Belmont Saturday - undercard

[horses4courses]

The Just A Game stakes is coming up big, even with as few as seven runners.

Mizdirection ships in from California. She'll have her work cut out.

http://c482944.r44.cf2.rackcdn.com/Mizdirection_615_X_400_orig.jpg


Centre Court, Stephanie's Kitten, Dayatthespa are all tough customers.
Hungry Island, Better Lucky, and Laugh Out Loud round out a deep field.

http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/zatt/The_Just_A_Game_is_Coming_up_Huge_123#

[Robert Fischer]

nice race

[VeryOldMan]

That's a nice lineup!

Mizdirection was one of my few correct BC picks, but I need some convincing when you get her off the downhill SA turf course she so clearly loves and newcomers sometimes hate. Others on this board know the handicapping exponentially better than I do, so I'll be interested in their thoughts.

[Arapola]

Mizdirection can get the mile, it's just a matter of course firmness she likes.
Rain all day Friday into early Saturday can change everything.

[Leparoux]

Centre Court

[CincyHorseplayer]

I love this card and especially the Just A Game,it's usually a competitive and potentially profitable race.I do tire of it being a puddle a lot of years and the wet Saturdays at Belmont get on my nerves.I love the Belmont turf courses.

[ManU918]

Stephanie's Kitten is one of the top fillies in the world. They all better hope she wakes up on the wrong side of the hay on Saturday to have a chance.

[Valuist]

How about the True North? The entry of Fast Bullet and Justin Phillip is going to be very tough to beat; dry track or slop.

[Stillriledup]

How about the True North? The entry of Fast Bullet and Justin Phillip is going to be very tough to beat; dry track or slop.

Yes, this seems to be the case. FB will zip to the front and if the track is speed favoring, im not sure how anyone is going to pass him. If its NOT speed favoring somehow, he's still going to be a tough customer.

Fwiw, FB was entered in a much weaker race in California, a race he would have been 4-5 in and scratched for this spot. (the main contender in that race was that really good Bwana Charlie horse for Peter Miller, who ended up winning)

[Valuist]

The 5th may be the most wide open betting race of the day. Not sure who will be favored here. It might be Howie's Tiz, who ran a strong 2nd against a crazy speed bias on May 11. You've also got Moreno, who ran a 91 Beyer in his last dirt race; Dyker Beach, beaten a head with an 83 on May 19; Sneaky Blowout and Risky Asset, both coming off defeats as heavy chalk. Other than Tony D, nobody here would shock me.

[SoCalCircuit]

How bout that Woody - some solid sprinters there. Let em shine looks like he'll be hard to catch, but the Baffert horse has some speed as well. Clearly Now and Forty Tales should be up there and the Zito has been mowing them down, but will probably be too far back to close like that on a sloppy track.

[Leparoux]

Will Point of Entry scratch if it rains?

If not, does that make it clear that he was dodging Wise dan?

[Valuist]

Will Point of Entry scratch if it rains?

If not, does that make it clear that he was dodging Wise dan?

I can't blame him if that is the case. He's the best horse in North America.

[SharpCat]

I can't blame him if that is the case. He's the best horse in North America.

That's debatable. I think Game on Dude is the best horse so far this year.

[Valuist]

That's debatable. I think Game on Dude is the best horse so far this year.

That win at Charles Town was far from awe inspiring.

[SharpCat]

That win at Charles Town was far from awe inspiring.


He did not fire his best shot but still won. Would love to see these 2 to hook up in the G1 Woodward at Saratoga.

[PaceAdvantage]

Will Point of Entry scratch if it rains?

If not, does that make it clear that he was dodging Wise dan?Shug said no, but that was a day or two ago, when the predictions for rainfall amount weren't quite as dire as they are now (4-5 inches possible Friday into Saturday morning).

...trainer Shug McGaughey said emphatically that the 5-year-old will compete in the $500,000 Woodford Reserve Manhattan Handicap (gr. IT) June 8 at Belmont Park, despite the forecast for rain over the weekend.
.
.
.
"I'll tell you one thing, there isn't a horse on the grounds training any better than him," McGaughey said. "He's about as good as a horse can get." http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/78700/manhattan-weather-wont-stop-point-of-entry

[Valuist]

Who will be the biggest favorite on Saturday? Captain Davrick in 4th, Point of Entry in the Manhattan, or the Zayat entry of Fast Bullet/Justin Phillip in the True North? I suspect all 3 will be under even money.

[PhantomOnTour]

Not one of the big ones but still a nice race.

Only GrStks winner is Power Broker so he looks to have a class edge on these. Rebounded nicely off SA Dby flop in the slop at CD last time...gotta use him...he may wire this field.
Settling on #7 Micromanage as my key horse - thrown to the wolves off MSW win last year, time off, nice wide run in slop in last to win it, these seem more like his kind on the return to Stks company.
Also must use #5 New Line and #9 Irsaal...
will consider #8 Wabbajack off a very nice MSW score and owner of the best last out fig.
Trying to beat #4 Doherty for the top spot - tends to hang

as of now:
ex 2-5-9 w 7
win 7

[SharpCat]

Shug said no, but that was a day or two ago, when the predictions for rainfall amount weren't quite as dire as they are now (4-5 inches possible Friday into Saturday morning).

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/78700/manhattan-weather-wont-stop-point-of-entry


Any chance they would postpone the big turf races if they got several inches or more of rain.

[PaceAdvantage]

If the turf course is deemed unsafe, then I'm sure they will be moved to the main track...it's happened before, and I'm sure it will happen again...

[the little guy]

If the turf course is deemed unsafe, then I'm sure they will be moved to the main track...it's happened before, and I'm sure it will happen again...


Really? They moved Grade 1s? Recently? When?

The inside of the courses will be used for the first time in a while on Saturday. The courses are very firm right now. They could use some rain.

[PaceAdvantage]

Really? They moved Grade 1s? Recently? When?

The inside of the courses will be used for the first time in a while on Saturday. The courses are very firm right now. They could use some rain.I did not state a time period. You used the word recently, not me.

It usually doesn't pour like cats and dogs immediately preceding Grade 1 turf events...but it has happened...I can guarantee it...and note I stated "if they deem the turf course unsafe." Obviously, they aren't going to postpone unless for some reason they can't run on the main track either.

[PaceAdvantage]

I guess I haven't checked in a while, but it does still say in the condition head that if the stewards deem it unsafe, the race will be moved to the main track...no?

[Valuist]

The Just A Game stakes is coming up big, even with as few as seven runners.

Mizdirection ships in from California. She'll have her work cut out.

http://c482944.r44.cf2.rackcdn.com/Mizdirection_615_X_400_orig.jpg


Centre Court, Stephanie's Kitten, Dayatthespa are all tough customers.
Hungry Island, Better Lucky, and Laugh Out Loud round out a deep field.

http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/zatt/The_Just_A_Game_is_Coming_up_Huge_123#

Great field. It will be very interesting if it is soft or yielding, as Centre Court, Dayatthespa and Mizdirection are all unproven on softish going.

[SoCalCircuit]

Remember 2 years ago the Belmont track was probably worse than it's going to be this Saturday and they left everything on the turf...even race 13 maiden race.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Remember 2 years ago the Belmont track was probably worse than it's going to be this Saturday and they left everything on the turf...even race 13 maiden race.

Yep,was going to say the same.Boggy turf.

[the little guy]

I did not state a time period. You used the word recently, not me.

It usually doesn't pour like cats and dogs immediately preceding Grade 1 turf events...but it has happened...I can guarantee it...and note I stated "if they deem the turf course unsafe." Obviously, they aren't going to postpone unless for some reason they can't run on the main track either.


We had 4 inches of rain during the 2003 Belmont card and the races remained on the turf.

By the way, I don't think it has happened that Grade 1 turf races came off the grass.

[FantasticDan]

We had 4 inches of rain during the 2003 Belmont card and the races remained on the turf.4 inches?! :eek: Wow, is that handicapper's hyperbole? Obviously it was a sloppy, miserable day, but the almanac for June 7 2003 says .87" of rain fell on that day for Elmont, NY. This NYT article about the race confirms that amount:

http://www.nytimes.com/2003/06/08/sports/sports-of-the-times-even-into-funny-cide-s-storied-life-rain-must-fall.html

''The track at Pimlico was a little wet but nothing like this,'' he said, alluding to the effect of close to an inch of steady rain by post time.

[the little guy]

4 inches?! :eek: Wow, is that handicapper's hyperbole? Obviously it was a sloppy, miserable day, but the almanac for June 7 2003 says .87" of rain fell on that day for Elmont, NY. This NYT article about the race confirms that amount:

http://www.nytimes.com/2003/06/08/sports/sports-of-the-times-even-into-funny-cide-s-storied-life-rain-must-fall.html

''The track at Pimlico was a little wet but nothing like this,'' he said, alluding to the effect of close to an inch of steady rain by post time.


I'll take the over on .87 ( for a million ) and honestly believe the number given was 4 inches. There is no way it was less than an inch.

[castaway01]

I'll take the over on .87 ( for a million ) and honestly believe the number given was 4 inches. There is no way it was less than an inch.

He's right about the amount of rain on Belmont Day, but what you're probably remembering is that 8 inches of rain also fell during the week leading up to the race. It was a soggy, nasty week.

Hope the rain at least clears the area by the time the card starts tomorrow, though I know it doesn't look good.

[PaceAdvantage]

We had 4 inches of rain during the 2003 Belmont card and the races remained on the turf.

By the way, I don't think it has happened that Grade 1 turf races came off the grass.I'll defer to you...but I could have sworn I was there on a day where a Grade 1 came off the grass at Belmont...this was a long time ago...but I just looked at the records of some of the major turf races run at Belmont and can't find any in the last 20 years that were listed as being run on the main track...so I must be wrong on that...

[horses4courses]

So.....with the heavy rainfall within the past 24 hours in NY, let's assume that the G1 races will stay on the turf,
with any other turf races being taken off.

The forecast says the sun will be out from early in the day there tomorrow.
Any tendencies on Big Sandy when it starts out wet, but dries out as the day goes along?
I know the track does not always react the same way each time there has been heavy rain,
but maybe someone has an opinion to share?

[Stillriledup]

So.....with the heavy rainfall within the past 24 hours in NY, let's assume that the G1 races will stay on the turf,
with any other turf races being taken off.

The forecast says the sun will be out from early in the day there tomorrow.
Any tendencies on Big Sandy when it starts out wet, but dries out as the day goes along?
I know the track does not always react the same way each time there has been heavy rain,
but maybe someone has an opinion to share?

I would think that if the track dries out, it will dry out from the outside in...which means if the inside lanes are the last to dry, it will be inside and rail favoring for those races. Its going to be an interesting day biaswise if the track keeps changing race by race as it dries out. We gotta be on our toes!

[castaway01]

Steve Byk reporting Muddy/Yielding, 3rd race off turf, the rest stay on.

[Valuist]

I have seen a number of people (not necessarily here but elsewhere) who are high on Capo Bastone. I just don't get it. I'm guessing those that like him are playing for an epic pace collapse. But they seem to be overlooking a couple factors: Capo Bastone GOT that epic pace collapse in the Derby Trial, at a longer distance, and against a weaker field.....and he still couldn't win. Horses like Clearly Now and Declan's Warrior are not only better than him but they will get first run on the speed IF there's a collapse. Taking a relatively low price on a horse who's going to be 15 lengths out in a sprint seems crazy to me.

[Robert Goren]

I would think that if the track dries out, it will dry out from the outside in...which means if the inside lanes are the last to dry, it will be inside and rail favoring for those races. Its going to be an interesting day biaswise if the track keeps changing race by race as it dries out. We gotta be on our toes!The dirt track generally favors the inside when drying and almost always favors front runners. The inside part is counter-intuitive, I know, but it is what I have observed. I will be looking for inside speed today until proven otherwise.

[Tom]

No late scratches on a day like this?
Amazing!

[Stillriledup]

No late scratches on a day like this?
Amazing!

Of course not, its a 'big day' so these horses magically arent feeling good. If this wasnt a 'big day' this card would be decimated. Amazing how that works.

[ManU918]

Stephanie's Kitten is one of the top fillies in the world. They all better hope she wakes up on the wrong side of the hay on Saturday to have a chance.

She is truly a monster....

[Valuist]

How does Gimme Credit not even crack the super in that race following the Belmont? Haven't seen it yet; must've had a brutal trip. Maybe age is finally catching up to him.