Arapahole Musings

[johnhannibalsmith]

Now that I haven't a track to watch daily just for entertainment and the occasional desire to express a typically lousy opinion, I guess I'll make sure that I have somewhere to break the spell of boredom by beginning another thread for a track that nobody really cares about nor plays.

I spent that last couple of summers in Aurora at this joint and that was enough for me. Though I'm on summer vacation this year, I still can't bear not to watch and cheer on my favorites and root against my rivals. Okay, that's not entirely true, but it's close enough.

Anyway, opening day is a typical day at ArP - bad CO-bred maidens, one of the only available superfecta ($1 base min.) races inexplicably occurring in a goofy Arab race, some QH trials, and then one or two that if you had nothing better to do at all, you might convince yourself to make a $20 bet and hope you didn't cut your price in half.

Race number one is one of those great bottom maiden races that you quickly figure out are actually some of the more attractive betting races. Unfortunately, you then notice that at this time of the meet half of the field is trying to run off of two works after eight months off.

Still, with the no-running fit horses taking most of the money, you have to take something with a hint of value.

:4: Cracker Jack Kid has some talent - liked him before he ever ran, but he wasn't quite ready when he did and was in too tough. I thought that he'd be no lower than 4-1 in this spot, but as I look now, he's actually down to 5-2.

I guess the moral of that story is that the favorite which I expected by default to get crushed to odds-on 3-5 or something like that really isn't very good.

Probably a no way to bet sort of race at the price on Cracker Jack, but for the heck of it:

$5 tri 4,7 - 4,6,7 = $20

Yipppeee!!!

[johnhannibalsmith]

I'm rusty, I'm rusty...

Cracker Jack ran well indeed, and came up short off the bench indeed, so that part went just as expected with him leading to the sixteenth before being gobbled up by the 1-2 favorite of "owner" WL the Big Hawk Mehok's Kathleen's Touch to break the maiden in his 247th start or thereabouts.

I had that part right, but got a little silly by using only the six in the underneath spot and he ended up coming up just short of getting third to finish off the trifecta. I just barely thought that he was better than the others and as it turned out, the trifecta paid $93 with the two super logical buggers running 1-2 in the more logical of the two sequences. I forget you can actually play a race like that and key two up top and wheel the third spot in a race like that and come out okay a lot of the time. Even the $12 exacta and $6.80 quinella were both really a gift there.

Okay, okay...

ARABS!!!

I actually got to where I could cash tickets betting these silly races where you get full fields and only three owners and four trainers sending out the whole field. For me, it seemed half the battle in betting these guys was to analyze connections - which one is trained by the right trainer for the owner and then has this jock instead of that jock... that sort of nonsense.

Now, I generally wouldn't play these things unless I loved one for some reason or there was something getting bet off the board for not nearly a good enough reason and the others were ridiculously nice prices.

I expected when I looked early at the entries that I would blindly select the :4: here just because Scott Powell is the trainer. He brought a few last year for a couple of stakes and his were much the best. This thing is 1-9 on the board.

I have no idea what happened to Matthew Glover and the queen bee of year's past, Elizabeth Brand, but I see that we have three in here owned by a Teutsch. The :1: , :9: , and :10: are all Teutsch bred and owned, so they automatically get thrown in the mix.

Then, Travis Wales' mount gets an auto-nod because these things are his bread and butter given the fact that they like someone that just sprawls out like a lump and sit there, with little to no stick or energy in general. So the :7: makes the cut.

Just noticed the nine is scratched, so that makes this mythical play even more basic.

Let's try this routine:

$1 tri 4 - 1,7,10 = $6
$1 tri 4 - 1,7,10 - ALL = $18

$1 super-duper 4 - 1,7,10 = $6

Now, remember with the super-duper - you can play these things for a few beans like that and miss it and still take down the pool. Yes, you heard right, since they seem to love to card the Arabs in the rare super slot, and there's no handle, and these things barely make any sense - about half of all winning super pays are consolations. Often, if you select the one-two finishers in a superfecta combo, you have a winning ticket. Please HOLD ALL TICKETS until the race has been declared o-fish-hell.

What a hoot... ARABS!!!

[garyscpa]

Sounds like you are having fun on your vacation.






:ThmbUp:

[johnhannibalsmith]

Other than the winner, I nailed it! :D Friggin' Barrrrajas...

Yep, think they ran just perfectly if you ignore the horse that actually crossed the wire first, the five, who I think was about the longest shot on the board for Kenny Massey. Yes, Kenny Massey. I think that may be the first time I've ever actually seen a Massey winner... so yeah, not gonna pretend like I shoulda coulda woulda there.

Okay. About time we had an exciting CO-bred maiden race. I mean, geeez, we're three races into the meet.

I fully expect that :10: Busta Twist will take some money nearing post time and end up as the odds-on favorite. As much as I'd love to build a big old case against him as a bit of a nut job, an underachiever, and the fact that good old Doug Grinolds just isn't the cagey old trainer that he was in years past - I don't think there's anything to justify doing that here. I'd like to think he'll need one, but it looks like he's been up in Utah probably with Kid Wonder Barrow getting him ready, which means he's probably ready enough if he shows up.

:4: Mile Hi Mojo takes a bunch of early money for Cowboy Vaugh Long. Vaughn's horses always seem to take some ridiculous early money and occasionally they stumble in first, but generally speaking, they are way overbet.

:7: One Storm is one I sorta like at huge odds - about 67-1 right now - because he's fast from the gate, but he'll be a shocker to be fit enough to run more than a half-mile without packing it in.

Problem is, there isn't exactly much in the way of dead-fit stone runners in here. Even though Butch Gleason could usually be tossed the first few weeks as his got fit, last season they showed up ready to roll - well, at least a lot tighter than they had been in years past. I guess that means you sort of have to give :2: Humble Rumble the benefit of the doubt as the one to key under the favorite.

Okay, let's try to get something right here.

$1 tri: 10-2-ALL = $9
$1 tri: 10-ALL -2 =$9

$4 exacta: 10 - 2,7 = $8
$4 exacta: 10-2 = $4

I just shipped thirty imaginary dollars at this mess. :eek:

[johnhannibalsmith]

Sounds like you are having fun on your vacation.






:ThmbUp:

:D

Trying to! Bored already... as you can plainly see...

[wiffleball whizz]

Just watched my first ever race at this track and it was a strung out group:...the 1/2 got a ride that looked like the jock did whatever he could have done to get best......

Maybe there's value there I gotta look!!!!

[lamboguy]

this is my favorite track in the universe. i already cashed the first 2 races there.

race 4 8/4

race 7 7/5

race 9 12

[johnhannibalsmith]

...
:7: One Storm is one I sorta like at huge odds - about 67-1 right now - because he's fast from the gate, but he'll be a shocker to be fit enough to run more than a half-mile without packing it in....

Fer the luva gawd...

One more breeze or a little less banging around and he hangs on for second here... might have even lost the photo for third... I guess that would be preferably to having him finish third and then have me regretting keying the two under the winner instead of him for what would probably be a solid trifectamundo.

Oh heck, we have an inquiry against the runner-up for the bumping... maybe my seven will move up for second if he got the show photo... or maybe he'll get moved into third and really cheese me off for opting for the two over him in the tri... :D

Alright, while these guys inquire, I'll glance at the fourth for some reason.

Oh the show photo came up... figures, the seven did run third, my seven is getting moved up...

Why didn't I use him in the tri dang it all?... at least we get a little action back on the $4 exactor.

Okay race four...

Non-winner of the year or four lifers and not a bad group for the early part of the meet, including old local favorite, :4: veteran Bullfight.

Gotta, gotta like Bullfight. He's lost a little bit of his vigor, but he got the winter off and made a return appearance in Nebraska off the bench, and has a nice little breeze over the track here since.

The most interesting new face in here is :8: Warlock Warrior, who figures to take the bulk of the action off of some solid races the last couple of years in Nebraska. But before running there, he did face some stiffer competition at Prarie, Arlington, even a career debut win at Oaklawn.

The outside horse :9: Alacran is interesting if he's anywhere near the 10-1 M/L - he's run some pretty big races in the past in Nebraska with decent rivals and probably appreciates having some, but not a ton, of pace to run at in this short sprint.

Okay...

You can't bet much to win at this joint, but since Bullfight is still 3-1 and could possibly hang up higher than 2-1 or 5-2, I'm going to make sure to just play the one I actually like the most.

If he's 2-1 or better:

$20 win #4

$1 tri 4 - 8,9 - ALL = $14
$1 tri 8,9 - 4 - ALL = $14

$5 ex 4 - 8,9 = $10
$3 ex 8,9 - 4 = $6

and of course, cause ya got to...

$1 super 4 - 8,9 - 7,8,9 - ALL = $20

That's a lot of fake cash to drop in a bunch of pools for a race like this, but it's opening day!!! And, we should have made a few dollars with that exacta in the previous, so I have to be a little bit ahead anyway.

[johnhannibalsmith]

...$4 exacta: 10 - 2,7 = $8
...

Well, we got one anyway...

$4 exacta returns $152.80

but man oh man - had I used the 7 as the tri key instead of the 2...



4-7-1 tri: $3,636.20

:bang: :bang: :bang:

[wiffleball whizz]

Arpahole

$1 tri 48/1567/145678

[johnhannibalsmith]

...
That's a lot of fake cash to drop in a bunch of pools for a race like this,...

Especially when Theriot can't get the sumuvabeetch out of the gate and then runs into trouble for a quarter mile once he finally does. :bang:

Geeez louise... on the plus side, he coasted him from the eighth in once he was beat, so should only get a better price on the return trip hopefully going a little farther.

[wiffleball whizz]

Arpahole

$1 tri 48/1567/145678

The 8 was supposed to be the 9 for the tri I swear to god!!!!!! I
Got confused with the entry numbers they bet the 9 like they couldn't lose

Just to let the fact be known im not betting
Just wanted to tout a number home

[johnhannibalsmith]

...

Just to let the fact be known im not betting
Just wanted to tout a number home

Don't worry, me neither, I'm in a state that doesn't want me to contribute to the coffers under penalty of death or life with Jody Arias, so I don't argue with them. It just gives me something to do.

Okay, better see where I am in fake dollars for records keeping's sake.

$20+30+30+(gulp)60 = $140 spent

+$152.80 = +$12.80... my best day ever at ArP through four!!! :lol:


Quatah Hass trials for races five and six... at least there aren't twenty of them all day, but yuck, these aren't too exciting...

:6: Lethal Runaway been getting bet like he's already won off the 20-1 M/L... I wonder if Tommy Fig still makes the morning line...

He ran there last year in trials and never really ran any good, but always took a little action, so there may be something here - but I'll just take the position that he's just helping to keep some of the prices on others all the more attractive.

:4: Carter's Playmate was everyone's favorite from a hot barn here last season and I really thought he'd be crushed in this spot today. Last I looked, he was 2-1, which seems huge to me.

:3: Fabulous Ocean beat some pretty nice colts last season in the Mile High I believe and even he's a nice price here.

Don't really want to get too deep into this one until I watch a couple of QH races to see if there's a good/bad part of the track, so don't really know what to do with the rail horse, but his good races at Prarie Meadows interest me more than those at Hialeah and off of the former, he figures to be awfully legit.

Okay...

$6 exacta box 4 - 1,3 = $24
$6 exacta box 3,4 = $12
$1 tri box 1,3,4 = $6
$1 tri 4 - 1,3 - ALL = $12
$1 tri 1,3 -4 - ALL = $12

$66 Fake dollars????

I thought I was going light into this one???

:mad:

:lol:

[wiffleball whizz]

I wonder if and nyra track or so.cal track has ever had a horse with a arP line on it??????!!!!!

[johnhannibalsmith]

What the heck? I was already counting my $12 3-4 exacta and 3-4-2 trifecta while Jonathan was announcing that it was a win photo between the 3 and 4 and then they post 3-2-4... :lol: ... and make it official???

I gotta see this photo... no way...


Okay, okay... :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

He just announced that they placed it wrong and have it incorrect on the tote board but that it is actually 3-4-2 and posted on the monitors correctly... I almost miss Arapahole now... :lol: :lol:


So, we get $19.60 times 6 and half of $103...

That's $117.60 + 51.50 - $66 = $103.10 profit on that dash, plus the $12.80 we had coming in... so I've got $115.90 in fake dollars banked! :jump: Woot!

Race six coming up...

More quarters and a couple familiar faces as well as some neat looking newcomers.

:5: Built Tuff Enough was a mack daddy last year, actually outran Carter's Playmate as the fave in the early Fut last year.

Happy-go-lucky Hammes hauls Ceasar De Alba all the way out here to qualify :1: Eye Dash On off of his three good races at Los Al.

The really intriguing one is :8: Kr Working Man, who has been touring the lower rungs of the good QH futurity circuits at Lethbridge and Grand Praire. I usually like these ones because they get ignored for the most part because nobody thinks anything winning at Lbg can compete with Los Al maiden winners. This one, though, is getting bet - 3-1 right now.

:7: Fury N Pizazz has some good races, but just got dusted against winners in NM. Hard to tell if maybe he's tailing off, but he's in one of the best barns there for this and has a couple of good works over the track, so it's not like he just hauled in yesterday and Polo hasn't had his hands on him for long.

Big Jose Barron has the :2: , Slump Buster, who really doesn't quite look good enough to actually win this or anything - but he's pretty well seasoned and when he's been in with straight maidens, he's run well. Don't see this one as any threat to win the futurity or even the race for that matter, but he knows what he's doing, the inside looked good off limited observation, and he could slip in for part.

Alrighty...

Prices are nutty. I'm tempted to offer up a win ticket on both :1: and :5: , since they are 5-1 and 4-1 respectively, which seems crazy, but a couple of $20 win bets will fix the tote board in a hurry.

$1 tri: 1,5,8 - 1,5,8 - 1,2,5,7,8 = $18

$3 exacta: 1,5 - 1,2,5,7,8 = $24
$3 exacta box: 1,5,8 = $18

Cause ya gotta...

$1 super: 1,5 - 1,5,7,8 - 1,5,7,8 - 1,2,3,5,7,8 = $24

:5: is still 4-1 at 1MTP and I expect the late money goes to the :1: , so I'll assume the five will stay up over 3-1 and offer up...

$20 win #5 = $20

That's a lot of loot again.

[johnhannibalsmith]

I wonder if and nyra track or so.cal track has ever had a horse with a arP line on it??????!!!!!

Oh yeah. There have been a few that have been claimed in California and come over to run in stakes or just shipped in for the money and then went back. The winner of the Goldrush two years ago off the top of my head...

Chips All In, I believe?

He's won a few stakes back at home in California since. There have been a few others just in the last couple of years that will pop into my head throughout the day now that you've mentioned it.

[johnhannibalsmith]

....
$3 exacta: 1,5 - 1,2,5,7,8 = $24
...
:5: is still 4-1 at 1MTP and I expect the late money goes to the :1: , so I'll assume the five will stay up over 3-1 and offer up...

$20 win #5 = $20

That's a lot of loot again.

Yep, it cost me $104 fake dollars to make all those bets in the post and it would have been stellar if the seven could have gotten by the two to connect a little better.

But, the five paid amazingly well - $12.00 and the $2 5-2 exacta was $49.

So...

I was ahead $115.90 and spent $104, leaving me with $11.90.

Got $120 for the win ticket and $73.50 for the exacta, having me up $205.40 in fake money through six on opening day.

Race seven is a starter allowance and other than a few of them, it's a pretty solid group here. Usually these starter races are just cheap claimers trained by people who are scared to death that they are going to lose a pay horse for the summer.

You'd think that Shawn Davis wasn't a hall-of-fame rodeo superstar, but rather a hall-of-fame trainer the way he gets played at Arapahoe... but, somehow, he does actually win a ton of races here.

But the price on Lee Creek here now, 1-5 at 12MTP, is just nuts.

Yeah, I took him a few times in my TuP selections because he was a good price and figured to be one of the only deep closers in a speed laden race or something. Even here, where a closer usually isn't handicapped as severely as at TuP, I can't see how he'd be this heavily backed. There are a few pretty useful horses in this spot.

First things first, I love Tennessee Ernie Williams and his favorite horse Maximum Twist, but I have no love for Max in this spot. Brazos Ego couldn't do much here against significantly worse last season. Imatrubador is okay and could get a sniff of the tri or something if a few of these do no running, but I'm thinking he needs a race or three and probably a little easier group than this. So there goes almost half of the field right off the bat.

The second choice here at 7-2 right now, War Signal, is a pretty neat little horse. But, this is a pretty tough spot for a horse that I doubt is close to tight enough to run anything close to his best race. Even still, I doubt he could actually win the race even if he did fire close to his best.

So, that leaves three. Lee Creek at 3-5 or whatever, and :3: Mandated Bliss and :7: Bear Always.

Both Mandated Bliss and Bear Always are nice horses with some back class to them. Bear Always was snatched up for $8k at Gulfstream and promptly went to Oaklawn. He got away poorly there and was beaten a long way at a short price. He then hauled over to Fonner where a guy would figure he would be a cinch and got crushed there too.

Now, maybe it was a horrible claim. Very possible. But, I can cut him some slack for not running well at the dinky Nebraska track and he did have an excuse at Oaklawn. Can't just pitch him yet.

Mandated Bliss is sort of similar with good old races in California.... bah... 2 MTP, gotta wrap up the essay and come with a few bets....

$5 exacta box 3,7 - 3,5,7 = $20
$3 trifecta box 3,5,7 = $18
$3 trifecta 3,7 - 3,5,7 - 3,4,57 = $24
$2 trifecta 3,7 - 3,4,5,7 = $24

$1 Pick 3: 3,5,7 - 6 - ALL = $36

Gotta burn that fake voucher! :D

[johnhannibalsmith]

... Imatrubador is okay and could get a sniff of the tri

...

.... bah... 2 MTP, gotta wrap up the essay and come with a few bets....



Damn it all, got myself in a big hurry to make some fake bets before they hit the gate and neglected to toss Imatrubador in third on a couple of the spread trifectas as I intended to and he just gets past the four late... GRrrr...

Well, needless to say, Lee Creek crashed and burned at 3-5 or whatever as the seven redeems himself for the excusable poor efforts in the last two by destroying the field.

So...

After I feck myself on those trifectas, all I get back is the exacta for $32, but if I get EF Five home, beating Lee Creek will make the pick three play worthwhile I believe.

Spent $118 there, which with the $32 back, gets me to plus $119.40 going to the eighth here.

Race eight is a GREAT collection of local speed demons...

I'm keeping this fairly simple - I love :6: E F Five.

Now, that doesn't necessarily mean that he's a great bet here, but I can't in good faith take any sort of stand against him.

I've seen a lot of very fast horses. I trained one that held a fairly counterfeit four and a half furlong world record. I've spent most of the last decade or so watching speedball after speedball in Arizona - and E F Five rates right up there with all of them. If he was just a little better from the gate, didn't try to get out in the turn, and wasn't a wee bit of a nut, he'd probably be a serious, serious racehorse. He's already pretty damn legit.

He has been off since last year, but I don't think he's all that hard to get pretty tight. He trains hard. He puts a lot into everything, even in the morning. It's all you can do from keeping him from sizzling any time he goes to the track. This is his home track, this is a distance made for him, and though not a terribly aggressive rider when he probably should be, KB knows this old bugger pretty darn well by now.

There's a lot of gas in here, so he has to boogie early, but there isn't a vast collection of superior lane charging steamrollers here.

Well, my pick dropped from 6-1 to 5-2 since I started this essay. So I'll start with a few exotics and then drop a win bet if he's still over 9-5 or so.

I'm a big fan of :5: Alert The Press. A little underpowered against the best in here, but can sit an ideal trip just behind the pace and be in the perfect spot if anyone is caught gasping.

I'm a big fan of :10: Ultimate Question. Don't think he's a five furlong model against the likes of some of these, but he has talent, can rally through the lane, and is trained by one of the most underappreciated local sharpies.

:9: Wicked Flyer is just a good old horse and a damn fine one.

$6 exacta 6 - 5,9,10
$4 exacta 5,9,10 - 6
$1 exacta box 5,6,9,10

$1 trifecta 6 - 5,9,10
$1 trifecta 5,9,10 - 6 -5,9,10
$1 trifecta 5,9,10 - 5,9,10 - 6

Cause, well you know...

$1 super 6 - 5,9,10, - 4,5,9,10 - 3,4,5,9,10

$20 win 6

No idea what that all costs yet, it's almost post time!

[johnhannibalsmith]

...If he was just a little better from the gate, ..though not a terribly aggressive rider when he probably should be...

That was brutal.

Walked out of the gate and took way too long to get going, leaving the pace to Artistic Venture and Kid Rambo all by themselves and the race ran totally upside down from how it figured to me.

Of course, Kid Rambo ran as well as he has in three years and there was ZERO chance that I was going to count on that old bugger to come off the shelf with two works and run as good a race as I can remember him ever running. Even when E F Five got himself left and Rambo was only hooked with Artistic Venture, I still fully expected him to lay down no later than Artistic Venture did.

So, was totally wrong not only about not only the selection, but the winner, so I had no shot at all there.

And I think I had $92 in bets there if I added correctly, so I only have $27.40 to play this finale that I really can't make any sense of...

[johnhannibalsmith]

Alright, don't want to bank $27 on opening day... need to either make enough for Sizzler or go home busted like a true degenerate Arapahole.

I can't see how this thing that Kerry Kemper just claimed out at Hollywood won't destroy this group unless she's just one of the all-time worst claims. Even then, Kerry has the sense to probably just run her where he would almost certainly lose her. So she's either just a straight in win bet if I thought I had any chance to actually get the 8-5 she's stuck at now. Thinking she'll wind up a lot closer to the 2-5 she probably should be. The TuP horses are some of the worst you could possibly find on the grounds there and pretty much everything else is Nebraska steam.

I guess I'll connect on a superfecta here just because... Can't make it all the way through opening day and not hit a super. Obviously we'll put Kemper on top, what appears to be the best one from TuP and the best from the Neb contingent in second, and then a spattering from there trying to just get lucky.

Actually, I ran out of steam three races ago and really am not very interested in this at all, but since I crashed and burned with E F Five and left myself with pocket change, I have to do something here for the entertainment value and a sense of full-card completion.

$1 super 12 - 7,9 - 5,6,7,9 - 2,5,6,7,8,9,11 = $30

There, I'm either Sizzler bound or I'm leaving broke by three beans like a true horseplayer! :D

[johnhannibalsmith]

Damn it, they scratched one of my two second slot horses, the good one at 20-1.

Okay, restructure time:

12 - 5,6,7 - 5,6,7 - 2,4,5,6,7,8,11

That makes $30 also. Good enough. Let's go... I gotta piss and smoke.

[johnhannibalsmith]

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

I knew I hated the race...

One of the only horses that appeared NOWHERE on my ticket at 48-1 crushes $10k n2L in her first vs. winners off of some of the worst looking maiden race defeats to be found anywhere in the field.

That was why I used ALL in the pick 3 the first time I looked it over... if Kemper couldn't get there, it was pretty well up for grabs. By the way, I've noticed that Russell the Mussel still doesn't think being ten wide from start to finish has a negative impact on his chances. Also by the way, I may get 2 of 3 on that pick 3. :D

Good night and good day, thanks for keeping me occupied all day long and using my brain just slightly more than if I was watching streaming season two of Breaking Bad.

[johnhannibalsmith]

A quick little run through the Sunday's card since I have to run off for a while.



Race 1: Co-bred non-twos for five kick off the day and it was carded with a massive field of six, and as near as I can tell, only five of them are actually Co-breds. Not sure how Sixtimestheclass makes it into the field as a Kansas-bred, and can't ever remember him facing CO-breds before in case there is some obscure rule that lets KS-breds in with Co-breds, so I'm thinking the M/L favorite and only one that can run much at all ends up scratched. So once that happens, the race really looks really ugly. I guess at the right price I'd take a chance that Extra Bold is fit enough to gas these from the start, maybe back him up as a win candidate with an exacta box with Kenneth Street, but really, not much here to see.



Race 2: Races two and three were utter head-scratchers for me. The locals mostly coming back off the shelf are hard to get a read on and then there are a small handful of NM maiden also-rans and Nebraska stalwarts. Really, just a jumbled mess of maidens. I'm guessing that Fine Bird is anointed as the heavy favorite by default and I can understand it, but would be hard pressed to endorse it.

Even though ArP doesn't seem interested in letting EQB know that they offer an early Pick 3 on races 2 thru 4, I'm pretty sure that they still do.

In looking ahead to the third for the sake of exploring all options beginning in race 2, we have the other end of the spectrum from the second in terms of actual horseflesh - old hard knockers in a non-winners of the year or four condition going a mile. But, in terms of composition of contenders, there's a similar feel with some of the more established local champs, like good old Nick Missed, making the return off the layoff. Then there is the Nebraska crowd. Top to bottom, there are many cases to be made for each of the entrants. Unfortunately, I find it easier to make cases against for each instead of cases for each.

So, looking ahead again for the sake of the pick three - the fourth is a big field of my favorites, the Arab screamers. Ordinarily, when getting jazzed about possibly playing a pick three, the Arab race is where I start wanting to spread due in part to a lack of confidence playing these high-lopers, and in part because I assume that a lot of tickets are just random OTB dwellers consulting the morning line for guidance in dealing with these crapshoots.

But alas, this Arab race has one of the damn finest Arabs to run at ArP last year, Ms Dixie. It's a little sketchy here as she does face a pretty tough bunch of allowance mares, probably a few of these would have been as good as any she destroyed last season in a stakes, but she looked awfully legit winning - every year there are one or two that just look like a whole different breed on the track from the run-of-the-mill Arabs, like Super Bird the year before, and this filly was that one last season. Of course, I'm pretty sure that when she scratched from a stakes last year, she did so because of injury, so there's a little more room for trepidation, but I'm looking at her as the most likely winner on the card thus far through four. Not often I see an Arab in that light.

Adding to the interest factor is the 2-1 M/L, as opposed to the likely 2-5 post time odds, and the fact that there are a couple of 4-1s and a couple of 8-1s, so the program consulting pick three players are probably not going to go overboard with singles on Ms Dixie.

Generally, I try to keep my pick 3 tickets at ArP around $20 because of the puny pool size. You get too much deeper and with every added $10, you may literally be halving the ROI of a winning tickets. But, in this case, I think there is a slim chance of picking up a big part of the pool on opening weekend if a couple of big prices connect in the first two legs.

I'm tepidly looking at a simple pick 3 wheel here, ALL to ALL to 10 (Ms Dixie). As a little back-up since I do suspect that Fine Bird is heavily backed both on the tote and in the sequence in leg one, I'll offer up a $2 6-ALL-10. Then, just to doubly make sure, a $3 6-1,3,4-10. Tough for me to sell the notion of $70+ into the early P3, but I think that there is some opportunity to get somewhere between 8-5 and 4-1 on Ms. Dixie in that pool as opposed to the 2-5 or thereabouts in the win pool for the fourth.



Race 3: Not going to belabor this one after the longwinded pick three essay, I just can't figure on a way to play against a few that can win, nor play strongly those same horses - at least without seeing the tote board for some last minute value play. If I was positive that Nick Missed was fit enough to handle the collection of new faces that aren't as good, but are fit, I'd just green light the old veteran. He has won in spots like this off the layoff before, but again, often times he's just one of many contenders in the field that are making the first start back off the layoff and he's just a little tighter and a little better. Sort of hoping he gets hammered and that opens the door for some value on a couple that aren't as good, but are twice as race fit.



Race 4: Ms. Dixie is my single in the pick three, which may mark one of the only times in history that I used an Arab race as a single. Even when there is one in the field that is much the best and a legit 1-5 shot (Super Bird, etc.), rarely do you get a big field like this and a couple of lead-in races that are arguably wide-open and make the prospect of an Arab single seem possible.

I think that there is some room for a little side action in some other pools - don't want to get too cocky looking at the Arabs, but I do like Lil Rich Girl and Ebeaucoup for part of this if they fire. I'd like to see the will pays on exactas, but I could use both of those under Ms. Dixie in exactas if there was the right return. Likewise, I'd consider the prospects of tris and supers with those two keyed second, or second and third, or second and fourth, or some such combination if the cost was manageable. I'm not a superfecta player for the most part, but after the last couple of years, watching tickets pay consolations routinely and knowing that a simple ticket that keys a top pick over the other contenders, over the remainder would have yielded the pool with just a confident play of $24 or $36 or hell, even $72, I'm convinced I missed some of the best chances to turn a strong opinion on a short priced winner into a 10-1 or better proposition.



Race 5: Good race as far as the lead contenders here. I expect that Irish Hazel V. will scratch, and still the remaining six are really nice mares. I do think Amber Got Even is probably a little overmatched. I do think that arguably the best mare in the race, Jet Blue Girl, fresh off the $40k claim in California, will be ridiculously overbet.

That leaves me with, as far as win bet contenders, Lady Jila, Hindu Kush, So Tempted, and Lady Contender. I'm not sure what kind of price So Tempted will land at, but thinking she may end up as second choice off her back Cal form and that means the other three should be pretty big numbers. Lady Jila kinda sorta needs everything to go her way and runs best from the outside. This field may not play to her strengths. Hindu Kush got the dream set-up and trip in an AZbred stakes and blew up the tote and that big race probably stands out like a sore thumb to bettors.

Long story shorter, I suspect that the best value will be on Lady Contender. This bitch can flat run. She's a nut and I'm not sure she's tight, and this is probably the best field she's dealt with by far. But, she won her debut by daylight when dead short and is ALL racemare. There is no stop to her, ever, and there is no quit - she'd run around the track for six miles until she collapsed in a heap if that's what you let her do. In terms of making a simple win bet and looking for value, I don't think I'd spend much and just enjoy the race, but if she ends up around 7-1 to 10-1, which I think is likely, and the rest of the contenders not named Jet Blue Sky and So Tempted are logjammed between 3-1 and 6-1, I'd go this way.



Race 6: I think that the TuP horses may just be the best of the bunch here - they're fit and most of them are about good enough to win the race. There are a couple that may be a little better, but probably need the race. I'm taking a dim view of M/L fave Quarterback Coach. I'd probably just look to exacta boxes of Our Henny Penny and Isagia Mia and as a bit of a saver, probably a trifecta box that uses those two plus Elle Woods, who I'm still a little sketchy on in general. If Quarterback Coach runs out, the return of the rest of these logical players should be decent enough and frankly, I can't very well separate those three too much more than like the two more than the third by a hair.



Race 7: Good group of pounders for an older horse stakes. I could make a case for most of them and play just about any one. But, I think This Is Da One may be 4-1 or better in here and he just got really good last season as a four-year-old. He's back at age five and this may be the one chance you get to catch him at a fair price before he tries to run the table at the meet in these older horse races and does so at a much shorter price each time.



Race 8: The three-year-old stakes really isn't a great bunch this season in my opinion and honestly, I hate the M/L favorite A Drop Dead Diva. I've gone into a bit more detail on my problems with her in the past back when she was still running in California and I've only accentuated those problems. She can run, yes, but she's a quirky filly and I think this may go down as a pretty poor claim for the money. She's fast and if she could clear off easily and never let anyone within range of her, I can see her gutting out a win.

But, she's never really been ridden that way, she's always been asked to get a breather. And when horses come to her in the turn or lane, then you can't ask her hard to kick away again. She seems to sour up at any strong urging and just plain stops altogether if she takes any stick at all. As far as I'm concerned if she's a short price, she's an EASY play against. She really needs a totally different ride, in my opinion, and I'd hate to banking on that happening at a short price.

The alternative for me is the rail horse, Bourbon Pride. It's no secret that I think that Ty Garrett is a totally underrated trainer and probably the best on the grounds up there. It's hard to get a line on this horse and really, I don't love him, but there's some ability there and in a pretty poor field, my faith is with the trainer to have this one ready to perform his best.



Race 9: Motley crue of non-winners since fillies and mares close the show and if you love something in here, by all means play it, because you got me. I don't like just about anyone in this spot and I suspect it will take the toteboard to push me in one direction or another. If the race were farther, I could probably talk myself into Quietly Roar because even though she probably isn't tight, she'd get to run her race and get a breather at some point - but unless she either burns up chasing the pace or commits to a late running style that puts her probably six or twelve wide in the turn - I just think she's got too many things to overcome in this particular field even if she is the best mare. I'll take another look later, I guess.

Have fun!

[johnhannibalsmith]

...

Race 1: Co-bred non-twos for five kick off the day and it was carded with a massive field of six, and as near as I can tell, only five of them are actually Co-breds. Not sure how Sixtimestheclass makes it into the field as a Kansas-bred, and can't ever remember him facing CO-breds before in case there is some obscure rule that lets KS-breds in with Co-breds, so I'm thinking the M/L favorite and only one that can run much at all ends up scratched. So once that happens, the race really looks really ugly. I guess at the right price I'd take a chance that Extra Bold is fit enough to gas these from the start, maybe back him up as a win candidate with an exacta box with Kenneth Street, but really, not much here to see.


...

I shouldn't even be entertaining the notion of playing this field, but for the love of all things tiny and large, Fuzzy Lovin has topped out at a high of even money on the tote board. Anybody can win, but from 2-5 to 3-5 to even money on Fuzzy Friggin Lovin? There's just begging someone to bet something and as expected Extra Bold is the longest shot in the field at 4MTP at 7-1. He may come down some, but not much. I don't think he has a better chance than a few in here, mainly just because I doubt his fitness level as expressed above, but he could easily be a loose leader. Without much running likely to happen and at that price, I suppose it wouldn't be like me to NOT make a small bet and put my money where my big gaping mouth is.

$8 win #2

$2 exacta box 2 with 1,6

$2 ex box 2,6

$20

[johnhannibalsmith]

...

$8 win #2

$2 exacta box 2 with 1,6

$2 ex box 2,6

$20

What the hell? Is someone actually reading this drivel? :lol:

Extra Bold dropped from 7-1 to 6-1 as they went in the gate and then at the half-mile pole he was 2-1????

Broke well, went to the lead, and nobody did any running as expected. The only threat was my other pick, Kenneth Street, who was second by about a short half.

Holy hell, even the exacta plummeted almost in half...

Anyway, $6.60 to win and a $25 exacta. So, $26.40 plus $50- makes $76.40 minus the $20 in wagers has us up $56.40 fake bucks after one horrible race to start the day. :jump: :jump:

Let's see if I can get back up over $200 again and then piss it all away in one race.

[johnhannibalsmith]

...


Race 3: Not going to belabor this one after the longwinded pick three essay, I just can't figure on a way to play against a few that can win, nor play strongly those same horses - at least without seeing the tote board for some last minute value play. If I was positive that Nick Missed was fit enough to handle the collection of new faces that aren't as good, but are fit, I'd just green light the old veteran. He has won in spots like this off the layoff before, but again, often times he's just one of many contenders in the field that are making the first start back off the layoff and he's just a little tighter and a little better. Sort of hoping he gets hammered and that opens the door for some value on a couple that aren't as good, but are twice as race fit.



...

I'm liking this race less and less the more I look at it, but I am somewhat surprised that Regal Journey has been holding steady around 9-2. I kind of expected him to be a close second choice to Nick Missed, 5-2 or 3-1, off of the win last time at Turf Paradise.

My big knock was rooted in the fact that he's just not very good and made the most of a paceless field on a speed favoring track to win his third race last time. The last part of that is my secondary knock, he's in on the non-four clause and not the sort that I gravitate towards in these combo conditions - he's the long time non-three that just finally had an aberrantly good day when everything came together.

But face it... here... unless you want to back the old horse at 2-1 off the long layoff or have some insight into these random clunkers from Nebraska - he looks better and better at that kind of price.

Well, 1 MTP...

I haven't added my pick three from the original post into the day's expenses, so how about we take a swing for the heck of it.

$20 win #3

1 tri 3 with 1,2,4,5,7 $20

[johnhannibalsmith]

Well hell, hate to get beat any time, especially by the favorite, but can't help but root for old Nick Missed and Johnny Rocket.

A good spot to come back in - that's for sure - and he didn't disappoint. Just much too much back class for these suckers even as he staggered to the wire. :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[johnhannibalsmith]

Race 4: Ms. Dixie is my single in the pick three, which may mark one of the only times in history that I used an Arab race as a single. Even when there is one in the field that is much the best and a legit 1-5 shot (Super Bird, etc.), rarely do you get a big field like this and a couple of lead-in races that are arguably wide-open and make the prospect of an Arab single seem possible.

I think that there is some room for a little side action in some other pools - don't want to get too cocky looking at the Arabs, but I do like Lil Rich Girl and Ebeaucoup for part of this if they fire. I'd like to see the will pays on exactas, but I could use both of those under Ms. Dixie in exactas if there was the right return. Likewise, I'd consider the prospects of tris and supers with those two keyed second, or second and third, or second and fourth, or some such combination if the cost was manageable. I'm not a superfecta player for the most part, but after the last couple of years, watching tickets pay consolations routinely and knowing that a simple ticket that keys a top pick over the other contenders, over the remainder would have yielded the pool with just a confident play of $24 or $36 or hell, even $72, I'm convinced I missed some of the best chances to turn a strong opinion on a short priced winner into a 10-1 or better proposition.




1-9 on Ms Dixie.

The exacta pays are concentrated to the 3 and 7. To the 5 and 6, they willpay reads $27 and $215 respectively. I guess that means I better try for some side action. :D

$5 exacta 10-5,6 = $10
$5 exacta 10-5 = $5

$1 trifecta 10 - 2,3,5,6,7 = $20

$1 super 10 - 3,5,6,7 - 3,5,6,7 - 1,2,3,5,6,7 = $48

Suddenly I bet more fake money in Arab and pounder races than in thoroughbred races. :lol:

[johnhannibalsmith]

... I LOVE WASTING MONEY KEYING 1-2 SHOT ARABS!!!...

Yeah, that's more like it. The 1-2 shot lock of the day pick three anchor key of the day in all exotics stops to a walk at the sixteenth and her stablemate wins at double digits by a nose over my second pick here, also at double digits. :bang: :bang:

Friggin' Arab racing. Can't they run these horrible things in the first or last or something so they don't get in the middle of my wagering action and somehow compel me to have a strong enough opinion to actually come with a hundred dollars worth of ridiculous bets??? :D :D

Ah hell, that just wasn't the Ms. Dixie that ran here last year. If she runs anything like she did last year before the injury, I'm cashing a few tickets, if not making much money.

Hard to predict that Nick Missed would overhaul a field off the layoff on class alone and yet, Ms. Dixie would get her ass run over in there. Lesson learned until tomorrow.

[johnhannibalsmith]

Race 5: Good race as far as the lead contenders here. I expect that Irish Hazel V. will scratch, and still the remaining six are really nice mares. I do think Amber Got Even is probably a little overmatched. I do think that arguably the best mare in the race, Jet Blue Girl, fresh off the $40k claim in California, will be ridiculously overbet.

That leaves me with, as far as win bet contenders, Lady Jila, Hindu Kush, So Tempted, and Lady Contender. I'm not sure what kind of price So Tempted will land at, but thinking she may end up as second choice off her back Cal form and that means the other three should be pretty big numbers. Lady Jila kinda sorta needs everything to go her way and runs best from the outside. This field may not play to her strengths. Hindu Kush got the dream set-up and trip in an AZbred stakes and blew up the tote and that big race probably stands out like a sore thumb to bettors.

Long story shorter, I suspect that the best value will be on Lady Contender. This bitch can flat run. She's a nut and I'm not sure she's tight, and this is probably the best field she's dealt with by far. But, she won her debut by daylight when dead short and is ALL racemare. There is no stop to her, ever, and there is no quit - she'd run around the track for six miles until she collapsed in a heap if that's what you let her do. In terms of making a simple win bet and looking for value, I don't think I'd spend much and just enjoy the race, but if she ends up around 7-1 to 10-1, which I think is likely, and the rest of the contenders not named Jet Blue Sky and So Tempted are logjammed between 3-1 and 6-1, I'd go this way.



...

Tote board is ALL over the place.

My pick was the favorite in the paddock, moved up to 5-2, the seven took a hit and went favored, then Lady Contender took action dropped to even money, then the rail mare got hit, now Lady Contender again...

Oy vey...

I forgot what a chore it is trying to get a read on the win pool and why I'm always stuck trying to flush something out of the exotics.

No idea what to think here as far as betting at this point. I do know that after the last disaster, my fake bets are stuck about $100.

So, without further ado, an audible:

$1 trifecta - 2,5 - 1,2,4,5 - 1,2,4,5,6

[johnhannibalsmith]

Welpers...

The filly that I liked the least on the win end of things rallies late to barely lose a photo to the filly that I liked the least in general. Lady Contender appeared to have it won at the eighth pole and lugged in pretty badly, catching the rider off guard it appeared, while both came up short midstretch.

Wicked pace and it appears the rail mare may be cooked or something. With Amber Got Even rallying from far back in the vicinity of the big $40k claim, and the latter showing NOTHING, that's not a good sign.

Good race, hard to bet anyway, but probably a few little nuggets of information that could be extracted there for future reference. Hopefully they don't fire Lady Contender back in six days or something wacky. Amber Got Even is back to loving Colorado. And So Tempted may not look pretty warming up, but she runs hard.

Good race. First instinct to just enjoy it if I didn't get 6-1 or so on Lady Contender was the right thinking.

[johnhannibalsmith]

...


Race 6: I think that the TuP horses may just be the best of the bunch here - they're fit and most of them are about good enough to win the race. There are a couple that may be a little better, but probably need the race. I'm taking a dim view of M/L fave Quarterback Coach. I'd probably just look to exacta boxes of Our Henny Penny and Isagia Mia and as a bit of a saver, probably a trifecta box that uses those two plus Elle Woods, who I'm still a little sketchy on in general. If Quarterback Coach runs out, the return of the rest of these logical players should be decent enough and frankly, I can't very well separate those three too much more than like the two more than the third by a hair.


...


Alright, rather than sit here and study the will pays and talk myself off of something or into something and then have the toteboard turn over sideways at 1MTP and regret backtracking yet again - I'll just stick with my first impressions here.

I'm now stuck about $120 after the Arab champion's meltdown and trying to make a buck in the last race when I knew I really didn't have a terribly strong opinion and conceded it could go almost any way.

$5 exacta box 4,7 - 4,6,7 = $20
$6 exacta box 4,7 = $12
$3 tri box 4,6,7 = $18

I used the TuP horses and avoided Rock Those Hips because I figured she'd get bet hard off the 10-1 M/L. She's crushed even more than I figured, the favorite at 6-5 now. She's an impossible read off of her races at TuP last year in breed races and she may very well be much the best off the layoff, but with other realistic options and a short price, I'm looking at her like the M/L favorite - pieces of the puzzle that can hopefully help the value of the other pieces if I get it right.

[johnhannibalsmith]

Good news and bad news.

The bad news is that Renee's Passion proved that her races against CO-breds as a 2yo. last season were better than they seemed at the time or they looked on paper. If she hadn't been destroyed in her two starts this year at OP, maybe she would have been harder to dismiss outright, but instead she puts away the EIK favorite on the lead early and holds of my 4 and 7, who end up 2nd and 3rd. I guess it wasn't the right move to just assume the in-form, fit AZ horses were going to be too much for the others to overcome this early in the meet.

The good news is that I played the race with fake free money. Yep, just looked back and I was actually only stuck $50 going into that one, not around $120. Why? I was wrong and ArP didn't start a pick three in race 2. :lol:

My whole early look centered around a wagering opportunity that doesn't exist, so I don't think I'll hold that losing ticket against myself since I couldn't have made it if I flew out to Colorado in a lear jet just to make it there by post time.

:D

So, now, I'm stuck about $100. I shouldn't be, but I can't quite remember how to do this quite yet. Baby steps.

My pick in the seventh is a scratch, so now that I'm curious since I actually thought the barn's other entry was in there to fill for my pick and now it appears I may have had it backwards.

Time for a smoke, but just so I can post something, smoke, and sit back down and continue watching Breaking Bad season 2:

$20 win #7

[johnhannibalsmith]

...

$20 win #7

Ran a good second at 5-1, but the 3-5 winner was too good.

Amazingly, the quinella paid at around 6-1, kicking back almost as much as the $2 exacta. I guess the strong second choice there finishing out must have been getting crushed with the favorite in that pool for such a perdy pay. That's where the play was in that race.

The Inaugural Stakes better be my bail out race here, because I'm stuck and I hate the last.

As mentioned earlier, I think A Drop Dead Diva is a play against, but the field is pretty much a mess behind her.

:4: Clone is the logical go-to horse for me, probably facing better in general than most of these and doing well. Can sprint and run from just about anywhere he needs to.

But, I'm still mostly interested in :1: Bourbon Pride as the possible value here. I'm not sure what kind of trip he can get here as he seems better suited for races down the road going farther, but it does seem as thought stopping speed should be readily available here and the track hasn't been unfair to closers.

Looks like my one is up at 12-1 now, so I'll just hope and wish.

$10 W/P #1 = $20

$1 tri 1,4 - 1,4 - ALL = $18
$1 tri 1,4 - ALL - ALL = $18

$5 exbox 1,4 = $10

$1 super 1,4 - 1,4,9 - 1,4,6,9 - 1,2,4,6,7,9 = $something

[garyscpa]

You write some very entertaining drivel, JHS. :D

[johnhannibalsmith]

Aw hell, I knew A Drop Dead Diva was an utter toss out as the favorite, but just couldn't piece it together for a score. I actually loved the winner last year as a 2yo. here, but it looked like she was at the end of a VERY long and taxing campaign. Used her in fourth and my other pick just gets beat, but none of that means a damn thing for making any fake money. :D

My top pick there I think rallied from last to be fifth, but yeah, just too short for him. Ran well enough for sure to encourage me to play him back going farther when he gets to do what he really wants.

Oh well, tough day to come with a few of these winners even when I'm on the mark with which need to be tossed at short prices.

I guess now I'm stuck trying to find SOMETHING for redemption in the last if I'm going to play this fake ticket thread like a true degenerate full-card bettor. :D

[johnhannibalsmith]

You write some very entertaining drivel, JHS. :D

Welp, if the only race I can connect on is a field of CO-bred maidens that I didn't even like, I better try to achieve at something here. :D

Okay, last race, as I said, is a pile of what I would generally consider unbettable fillies and mares.

I sort of committed to trying to find something at a decent price that I could play to win and also key in an exacta or trifecta or something since I can't count on the toteboard to resemble itself from minute to minute.

I can't believe that I end up here... but... I've settled on :1: Jesi's Gold, a filly that I've never really liked. But, at least I sort of know what I think she can do and how she'll fit in here.

She should (emphasis should) be able to settle just in behind the pace and pick a good spot and if she's good enough and runs better than the rest of what EIK has sent out, figures to get as good a trip (the rail is usually wide open if you want it) as anyone in here. Toss out her last effort - she just ran back too quickly trying to get one more in before the end of TuP. The deal sealer is that she's 10-1 and has been up over that price from the opening, so I don't expect her to suddenly plummet to 2-1 like the one in the opener.

$10 W/P #1 = $20

$2 exbox 1 - 2,3,7,8,10 $20

$1 trifecta 1 - 2,3,7,8,10 = $20
$1 trifecta 2,3,7,8,10 -1 - 2,3,7,8,10 = $20

Bail out BABY!!!

:lol:

[johnhannibalsmith]

Yeah, forget it. Not only playing a filly that can barely run but now in a barn that is clearly on a Nyquil regimen.

Consolation there is that since I was obligated to play the race, the best I could do was to use the 16-1 winner as a kicker like I did, because there was no shot I could bet her to win or key her. I think she ran every week last year and never got a win and here she is giving the Monk Hall barn two winners already in one day off of the winter vacation.

Not to be today kiddos. Or tomorrow if they keep running like they did today. :D

[castaway01]

I'm always entertained by your analyzes, JHS. Not quite sure if it's happy or sad that you're putting this much time into analyzing awful races you can't actually bet, but you write well about them and it seems to make you happy, so...