EPSOM

[Bennie]

Two quick questions for anyone looking at the Epsom races Friday and Saturday. What are your opinions on Moth and Secret in the Oaks and Ruler in the Derby? And when I went to look at post times for both, they are 4:00. Is this their time or ours and if theirs, what is the time difference here?
Thanks for any replies.

[flatstats]

The race times are 4:00pm GMT so 11:00am EDT

Oaks
It's not rare for this race to go to one of the bigger prices. In the past 10 years the winner was from the first three in the betting only 3 out of 10 times. Only one favourite won, whilst there were 3 winners at 20/1+ producing an A/E of 2.05 and an ROI of 41%

Horses that had 2 or 3 good runs (as definied by Quirin) won 9 from 67 starts returning an ROI of 46% and an A/E of 1.20.

8 winners had previously won a British (not Irish) race.

Class risers won 8 from 82 starts, 1.21 IV, 1.07 A/E, 6.4% ROI
Class same won 1 from 23, 0.54 A/E, 0.35 A/E, -52% ROI

Low draw (stall) is negative.

Horses with GB Sires are 1 from 21, 0.59 IV, 0.38 A/E, -85% ROI
Horses with IRE Sires are 1 from 21, 0.73 IV, 0.92 A/E, -9%% ROI
Horses with USA Sires are 5 from 46, 1.35 IV, 0.91 A/E, -11% ROI

The going is crucial. Currently it is Good to Soft. It should dry out to Good.

[flatstats]

Here are some stats for the past 10 runnings of the Epsom Derby

80% of the winners were from the first three in the betting
No winner over 10/1 in the past 10 years from 96 starters

9 winners had a run within the past 8 weeks

90% of the winners placed (1st, 2nd) in their last time out race

Horse with the highest Winnings (win money) 6 from 10, 8.64 Impact Value, 2.29 A/E, 146% ROI

Same Class as LTO 2.30 IV, 1.17 A/E, -27% ROI
Class Risers 0.75 IV, 0.77 A/E, -74% ROI

Same Jockey as LTO 1.92 IV, 1.26 A/E, -40% ROI
Different Jockey to LTO 0.24 IV, 0.28 A/E, -88% ROI

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It all points to the worthy favourite Dawn Approach.

Libertarian for the place with Ruler Of The World to show.

[Bennie]

Flatstats- thanks for all the info. Missed todays races due to time frame but will try to paly tomorrow. Not sure if it is available on NJBets as I saw no listing for Epsom on their menu. Might turn out to be a mute point, but going to take a shot with Ruler of the World if odds are good and maybe box with Dawn in an exacta.

[flatstats]

Hope you were on

1st Ruler Of The World 7/1 SP, 7.16/1 Betfair SP
2nd Libertarian 14/1 SP, 15.91/1 Betfair SP
3rd Galileo Rock 25/1 SP, 24.11/1 Betfair SP

Exacta £65.40 to a £1 stake

[Bennie]

Flatstats- I was on line plenty early to make sure I didn't miss the opportunity to play but unfortunately I could not play on NJBets and had to read about what could have been. Would have covered all the later bets I made and then some. Everything else would have been icing on the cake. I appreciate your info and maybe some where down the line some of these foreign races will be covered by NJBets .