Great Jockeys do not equal great handicappers

[porchy44]

Jerry Bailey pretty much said on the air today that Oxbow did not have any chance beating Orb.

[Stillriledup]

These guys arent pro handicappers, id much rather listen to what a person who makes his living betting has to say than what a person who makes his living talking has to say.

[MightBeSosa]

There's no one on the air that makes a living betting.

[JackS]

Many years ago I was at the Cal State Fair and was sitting in the hotel bar talking horses with a jock that was riding the next days first race. He asked me who I liked and I told him. He told me that he was riding in that race and guaranteed me he would win. Based on this info, I decided to change my bet.
Long story short, he almost DID win but lost to my original pick by a nose.
The moral of this story- Avoid tips coming from jocks or trainers. They're all too blinded by their own stock which they will invaribly consider superior.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Now jockey agents whose livelihood depends on picking live mounts would be a different story focusing on the better agents. I know they are very hard working people always looking for an edge.

[Greyfox]

Jerry Bailey pretty much said on the air today that Oxbow did not have any chance beating Orb.

Most great jockeys are pretty good handicappers.
Most good handicappers did not envision Oxbow being a "lone speed" horse in this race.
If Lukas had a "rabbit" it would more than likely be Titletown.
When Stevens found himself going through soft fractions through the first four furlongs without pace pressure he knew that he'd be tough to beat.
He said words to the effect "the race was over after the first half mile."
Not too many good handicappers envisioned Orb coming up flat either.

The bottom line is most good jockeys study the Past Performances too and get an idea where their mount should fit in the general scheme of today's race to get maximum performance out of their horse.
Weaker jockeys don't seem to have that talent. Or if they do, they sometimes certainly look that they don't have a clue where the horse should be in a race.
Don't blame Jerry Bailey for getting it wrong.
He was part of a pretty big club of handicappers who never saw that race unfolding the way it did.