Quirin points

[raybo]

I'm trying to calculate Quirin points in Excel and I don't understand if you only go back up to 5 races to find 3 qualified races, for each horse's points, or if you go back as far as you need to get 3 qualified races. It appears that Brisnet is not using Quirin rules, exactly, that's why I'm doing the calculations myself.

[Uncle Salty]

I believe he recommended going back only 5-6 races, unless it's you need a line for a specific surface and then you can go back a little further.

[Overlay]

I'm not certain how the Brisnet speed-point algorithm is set up, but Quirin's original rule was that you start out by basing the speed-point total on using the horse's three most recent races. If one of those three races qualifies for a "bye" according to Quirin's rules for byes, you toss that race out and then look at the fourth race back in an attempt to find three "ratable" races for the horse. If a second race in the horse's top four races also qualifies for a "bye", then you go to the fifth race back trying to find three "ratable" races for the horse. But that is as far back as you go. If you've gone back five races in the horse's record, and the horse still does not have three ratable races, you use however many ratable races the horse has in its record to that point (even if that number is less than three) to calculate the horse's speed-point total. (Of course, you also have to figure in the one "automatic" point that each horse receives at the start of speed-point calculation.) The most points that a horse with less than three ratable races can earn is five (for a horse with two ratable races), three (for a horse with only one ratable race), or one (for a horse with no ratable races). (For a horse that does not earn any speed points besides its one "automatic" point, you also have to determine if its first-call running positions in its ratable races were sufficiently bad that even its one "automatic" point should be taken away.) (And horses with less than three starts total in their past performances have their speed-point totals projected according to the values that Quirin furnished.)

[raybo]

I'm not certain how the Brisnet speed-point algorithm is set up, but Quirin's original rule was that you start out by basing the speed-point total on using the horse's three most recent races. If one of those three races qualifies for a "bye" according to Quirin's rules for byes, you toss that race out and then look at the fourth race back in an attempt to find three "ratable" races for the horse. If a second race in the horse's top four races also qualifies for a "bye", then you go to the fifth race back trying to find three "ratable" races for the horse. But that is as far back as you go. If you've gone back five races in the horse's record, and the horse still does not have three ratable races, you use however many ratable races the horse has in its record to that point (even if that number is less than three) to calculate the horse's speed-point total. (Of course, you also have to figure in the one "automatic" point that each horse receives at the start of speed-point calculation.) The most points that a horse with less than three ratable races can earn is five (for a horse with two ratable races), three (for a horse with only one ratable race), or one (for a horse with no ratable races). (For a horse that does not earn any speed points besides its one "automatic" point, you also have to determine if its first-call running positions in its ratable races were sufficiently bad that even its one "automatic" point should be taken away.) (And horses with less than three starts total in their past performances have their speed-point totals projected according to the values that Quirin furnished.)

Thanks! The bolded portion of your post seems to be the sticking point between Brisnet's Quirin calcs and Quirin's explanation of the calculations. I can get the points to match Brisnet's except for that portion.

[raybo]

Ok, I see another thing that Brisnet is not doing according to the Quirin rules. If today's race is a route race, I can find no mention of a "bye" rule anywhere, like in sprint races which do have "bye" rules. Brisnet only considers past route races, if today's race is a route race. in other words, they are giving sprint races a "bye" if today's race is a route race.

Am I missing something here? If there is a "bye" scenario, if today's race is a route, will someone please point me to that rule?

[Dave Schwartz]

I spent several months (about 10 years ago) tweaking the Quirin approach to ES points.

Ultimately, the only thing I could improve was the "lightly raced horse" and the 5 race maximum (for byes in route races) rules.

I found that the rest worked very well.

[raybo]

I spent several months (about 10 years ago) tweaking the Quirin approach to ES points.

Ultimately, the only thing I could improve was the "lightly raced horse" and the 5 race maximum (for byes in route races) rules.

I found that the rest worked very well.

So, are you saying there are bye rules for sprint races but there aren't any bye rules for route races? If, so then you agree with Gordon Pine, which appears to be a pretty good representation of Quirin's rules, although I can't find Quirin's original rules, at present. Pine's rules say there are byes for sprints, but not for routes.

Quinn, on the other hand says there is a bye in route races if the past race was a sprint and the horse wasn't 1,2 or3 at the 1st call or <=6 BLs at the 1st call.

I wish someone would post Quirin's original rules, so I'd know where to start my testing from.

[Overlay]

Under Quirin's original rules, if a horse is running in a sprint race today, it cannot earn any speed points for a prior route race (that is, a race of one mile or more). The best that the horse can do is to earn a bye for the previous route race. The horse running in a sprint today earns a bye for a previous route race if it was leading or running within one length of the leader at the first call of the route race. If the horse does earn a bye for a previous route race, that race is disregarded, and you then go back one more race in the horse's record (but no farther than the fifth race back) to try to find three ratable races for the horse. However, if a horse running in a sprint today fails to earn a bye for a previous route race, the route race counts as one of the horse's three ratable races, and it receives zero speed points for it.

Also, for a horse running in a sprint today that is shorter than seven furlongs, it must have been leading at the first call of any prior seven-furlong race to receive two speed points for that race. Otherwise, even if it was running second or third, and was also within two lengths of the leader in the seven-furlong race, the most that the horse can earn for the seven-furlong race is one speed point.

For a horse that is running in a route today, prior sprint races can only help the horse; they cannot hurt it. The horse earns one speed point for having run first, second, or third at the first call of the prior sprint. The horse would earn a second point if it was leading, or running within six lengths of the leader at the first call of the prior sprint. If it was both running first, second, or third, and leading or within six lengths of the leader in the prior sprint, it recieves two speed points for that race. If the horse running in a route today was running neither first, second, or third, nor within six lengths of the leader at the first call of the prior sprint, then the prior sprint is disregarded, and you go back one moe race in the horse's record (but no farther tan the fifth race back) in an attempt to find three ratable races for the horse.

[raybo]

Under Quirin's original rules, if a horse is running in a sprint race today, it cannot earn any speed points for a prior route race (that is, a race of one mile or more). The best that the horse can do is to earn a bye for the previous route race. The horse earns a bye for a previous route race if it was leading or running within one length of the leader at the first call of the route race. If the horse does earn a bye for a previous route race, that race is disregarded, and you then go back one more race in the horse's record (but no farther than the fifth race back) to try to find three ratable races for the horse. However, if a horse running in a sprint today fails to earn a bye for a previous route race, the route race counts as one of the horse's three ratable races, and it receives zero speed points for it.

Also, for a horse running in a sprint that is shorter than seven furlongs today, it must have been leading at the first call of any prior seven-furlong race to receive two speed points for that race. Otherwise, even if it was running second or third, and was also within two lengths of the leader in the seven-furlong race, the most that the horse can earn for the seven-furlong race is one speed point.

Prior sprint races can only help a horse that is running in a route today. The horse earns one point for having first, second, or third at the first call of the prior sprint. The horse would earn a second point if it was leading, or running within six lengths of the leader at the first call of the prior sprint. If it was both running first, second, or third, and leading or within six lengths of the leader in the prior sprint, it recieves two speed points for that race. If the horse running in a route today was running neither first, second, or third, nor within six lengths of the leader at the first call of the prior sprint, then the prior sprint is disregarded, and you go back one moe race in the horse's record (but no farther tan the fifth race back) in an attempt to find three ratable races for the horse.

If the bolded portion is, truly, Quirin's original rule then I will use that, even though it makes little sense to me. It appears that if the horse ran bad in a sprint race then he ran a bad race, not necessarily just because it was at a sprint distance. We're only talking about the 1st call, not the rest of the race, after all.

Anyway, thank you for posting Quirin's original rules!! Appreciate it.

[Dave Schwartz]

Quinn, on the other hand says there is a bye in route races if the past race was a sprint and the horse wasn't 1,2 or3 at the 1st call or <=6 BLs at the 1st call.

The only byes are:

1) Today's race is a route and the paceline being considered is a sprint. Then, the above rule applies.

I use that rule except I will go back farther than 5 races to find a sprint that qualifies. (This is my change.)


The other rule I have changed has to do with the lightly-raced horse. If a horse has one race and was the leader in that race, he gets 7 points. If he has two races and he was the leader in both of those, he gets 8 points.

Quirin's is slightly different. The max he can get is 5 points, plus the 1st point = 6 points total.

[Dan Montilion]

In regards to the lightly raced horse. I understand this will not be off any help to the program/computer handicappers. I handle them like this. If a horse earns the position call and lengths call in debut he has those 2 points plus the bonus. I then give credit for races to be run in full. So said horse would be recorded 3/7 so actual QSP and the 4 that has a chance to earn in next two. A two race starter with a total of 4 actual recorded has a chance for two more in next start. I would record 4/6.

[raybo]

The only byes are:

1) Today's race is a route and the paceline being considered is a sprint. Then, the above rule applies.

I use that rule except I will go back farther than 5 races to find a sprint that qualifies. (This is my change.)


The other rule I have changed has to do with the lightly-raced horse. If a horse has one race and was the leader in that race, he gets 7 points. If he has two races and he was the leader in both of those, he gets 8 points.

Quirin's is slightly different. The max he can get is 5 points, plus the 1st point = 6 points total.

Ok, the only confusion left for me is: in the prior sprint race, if the horse meets the position requirement, but not the BLs requirement, does it still get the bye (or vice versa), or must it meet both the position requirement AND the BLs requirement to get the bye? To me, "or" means it can meet one or the other and get a bye, while "nor" means he must meet both requirements to get the bye.

I've been at this way too long and starting go gaga!

[Dave Schwartz]

Ok, the only confusion left for me is: in the prior sprint race, if the horse meets the position requirement, but not the BLs requirement, does it still get the bye (or vice versa),

No.

The whole idea is that a router in a sprint race is forgiven if he doesn't get points. After all, he isn't SUPPOSED to be able to go to the front in a sprint.

[raybo]

No.

The whole idea is that a router in a sprint race is forgiven if he doesn't get points. After all, he isn't SUPPOSED to be able to go to the front in a sprint.

Thanks Dave!

[Overlay]

Ray,

As an additional reference, I just sent you a PM with Quirin's text from Winning at the Races verbatim.

[raybo]

Ray,

As an additional reference, I just sent you a PM with Quirin's text from Winning at the Races verbatim.

Got it! Thanks a bunch!!

[Capper Al]

I rediscovered the value in Quirin points after reading Giles.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I've resisted this thread for a while.This,while a great system which between Quirin and Giles have changed the game by making it tangible for probable pace,making it visual.If you are so far removed from the game to where you cant recognize a pace style difference in the here and now.That you don't want to think about it at all and be on "Automaton".If it works for you overall,hats off big dog.Don't pretend you know anything about probable pace if your ultimate goal is to never think about it though.