LookingBack@2/21

[Derek2U]

GT & Rick --- try illuminating us with a pick sometimes. its no
disgrace if ur picks suc. join our next p4 contest ... even PA
picks em there. most of what u type sounds like crap but its
ez to prove ur ability if u post ur genius. both of u should stop
examining those old 650,000 races & try a new race or 2.

[GameTheory]

I have nothing against posting picks or anything, I just have no interest in it. I mean that literally -- it's dull (to me). I know lots of people like to swap opinions on specific horses/races, have friendly competitions and so forth, but I don't really care about that stuff -- I just don't. If we're at the track together the last thing I want to talk about is, "Who do you like?" I don't care who you like -- I'm just trying to make some money on positive expectation opportunities. In the past, I've tried entering a few of those online handicapping contests where you enter selections everyday, but I always FORGET about it altogether for a couple of days and then I'm out.

My ego is plenty healthy enough without trying to bolster it by being Mr. Big Shot in the Selections section. Plus the spot plays I use that are "picks" (rather than the probability-based overlay hunting, where I wouldn't really have any selections until the race is about to go off) tend to be either longshot winners or total dogs, mostly total dogs. Then I'd start to worry that if I posted those things people might be dumb enough to bet on them, and I'd have contributed to someone betting on a string of last-place losers while probably missing the eventual big winner.

How would that be illuminating to you? What do you get out of it? Why is it so important that everyone post picks? I'll do it if you can convince me there is a good reason...

[Rick]

Derek,

I feel pretty much the same way about making "picks" that GT does. I don't really feel the need to prove anything. But, if I did get involved in posting selections, I'd want to post at least several hundred of them in order to really show any significance. Being lucky or unlucky for one day doesn't really prove much. As I've said before, if I posted a lot of selections, anyone with half a brain and a good database could reverse engineer my method easily. Maybe I'm being too cautious, but I'd really rather not have everyone else betting the same selections. If you think what I say "sounds like crap" then you're really not getting it and my opinion of your ability to win just went south. My philosophy is that I'll freely share my opinion on how to analyze the data but you have to do the work yourself in order to get the specific factors and correct weightings. Lazy people, which is almost everyone, just want the answers so it's not any threat to my profitability to talk about the process of getting there. It's really not that mysterious if you pay attention to what I'm saying and put out the effort.

[Suff]

Originally posted by GameTheory
I have nothing against posting picks or anything, I just have no interest in it. I mean that literally -- it's dull (to me).

So why not leave it there?

[Suff]

Originally posted by Rick
Derek,

I feel pretty much the same way about making "picks" that GT does. I don't really feel the need to prove anything. But, if I did get involved in posting selections, put out the effort.
. I have 40 guys playing a pik4 contest for 3 months..every weekend. most of them have less than 4 grand and play everyweek becaue they enjoy it.

why you two have to take swings at people to justify your thinking. If you don't choose to do soemthing then just don't.

you think posting picks is egO AND BIG SHOT? Try reading the "smart lessons" people post all day and night in the general handcapping forum... You want to see ego at work.. thats where to look..

We play because we enjoy it. I don't have the time to say anything else expect

I'm not here for the horses anymore.. I have'nt made a bet in 2 weeks..and may not make another in a long time. My betting button is off. I'm just playing for pleasure. I don't have any money that I can responsibly wager right now. I need every last buck I have to pull off a relocation in 2 weeks.

[Tom]

In all fainess, Derek is the one who keeps throwing taunts at them for not posting selections. On several threads.
I too have stopped playing these contests because, well, they are boring, offer no reward, force me to make selctions on races I don't like to handicap, and committ me to a certain time/track when I might not want to do that.
When I am in the WarRoom, playing for real, I have no problem posting what I like, and do so almost every weekend.
You guys enjoy the contests, why not leave it at THAT?

[Derek2U]

Good Sunday Morning Guys ... and Lighten Up dudes ... its
a Big Great World outside & dont run to Mama when you see
PeoplePrints on the grass, peace out

[JimG]

Originally posted by GameTheory
Plus the spot plays I use that are "picks" (rather than the probability-based overlay hunting, where I wouldn't really have any selections until the race is about to go off) tend to be either longshot winners or total dogs, mostly total dogs.

GT,

I can relate to that. Most of the picks I give out in the War Room fit that category.

Where the war room is helpful to me is in two areas:

1) Including a horse in exotic play from one of the good players there that I might have overlooked. At least it causes me to take a second look.

2) I have made some great online friendships from my time in the war room(beyond the whodoyalike variety).

Hope you have a great day and let's hope that some longshots win today.

JimG

[JimG]

Originally posted by Rick
As I've said before, if I posted a lot of selections, anyone with half a brain and a good database could reverse engineer my method easily. Maybe I'm being too cautious, but I'd really rather not have everyone else betting the same selections.

Hello Rick,

I have the "half a brain" but not the database to do what you suggest. Besides, I am so egotistical and stubborn that you could post 10 winners in a row and I would KNOW that my horse would win that 11th race, not yours...LOL.

But I do respect the fact that you've worked hard to find an edge and do not want to erode that. If you ever decide to come into the war room and talk some horses, I would welcome that.

Have a good one.

JimG

[Suff]

If someone asks me to go bowling. I never go.

I find bowling boring, Dull. A waste of time. Most peope I know that are in Bowling leagues are simpletons.

I don't say that though. I politely decline.

[Rick]

Just to clarify my position. I play two methods. One of them involves a simple weighted combination of three variables that everyone has access to. Those with a database could easily determine through regression what the variables and weightings are after about 30 races. Those without a database would have a harder time, but it wouldn't be impossible. The second method involves spot plays that would be obvious to anyone after just a few races.

I'm not criticizing anyone who wants to play in contests. I've done that a few times in the past, but only where my selections weren't freely available to everyone else. The mouse pad I'm using right now is from a Del Mar contest. Not exactly a huge win, but I did actually win something. I also participated in one BRIS contest and didn't win anything. But all contests involve a different strategy for winning than what I use in my daily wagering and involve too few races to be meaningful.

[PaceAdvantage]

Yeah really Suff. Derek is the one starting this shit....come on! The guys don't feel the need to post picks! Leave them alone!

Let it GO people...waste of time...thread is closed.