Robotic Pic3 Testing

[Ray2000]

Robotic Pic3s tossing out Predicted 1st and 2nd Crowd favorites.
Results to follow.
Playing these on paper to start.


MR R1....6 / 82 / 8
MR R2....82 / 8 / 528
MR R3....8 / 528 / 41
MR R4....528 / 41 / 2
MR R5....41 / 2 / 1
MR R6....2 / 1 / 2
MR R7....1 / 2 / 43
MR R8....2 / 43 / 2
MR R9....43 / 2 / 58
MR R10....2 / 58 / 18
MR R11....58 / 18 / 5

MEA R3....24 / 8 / 63
MEA R6....43 / 3 / 5
MEA R9....81 / 83 / 97
MEA R12....2 / 16 / 72

MOH R1....95 / 5 / 32
MOH R2....5 / 32 / 98
MOH R3....32 / 98 / 510
MOH R4....98 / 510 / 6
MOH R5....510 / 6 / 93
MOH R6....6 / 93 / 6
MOH R7....93 / 6 / 6
MOH R8....6 / 6 / 1
MOH R9....6 / 1 / 9110
MOH R10....1 / 9110 / 8

[Sinner369]

Is this a new version?

[Ray2000]

Sinner

I was reading:

http://www.econ.washington.edu/user/ellis/econ482/horse1105.pdf

about Pic 3 strategies and the advantage of eliminating crowd faves so I put together a method of predicting the favorite which I hope to be superior to Morning Line numbers.

The top 3 selections in each race are still from my regular computer program (robot). The new part is I'm tossing out any picks that the program "thinks" will be the favorite or 2nd choice on the tote.

This prediction method uses a different model for each race track so I'll be doing Meadows, Mohawk, Monticello, Pocono and Hoosier, all have multiple pic3 wagers each day.

Might be informative ...

[Sinner369]

Keep us posted on the results...........I play Pick 3's myself and usually on the WEG circuit..........Mohawk and Woodbine......!

[mrroyboy]

Good work Ray

[Ray2000]

Terrible start with bad accident and all
Going for longshots in this run so hit rate will be low.
Ignoring Monti R1 and 2,


Results Todate
$1 base tickets, all Scratches treated as a loss
Fav was correctly predicted..
Date Track Cost Return Bot ML
3-Jun MR 39 0 8/12 8/12
3-Jun MEA 18 0 11/15 13/15
3-Jun MOH 35 0 7/11 7/11
92


Tuesday, 6/4

HOP R1....7 / 3 / 2
HOP R2....3 / 2 / 7
HOP R3....2 / 7 / 57
HOP R4....7 / 57 / 6107
HOP R5....57 / 6107 / 6
HOP R6....6107 / 6 / 9
HOP R7....6 / 9 / 259
HOP R8....9 / 259 / 6
HOP R9....259 / 6 / 105
HOP R10....6 / 105 / 52
HOP R11....105 / 52 / 419

MEA R3....71 / 12 / 6
MEA R6....1 / 1 / 2
MEA R9....7 / 31 / 64
MEA R12....349 / 2 / 19

MR R1....3 / 18 / 18
MR R2....18 / 18 / 6
MR R3....18 / 6 / 1
MR R4....6 / 1 / 54
MR R5....1 / 54 / 5
MR R6....54 / 5 / 5
MR R7....5 / 5 / 5
MR R8....5 / 5 / 53
MR R9....5 / 53 / 4

PCD R1....45 / 9 / 1
PCD R4....128 / 68 / 4
PCD R7....291 / 35 / 7
PCD R10....3 / 45 / 82

[Ray2000]

Not good and might have to reprogram the bot to gather Pic 3 results from a different source.
The Racing channel reports pic3s Willy-nilly. :mad:



Results Todate
$1 base tickets all Scratches treated as a loss
*Fav was correctly predicted..
Track Cost Return Bot* ML*
MR 60 0 15/22 15/22
MEA 33 0 21/30 24/30
MOH 35 0 7/11 7/11
HOP 47 0 8/13 9/13
PCD 18 0 9/14 9/14
193


Weds, 6/5
HOP R1....1 | 12 | 27
HOP R2....12 | 27 | 8
HOP R3....27 | 8 | 6
HOP R4....8 | 6 | 54
HOP R5....6 | 54 | 3
HOP R6....54 | 3 | 5
HOP R7....3 | 5 | 974
HOP R8....5 | 974 | 265
HOP R9....974 | 265 | 52
HOP R10....265 | 52 | 35
HOP R11....52 | 35 | 410

MEA R3....51 | 2 | 4
MEA R6....74 | 8 | 5
MEA R9....28 | 31 | 2
MEA R12....8 | 78 | 395

MR R1....8 | 1 | 23
MR R2....1 | 23 | 7
MR R3....23 | 7 | 5
MR R4....7 | 5 | 276
MR R5....5 | 276 | 5
MR R6....276 | 5 | 12
MR R7....5 | 12 | 1
MR R8....12 | 1 | 6
MR R9....1 | 6 | 81
MR R10....6 | 81 | 1
MR R11....81 | 1 | 83

PCD R1....17 | 63 | 9
PCD R4....7 | 6 | 3
PCD R7....54 | 14 | 31
PCD R10....54 | 8 | 97

[melman]

A pic3 play for me today at the Meadows.

R3 5712
R4 732
R5 4

Ray it's a Milke Wild Man Wilder special. :)

[Ray2000]

OK mel, good luck

I'm thinking of speeding this test run up a bit by not tossing out the predicting 2nd fave, just the top fave. That will increase the cost quite a bit, but I'm playing these on paper anyway.

Meadows R3 now becomes...

MEA R3....51 | 12 | 49

I'll buy that ticket for real... :)

[mrroyboy]

Ray what you are checking is good but it may not be best for pic'3 etc

[Ray2000]

Yes roy, this is not working out and collecting data manually is a pain.
Also
Robot 'Favorite Predictor' is falling behind Morning Line.
May have to revisit model.


Results Todate ($1 base)
*Fave correctly predicted %
Track P3Cost Return Bot* ML*
MR 82 0 60% 66%
MEA 47 0 58% 67%
MOH 38 0 58% 58%
HOP 113 0 69% 73%
PCD 35 0 72% 79%
315


Thursday
HOP R1....6 | 43 | 2
HOP R2....43 | 2 | 478
Race 3 is now a Pick4
HOP R4....478 | 410 | 2
HOP R5....410 | 2 | 7
HOP R6....2 | 7 | 379
HOP R7....7 | 379 | 5
HOP R8....379 | 5 | 23
HOP R9....5 | 23 | 10
HOP R10....23 | 10 | 52
HOP R11....10 | 52 | 8

MOH R1....19 | 4610 | 8
MOH R2....4610 | 8 | 83
MOH R3....8 | 83 | 59
MOH R4....83 | 59 | 67
MOH R5....59 | 67 | 51
MOH R6....67 | 51 | 107
MOH R7....51 | 107 | 97
MOH R8....107 | 97 | 148
MOH R9....97 | 148 | 26
MOH R10....148 | 26 | 1

MR R1....5 | 51 | 4
MR R2....51 | 4 | 5
MR R3....4 | 5 | 41
MR R4....5 | 41 | 3
MR R5....41 | 3 | 42
MR R6....3 | 42 | 71
MR R7....42 | 71 | 76
MR R8....71 | 76 | 387
MR R9....76 | 387 | 1
MR R10....387 | 1 | 461

[SchagFactorToWin]

I've tested some P3 methods. I found that tossing the ML fav didn't work- they win too often. I pick up some nice paying P3s with 2 favs and a long shot.

Here's what I tested over 4000 races:
1) my top pick (avg. Win odds=2:1): positive ROI, low win rate (exp. win rate 4.1%, actual win rate 4.2%), small bet size, but less actual $ profit than (3) below.
2) top 3 picks: losing ROI, good win rate (exp. win rate 33.9%, actual win rate 34.4%), large bet size
3) top 2 picks: positive ROI, decent win rate (exp. win rate 16.7%, actual win rate 18.1%- not statistically significant of a diff.), reasonable bet size.

I keep a bank and if the balance at the end of the day is greater than my initial bank (the balance I started with originally, not that day's starting balance), that is my profit. With the Top 2 method, profits graph a nice wave pattern. Although the bank loses money 2/3 of the days, it makes a profit about 1 out of every 8 days.

Alas, pool sizes limit the bets to the $2-4 range.

[Ray2000]

SFTW

Very Interesting, thx for sharing

My original reasoning for this testing was... if I could identify the over-bet horses in the pick3 pool, particularly in the 2nd and 3rd legs where no real time tote info is available, then removing them from my ticket should increase the ROI. This, of course, is the same as trying to identify False Favorites in any Win Pool, a very hard task. The first step was to at least do a better job (no pun intended) than the Morning Line in predicting the favorite, False or otherwise, and then manually decide to 'Single it' or 'Toss it'

So far, the method I'm using to identify Faves is not working, and as you have shown, tossing the ML is not a good approach.

What would be nice (and I'm not sure the big bots don't have this capability) would be to have access to the n x n x n Pick3 matrix showing probable payouts...

[melman]

Guys I play a lot of pic3's and I think an important helpful item is the first leg. If I can toss the fav in the first leg I bet more money. It appears that more than just a few pic players really love the idea of being "live" after leg one. This can set up many overlaid pic3's.

[Ray2000]

Good point, mel

Makes me wonder how times when I liked a longshot in leg2 or leg3 and have used a leg 1 obviously overbet fave on my ticket (possibly doubling the investment!) just because I didn't want to miss out on the longshot if it comes in.

[mrroyboy]

Good stuff guys. All research is good.

[Ray2000]

Keep doing this 'till I hit something!.......Go PENS

Results Todate
$1 base tickets all Scratches treated as a loss
*Fav was correctly predicted..
Track Cost Return Bot* ML*
HOP 149 0 67% 69%
MEA 47 0 58% 67%
MOH 116 0 54% 63%
MR 133 0 60% 64%
PCD 35 0 72% 79%
480


Friday 6/7
HOP R1....98 | 9 | 4
HOP R2....9 | 4 | 6
HOP R3....4 | 6 | 5
HOP R4....6 | 5 | 678
HOP R5....5 | 678 | 71
HOP R6....678 | 71 | 75
HOP R7....71 | 75 | 54
HOP R8....75 | 54 | 49
HOP R9....54 | 49 | 1
HOP R10....49 | 1 | 82
HOP R11....1 | 82 | 4

MEA R3....58 | 2 | 78
MEA R6....24 | 46 | 5
MEA R9....7 | 758 | 78

MEA R12....15 | 25 | 54
MOH R1....39 | 57 | 51
MOH R2....57 | 51 | 10
MOH R3....51 | 10 | 62
MOH R4....10 | 62 | 7
MOH R5....62 | 7 | 16
MOH R6....7 | 16 | 2
MOH R7....16 | 2 | 35
MOH R8....2 | 35 | 5
MOH R9....35 | 5 | 1087
MOH R10....5 | 1087 | 698

PCD R1....7 | 192 | 89
PCD R4....5 | 4 | 7
PCD R7....47 | 568 | 7
PCD R10....15 | 81 | 9

[Sinner369]

Guys I play a lot of pic3's and I think an important helpful item is the first leg. If I can toss the fav in the first leg I bet more money. It appears that more than just a few pic players really love the idea of being "live" after leg one. This can set up many overlaid pic3's.

The first leg is the only race where you can see the true odds before making the Pick 3 bet..........so if the "Chalk" does not come in then usually the Pick 3 is profitable..........!

Ray........the only other angle is not to bet the favorites with each other in the other legs because even if they come in..........it would be a losing proposition.

Example for each leg ..........leave out..............F1 x F2 X F3....where F is the favorite horse in each leg........course you would have to project who will be the favorite.

[Ray2000]

...for each leg ..........leave out..............F1 x F2 X F3....where F is the favorite horse in each leg........course you would have to project who will be the favorite.

You're right and that's what I'm trying to do.

Currently I'm using these factors from the program to predict the fave.
Different weights applied depending on which Track.

1. Morning Line Odds
2. Top Tier Driver >.300 UDR
3. Last Race Odds
4. Last Race 4thQ Time
5. Class shift from last race
6. Last Race Finish

The robot's predicted favorite is mirroring the Morning Line fave too closely.
Need to reduce the ML weight or eliminate it from the model without sacrificing accuracy.

My tickets posted in this paper run are tossing out the top 2 predicted faves.
If I kick out only the top fave the cost jumps to $1,217 from $480
and sadly, still no hits (but not sure of scratched results,
I think some tracks give you the board favorite as a sub)

[Ray2000]

Finally hit one, Meadows R12-14...:)

Results to date
$1 base tickets all Scratches treated as a loss
*Fav was correctly predicted..
Track Cost Return Bot* ML*
HOP 200 0 67% 71%
MEA 69 151 62% 68%
MOH 161 0 58% 58%
MR 161 0 60% 64%
PCD 52 0 67% 77%
643 151



Sat, 6/8
HOP R1....7 | 7 | 98
HOP R2....7 | 98 | 7
HOP R3....98 | 7 | 65
HOP R4....7 | 65 | 96
HOP R5....65 | 96 | 1
HOP R6....96 | 1 | 67

MOH R1....14 | 6 | 7
MOH R2....6 | 7 | 6
MOH R3....7 | 6 | 83
MOH R4....6 | 83 | 71
MOH R5....83 | 71 | 27
MOH R6....71 | 27 | 54
MOH R7....27 | 54 | 65
MOH R8....54 | 65 | 10
MOH R9....65 | 10 | 5
MOH R10....10 | 5 | 86
MOH R11....5 | 86 | 89

PCD R1....61 | 29 | 97
PCD R4....5 | 53 | 47
PCD R7....82 | 4 | 59
PCD R10....61 | 945 | 64

[Ray2000]

Results Todate
$1 base tickets all Scratches treated as a loss
*Fav was correctly predicted..
Track Cost Return Bot* ML*
HOP 220 0 68% 73%
MEA 69 151 62% 68%
MOH 206 0 59% 59%
MR 161 0 60% 64%
PCD 108 0 51% 57%
764 151
Sunday 6/9
PCD R1....457 | 49 | 21
PCD R4....8 | 64 | 19
PCD R7....45 | 35 | 5
PCD R10....23 | 89 | 25

[Ray2000]

Pokie stats were wrong in last post
included Sunday before races were run :rolleyes:
$2 Betting 1st number in all Pic3 legs to Win = -10% ROI (474 return on 528 bet)


Results Todate
$1 base tickets all Scratches treated as a loss
*Fav was correctly predicted..
Track Cost Return Bot* ML*
HOP 220 0 68% 73%
MEA 69 151 62% 68%
MOH 206 0 59% 59%
MR 161 0 60% 64%
PCD 108 0 60% 67%
764 151

Monday
MEA R3....4 | 8 | 2
MEA R6....65 | 87 | 5
MEA R9....8 | 21 | 23
MEA R12....1 | 5 | 18

MOH R1....96 | 67 | 4
MOH R2....67 | 4 | 510
MOH R3....4 | 510 | 679
MOH R4....510 | 679 | 8
MOH R5....679 | 8 | 79
MOH R6....8 | 79 | 25
MOH R7....79 | 25 | 1
MOH R8....25 | 1 | 8
MOH R9....1 | 8 | 710
MOH R10....8 | 710 | 49
MOH R11....710 | 49 | 107

MR R1....51 | 23 | 21
MR R2....23 | 21 | 6
MR R3....21 | 6 | 36
MR R4....6 | 36 | 574
MR R5....36 | 574 | 37
MR R6....574 | 37 | 4
MR R7....37 | 4 | 6
MR R8....4 | 6 | 76
MR R9....6 | 76 | 18
MR R10....76 | 18 | 87
MR R11....18 | 87 | 7

[Ray2000]

Had 4 in a row at the Meadows (races 10-13) including a $34 winner
and got nothing in the 2 pic3s :mad:
Pick4 at Northfield had place/place/win/place ..no parlays
Patience, Patience


Results Todate
$1 base tickets all Scratches treated as a loss
*Fav was correctly predicted..
Track Cost Return Bot* ML*
HOP 220 0 68% 73%
MEA 80 151 61% 67%
MOH 256 0 58% 60%
MR 193 0 60% 63%
PCD 108 0 60% 67%
857 151

Tuesday
MEA R3....8 | 14 | 34
MEA R6....56 | 95 | 69
MEA R9....7 | 72 | 6
MEA R12....2 | 8 | 91

HOP R1....6 | 9 | 57
HOP R2....9 | 57 | 3
HOP R3....57 | 3 | 5
HOP R4....3 | 5 | 261
HOP R5....5 | 261 | 56
HOP R6....261 | 56 | 1610
HOP R7....56 | 1610 | 26
HOP R8....1610 | 26 | 21
HOP R9....26 | 21 | 6
HOP R10....21 | 6 | 25
HOP R11....6 | 25 | 5

MR R1....1 | 24 | 17
MR R2....24 | 17 | 5
MR R3....17 | 5 | 46
MR R4....5 | 46 | 65
MR R5....46 | 65 | 25
MR R6....65 | 25 | 36
MR R7....25 | 36 | 56
MR R8....36 | 56 | 213
MR R9....56 | 213 | 73
MR R10....213 | 73 | 78

PCD R1....76 | 92 | 35
PCD R4....5 | 31 | 328
PCD R7....93 | 69 | 28
PCD R10....51 | 9 | 17

[Ray2000]

Not getting anywhere so I've re-formulated this run.
Now tossing out any robot pick that is the ML fave OR is also the Robots predicted Favorite.
Reran all cards for Jun 3 to Jun 10
Cost will approximately double, All 1$ tickets
Will continue for another week or 2


Results Todate
$1 base tickets all Scratches treated as a loss
Track Cost Return Bot&ML ML pick was fave
HOP 507 394 75% 73%
MEA 169 237 79% 67%
MOH 473 209 74% 60%
MR 336 30 72% 63%
PCD 149 285 76% 67%
1634 1155


Todays Plays (6/11)
HOP R1....26 | 19 | 547
HOP R2....19 | 547 | 36
HOP R3....547 | 36 | 65
HOP R4....36 | 65 | 21
HOP R5....65 | 21 | 56
HOP R6....21 | 56 | 610
HOP R7....56 | 610 | 26
HOP R8....610 | 26 | 421
HOP R9....26 | 421 | 61
HOP R10....421 | 61 | 25
HOP R11....61 | 25 | 25

MEA R3....82 | 64 | 34
MEA R6....56 | 985 | 691
MEA R9....876 | 72 | 2
MEA R12....482 | 57 | 921

MR R1....13 | 246 | 14
MR R2....246 | 14 | 5
MR R3....14 | 5 | 465
MR R4....5 | 465 | 15
MR R5....465 | 15 | 25
MR R6....15 | 25 | 36
MR R7....25 | 36 | 58
MR R8....36 | 58 | 13
MR R9....58 | 13 | 723
MR R10....13 | 723 | 48

PCD R1....176 | 92 | 435
PCD R4....345 | 371 | 38
PCD R7....38 | 29 | 25
PCD R10....31 | 29 | 17

[Ray2000]

Yesterday $286 cost, $222 return 3 hits

Results Todate

$1 base
Track Cost Return ROI Bot&ML ML ->pick was fave
HOP 619 522 0.84 78% 73%
MEA 219 251 1.15 79% 67%
MOH 473 209 0.44 74% 60%
MR 408 109 0.27 72% 65%
PCD 201 285 1.42 77% 67%
1920 1376


Weds
HOP R1....9 | 27 | 710
HOP R2....27 | 710 | 186
HOP R3....710 | 186 | 12
HOP R4....186 | 12 | 81
HOP R5....12 | 81 | 43
HOP R6....81 | 43 | 15
HOP R7....43 | 15 | 6
HOP R8....15 | 6 | 58
HOP R9....6 | 58 | 76........will play 46/581/76

MEA R3....69 | 521 | 6
MEA R6....754 | 27 | 78
MEA R9....53 | 7 | 65

MR R1....37 | 453 | 1
MR R2....453 | 1 | 32
MR R3....1 | 32 | 243
MR R4....32 | 243 | 47
MR R5....243 | 47 | 2
MR R6....47 | 2 | 1
MR R7....2 | 1 | 14..........will play 216/1/154
MR R8....1 | 14 | 2
MR R9....14 | 2 | 62

PCD R1....61 | 7 | 1
PCD R4....713 | 42 | 284.....will play 127/8/273
PCD R7....7 | 152 | 693
PCD R10....837 | 4 | 5

[Ray2000]

Yesterday
Robot -$168 no hits
My plays
HOP 6-1-3 paid $410.95 ..needed 6-1-6 lost the photo for same price :mad:
MR 6-2-1 paid $37.60.......needed 6-1-1
PCD 1-8-2 paid $41.80......hit

Results Todate

$1 base
Track Cost Return ROI Bot&ML ML %Pick was fave
HOP 687 522 0.76 75% 70%
MEA 241 251 1.04 76% 63%
MOH 473 209 0.44 74% 60%
MR 454 109 0.24 73% 65%
PCD 233 285 1.23 76% 68%
2088 1376 0.66



Today, Thurs ..only 1 will-play, bad weather

HOP R1....754 | 761 | 69
HOP R2....761 | 69 | 92
HOP R3....program shows no P3?
HOP R4....92 | 97 | 1031
HOP R5....97 | 1031 | 102
HOP R6....1031 | 102 | 7
HOP R7....102 | 7 | 83
HOP R8....7 | 83 | 31
HOP R9....83 | 31 | 68
HOP R10....31 | 68 | 72

MOH R1....95 | 14 | 37
MOH R2....14 | 37 | 19
MOH R3....37 | 19 | 54
MOH R4....19 | 54 | 102
MOH R5....54 | 102 | 651
MOH R6....102 | 651 | 39
MOH R7....651 | 39 | 76
MOH R8....39 | 76 | 34..........My play 3,10,2 / 6,3 / 8,3,4,6 ...24 20¢ tkts
MOH R9....76 | 34 | 632
MOH R10....34 | 632 | 1

MR R1....15 | 521 | 5
MR R2....521 | 5 | 254
MR R3....5 | 254 | 31
MR R4....254 | 31 | 38
MR R5....31 | 38 | 82
MR R6....38 | 82 | 53
MR R7....82 | 53 | 53
MR R8....53 | 53 | 47
MR R9....53 | 47 | 625
MR R10....47 | 625 | 52
MR R11....625 | 52 | 76

[Ray2000]

Yesterday messes up my numbers
Robot had 3 hits and Hoosier R2-3-4 paid $787.90 for 50¢
Trouble is there was only $1005 in the entire pool so what do I use for $1 base?
and if the run was real not paper, the payoff would be $393....?
I'll use 787 for the records, it's the % correct on predicted Faves that I'm after.

Results to date

$1 base
Track Cost Return ROI Bot&ML ML %Pick was fave
HOP 771 1488 1.93 75% 69%
MEA 241 251 1.04 76% 63%
MOH 567 209 0.37 72% 59%
MR 555 150 0.27 73% 63%
PCD 233 285 1.23 76% 68%
2367 2383 1.01


HOP R1....8 | 78 | 72
HOP R2....78 | 72 | 518
HOP R3....72 | 518 | 2
HOP R4....518 | 2 | 5
HOP R5....2 | 5 | 186
HOP R6....5 | 186 | 71
HOP R7....186 | 71 | 4
HOP R8....71 | 4 | 47

MEA R3....5 | 573 | 72
MEA R6....734 | 673 | 1
MEA R9....61 | 96 | 6

MOH R1....19 | 64 | 2
MOH R2....64 | 2 | 69
MOH R3....2 | 69 | 67
MOH R4....69 | 67 | 108
MOH R5....67 | 108 | 95
MOH R6....108 | 95 | 103
MOH R7....95 | 103 | 43
MOH R8....103 | 43 | 15
MOH R9....43 | 15 | 28
MOH R10....15 | 28 | 791

PCD R1....16 | 91 | 915
PCD R4....624 | 84 | 86
PCD R7....23 | 29 | 128
PCD R10....154 | 65 | 18

[Ray2000]

yesterday...ZIP
Results to date

$1 base
Track Cost Return ROI Bot&ML ML %Pick was fave
HOP 815 1488 1.83 71% 65%
MEA 260 251 0.97 76% 62%
MOH 639 209 0.33 69% 57%
MR 555 150.2 0.27 73% 63%
PCD 281 286 1.02 76% 69%
2550 2384.2 0.93

Saturday
HOP R1....15 | 826 | 715
HOP R2....826 | 715 | 846
HOP R3....715 | 846 | 42
HOP R4....846 | 42 | 6
HOP R5....42 | 6 | 645
HOP R6....6 | 645 | 5
HOP R7....645 | 5 | 84
HOP R8....5 | 84 | 674
HOP R9....84 | 674 | 584
HOP R10....674 | 584 | 86
HOP R11....584 | 86 | 41

MEA R3....718 | 64 | 14
MEA R6....62 | 16 | 5
MEA R9....854 | 97 | 93

MOH R1....8 | 85 | 36
MOH R2....85 | 36 | 52
MOH R3....36 | 52 | 85
MOH R4....52 | 85 | 104
MOH R5....85 | 104 | 310
MOH R6....104 | 310 | 962
MOH R7....310 | 962 | 72
MOH R8....962 | 72 | 4
MOH R9....72 | 4 | 592
MOH R10....4 | 592 | 18
MOH R11....592 | 18 | 73

PCD R1....254 | 7 | 835
PCD R4....65 | 31 | 57
PCD R7....256 | 3 | 569
PCD R10....7 | 46 | 52

[Ray2000]

Yesterday 1 hit at the Meadows $95

My real picks/bets took a bad hit.
Except for a 100 second thrill w/ Captive Audience to TOS, it sucked..
Im Feelin Good..........4th at 6/1
Captive Audience......6th at 38/1
Holdingallthecards.....5th at 92/1
Contract Hit.............scr sick
Art Of Illusion...........5th at 17/1
Domethatagain.........2nd at fave

Results To date

$1 base
Track Cost Return ROI Bot&ML ML %Pick was fave
HOP 953 1488 1.56 72% 66%
MEA 288 346 1.20 75% 60%
MOH 729 209 0.29 71% 60%
MR 555 150.2 0.27 73% 63%
PCD 281 311 0.92 75% 68%
2806 2504.2 0.89

Sunday
PCD R1....437 | 85 | 17
PCD R4....79 | 12 | 563
PCD R7....96 | 478 | 742
PCD R10....495 | 946 | 963

[Ray2000]

End of run
Need to try a different method for Fave Prediction
Robot overall at 38% correct is poor compared to 63% for ML
Also stay away from *MR and *MOH :D

Results (corrected Pokie from Sunday's numbers)

$1 base
Track Cost Return ROI Bot&ML ML %Pick was fave
HOP 953 1488 1.56 72% 66%
MEA 288 346 1.20 75% 60%
MOH 729 209 0.29* 71% 60%
MR 555 150.2 0.27* 73% 63%
PCD 311 285 0.92 75% 68%
2836 2478.2 0.87

[LottaKash]

End of run
Need to try a different method for Fave Prediction
Robot overall at 38% correct is poor compared to 63% for ML
Also stay away from *MR and *MOH :D

Results (corrected Pokie from Sunday's numbers)

$1 base
Track Cost Return ROI Bot&ML ML %Pick was fave
HOP 953 1488 1.56 72% 66%
MEA 288 346 1.20 75% 60%
MOH 729 209 0.29* 71% 60%
MR 555 150.2 0.27* 73% 63%
PCD 311 285 0.92 75% 68%
2836 2478.2 0.87


Still Ray, I enjoyed your run all the same....I salute your efforts :ThmbUp: ...and your honesty in your interim evaluation...I love the "real-truth" in racing...

Tweak it baby !........:jump: