Is PaceAdvantage contributing to horse's detriment?

[Capper Al]

This proposition is brought to you in a mannor like some of our political bloggers do here.

Narrowing the argument down to the bullets:


Pace analysis works better on dirt tracks vs poly tracks.
Expert handicappers are more likely to use pace analysis than casual race fans.
Expert handicapers support returning to dirt surfaces.
More statistics still support that poly tracks are safer for both jockeys and horses.
PaceAdvantage supports pace handicapping.
Therefore, PaceAdvantage is contributing to both jockeys and horses detriment.


Like with what our political bloggers post, I don't believe this assertion either.

[Greyfox]

This proposition is brought to you in a mannor like some of our political bloggers do here.

Narrowing the argument down to the bullets:


Pace analysis works better on dirt tracks vs poly tracks.
Expert handicappers are more likely to use pace analysis than casual race fans.
Expert handicapers support returning to dirt surfaces.
More statistics still support that poly tracks are safer for both jockeys and horses.
PaceAdvantage supports pace handicapping.
Therefore, PaceAdvantage is contributing to both jockeys and horses detriment.

Like with what our political bloggers post, I don't believe this assertion either.

What garbled logic. Aristotle would throw you out of his school.
For starters premises #1 and #3 depends on who you are talking to.
Pace handicapping works just fine on poly as far as I'm concerned. You just have to bet less early speed runners and find pressers that can overtake the pace.

Beyond telling you that, I think that your attempt at applying logic is seriously lacking.

[Magister Ludi]

This proposition is brought to you in a mannor like some of our political bloggers do here.

Narrowing the argument down to the bullets:








Pace analysis works better on dirt tracks vs poly tracks.



Expert handicappers are more likely to use pace analysis than casual race fans.



Expert handicapers support returning to dirt surfaces.



More statistics still support that poly tracks are safer for both jockeys and horses.



PaceAdvantage supports pace handicapping.



Therefore, PaceAdvantage is contributing to both jockeys and horses detriment.
Like with what our political bloggers post, I don't believe this assertion either.


Your colon is full of crap.
Your colon is part of you.
Therefore, you are full of crap.

[Augenj]

This proposition is brought to you in a mannor like some of our political bloggers do here.

Narrowing the argument down to the bullets:


Pace analysis works better on dirt tracks vs poly tracks.
Expert handicappers are more likely to use pace analysis than casual race fans.
Expert handicapers support returning to dirt surfaces.
More statistics still support that poly tracks are safer for both jockeys and horses.
PaceAdvantage supports pace handicapping.
Therefore, PaceAdvantage is contributing to both jockeys and horses detriment.


Like with what our political bloggers post, I don't believe this assertion either.
I got the joke but others didn't, I reckon.

[Greyfox]

I got the joke but others didn't, I reckon.

We know that capper al said he didn't believe it either.
Unfortunately, you've given him an escape route by saying it was a joke.

[Augenj]

We know that capper al said he didn't believe it either.
Unfortunately, you've given him an escape route by saying it was a joke.
Well, being a newcomer here, it looked like a joke. However, in the future I'll remember that convoluted logic if I ever want to justify some outrageous statement. :)

[Capper Al]

Well, being a newcomer here, it looked like a joke. However, in the future I'll remember that convoluted logic if I ever want to justify some outrageous statement. :)

It was a spoof. I'm glad you got it. Note the replies that you read. It shows who they really are.

[CincyHorseplayer]

The fact that we exist.There is no negativity generated by us.

[Capper Al]

What garbled logic. Aristotle would throw you out of his school.
For starters premises #1 and #3 depends on who you are talking to.
Pace handicapping works just fine on poly as far as I'm concerned. You just have to bet less early speed runners and find pressers that can overtake the pace.

Beyond telling you that, I think that your attempt at applying logic is seriously lacking.

Pace is much more difficult to gain an edge over the casual player on poly than on dirt. I'll bet you knew this but didn't care about the truth just want to defend your fellow political bloggers. You pretty much stated that in your reply to the post that saw the humor.

[Greyfox]

Pace is much more difficult to gain an edge over the casual player on poly than on dirt. I'll bet you knew this but didn't care about the truth just want to defend your fellow political bloggers. You pretty much stated that in your reply to the post that saw the humor.

Right!:rolleyes:

[cj]

Pace is much more difficult to gain an edge over the casual player on poly than on dirt.

I'm not getting into the other stuff, but I disagree with the above.

[PaceAdvantage]

It was a spoof. I'm glad you got it. Note the replies that you read. It shows who they really are.You really seem to be taking a lot of things personally the past 6 months or so...sorry you seem to be so affected by what goes on in off-topic.

[Capper Al]

I'm not getting into the other stuff, but I disagree with the above.

Are you saying that your indicators flag hidden pace attributes on poly as easily as early speed on dirt? I find poly similar to turf, average pace and last quarter. Straight out speed figures work better on poly because of this.

[Capper Al]

You really seem to be taking a lot of things personally the past 6 months or so...sorry you seem to be so affected by what goes on in off-topic.

Just note that I didn't differentiate between left or right in my original post, yet the right attacked. There's a message in that.

[woodtoo]

holy Mcrolly:faint:is this all really a dream:eek:or did someone spike my coffeh:p

[cj]

Are you saying that your indicators flag hidden pace attributes on poly as easily as early speed on dirt? I find poly similar to turf, average pace and last quarter. Straight out speed figures work better on poly because of this.

Well, now you changed "pace" to "early speed". Big difference.

[Grits]

For one who touted as though he had the handicapping/horseplaying world by the tail until you posted this little blurb--I'm sorry--you've done nothing but lay blame to other areas for your nose dive since March 17th. This has gone on and on. I've not posted in awhile, but, have read a great deal. ..... You think too much, and too long, not too mention, you really whine a lot for a grown man. :confused:


I've shaken it off yet. I'm still in it. The biggest one I ever had. What's gone wrong? First success. I moved up from a mini roller to a low roller. When I did this I had a losing streak. Then I changed my playing style out of desperation this weekend. Had I kept my old methods, I would have been out of it and probably recouped my losses. (If my Aunt had balls, she'd be my Uncle.) Other mistakes, and those of you who are developers would know, I found some new ways of looking at the game. Bang into production. No time for real testing just play. It killed me. The stuff I found is good, but knowing how and when to use it is another thing. Do these pitfalls sound familiar? The cure hopefully will be as follows:

Next weekend no wagering.
Gather more stats on new system
Go for a synthesis between the newly found stuff and the old winning ways.
Back to basics on wagering.

[Capper Al]

Well, now you changed "pace" to "early speed". Big difference.

How do you see it?

[Capper Al]

Gritts,

I did well for four years straight. I ran into trouble moving up from a mini to a low roller. I did recoup for a while, but am still struggling. I tell it as it is. I wish I could say that the track is my personal ATM machine, but I can't. Have you done better? Are you open about your ups and downs? The way I see it, handicapping is a journey. We'll rarely know where we'll end up next.

[Capper Al]

Your colon is full of crap.
Your colon is part of you.
Therefore, you are full of crap.

Brilliant!

[cj]

How do you see it?

Pace can be any part of the race to me, not just early. Surely you have heard of people that use "late pace", "turn times", etc. They are all pace handicapping in my book.

[Robert Goren]

There is no shortage of posters here who have said they hate poly tracks.

[cj]

There is no shortage of posters here who have said they hate poly tracks.

Is there a shortage of those that have said they love them? I seem to remember many.

[Grits]

No. Anyone that says they do not struggle in this game--I figure that individual is not being truthful. Moderation is key in good times and in bad. But to constantly be searching to lay blame isn't acceptable. Keep looking inward--at least this would be my preference. Quietly going about one's own handicapping. Men have to talk, they can't help it. Women don't.

On the internet, I'm not open about a lot of things. Certainly not anymore. At some point we come to realize, no one really cares. Not at all. Too, in the same token, there's but so many handicapping debates one can have before it all becomes redundant, though, it does help new members who come to the game, and come here ... to learn a great deal. JMHO

Gritts,

I did well for four years straight. I ran into trouble moving up from a mini to a low roller. I did recoup for a while, but am still struggling. I tell it as it is. I wish I could say that the track is my personal ATM machine, but I can't. Have you done better? Are you open about your ups and downs? The way I see it, handicapping is a journey. We'll rarely know where we'll end up next.

[CincyHorseplayer]

There is no shortage of posters here who have said they hate poly tracks.

There is no shortage of posters who tell the truth about the truth either!I know myself personally,can sleep better at night knowing you are in the know.:cool:

[PaceAdvantage]

Just note that I didn't differentiate between left or right in my original post, yet the right attacked. There's a message in that.What are you even talking about? Right, left? I couldn't even begin to tell you who is who when it comes to those who have replied...the fact that you feel the need to mention it proves you really are taking this stuff way too personally...

Do you count my reply as an attack? It was merely an observation...

[Capper Al]

What are you even talking about? Right, left? I couldn't even begin to tell you who is who when it comes to those who have replied...the fact that you feel the need to mention it proves you really are taking this stuff way too personally...

Do you count my reply as an attack? It was merely an observation...

Ask my fellow liberals if they didn't see the right attack and you defend them and blame me for my short comings. I should have my application back up soon. When I do, I have an idea that just might turn this whole situation around and make it fun for everyone and get us back together on horses

[Capper Al]

Pace can be any part of the race to me, not just early. Surely you have heard of people that use "late pace", "turn times", etc. They are all pace handicapping in my book.

I agree with your view. I was looking at easy of application, something a P&P capper could eyeball as a casual player. To me, sprints on dirt with early speed jump out of the racing forms while anything else on poly is hidden.

[PaceAdvantage]

Ask my fellow liberals if they didn't see the right attack and you defend them and blame me for my short comings. I should have my application back up soon. When I do, I have an idea that just might turn this whole situation around and make it fun for everyone and get us back together on horsesOn the horse side, there is no right or left. We are all together. That's what you fail to understand...and shockingly so...

Stop taking things so personally and just have fun again. You are looking for things that aren't there...

[Tom]

You are looking for things that aren't there...

....or are they? Nya-ha-ha!

[Capper Al]

On the horse side, there is no right or left. We are all together. That's what you fail to understand...and shockingly so...

Stop taking things so personally and just have fun again. You are looking for things that aren't there...

The fact is the forum bullies attacked. I don't care. You turn a blind eye to their actions and they know you do so they do it. I just at times get fed up with them so I say something back. Of course, in your eyes it's me because they are not doing anything. BTW, I beleive most cappers are right of center. It just seems to come with the territory. No big deal. You should rename your website to PaceAdvantage and Right Wing Propaganda.

[woodtoo]

The fact is the forum bullies attacked. I don't care. You turn a blind eye to their actions and they know you do so they do it. I just at times get fed up with them so I say something back. Of course, in your eyes it's me because they are not doing anything. BTW, I beleive most cappers are right of center. It just seems to come with the territory. No big deal. You should rename your website to PaceAdvantage and Right Wing Propaganda.

err...ummm......uh...just ....try and.......grow.................................... ..
























.........................................a pair..............:eek::eek:!

[PaceAdvantage]

The fact is the forum bullies attacked. I don't care. You turn a blind eye to their actions and they know you do so they do it. I just at times get fed up with them so I say something back. Of course, in your eyes it's me because they are not doing anything. BTW, I beleive most cappers are right of center. It just seems to come with the territory. No big deal. You should rename your website to PaceAdvantage and Right Wing Propaganda.Well, I guess this thread needs to be moved to off topic where it belongs. Then we can have a proper debate and not **** up things on the horse side, which is what your goal has been with this thread from the start I suppose...

[Greyfox]

The fact is the forum bullies attacked. I don't care.

In post 1 of this thread, there were two premises represented in "bullet" form which simply were flawed. They were:
1. Pace analysis works better on dirt tracks vs poly tracks.
3. Expert handicapers support returning to dirt surfaces.

The problem with both of these comments is they are overgeneralizations.
Personally, I as a handicapper, enjoy poly tracks more than dirt surfaces.
Some pace analysts may be struggling with poly tracks, many aren't.
Certainly race shape is a factor in using pace analysis on poly, perhaps even more so than on dirt.
Also late pace has to be given a higher prominence than it would be on dirt speed ovals such Santa Anita.
The bottom line though is that when any poster leads in with two premises which have questionable merit, that poster will draw responses pointing out the errors contained within.
Of interest, the poster who put up Post #1 even said that he didn't believe his conclusions about PA members contributing to horses and jockeys detriment. That poster didn't believe that because the gaps between the earlier premises and the final conclusion were too big of a leap to take.





You turn a blind eye to their actions and they know you do so they do it. I just at times get fed up with them so I say something back. Of course, in your eyes it's me because they are not doing anything. BTW, I beleive most cappers are right of center. It just seems to come with the territory. No big deal. You should rename your website to PaceAdvantage and Right Wing Propaganda.

Having posted a Post with flaws, you then mistakenly conclude, that the responses being received must be due to the fact that you are not a right winger.
That conclusion is absolutely wrong. Attacks of that nature definitely go on in the Off Topic section of this board.
The handicapping section is apolitical, except when someone like yourself wants to see right wingers behind every contribution that doesn't agree with your perspectives.
Finally, I would say "no one was bullied" in this thread.
A flawed post, that the Poster himself, er... you Capper Al didn't even believe, was responded to.
If we don't agree with what you are posting as the "truth," Capper Al, are we supposed to slap you on the back and act like "Yes men." Or do you want our true opinions?


Have a good day and hopefully you'll have some success at the track today.

Greyfox

[Robert Goren]

I think we need a poll on whether or not to do away with all poly tracks. I'd set up myself, but I don't know how. I tried it once and screw it up royally. So would someone who knows please do it. Thanks.

[PaceAdvantage]

Having posted a Post with flaws, you then mistakenly conclude, that the responses being received must be due to the fact that you are not a right winger.

The handicapping section is apolitical, except when someone like yourself wants to see right wingers behind every contribution that doesn't agree with your perspectives.
I was hoping at first that I was merely misinterpreting Capper Al, but your two sentences above sum up perfectly how his responses in this thread have come across to me. I find it pretty frustrating to have any sort of dialog with someone like this...and it's also kind of sad too...

He obviously doesn't want to take my advice or listen to a word I say, and that's fine, that's his right...but really Capper Al...chill the **** out....not everyone who responds to you and whom you consider to be right wing, is responding to you BECAUSE you are left and they are right...jeez...

[Greyfox]

I think we need a poll on whether or not to do away with all poly tracks. I'd set up myself, but I don't know how. I tried it once and screw it up royally. So would someone who knows please do it. Thanks.

Doesn't a business model already act as a poll of that nature?

If people don't like a product, they don't buy it. If horse players don't like poly they'll play other tracks.

Their feet and their wallets do the voting.

[Robert Goren]

I agree, handicapping is handicapping and politics is politics and it is best to keep them as separate as possible. I know sometimes when we delve in to business end of horse racing it is hard because it regulated by government and many politicians from both sides of the aisle are opposed to or for it (or part of the industry) although for different reasons.

[Robert Goren]

Doesn't a business model already act as a poll of that nature?

If people don't like a product, they don't buy it. If horse players don't like poly they'll play other tracks.

Their feet and their wallets do the voting. It does, but I a poll here would shows us the feeling of those who post here, which I thought was about 80% against poly tracks. After reading some of the post in this thread, I am beginning to wonder if I was correct in that assumption.
With several tracks think about getting rid of poly( SA already did) and only AQU thinking converting its inner to poly, I think the trend is away from poly. It tough to tell how bettors think from handle numbers because tracks do things to manipulate raw handle such as offering large discounts in the form of rebates to large bettors. Not all tracks offer the same discount from what I understand. Some tracks court high rollers more than others. I don't that is any great secret.

[thaskalos]

It does, but I a poll here would shows us the feeling of those who post here, which I thought was about 80% against poly tracks. After reading some of the post in this thread, I am beginning to wonder if I was correct in that assumption.
With several tracks think about getting rid of poly( SA already did) and only AQU thinking converting its inner to poly, I think the trend is away from poly. It tough to tell how bettors think from handle numbers because tracks do things to manipulate raw handle such as offering large discounts in the form of rebates to large bettors. Not all tracks offer the same discount from what I understand. Some tracks court high rollers more than others. I don't that is any great secret.

This is what most bettors think about "poly":

Many(most?) horses do not negotiate the two surfaces with equal proficiency...and that makes it a pain in the ass to compare horses who are coming off races from both those surfaces. The problem gets even worse when there are tracks in the same racing circuit that have both surfaces installed.

For example...here in Illinois, Hawthorne form is not believable when the horses move over to Arlington...and the same can be said about the Arlington form, when the horses head back to Hawthorne.

[Tom]

Woodbine is a good track to play.
I would not touch Keeneland with your money.
I would not touch Del Mar with a money-back guarantee.
Hollywood is just fine.

[Greyfox]

I would not touch Del Mar with a money-back guarantee.


Yikes!!
A money back-guarantee! :faint:
I'm in.
Good use of hyperbole though. ;)

[Capper Al]

This is what most bettors think about "poly":

Many(most?) horses do not negotiate the two surfaces with equal proficiency...and that makes it a pain in the ass to compare horses who are coming off races from both those surfaces. The problem gets even worse when there are tracks in the same racing circuit that have both surfaces installed.

For example...here in Illinois, Hawthorne form is not believable when the horses move over to Arlington...and the same can be said about the Arlington form, when the horses head back to Hawthorne.

Correct! The professional handicappers have a harder time pulling it over the casual player because of the different surfaces. No one seems to care that the poly tracks are safer for jockeys and horses. As always, it's all about money.

[cj]

Correct! The professional handicappers have a harder time pulling it over the casual player because of the different surfaces. No one seems to care that the poly tracks are safer for jockeys and horses. As always, it's all about money.

Except, of course, that nobody really knows if the synthetic tracks are safer. They are all very new, unlike the dirt tracks to which they are being compared.

I don't see how they can be considered safer for jockeys. The surfaces lead to racing in close quarters. When spills happen, that is not good for riders.

[Robert Goren]

Then there is the theory that a poly track merely postpones the breakdown for a few of races. That theory assumes some trainers will continue to race unsound horses until they break down.

[Capper Al]

The safety issue is still open for debate. Some say that the horses get pushed to the max on poly and run more races per year. But the major studies that I've seen still give the safety node to poly

[PaceAdvantage]

No one seems to care that the poly tracks are safer for jockeys and horses. As always, it's all about money.Is this another version of the "callous horseplayer" accusation? That's right up there with the "ignorant horseplayer" accusation...you know the one where supposed "knowledgeable horsey folk" poke fun at handicappers by questioning if they've ever stood even five feet from a live horse in their lifetime...

Need I remind you what cj so eloquently stated not too long ago? It's not the horseplayers who are sending horses to the slaughter house. It's the "knowledgeable" horsemen...the trainers and owners.

As usual, when it comes to the racing industry, we get something well short of scientific, peer reviewed studies when it comes to the safety issue of all weather surfaces, and what the real reasons might be behind the numbers.

But guys like you immediately jump the gun and claim handicappers who doubt the merits of AWS are greedy horseplayers who don't care about horses or jockeys and are merely concerned about cashing a bet...

And you know what? Cashing a bet is ALL horseplayers should be concerned with. The safety issue and well-being responsibility of horse and rider lies SQUARELY and SOLELY in the hands of track management, horse owners, trainers and jockeys. That's it. That's their responsibility.

If racing is too dangerous as is at a particular track, it is up to the above named parties to make it safer. The players have no duties or responsibility to make sure racing is safer. They will obviously have their concerns, but making sure racing is safer is not a part of the player's domain.

Horses and jockeys will continue to be injured and continue to be killed no matter what surface they run over. A non-hypocrite would not only abandon such a sport with such inherent and cruel realities, but would earnestly work to see its total and complete demise.

[thaskalos]

Correct! The professional handicappers have a harder time pulling it over the casual player because of the different surfaces. No one seems to care that the poly tracks are safer for jockeys and horses. As always, it's all about money.

I just can't understand you sometimes.

Greed dominates this game...as we see from the endless reports of heavily medicated horses who are sent to the starting gate on ailing limbs -- putting both horse and jockey in grave danger, all for the almighty dollar.

And you point an accusing finger at the horseplayer -- who has no control over any of this -- for having his own survival in this game as his number one concern?

Is there a more ridiculous argument than the one you are posing in this thread...with your suggestion -- even in jest -- that Paceadvantage is somehow contributing to the safety problems plaguing this game?

[rastajenk]

endless reports of heavily medicated horses who are sent to the starting gate on ailing limbs
Been hittin' the Hyperbole bottle again?

[Capper Al]

I just can't understand you sometimes.

Greed dominates this game...as we see from the endless reports of heavily medicated horses who are sent to the starting gate on ailing limbs -- putting both horse and jockey in grave danger, all for the almighty dollar.

And you point an accusing finger at the horseplayer -- who has no control over any of this -- for having his own survival in this game as his number one concern?

Is there a more ridiculous argument than the one you are posing in this thread...with your suggestion -- even in jest -- that Paceadvantage is somehow contributing to the safety problems plaguing this game?

1. This thread is a spoof on our political bloggers.
2. Yes, it is all about money. The tracks want to attract the wagering dollar. It appears that a lot of handicappers avoid wagering on poly tracks.

Is there a problem with this?

[thaskalos]

1. This thread is a spoof on our political bloggers.
2. Yes, it is all about money. The tracks want to attract the wagering dollar. It appears that a lot of handicappers avoid wagering on poly tracks.

Is there a problem with this?
Yes...the tracks want to attract the wagering dollar. They are in business to make money...and there is nothing wrong with that.

But the horseplayer has complete freedom to spend his money on whatever tracks he likes. If he doesn't like synthetic tracks and chooses to bet only on dirt...that's his business. He worries about things he can control...not about things that he has absolutely no say in. And the game's safety issues are completely outside his control.

The customer buys whatever he wants; he doesn't bite on everything that is pitched to him...

[thaskalos]

Been hittin' the Hyperbole bottle again?

If the horses are not sent to the gate on ailing limbs...then why the need for all those pain killers in the game?

[DeltaLover]

And you know what? Cashing a bet is ALL horseplayers should be concerned with. The safety issue and well-being responsibility of horse and rider lies SQUARELY and SOLELY in the hands of track management, horse owners, trainers and jockeys. That's it. That's their responsibility.

Boss nailed it here! :ThmbUp:

[Greyfox]

1. This thread is a spoof on our political bloggers.


You seem to have missed Mel Brooks Spoofing 101 course and the accompanying text:


http://i90.photobucket.com/albums/k269/frankgrazulis/dummies.png (http://www.google.ca/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=comedy+for+dummies&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=gejKJoHGYeSq7M&tbnid=ASHmDU4tesrSyM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.myspace.com%2Ffrankgrazulis&ei=N56nUaLfOcGsiALn54GoAg&bvm=bv.47244034,d.cGE&psig=AFQjCNHEJi49WX8tOrpx2BEexqJsLVrQTw&ust=1370025654594390)

[PhantomOnTour]

This thread is like that show Lost - I tried to follow along but don't have a clue WTF is happening or where this whole thing is going.

[Tom]

I'm waiting for a smoke monster or a polar bear.

[Capper Al]

You seem to have missed Mel Brooks Spoofing 101 course and the accompanying text:


http://i90.photobucket.com/albums/k269/frankgrazulis/dummies.png (http://www.google.ca/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=comedy+for+dummies&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=gejKJoHGYeSq7M&tbnid=ASHmDU4tesrSyM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.myspace.com%2Ffrankgrazulis&ei=N56nUaLfOcGsiALn54GoAg&bvm=bv.47244034,d.cGE&psig=AFQjCNHEJi49WX8tOrpx2BEexqJsLVrQTw&ust=1370025654594390)

Do you get it? :lol:

[Steve 'StatMan']

http://i90.photobucket.com/albums/k269/frankgrazulis/dummies.png (http://www.google.ca/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=comedy+for+dummies&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=gejKJoHGYeSq7M&tbnid=ASHmDU4tesrSyM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.myspace.com%2Ffrankgrazulis&ei=N56nUaLfOcGsiALn54GoAg&bvm=bv.47244034,d.cGE&psig=AFQjCNHEJi49WX8tOrpx2BEexqJsLVrQTw&ust=1370025654594390)

Two boobs walk into a bra.....

[098poi]

Two boobs walk into a bra.....


:lol: That's great!