Keys II

[BlueChip@DRF]

Favorites usually win 33% of the time - or so I heard. If that's the case, then if you bet on all favorites, you will lose 67% of the time, and the favorite's odds (which are normally less than 2/1) would be unable to cover that percentage of losses. Those odds are usually covered by long shots. But what if there was a way to zero in on the majority of the 33% winners and avoid most of the 67% losers? I think I may have stumbled into something that would help zero in on the 33% winners only. Nothing is perfect but I will give it a shot.

The main part is that it has to be a dry/fast track, even if it is an all-weather track there can be no precipitation.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Keys for Monday, May 27th
HOL 8::5: Super Ability
LAD 8::8: Summerstar Bird
________________________
Turf Plays: these will be kept separately as they require a different set of calculations
GGX 8::5: Lord's Minister (turf)
MTH 10::8: Bella Castani (turf)

[BlueChip@DRF]

Keys for Monday, May 27th
HOL 8::5: Super Ability
LAD 8::8: Summerstar Bird
________________________
Turf Plays: these will be kept separately as they require a different set of calculations
GGX 8::5: Lord's Minister (turf)
MTH 10::8: Bella Castani (turf)

Not a good start. I will have the results up later. I will add a HOL/WEE (holiday/weekend) category as well. Looking at the old spreadsheet, it does well on normal weekdays.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Keys for Monday, May 27th (results)
HOL 8::5: Super Ability (2nd)
LAD 8::8: Summerstar Bird (3rd)
________________________
Turf:
GGX 8::5: Lord's Minister (SCR)
MTH 10::8: Bella Castani (7th)

Dirt/AW: 2-0-1-1
(Turf): 1-0-0-0

One bad result does not equal an absolute result. I will see if I can get this thread to 100 samples of each dirt/AW and turf. Two down apiece, ninety-eight times two to go....

[BlueChip@DRF]

Keys for Wednesday, May 29th

DEL 1::7: Avarice


==================

After going over the records once more, sloppy tracks are acceptable. It was distance I was miscalculating. And I think I will definitely stay away from turf unless it is a pet angle I use such as Prado/Motion or Napravnik on an import.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Keys for Wednesday, May 29th

DEL 1::7: Avarice (4th)

Whoops! *he he* missed something.

As of 5/29
Dirt/AW: 3-0-1-1
(Turf): 1-0-0-0

No worries. Things will pick up soon enough.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Keys for Thursday, May 30th

BEL 2::3: Poised to a Tee
BEL 3::5: Chrisandthecapper
BEL 8::8: Tabreed(GB)

[BlueChip@DRF]

Keys for Thursday, May 30th (results)

BEL 2::3: Poised to a Tee (1st; $2.90)
BEL 3::5: Chrisandthecapper (5th)

Turf:
BEL 8::8: Tabreed(GB) (5th)


As of 5/30
Dirt/AW: 5-1-1-1
Turf: 2-0-0-0


WTF???? :mad: :bang:

[BlueChip@DRF]

Keys (or throw outs) for Friday, May 31st

HOL 2::3: Mr T Bird
CDX 3::7: Darkest Hour
GGX 6::1: Romance Is Sosa
WDB 3::3: Yellow Boat

[BlueChip@DRF]

Keys (or throw outs) for Friday, May 31st (results)

HOL 2::3: Mr T Bird (SCR)
CDX 3::7: Darkest Hour (3rd)
GGX 6::1: Romance Is Sosa (1st; $4.00)
WDB 3::3: Yellow Boat (1st; $2.90)

Today: 3-2-0-1

As of 5/31:
Dirt/AW: 8-3-1-2
Turf: 2-0-0-0

[Dave Schwartz]

If I understand correctly, you have done very well thus far. Your toss outs have gone 3/8 but if one had bet them the return would only have been $9.80 out of $16 wagered.

:ThmbUp:

That is what we strive for in picking non-contenders!

[BlueChip@DRF]

If I understand correctly, you have done very well thus far. Your toss outs have gone 3/8 but if one had bet them the return would only have been $9.80 out of $16 wagered.

:ThmbUp:

That is what we strive for in picking non-contenders!

I'm doing really bad so far. I'm aiming for a small sample of 100 dirt/AW races before I can conclude anything. I am compiling a chart with payoffs and other factors not given out in the thread. It also includes some past results I had in another thread. Its still in its experimental stage. I forgot I noted that Churchill and Belmont tracks were NO PLAY tracks. I should have put that at the top of my charts to remind me each time I post.

I appreciate the time for you to visit and post your thoughts. Please let me know if there are improvements I can make.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Keys for Saturday, June 1st

CBY 7::10: Moroccan Brew
HPX 8::5: Funny Face

[BlueChip@DRF]

Keys for Saturday, June 1st (partial result)

CBY 7::10: Moroccan Brew (3rd; poor start; assistant didn't help keep head straight or call it out; gave the field a 10-length head start)
HPX 8::5: Funny Face

Today: 1-0-0-1

As of 06-01
Dirt/AW: 9-3-1-3
Turf: 2-0-0-0

[BlueChip@DRF]

Keys for Saturday, June 1st (results)

CBY 7::10: Moroccan Brew (3rd; poor start; assistant didn't help keep head straight or call it out; gave the field a 10-length head start)
HPX 8::5: Funny Face [2nd]

Today: 2-0-1-1

As of 06-01
Dirt/AW: 10-3-2-3
Turf: 2-0-0-0

[BlueChip@DRF]

Keys (or throwouts) for Sunday, June 2nd

CBY 2::4:
CBY 7::7:
EMD 5::5:
WDB 3::3:

[Bennie]

Bluechip- not to ever question your selections but is the 7th at Canterbury correct? I only ask because of the 15-1 ML.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Bluechip- not to ever question your selections but is the 7th at Canterbury correct? I only ask because of the 15-1 ML.

Yikes! You're right! I usually put the name next to the program number. I will correct it in a bit. Thanks for the heads up! :faint:

I thought I typed them out already, but I must have entered them on my spreadsheet first and then retyped them over here. Yeah, that bomb is not the theme of this thread. :eek:


Keys (or throwouts) for Sunday, June 2nd (CORRECTED)

CBY 2::4: Awesome Year
CBY 7::2: Bourbon County
EMD 5::5: Risky Road
WDB 3::3: Essence Hit Man

[BlueChip@DRF]

Keys (or throwouts) for Sunday, June 2nd (CORRECTED)[results]

CBY 2::4: Awesome Year (1st; $2.80)
CBY 7::2: Bourbon County (1st; $2.40)
EMD 5::5: Risky Road (1st; $4.00)
WDB 3::3: Essence Hit Man (2nd)

Today: 4-3-1-0

============
As of 6/02
Dirt/AW: 14-6-3-3
Turf: 2-0-0-0

Was a long head from a perfect score today....

But getting there.....

[Bennie]

Bluechip- better results today. I actually took a flyer on the 7th at Canterbury since I noticed that you posted the 7 horse by mistake and made mention of it. I boxed the 2-7 exacta just because and almost came home a winner. Got 1st and 3rd. It made me take notice as to who did run second. The 5 and 7 were the 2 longest ML odds horses and with the fav the exacta came back like $51. I went back and checked your 14 races/ 6 winners and if you took the 2 longest ML odds horses underneath you would have hit 3 exactas. Doesn't sound like much but with the favorites winning the 3 exactas came back at $48, $51 and $50 on a $2 bet. Wagering $4 per race/ 14 races cost was $56 and the return was $149. Going to track this just to see what becomes.

[BlueChip@DRF]

This was the main idea of my first "keys" thread:

Actually, now looking at the low-priced contenders I was putting out there in previous threads, it would be better off if they were used as keys in multi-race exotics. So from this point on I will just give key horses to single out. A sizeable Place bet only if playing just the one race would be my only personal suggestion. The rest (Doubles, Pick-3s/4s, Exactas, Trifectas, Supers,....) I will leave in the capable hands of you, the real handicapper....

Nice hits if bombs can hook up with the chalk like today. What were they, the 2nd longest shots in the exacta spot?

If one out of every three favorites win, then how to extract which one of the three every time and exclude the other two to increase my chances? I'm aiming for at least a sample size of at least 100 and then keep going from there. Maybe get it up to 500 or even 1000. Small steps.... Small steps.... :)

[Bennie]

The 3 hits were using your selection with the 2(two) longest ML odds horses in the race for 2nd.
Friday would be 3rd Woodbine the 3 horse with the 2 (20-1)ML and the 7 (15-1)ML. Straight exactas 3 with 2,7. That one paid $48.(3-7)
Today was 7th CBY the 2 with the 5 (20-1)ML and the 4,7,8 were all (15-1) but I would use the 7 because we spoke of it but it would not matter as it came 2-5 and paid $51. That race it actually came 2-5-7-8, your pick with 3 of the longest ML odds horses. And the 5th at EMD was the 5 with 1 (15-1)ML and 4 (10-1)ML. Came 5-1 for $50.
I actually play action bets like this from time to time when there is a really short priced horse that I can't play because of the odds but might throw the chalk with the 2 longest horses on the board in an exacta just to have interest in the race.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Interesting.... I might have to go back and check the charts see how often these favorites come in keyed with the two longest shots (K over L1,L2). Might be useful. :)

[Bennie]

I am hoping that it isn't just an occasional hit and miss but only time will tell. Turning a 3/5 horse into a 25-1 payout, you don't have to hit too many. I also like the fact you usually only have a handful of races from day to day. Can't get hurt playing around a little. Good luck with your picks. I'll be watching and taking notes.

[BlueChip@DRF]

I am hoping that it isn't just an occasional hit and miss but only time will tell. Turning a 3/5 horse into a 25-1 payout, you don't have to hit too many. I also like the fact you usually only have a handful of races from day to day. Can't get hurt playing around a little. Good luck with your picks. I'll be watching and taking notes.

This is what I didn't think about when I first started the "keys". I was looking for a high percentage play without regard for odds. This was my first concern. Now you have made me aware that there could be situations where certain bombs could be combined with the key horse. To hit a payout of 25-1 once out of every five times is certainly doable. Plays would be scarce but the payoffs would be tremendous. Now I would have to go back to the charts and check the race distances, class, track surfaces and conditions, the number of entries, and scrutinize the situation the bombs were entering and probably what pace scenario played out. But hey, I'm not afraid to burn the midnight oil to find a small nugget of information. :)

[Bennie]

Bluechip- was thinking myself if the chances of hitting some of these would be more focused on the smaller tracks and not so much ones like Belmont, Churchill and Hollywood. Something I will be keeping an eye on.

[BlueChip@DRF]

I agree. That's why I in the beginning of this thread I forgot to throw out Belmont and Churchill. I guess I will throw out Hollywood, too.

[BlueChip@DRF]

============
As of 6/02
Dirt/AW: 14-6-3-3
Turf: 2-0-0-0



Key Throwouts for Thursday, June 6th :)

GGX 2::5: Titian

[BlueChip@DRF]

Key Throwouts for Thursday, June 6th :)

GGX 2::5: Titian (2nd) Goddammit! :mad: :bang:

=======
As of 6/06
Dirt/AW: 15-6-4-3
Turf: 2-0-0-0

[BlueChip@DRF]

Keys for Friday, June 7th

WDB 3::3: Jade Dragon

=======
As of 6/06
Dirt/AW: 15-6-4-3
Turf: 2-0-0-0

[Bennie]

Bluechip - I missed today's play, saw it ran 2nd, and won't be home in time for the play tomorrow at Woodbine but looking at the entries if I were able to play I would use the 7(20-1) horse with the 3. Not just for the longshot odds we have talked about but also one of my pet plays is blinkers-off on the 7. Not to encourage anyone but 3-7 exacta box would be my play. Good luck.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Sounds like a good 'numbers' play as well. :)

[BlueChip@DRF]

Keys for Friday, June 7th

WDB 3::3: Jade Dragon (1st, $2.90)

=======
As of 6/07
Dirt/AW: 16-7-4-3
Turf: 2-0-0-0

[BlueChip@DRF]

Back to business....

Keys for Thursday, June 13th

GGX 2::7: Giannonatti (AW)
LAD 2::1: Drinking Fund (turf)


=======
As of 6/07
Dirt/AW: 16-7-4-3
Turf: 2-0-0-0

[BlueChip@DRF]

Back to business....

Keys for Thursday, June 13th

GGX 2::7: Giannonatti (AW)
LAD 2::1: Drinking Fund (turf)


GGX 2::7: Giannonatti (AW) (2nd)
LAD 2::1: Drinking Fund (turf) (1st, $2.40)

=======
As of 6/13
Dirt/AW: 17-7-5-3
Turf: 3-1-0-0

[BlueChip@DRF]

Keys for Friday, June 14th

HOL::2: Paynter
LAD 3::2: Real Trick
WDB 3::1::1a: Scipio/Fiaker - entry

=======
As of 6/13
Dirt/AW: 17-7-5-3
Turf: 3-1-0-0

[BlueChip@DRF]

Keys for Friday, June 14th

HOL::2: Paynter
LAD 3::2: Real Trick
WDB 3::1::1a: Scipio/Fiaker - entry



HOL::2: Paynter (1st, $2.80)
LAD 3::2: Real Trick (1st, $2.80)
WDB 3::1::1a: Scipio/Fiaker - entry (2nd)

=======
As of 6/14
Dirt/AW: 20-9-6-3
Turf: 3-1-0-0

[BlueChip@DRF]

Keys for Saturday, June 15th

CBY 2::5: Schillerthekiller
EMD 9::8: All My Friends

=======
As of 6/14
Dirt/AW: 20-9-6-3
Turf: 3-1-0-0

[BlueChip@DRF]

Keys for Saturday, June 15th

CBY 2::5: Schillerthekiller
EMD 9::8: All My Friends


CBY 2::5: Schillerthekiller (4th)
EMD 9::8: All My Friends (1st, $2.60)

=======
As of 6/15
Dirt/AW: 22-10-6-3
Turf: 3-1-0-0

[BlueChip@DRF]

Keys for Sunday, June 16th

HOL 1::5: Ranulf
CBY 7::9: Heliskier

=======
As of 6/15
Dirt/AW: 22-10-6-3
Turf: 3-1-0-0

[BlueChip@DRF]

Keys for Sunday, June 16th

HOL 1::5: Ranulf
CBY 7::9: Heliskier



HOL 1::5: Ranulf (1st, $2.60)
CBY 7::9: Heliskier (9th, bad stumble at start and lost all chance)

=======
As of 6/16
Dirt/AW: 23-11-6-3
Turf: 3-1-0-0

[BlueChip@DRF]

Keys for Saturday, June 22nd

HOL 2::7: Lanida
EMD 7::5: I Keep Saying
HST 2::6: Raising Memo
LAD 1::1: Cajun Maid
MTH 9::5: Doctor Chit

=======
As of 6/16
Dirt/AW: 23-11-6-3
Turf: 3-1-0-0

[BlueChip@DRF]

Keys for Saturday, June 22nd

HOL 2::7: Lanida
EMD 7::5: I Keep Saying
HST 2::6: Raising Memo
LAD 1::1: Cajun Maid
MTH 9::5: Doctor Chit


HOL 2::7: Lanida (1st, $2.80)
EMD 7::5: I Keep Saying (1st, $3.20)
HST 2::6: Raising Memo (3rd)
LAD 1::1: Cajun Maid (1st, $3.60)
MTH 9::5: Doctor Chit (2nd)

5-3-1-1

=======
As of 6/22
Dirt/AW: 28-14-7-4
Turf: 3-1-0-0

[BlueChip@DRF]

Keys for Sunday, June 23rd

HOL 2::3: Zuzu's Petals
EMD 6::8: Glorious Valentine
EMD 10::5: Starlight Gem
HST 8::2: Hockley

=======
As of 6/22
Dirt/AW: 28-14-7-4
Turf: 3-1-0-0

[BlueChip@DRF]

Keys for Sunday, June 23rd

HOL 2::3: Zuzu's Petals
EMD 6::8: Glorious Valentine
EMD 10::5: Starlight Gem
HST 8::2: Hockley


HOL 2::3: Zuzu's Petals (2nd)
EMD 6::8: Glorious Valentine (1st, $4.00)
EMD 10::5: Starlight Gem (1st, $4.20)
HST 8::2: Hockley (1st, $3.90)

4-3-1-0

=======
As of 6/23
Dirt/AW: 32-17-8-4 (W:53% P:78% ITM:90.6%)
Turf: 3-1-0-0

[BlueChip@DRF]

Keys for Tuesday, June 25th

GPX 7::1: Runyon Humor

=======
As of 6/23
Dirt/AW: 32-17-8-4
Turf: 3-1-0-0

[BlueChip@DRF]

Keys for Tuesday, June 25th

GPX 7::1: Runyon Humor


GPX 7::1: Runyon Humor (SCRATCHED)

=======
As of 6/23
Dirt/AW: 32-17-8-4
Turf: 3-1-0-0

[BlueChip@DRF]

Keys for Friday, June 28th

MTH::3: Mrs. Sinatra


=======
As of 6/23
Dirt/AW: 32-17-8-4
Turf: 3-1-0-0

[BlueChip@DRF]

Keys for Friday, June 28th

MTH::3: Mrs. Sinatra


MTH 3::3: Mrs. Sinatra (dead last; eesh!)


=======
As of 6/28
Dirt/AW: 33-17-8-4
Turf: 3-1-0-0

[BlueChip@DRF]

Keys for Thursday, July 4th

CBY 4: :4: Bourbon County
EMD 10: :4: Ducoti

=======
As of 6/28
Dirt/AW: 33-17-8-4
Turf: 3-1-0-0

[BlueChip@DRF]

Keys for Thursday, July 4th

CBY 4: :4: Bourbon County
EMD 10: :4: Ducoti



CBY 4: :4: Bourbon County (2nd)
EMD 10: :4: Ducoti (1st, $3.60)

=======
As of 07/04
Dirt/AW: 35-18-9-4
Turf: 3-1-0-0

[BlueChip@DRF]

Keys for Friday, July 5th

HOL 2::2: Four Better
CBY 6::1: Sputney's Cabin

=======
As of 07/04
Dirt/AW: 35-18-9-4
Turf: 3-1-0-0

[BlueChip@DRF]

Keys for Friday, July 5th

HOL 2::2: Four Better
CBY 6::1: Sputney's Cabin


HOL 2::2: Four Better (scratched)
CBY 6::1: Sputney's Cabin (1st, $3.60)

=======
As of 07/05
Dirt/AW: 36-19-9-4
Turf: 3-1-0-0

[BlueChip@DRF]

Keys for Saturday, July 6th

HOL 5::3: Schiaparelli (turf)
HOL 9::2: Game On Dude
EMD 4::5: Memphis Mobster
EMD 9::3: Snooper Dauper
HST 1::7: Cherokee Tear

=======
As of 07/05
Dirt/AW: 36-19-9-4
Turf: 3-1-0-0

[cordep17]

50% winners is still probably not good to be profitable, I don't think.

Are you up or down?

Im curious in finding out whether laddering your picks would be more profitable

$2 Win $4 Place and $8 Show

[BlueChip@DRF]

50% winners is still probably not good to be profitable, I don't think.

Are you up or down?

Im curious in finding out whether laddering your picks would be more profitable

$2 Win $4 Place and $8 Show

There is more to it than that. What I am trying to zero in on is the winning 33% favorites. If they win one-third of the time, then I am going to concentrate on those and figure out which 33% of the time makes for the most ideal conditions. These are supposed to be singles in exotics like exactas, tris, Pick-3s/4s/6s. This is a small sample and I am trying to accumulate 100 and then keep going to see if I can maybe reach at least 1000 as a small sample size. I'm also keeping a chart of track location, distance, surface, class, sex, and race comments to see where the best percentages are. I am also keeping a detailed chart of when they finish 2nd and specifically the type of horse, conditions, class, impost, and odds they got beat.

These keys are invariably too low to be played straight up.

[BlueChip@DRF]

But there are times you might get above even money and I am keeping track of that too along with field size.

[cordep17]

Cool Cool
It seems pretty simple that if the favorites only win 33% or the time, they are misinterpreted to be the most likely winner most of the other 67% of races with exceptions to just bad luck.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Keys for Saturday, July 6th

HOL 5::3: Schiaparelli (turf)
HOL 9::2: Game On Dude
EMD 4::5: Memphis Mobster
EMD 9::3: Snooper Dauper
HST 1::7: Cherokee Tear



HOL 5::3: Schiaparelli (turf) (1st, $4.20)
HOL 9::2: Game On Dude (1st, $2.60)
EMD 4::5: Memphis Mobster (2nd)
EMD 9::3: Snooper Dauper (3rd)
HST 1::7: Cherokee Tear (1st, $3.60)

5-3-1-1

=======
As of 07/06
Dirt/AW: 41-21-10-5
Turf: 4-2-0-0

[BlueChip@DRF]

Keys for Saturday, July 13

EMD 7::4: All The Rage
EMD 9::5: Max Cooper
EMD 10::1: Untilifindyou
LAD 4::7: Flashaholic

=======
As of 07/06
Dirt/AW: 41-21-10-5
Turf: 4-2-0-0

[BlueChip@DRF]

Keys for Saturday, July 13

EMD 7::4: All The Rage
EMD 9::5: Max Cooper
EMD 10::1: Untilifindyou
LAD 4::7: Flashaholic


EMD 7::4: All The Rage (1st, $3.20)
EMD 9::5: Max Cooper (1st, $2.80)
EMD 10::1: Untilifindyou (2nd)
LAD 4::7: Flashaholic (3rd)

4-2-1-1
=======
As of 07/13
Dirt/AW: 45-23-11-6
Turf: 4-2-0-0

[BlueChip@DRF]

Back to business....

EMD 5::2: Surfliner

=======
As of 07/13
Dirt/AW: 45-23-11-6
Turf: 4-2-0-0

[BlueChip@DRF]

Back to business....

EMD 5::2: Surfliner


EMD 5::2: Surfliner (1st, $2.40)

=======
As of 07/28
Dirt/AW: 46-24-11-6
Turf: 4-2-0-0

[BlueChip@DRF]

09/02

GGX 8(T)::3: Mr.Make Believe

=======
As of 07/28
Dirt/AW: 46-24-11-6
Turf: 4-2-0-0

[BlueChip@DRF]

09/02

GGX 8(T)::3: Mr.Make Believe


GGX 8(T)::3: Mr.Make Believe (9th/9) WTF???? "Saved ground, stopped after six furlongs"

=======
As of 09/02
Dirt/AW: 46-24-11-6
Turf: 5-2-0-0

[senortout]

BlueChip, I didn't follow along your thread that closely but $$$ wise, how'd it turn out? I see your in the money did quite well, but did the win prices pay their way, so to speak?