forever conditions every week or two. By contrast major league racing like Saratoga where horses are shipping from the four corners of the earth, switching surfaces constantly, full fields of twelve where most of them have never been on the same course with one another, it's tough to be working with just a horses to watch list as a cornerstone of the approach.... yeah it's still racing but a very different game where you have to sit on your hands a lot more to protect your bankroll or suffer the death of a thousand cuts. I feel in order to maximize playability on the horses as they 'run back' you might want to increase focus on the minor league tracks, provided of course the mad bombers aren't operating there. :)

I like your point about the no turf stuff, the constantly switching back and forth is throwing monkey wrenches into my detailed notes.

I like your idea on the minors, i agree.