View Full Version : Official Preakness Analysis

05-18-2013, 03:30 PM
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/1.jpg Orb
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/7.jpg Will Take Charge
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/8.jpg Govenor Charlie
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/2.jpg Goldencents

I'm not going to write a whole lot this time around, because I think this race comes down to one thing, and one thing only....value (don't all races?)

Orb offers no value. Yes, he can certainly win, and is the most likely winner, but at 7-5 or even money he offers absolutely no value, so he won't have a penny of my money, except perhaps in some exactas with my value horses underneath.

That leaves me with the two horses I am going to concentrate on...Will Take Charge and Govenor Charlie.

Will Take Charge had a rough trip in the Derby, and proved for the second time that he most likely does not like a sloppy track. I doubt he'll be 12-1 when they spring the latch, but he doesn't have to be for me to bet him. I think Will Take Charge is the best bet in the Preakness, hands down.

Govenor Charlie is a lightly raced Bob Baffert colt who could be peaking right here, right now, but he's got that pesky Sunland race in his last start, which is the line I used to analyze him, and races from Sunland constantly let me down, so I am quite gun-shy with this one. But again, he doesn't have to be 12-1 for me to put some money on him. 5-1 would probably suffice, although I'd probably want a bit more considering my apprehension in using that Sunland race.

Goldencents might be worth a play also, depending on how quickly people forget that he was considered a major player in the Derby. He is in a much better position this time around, although I still think the distance is going to be his downfall. I would have to see double digit odds on this one before I consider playing him.

Here's how I see the running times: :45.3 1:09.3 1:54.5

Good luck to all!