Belmont Trip notes, SRU style. (May 11 and 12, 2013)

[Stillriledup]

Just got done watching some replays from Belmont over this past weekend, here are a few horses to 'watch' for future reference.

Feel free to be critical of any of the opinions below, or, feel free to tell me how smart i am. :D

May 11th, Race 1, Blue Creek.

The creek got buried inside behind a slow pace and finished with good run in a no shot spot. Probably better than his line looks.

May 11, Race 1, I love It.

Probably outclassed heading into the race, he got a slow start and never got into the race, but he's a nice looking horse with a nice stride and finished fairly well thru the wire, he can drop in class, he might be a nice pick next time off his 8th place finish.

May 11, Race 4, Readysetketch

He was entered and scratched a few times shopping for a spot, he picked this one and got stuck wide on a day where speed dominated. He made a nice wide move, very wide and finished evenly. Look for him to be more effective on a fast track next time, maybe with a class drop. He's a lot better than his bad PPs are going to look, on Feb 28th, he would have probably won that race if it wasnt for a very rough trip.

May 11, Race 5, Piscesbymoonlight.

Off long layoff, he was just shuffled far back and never got into the race. He seemed to finish fine thru the wire in this good prep. Decent looking horse with an ok stride, he might be ready next time to show what he's made of.

May 11, Race 6, Accelerare.

Pletcher firster didnt get out of the gate that well, rushed up to challenge talented Bad Hombre who was rolling on the lead, backed off, came again and held his ground. Seemed to make a few hidden moves in this race, pretty good performance for a firster, he seems to have some talent.

May 12, Race 3, Onthekisser.

Won the race by half length, but really looked strong at the wire. High knee action, but she really looked powerful and was a going away winner. nice mare, lets see what she can do next time.

May 12, Race 7, Let me be nuts.

Firster circled up wide while absolutely full of run, finished strong down the crown of the track when rail runners seemed to have an edge. This one really can run, hopefully she can duplicate this effort next time, she caught the eye for sure.

[Robert Fischer]

looks good :ThmbUp:

one of the Mods may want to put this in the Handicapping section.

Still reading through these.

[magwell]

Its a good list, lets hope they come back in spots we can get lucky and make some $ with........:ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

[Stillriledup]

Thanks for the positive comments Gents.

Adding a few more:

May 11, Race 3, Kimmies Lucky Star.

Made a nice eye catching backstretch move into contention chasing speedy (for the class) early pace. She kind of hung in there and went evenly to the wire. Any horse who can make any kind of move in this bottom class is one to watch, especially if they can make that move and sort of sustain it all the way. Kimmie kept digging vs the speed bias.

May 11th, Race 6, Charlie's Picnic.

Chased the pace while off the rail when speed was winning everything, kept plugging along and finished a nice 4th, he has a look about him and might have some power, this was an interesting debut. I think the top 4 in this field are all decent animals, Charlie ran well chasing some talented stock.

[cnollfan]

These are great notes, SRU.

[Stillriledup]

Thanks RF, Mags and Cnoll for the kudos. Appreciate it. :ThmbUp:

[Stillriledup]

2 of these coming back at Belmont in the next few days. Lets take a mythical 2 WPS on all of them in their next 2 starts and see what the ROI is at the end of it all. I'll try and keep track.

[magwell]

2 of these coming back at Belmont in the next few days. Lets take a mythical 2 WPS on all of them in their next 2 starts and see what the ROI is at the end of it all. I'll try and keep track. How about we look to see if we can bet them, providing they show up in the right spots ? ;)

[Stillriledup]

How about we look to see if we can bet them, providing they show up in the right spots ? ;)

There's a few maidens in the bunch and the some of the rest of them were horses who finished off the board, so its not likely that any of them will be going up in class in their next start. If i see one of them in a tough spot, i'll try and get on here and comment on it.

[Stillriledup]

The 2nd horse on my list, I Love It, is on the MTO list, but i would stay away from him in this spot as there appear to be a few monsters also on the MTO list, this is one i would hold off on in this particular race.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I'll be on the Saturday and Monday cards at Belmont.Thanks for this SRU.I'll give these guys an extra look.:ThmbUp:

[lamboguy]

i like the 7th race at Belmont today #7 OPPOSING PARTIES. there were chips taken out of this horse, he is going real good now and the easier spot got to help him.

[iceknight]

this is a post race comment, but I thought that in the 3rd race at Belmont (FRI 5/24/13) Jackfrost ofcourse had every reason to come out running in the stretch but got squeezed in the rail more than once and hampered. Still managed to squeeze it to second, while Temecula Creek won, but the margin was diminishing and it was not an even odds performance..

For free replays: http://www.nyra.com/belmont/videos/race-replay/BED/2013/20130524/1/pan/

[Stillriledup]

this is a post race comment, but I thought that in the 3rd race at Belmont (FRI 5/24/13) Jackfrost ofcourse had every reason to come out running in the stretch but got squeezed in the rail more than once and hampered. Still managed to squeeze it to second, while Temecula Creek won, but the margin was diminishing and it was not an even odds performance..

For free replays: http://www.nyra.com/belmont/videos/race-replay/BED/2013/20130524/1/pan/

He was sharp, seemed to gallop out with high energy also (a good sign for a cheap claimer).

[iceknight]

He was sharp, seemed to gallop out with high energy also (a good sign for a cheap claimer). Not only that, he tossed Lezcano...
http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/theraces/2013/05/tough-trip-for-abel-lezcano-in-the-third-at-belmont

[Stillriledup]

Not only that, he tossed Lezcano...
http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/theraces/2013/05/tough-trip-for-abel-lezcano-in-the-third-at-belmont

Same thing happened the other day on the turf with that firster from Chad Brown who won.

[Stillriledup]

Blue Creek, our first horse on the list, came back today to crush Race 1 at Belmont as the non favorite. Our Next runner, I love it, is slated to race in a few minutes. I'll add up my mythical 2WPS at the end of today's festivities.

[Stillriledup]

Our 2nd horse on the list, I Love It, finished a strong 3rd at 13-1 after getting going a little too late, full of run thru the wire. So, we cash a 2 dollar show ticket on him.

[Stillriledup]

Two wagers today, the top 2 horses on the list raced at Belmont today.

Wagered 12.00
Return: 16.70

[DeltaLover]

Great notes.

This posting revives an idea I had some time ago about creating a community side where we will keep trip notes, create a mechanism to rate them and notify us when a horse is reentered. I would like to know if there is any interest towards this direction since I think we might create a valuable tool.

[Stillriledup]

Appreciate the compliment DL.

:ThmbUp:

[Tom]

Great notes.

This posting revives an idea I had some time ago about creating a community side where we will keep trip notes, create a mechanism to rate them and notify us when a horse is reentered. I would like to know if there is any interest towards this direction since I think we might create a valuable tool.
Trip notes, race shapes, key races, physicality observations......a team of people that specialize in different facets, throwing it all in the pot and then we put together our own plates stew?

Interesting.....

[thaskalos]

Great notes.

This posting revives an idea I had some time ago about creating a community side where we will keep trip notes, create a mechanism to rate them and notify us when a horse is reentered. I would like to know if there is any interest towards this direction since I think we might create a valuable tool.
Good idea. Count me in.

Kudos to SRU for the reminder.

[DeltaLover]

I was thinking of a web interface where we will be able to log our notes, both in descriptive mode and to a more abbreviated format, something similar to what Beyer is proposing in his books. The system should be able to conceal the notes for a specific period to not allow multiple reviewers to influence each other. As the data base will be growing we will assign credit points to each reviewer using a voting scheme so each of us will have his creditability score...

I volunteer for the development and hosting of the platform although I have to admit that trip notes is not my expertize but I am sure that among us we have much more astute and capable race watchers..

[Stillriledup]

Two wagers today, the top 2 horses on the list raced at Belmont today.

Wagered 12.00
Return: 16.70

O for 2 today. The Be Nuts horse flopped hard and bounced to the moon and couldnt run a yard and the Kimmie horse was in a higher class, not sure why the connections rose her up the ladder, but both horses were up the track.

Totals so far.

Wagered 24.00
Return: 16.70

[Stillriledup]

Maybe this sloppy track weekend of May 11 and May 12 knocked these horses out, because many of my note horses havent run back.

Piscesbymoonlight races today at Belmont, i mention him in the first post of this writeup. He's 15-1 ML. That is a tough race he's in, so if he wins, you get a big price.

[cj]

...because many of my note horses havent run back.



Welcome to racing, 2013 style.

[Stillriledup]

Welcome to racing, 2013 style.

Yeah, i hear you. Almost 6 weeks have passed and nary a whisper from most of these.

[PhantomOnTour]

A horse on my list is running in the 8th at Bel today - Adirondack Dancer.
He moved into some fast splits and battled to the wire in his last off a long layoff, and I got lucky when the horse who outdueled him scratched today.
Chases Image Of Disco today at his best distance, can get it done but will need to hold off some strong closers
3-1 ML is no bargain

[Stillriledup]

A horse on my list is running in the 8th at Bel today - Adirondack Dancer.
He moved into some fast splits and battled to the wire in his last off a long layoff, and I got lucky when the horse who outdueled him scratched today.
Chases Image Of Disco today at his best distance, can get it done but will need to hold off some strong closers
3-1 ML is no bargain

Fwiw, AD is '2nd time gelding'.

I like the 5 in there, Jonrah. Looks like a nice animal on tape, big long strider with some talent. I like your horse too but going to lean to the longer price. The 2 Minnie Punt also could be ok, he was in an impossible spot off the layoff, ran in spots vs much better, in much more realistic spot today.

[PhantomOnTour]

Using Jonrah, but stickin with AD and keying on him - think he sits the nice trip off the pace.

win:
10
ex:
10 w 2-4-5-6
ex:
4-5 w 10

This #4 is interesting - facing some tough ones at Tam and was a length to Noble Tune on turf, but sits here at 14-1...seems awfully cold for a runner like him.

[Stillriledup]

Using Jonrah, but stickin with AD and keying on him - think he sits the nice trip off the pace.

win:
10
ex:
10 w 2-4-5-6
ex:
4-5 w 10

This #4 is interesting - facing some tough ones at Tam and was a length to Noble Tune on turf, but sits here at 14-1...seems awfully cold for a runner like him.

yes, 3rd time lasix, one acclimation race, class drop, no doubt he's got a shot.

[Stillriledup]

Using Jonrah, but stickin with AD and keying on him - think he sits the nice trip off the pace.

win:
10
ex:
10 w 2-4-5-6
ex:
4-5 w 10

This #4 is interesting - facing some tough ones at Tam and was a length to Noble Tune on turf, but sits here at 14-1...seems awfully cold for a runner like him.

Royal Blessing at 5-2 in the wagering with 10 MTP. that seems like a bad bet to me.

[Stillriledup]

2nd horse on the list, I love it, finally won today. He won at Parx.

[Stillriledup]

Thanks for the positive comments Gents.

Adding a few more:

May 11, Race 3, Kimmies Lucky Star.

Made a nice eye catching backstretch move into contention chasing speedy (for the class) early pace. She kind of hung in there and went evenly to the wire. Any horse who can make any kind of move in this bottom class is one to watch, especially if they can make that move and sort of sustain it all the way. Kimmie kept digging vs the speed bias.

May 11th, Race 6, Charlie's Picnic.

Chased the pace while off the rail when speed was winning everything, kept plugging along and finished a nice 4th, he has a look about him and might have some power, this was an interesting debut. I think the top 4 in this field are all decent animals, Charlie ran well chasing some talented stock.

Kimmie. She finally put it all together. (way too late for me of course) :bang:

[Stillriledup]

And it only took 4 months :lol:

(see the bottom horse listed in post 1)