Oxbow

[forced89]

I made good money betting on Oxbow. Not because I am brilliant but because I thought he had a decent chance and liked his odds. I watched him in person at Oaklawn where I thought he ran really well despite being very unlucky in the Post Position draws. I also though he ran great in the Kentucky Derby considering the suicidal pace.

[RXB]

Oxbow's a different horse when he can dictate the pace. When he's rated off the pace he's too tense and it costs him in the latter stages.

[Valuist]

Oxbow had a number of difficult trips where he still ran well. The only thing that kept me off him was his dull race in his last dry track race, the Ark Derby.

But while we can praise Oxbow's pre-Preakness efforts for being better than they looked on paper, he finally got his perfect trip. So who was the best horse in the Preakness? A horse I loathed coming into the race: Mylute. He clearly was the best closer against the very slow pace.

[JPinMaryland]

the problem with Mylute in my opinion is he does not want to pass horses. He had the best or one of the best final fractions in the derby and again yesterday. He can run as fast any of them but he only wants to do this when he's chasing a horse, he doesn't seem to want to push past any horse alongside him. I don't want to sound red boarding, I pointed this out last week as well. Some want to blame Rosie but I don't see it that way at all, this horse seems like he hangs.

[Valuist]

the problem with Mylute in my opinion is he does not want to pass horses. He had the best or one of the best final fractions in the derby and again yesterday. He can run as fast any of them but he only wants to do this when he's chasing a horse, he doesn't seem to want to push past any horse alongside him. I don't want to sound red boarding, I pointed this out last week as well. Some want to blame Rosie but I don't see it that way at all, this horse seems like he hangs.

It was a problem in the Louisiana Derby although he was hanging against a dead game horse who knows how to find the wire (remember Revolutionary's traffic filled win over the inner dirt?). His last win was by 10 so he wasn't eyeballed in the stretch. But I can't fault him for not getting up to win on Saturday. Under the circumstances it was nearly impossible for him to spot Oxbow that much ground and that slow a pace and get up to win. I wasn't a fan of the horse going into the race but I came away very impressed with Mylute.

[pondman]

I made good money betting on Oxbow. Not because I am brilliant but because I thought he had a decent chance and liked his

These are the moments horse player live for. You don't have to feel guilty for taking people's money. I had a moderately heavy bet on both oxbow and Mylute. I bought my wife three shades of tourmaline (mined in San Bernadino) for 2 grand. If Rosie would have gotten 2 more feet, my wife would have gotten an electric car. Enjoy it. And live to crush the crowd.

[iceknight]

These are the moments horse player live for. You don't have to feel guilty for taking people's money. I had a moderately heavy bet on both oxbow and Mylute. I bought my wife three shades of tourmaline (mined in San Bernadino) for 2 grand. If Rosie would have gotten 2 more feet, my wife would have gotten an electric car. Enjoy it. And live to crush the crowd. Yeah, I would have made good if Mylute had won, but I am glad Oxbow won (happy for him), as the horse kept trailing off after going to the lead (or his win margin reduced) in several races. I sincerely thought (before the race). Mylute or Orb would close off and win..

But, off topic question, what are "three shades of tourmaline"? Are you talking pendants, ring stone or earrings here?

[Robert Fischer]

Under the circumstances it was nearly impossible for (Mylute) to spot Oxbow that much ground and that slow a pace and get up to win. I wasn't a fan of the horse going into the race but I came away very impressed with Mylute.

agreed.

[RXB]

I wouldn't make too much of Mylute's performance. That was not a frontrunners' track on Saturday.

[Valuist]

That was not a frontrunners' track on Saturday.

Not sure we can draw that conclusion at all. Only three sprint races on the card, one was won wire to wire by Zee Bros, another winner (Sage Valley) was up close tracking two longshots. The third was a 5 furlong race where the 2-5 favorite sat 2nd and got beat. Pace is usually a bigger factor in routes anyways. Pace, not bias, was the key factor in the Preakness.

[RXB]

Not sure we can draw that conclusion at all. Only three sprint races on the card, one was won wire to wire by Zee Bros, another winner (Sage Valley) was up close tracking two longshots. The third was a 5 furlong race where the 2-5 favorite sat 2nd and got beat. Pace is usually a bigger factor in routes anyways. Pace, not bias, was the key factor in the Preakness.

Sage Valley wasn't up close; he was still 4.5 lengths behind the leader at the 1/8th pole.

My real point is that the pace wasn't as soft as the nominal fractions might suggest. Away from the rail and not too fast early were the trip and energy expenditure ideals for the day. Oxbow managed to accomplish each despite being on the lead, but it's not as though Mylute's wide rally came on a day where that was against the grain of success.

[RXB]

Sage Valley wasn't up close; he was still 4.5 lengths behind the leader at the 1/8th pole.

My real point is that the pace wasn't as soft as the nominal fractions might suggest. Away from the rail and not too fast early were the trip and energy expenditure ideals for the day. Oxbow managed to accomplish each despite being on the lead, but it's not as though Mylute's wide rally came on a day where that was against the grain of success.


Whoops; I confused Sage Valley with Debt Ceiling. Ignore that part.

[Robert Fischer]

Have to give Oxbow some credit.

Stevens has looked like he is "in the zone" in both the Derby ride and Preakness ride on Oxbow. He reminded me of some of his better 6.5 downhill turf rides, almost like riding the perfect line.

However, Oxbow is solid horse with early speed, who allowed Stevens to go fairly quickly from the gate and then begin slowing down the pace once into the 1st turn.

Once horse and rider went from a brisk start to simply a 'cruise' the race was over.

During that brisk start, Orb was forced to set up off the pace, and(without the benefit of hindsight) it would have been ill-advised for Rosario to move up the rail out of the gate inside of Goldencents.

But once Oxbow slowed to a cruise into the 1st turn, Orb was locked into a bad position. Rosario realized and tried to get closer, but it was too much adversity.

Mylute had a very clean trip in comparison with Orb, but ran well and was arguably best in the Preakness.

[MNslappy]

After the race Stevens told the NBC reporter that he knew that race was over at the half mile mark.

[RXB]

Have to give Oxbow some credit.

Stevens has looked like he is "in the zone" in both the Derby ride and Preakness ride on Oxbow. He reminded me of some of his better 6.5 downhill turf rides, almost like riding the perfect line.

However, Oxbow is solid horse with early speed, who allowed Stevens to go fairly quickly from the gate and then begin slowing down the pace once into the 1st turn.

Once horse and rider went from a brisk start to simply a 'cruise' the race was over.

During that brisk start, Orb was forced to set up off the pace, and(without the benefit of hindsight) it would have been ill-advised for Rosario to move up the rail out of the gate inside of Goldencents.

But once Oxbow slowed to a cruise into the 1st turn, Orb was locked into a bad position. Rosario realized and tried to get closer, but it was an impossible task.

Mylute had a very clean trip in comparison with Orb, but ran well and was arguably best in the Preakness.

I agree with most of this; I'm just hesitant to be particularly effusive about Mylute's performance. He gave it a good effort but I don't think he ran any better than the top two.

[PhantomOnTour]

Mylute will always be a fraudulent horse to watch - he makes a huge move and then cannot finish.
For whatever reason...pace, bias, trip...folks keep making excuses for him.

I see him for what he is (imo ofcourse) a hanger....a Dollar Bill type who always makes you think that next time is gonna be his day.

[Robert Fischer]

If you think the Belmont pace will collapse(or even when thinking about the bottom of vertical exotics), Mylute looks like a significantly better option than Revolutionary.

Mylute was better in the Derby, and then just ran well in the Preakness, while Revolutionary will take more money.

[JPinMaryland]

I will pass on Belmont. It's extremely difficult to have any idea how these three year olds will do running a distance they have never run nor will ever run again. It seems like a total crap shot.

If I were to guess I would have thought Orb would have a decent shot (but not a value bet) due to his consistently running level fractions. I doubt he's going there next, he deserves some time off after a strong campaign.

ANother odd factor about Belmont is that the race doesn't really favor closers as far as I can recall. It would be hard to back a closer like Mylute

[PhantomOnTour]

If he runs in the Belmont we'll find out if he's Dollar Bill or Jazil

[Robert Fischer]

We may see a good pace in the Belmont with the field getting pretty strung out. If that happens, I could see Mylute coming up to run a non-threatening 2nd.

[JPinMaryland]

It was a problem in the Louisiana Derby although he [mylute] was hanging against a dead game horse who knows how to find the wire (remember Revolutionary's traffic filled win over the inner dirt?). ...

I watched that as well. It's hard to make any firm conclusions about a race like that, but it sort of reminded me of a horse, I think it was Any GIven Saturday, who lost a stretch run in the Tampa Bay derby in 2007. And then sort of hung in the Wood Memorial as well.

These types are actually really good for fitting in the bottom of exactas so I could be on board with Bobby's suggestion above.

EDIT: I see now he won the Haskell and Dwyer

[Valuist]

Mylute will always be a fraudulent horse to watch - he makes a huge move and then cannot finish.
For whatever reason...pace, bias, trip...folks keep making excuses for him.

I see him for what he is (imo ofcourse) a hanger....a Dollar Bill type who always makes you think that next time is gonna be his day.

So he hung in the Louisiana Derby, so we are just gonna label him a hanger/sucker horse that can never win? I don't know if he can get 12 furlongs but he's as sharp as a razor right now.

JP in Maryland- Any Given Saturday not only won the Haskell but took the measure of Curlin, in the process.

[JPinMaryland]

He looked like he was ahead of REv at some pt in the stretch of the LA derby but didn't really seem to dig in and want it. IN the derby I thought he kind of turned his head when eyeballed in the stretch. but I cant really recall.

I dunno you never know, just have to take stand at some pt. Good luck in the Belmont I have given up on that race..

[Robert Fischer]

IN the derby I thought he kind of turned his head when eyeballed in the stretch. but I cant really recall.


After the first 6 furlongs of the Kentucky Derby, Revolutionary and Mylute were roughly in the same spot

Final Half Mile (6f to 10f Kentucky Derby)


Position = Revolutionary +1.25 Lengths
[Revolutionary was 1 length behind and finished .25 Lengths in front]

Ground Loss = Mylute +4.6 Lengths [Mylute ran 46 more feet final 4f]

Total = Mylute +3.35 Lengths.


Mylute was roughly 3&1/3 Lengths faster for the final half mile of the Derby.

[JPinMaryland]

I like to study the running position as well as the final fractions for the derby runners in order to find value. Rough calculations show Orb coming home in about 25.9, Goldsoul 26 and Mylute 26.1. Obviously they were off the pace so how fast would they have run on a fast track? Is it good or very good?

I couldn't find any value in oxbow with come home times of 27.4 after a suicidal front running pace.

But obviously the track was deep and you have to make adjustments for that. Plus IMLD was blocked and oxbow was bumped. If you take off a sec for the track and maybe 1/3 for the bump.... maybe on a dry track Oxbow comes home in what 26? If so that's pretty damn good on the front end. by contrast SpendaBuck came home in 25.5 after a 1.10+ 3/4 and that's one of the greatest front running performances ever; these horses are running even faster...

Just really didn't like Oxs previous record it was uninspiring. Would up backing Governor Charlie/all.

Looking at it in retrospect; I'm not sure we can learn anything about the overall ranking of these horses based on these races. One race was a suicidal pace melt down; the other was a classic out in front on a slow pace. Both outcomes were highly influenced by pace.

Still confused.... :confused:

[classhandicapper]

Why does everyone think the Preakness pace was so slow?

Granted, the fractions were slow compared to what we are used to seeing and the winner was on the front end. However, when you consider how slow the final time was (the track was very slow) and compare the pace to the Pimlico Special at the same distance the previous day, it appears to be more of a neutral pace. Adjust the Preakness fractions for track speed and all of a sudden they don't look very slow. The pace looks neutral.

Pimlico Special

24 2/5 49 4/5 114 139 1/5 158 2/5
(leader the very fast and in form Eighttofasttocatch who was loose and comfortable but did not wire)

Preakness

23 4/5 48 3/5 113 1/5 138 157 2/5
(leader Oxbow, stalked by the fast Goldenscents, several lengths back to the very fast Titletown Five)

[burnsy]

Why does everyone think the Preakness pace was so slow?

Granted, the fractions were slow compared to what we are used to seeing and the winner was on the front end. However, when you consider how slow the final time was (the track was very slow) and compare the pace to the Pimlico Special at the same distance the previous day, it appears to be more of a neutral pace. Adjust the Preakness fractions for track speed and all of a sudden they don't look very slow. The pace looks neutral.

Pimlico Special

24 2/5 49 4/5 114 139 1/5 158 2/5
(leader the very fast and in form Eighttofasttocatch who was loose and comfortable but did not wire)

Preakness

23 4/5 48 3/5 113 1/5 138 157 2/5
(leader Oxbow, stalked by the fast Goldenscents, several lengths back to the very fast Titletown Five)

It wasn't slow....but it was not the derby either. The derby was a suicide pace. Horses that were with Oxbow early lost by some 30 to 50 lengths in the derby. Oxbow was in the picture until the final 16th, that was a tip off that he was a really good horse. Hes bred to run forever and his derby effort proved it even though he finished off the board. It also gave me the opinion that he is probably the best tactical speed horse at these distances. The new shooters were lacking in seasoning and class......as the derby is the key race in about 90% or more of the Preakness runnings. The top 4 came from the derby. From the derby outcome the only horse that really ran better than Oxbow was Orb. That horse (Oxbow) ran his balls off in the derby and it went under the radar. It was classic "pace relief", once he discouraged Goldencents early...it was over. Itsmyluckyday suffered from this trip (he had no help up front) but still ran really well and proved hes no fluke. Someone posted still confused :confused: . I'm not, until someone else proves different, the 3 best are Orb, Oxbow and Itsmyluckyday...........most of these others have proven they can't hang with these horses. Maybe Mylute, hes hung, but that seems to be what he does best, hes got to break through and win one.

[JPinMaryland]

How do you come out on Golden Soul? Not up there with these ones?

[pondman]

Someone posted still confused :confused: . I'm not, until someone else proves different, the 3 best are Orb, Oxbow and Itsmyluckyday..........

++++

These are the horses in the spots for bonuses. If Velasquez get's back on Itsmyluckyday, I'll consider a single. They've got the horse running in the right direction, and he's got more speed than all of these. Oxbow will be there. It still is early, but I'd agree those are probably the exotic choices. Hopefully you get more than 6 horses running.

[Valuist]

Why does everyone think the Preakness pace was so slow?

Granted, the fractions were slow compared to what we are used to seeing and the winner was on the front end. However, when you consider how slow the final time was (the track was very slow) and compare the pace to the Pimlico Special at the same distance the previous day, it appears to be more of a neutral pace. Adjust the Preakness fractions for track speed and all of a sudden they don't look very slow. The pace looks neutral.

Pimlico Special

24 2/5 49 4/5 114 139 1/5 158 2/5
(leader the very fast and in form Eighttofasttocatch who was loose and comfortable but did not wire)

Preakness

23 4/5 48 3/5 113 1/5 138 157 2/5
(leader Oxbow, stalked by the fast Goldenscents, several lengths back to the very fast Titletown Five)

The Pimlico Special was a crawlfest so I'm not sure that's a fair comparison. Eighttofasttocatch may have been in form but he was just galloping.