Ky Derby winners in the Preakness

[RXB]

I compiled some stats on Ky Derby winners since 1970 running back in the Preakness. A total of 40 as three of those 43 Derby winners did not run in the Preakness. From this modest but not tiny sample, running style might affect adversely the chances of winning but not the chances of showing up in the exacta or tri. By Derby running style:

Back half 4f 17/4-8-1 24% win, 71% ex, 76% tri
Back half 6f 11/2-5-1 18% win, 63% ex, 73% tri

Front half 4f 23/12-1-4 52% win, 57% ex, 74% tri
Front half 6f 29/14-4-4 48% win, 62% ex, 76% tri

Total 40/16-9-5 40% win, 63% ex, 75% tri

Gives some pause to the idea of keying Orb on top at low odds, doesn't it? But equally it calls into question the idea of playing against him in the exotics.

(Horses positioned exactly on the median, e.g. 10th in a 19 horse field or 7th in a 13 horse field, are "back half.")

[1st time lasix]

Interesting....thanks! Throw in the inside bias at this specific distance at Pimlico and any Derby winner favorite might be vulnerable if he happens to draw outside. We might get a dry fast track as well. I generally wait for the Preakness draw before rendering any judgement. For the sport....and the public interest in the Belmont....I truly hope ORB wins. My actual $ play is conditional.

[RXB]

Last year when many people thought Bodemeister was a Preakness lock I compiled some 50-year stats showing that in fact it's generally a very bad idea to bet on a reversal of Derby finish positions in the Preakness. Sure enough, I'll Have Another was simply the better horse, his class overcame the lone-F advantage and he overtook Bodemeister again.

This year my contribution is to show that backrunners are perhaps the one type of Derby winner that you might want to take a shot against-- but in the win pool only. Now all I need is for Orb to run second to a horse that gets the jump on him and I will be two-for-two in the Timely Preakness Fact department.

[tucker6]

Last year when many people thought Bodemeister was a Preakness lock I compiled some 50-year stats showing that in fact it's generally a very bad idea to bet on a reversal of Derby finish positions in the Preakness. Sure enough, I'll Have Another was simply the better horse, his class overcame the lone-F advantage and he overtook Bodemeister again.

This year my contribution is to show that backrunners are perhaps the one type of Derby winner that you might want to take a shot against-- but in the win pool only. Now all I need is for Orb to run second to a horse that gets the jump on him and I will be two-for-two in the Timely Preakness Fact department.
Great stats, but the $1M question is why? Is it the shorter distance? Is the distance coupled with the short return time (2 weeks)? Fresh new horses? Race dynamics change with fewer participants?

[cnollfan]

Good post, RXB.

[Valuist]

Great stats, but the $1M question is why? Is it the shorter distance? Is the distance coupled with the short return time (2 weeks)? Fresh new horses? Race dynamics change with fewer participants?

We often see a very fast pace in the Derby, and the riders are all aware of what happened, so they adjust and the pace is usually softer. We know that Palace Malace won't be there, Falling Sky won't be there, and Verrazano won't be there.

Re: last year, IMO, I'll Have Another was much more impressive winning in the Preakness. Bodemeister wasn't completely spent, like he was in the final furlong of the Derby after setting a brutal pace.

[RXB]

Great stats, but the $1M question is why? Is it the shorter distance? Is the distance coupled with the short return time (2 weeks)? Fresh new horses? Race dynamics change with fewer participants?

Well, the % in the exacta tells you that in general it's not really a form issue. More often it's a case of a late runner not getting quite as favourable a set of circumstances in the Preakness and being held at bay by one of the horses with better early position. Hardly surprisingly for a dirt race.

The eight that finished second from the Back Half 4f Derby winners category:

-- Foolish Pleasure (7th early in Preakness) couldn't run down Master Derby who was close to the pace and took the lead on the turn
-- Genuine Risk (4th early), couldn't match Codex who was a couple of lengths ahead of her early and took a clear lead on the turn
-- Ferdinand (near the back early), couldn't catch Snow Chief who contested the early lead
-- Unbridled was behind Summer Squall (who was 4th early), caught him as they turned for home but was beaten decisively in the stretch
-- Fusaichi Pegasus (5th early) was ahead of Red Bullet (7th early) until Red Bullet put on a winning burst between the 1/4 and 1/8 poles
-- Street Sense (8th early) was behind Curlin (6th early) whom he passed with a dream inside run on the turn but couldn't hold off late
-- Mine That Bird (last early) couldn't run down Rachel Alexandra who contested the early lead
-- Animal Kingdom couldn't catch Shackleford who contested the early lead

So of those eight, only Fusaichi Pegasus lost to a horse who was farther back early. In five cases, the winner took the lead on the turn.

[tucker6]

Well, the % in the exacta tells you that in general it's not really a form issue. More often it's a case of a late runner not getting quite as favourable a set of circumstances in the Preakness and being held at bay by one of the horses with better early position. Hardly surprisingly for a dirt race.

The eight that finished second from the Back Half 4f Derby winners category:

-- Foolish Pleasure (7th early in Preakness) couldn't run down Master Derby who was close to the pace and took the lead on the turn
-- Genuine Risk (4th early), couldn't match Codex who was a couple of lengths ahead of her early and took a clear lead on the turn
-- Ferdinand (near the back early), couldn't catch Snow Chief who contested the early lead
-- Unbridled was behind Summer Squall (who was 4th early), caught him as they turned for home but was beaten decisively in the stretch
-- Fusaichi Pegasus (5th early) was ahead of Red Bullet (7th early) until Red Bullet put on a winning burst between the 1/4 and 1/8 poles
-- Street Sense (8th early) was behind Curlin (6th early) whom he passed with a dream inside run on the turn but couldn't hold off late
-- Mine That Bird (last early) couldn't run down Rachel Alexandra who contested the early lead
-- Animal Kingdom couldn't catch Shackleford who contested the early lead

So of those eight, only Fusaichi Pegasus lost to a horse who was farther back early. In five cases, the winner took the lead on the turn.
you're killing it in this thread RXB. Great info. One last question. How many of the winners in those 8 races were fresh (i.e., not Derby horses)?

[RXB]

you're killing it in this thread RXB. Great info. One last question. How many of the winners in those 8 races were fresh (i.e., not Derby horses)?

Three: Codex, Red Bullet, Rachel Alexandra.

Derby finishes for the other five: second (Summer Squall), third (Curlin), two fourths (Master Derby and Shackleford) and eleventh (Snow Chief).

[tucker6]

Three: Codex, Red Bullet, Rachel Alexandra.

Derby finishes for the other five: second (Summer Squall), third (Curlin), two fourths (Master Derby and Shackleford) and eleventh (Snow Chief).
Thanks, although I'd throw Rachel out as "new" since she raced in the Oaks that year. So generalizing your data, it shows that horses that race close to the lead and finished top 4 in their prior race do well in the Preakness.

[RXB]

So generalizing your data, it shows that horses that race close to the lead and finished top 4 in their prior race do well in the Preakness.

No, that's not a correct interpretation. The only things I've pointed out are:

1. Derby winners generally run well in the Preakness;
2. Backrunning Derby winners have tended to run second quite often in the Preakness, losing to a horse that runs more forwardly early.

[tucker6]

No, that's not a correct interpretation. The only things I've pointed out are:

1. Derby winners generally run well in the Preakness;
2. Backrunning Derby winners have tended to run second quite often in the Preakness, losing to a horse that runs more forwardly early.
Thanks for the correction.

[Golf man]

In your first set of stats where 17 horses were in the back half of 4f I interpret your info to be that 4 horses won, 8 horses placed and 1 showed.

I might have a little problem with your math here. If the total sample is 40, then the win, exacta and trifecta results for each set of data would be:

Back half at 4f: 10%/30%/32.5%
Back half at 6f: 5%/17.5%/20%

Front half at 4f: 30%/32.5%/42.5%
Front half at 6f: 35%/45%/55%


I compiled some stats on Ky Derby winners since 1970 running back in the Preakness. A total of 40 as three of those 43 Derby winners did not run in the Preakness. From this modest but not tiny sample, running style might affect adversely the chances of winning but not the chances of showing up in the exacta or tri. By Derby running style:

Back half 4f 17/4-8-1 24% win, 71% ex, 76% tri
Back half 6f 11/2-5-1 18% win, 63% ex, 73% tri

Front half 4f 23/12-1-4 52% win, 57% ex, 74% tri
Front half 6f 29/14-4-4 48% win, 62% ex, 76% tri

Total 40/16-9-5 40% win, 63% ex, 75% tri

Gives some pause to the idea of keying Orb on top at low odds, doesn't it? But equally it calls into question the idea of playing against him in the exotics.

(Horses positioned exactly on the median, e.g. 10th in a 19 horse field or 7th in a 13 horse field, are "back half.")

[Golf man]

In reply to one of your other concerns the Derby chart shows that Oxbow was 2nd at the mile call a half off the lead and faded to lose by 9.75 lengths, so that would fit your premise of a horse making a move and then fading at end.

Oxbow had a 3 position and 4 length lead on Orb 8 furlongs into the race.



Regards,

[RXB]

Golfman, I don't know what your last post is referring to.

Re: the post before that, I calculated the win/ex/tri %'s for the returning Derby winners in the Preakness that fit each running style category, which is a lot more useful that calculating %'s compared to an entire sample.

[pondman]

Total 40/16-9-5 40% win, 63% ex, 75% tri
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Nice work!
This tells me that a person would need to get at least 9-5 to break even on this bet. You'll be lucky to get 1-1. The exacta could pay less than $10. Wouldn't surprise me if it's at 3-5. Definitely a bet to avoid.

[Golf man]

.. Now all I need is for Orb to run second to a horse that gets the jump on him and I will be two-for-two in the Timely Preakness Fact department.

My 2nd post was in response to the above comment. The only horse running in the Preakness that had the jump on Orb in the Derby late in the race is Oxbow who should benefit from the shorter distance and stretch at Pimlico.

[iceknight]

Everybody watch Rosario get aggressive on Orb early and run away with the Preakness.
Excellent analysis... I am hoping (again) for a triple crown, so I do some loud wishful thinking occasionally!

[Ocala Mike]

Everybody watch Rosario get aggressive on Orb early and run away with the Preakness.


Joel would do well to watch a rerun of the 1973 Preakness involving another "stretch runner." Not saying Orb is another Secretariat, but I believe he's versatile enough to make a "Big Red" early move on Saturday.

[Tom]

Last 11 years, the Derby winner in the Preakness is 5-3-1, courtesy Xpressbet Preakness Guide.

[Valuist]

Sloppy or muddy tracks in the Derby can make finish positions irrevelant, at least for those that clearly hated the off track.

[Al Gobbi]

Since 1990 there have been five Preakness that have had a field of nine or less run in the race (90', 91', 00', 06', 07') and each case the Derby winner did not win the second leg.

1990 - Unbridled (2nd)
1991 - Strike The Gold (up the track, 6th)
2000 - Fusaichi Pegasus (thought to be a complete lock, 2nd)
2006 - Barbaro (broke down, DNF)
2007 - Street Sense (caught late, 2nd)

[thaskalos]

Since 1990 there have been five Preakness that have had a field of nine or less run in the race (90', 91', 00', 06', 07') and each case the Derby winner did not win the second leg.

1990 - Unbridled (2nd)
1991 - Strike The Gold (up the track, 6th)
2000 - Fusaichi Pegasus (thought to be a complete lock, 2nd)
2006 - Barbaro (broke down, DNF)
2007 - Street Sense (caught late, 2nd)

2013 - Orb (thought to be a complete lock)...2nd! :cool:

[Saratoga_Mike]

RXB - your stats here turned out to be very prescient - nice work.