Gr2 Peter Pan - BEL SAT Race 9

[Robert Fischer]

Looks like a solid field.

here are some that I like.

:1: FREEDOM CHILD looks best to me. Put a line through the Wood. Had some big races previously. If he has been well trained, and is healthy he should be a strong contender here.

:5: ABRAHAM start was a little rough in the Illinois Derby. Hasn't shown a big talent level, but he's right there, and also dangerous to improve.

:7: SAINT VIGEUR good racehorse in good form for a good barn. He probably didn't run as well as Freedom Child when they met at Gulfstream, and he could take a lot more money, but you get what looks like a more consistent betting proposition.



Pretty deep race, lots of alternatives here.

[Some_One]

Pretty deep race, lots of alternatives here.

I think thats a key statement to where I would have to pass this race, I have no confidence if this race's pace is setup for an E or L, if it is E, the fav (5) is not a standout, but not a clearcut choice. On the L side, the 2nd choice ( :8: ) has pluses and minuses too. I will probably say if you have this in a multi race wager, key the fav and pray you get through, because if the public is wrong, who knows which one of the other 10 will popup for the win.

[pondman]

:10: if I could own one of these it would be incognito. Not sure how much this horse is worth, but I'd be more than willing to take it to the Breeder Cup. Expect big things from this one! Holly Molly!

[Robert Fischer]

:8: DECLAN'S WARRIOR SCRATCHED


may throw the 4 in with my 1-5-7. Undecided. He didn't make much impact even with a decent trip in the Bluegrass, but looked OK visually. IMO best valued closer.

[Stillriledup]

Is there anyone NOT selecting Freedom Child? Every 'wise guy' loves the horse today for some reason.

Too bad about Declan scratching, he was going to be a closing sprinter who i was going to throw out off all my tickets.

[Robert Fischer]

Is there anyone NOT selecting Freedom Child? Every 'wise guy' loves the horse today for some reason.

Too bad about Declan scratching, he was going to be a closing sprinter who i was going to throw out off all my tickets.

yea, thought he would take some action

[iceknight]

:11: Infinite Magic gets my money.

has Edgar Prado while the is new to dirt/ny, seems like a worthy play at a price.

the :7: Saint Viguer , if this one is improving well, imo., this one and :1: Freedom Child are very close, and :10: incognito to round off a 2.40 superfecta box.

[PhantomOnTour]

I am liking the :5: :9: :10: as of now.

Don't see the appeal of Saint Vigeur - not trying to sound cute, but he looks quite a bit slower than the best in here.
Freedom Child is getting play because he looks like the chief speed and may get clear easily. In his maiden breaker he set a good pace and dusted the field, which included a pretty good one in Bellarmine...he also beat Revolutionary last year and was close to Orb. Plus, he was actually able to reach contention in the Wood despite the disaster at the start.
I will try to beat this guy though.
Abraham is likely to be underlaid, so here's the play:

ex: 9-10 w 1-5-9-10
win: 10

I think Incognito is set to run a good one today.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Is there anyone NOT selecting Freedom Child? Every 'wise guy' loves the horse today for some reason.

Too bad about Declan scratching, he was going to be a closing sprinter who i was going to throw out off all my tickets.


Me. I'm going with Incognito, which, come to think of it, would probably lock up the win for Freedom Child. :)

[BlueChip@DRF]

I am liking the :5: :9: :10: as of now.

Don't see the appeal of Saint Vigeur - not trying to sound cute, but he looks quite a bit slower than the best in here.

I think they are looking at his maiden win as a key race. He and the 2nd, 3rd, 4th finishers all went on to win in their next out - Freedom Child finished 3rd in that maiden race.

Actually, I should root for Saint Vigeur as it would make Black Onyx look a bit more respectable.

[Robert Fischer]

Is there anyone NOT selecting Freedom Child? Every 'wise guy' loves the horse today for some reason.

boy.. Freedom Child opens at 5/2 :bang:

Saint Vigeur is 7-1 and may be the better win value if this holds.
1-5-7 exacta paying so good, I will back it up with a 1-4-5-7.

[MightBeSosa]

3mtp,

The ml was ludicrous, on the :1:.

That said, if he breaks on top, can win it. gets shuf bk, doubtful

[Stillriledup]

Wise Guys CRUSH! :ThmbUp:

[BlueChip@DRF]

Yeah, he might have not made things easy and challenged Verrazano for that lead in the Wood.

[MightBeSosa]

Nice job by Saez off the not so great break.

According to a certain commentator this horse just won with 400 lbs up.

[Stillriledup]

boy.. Freedom Child opens at 5/2 :bang:

Saint Vigeur is 7-1 and may be the better win value if this holds.
1-5-7 exacta paying so good, I will back it up with a 1-4-5-7.

Mike Watchmaker had a "9" page writeup why FC couldnt possibly get beat.

If he was 5-2 ML he might have paid 9 bucks :D

[PhantomOnTour]

Wow - I spell out Freedom Child's credentials and then play him underneath :faint:

Can't wait to get to Baltimore and play a different track next week, Pimlico.
Belmont is wasting me so far this meet

EDIT: actually, I am wasting myself by making terrible decisions

[iceknight]

boy.. Freedom Child opens at 5/2 :bang:

Saint Vigeur is 7-1 and may be the better win value if this holds.
1-5-7 exacta paying so good, I will back it up with a 1-4-5-7. Good call on the 1-5-7 ex (box or keyed?)

[Robert Fischer]

boxed and then backed up w/ 1-4-5-7

[PhantomOnTour]

Yeah, he might have not made things easy and challenged Verrazano for that lead in the Wood.
Silly notion, but if he breaks well in the Wood and takes it to Verrazano we may have seen Normandy nail him late...and I bet Verrazano wouldn't have even run in the Derby.

Nice call Robert :ThmbUp:

[iceknight]

So...can we truly expect good things from Black Onyx now?

[BlueChip@DRF]

So...can we truly expect good things from Black Onyx now?
I wish I could bet him at his Derby odds.

[Robert Fischer]

Freedom Child is now pointed to the Belmont.

Hopefully we have a Triple Crown in the balance.

[Stillriledup]

Freedom Child is now pointed to the Belmont.

Hopefully we have a Triple Crown in the balance.

He was a pretty good 40-1 shot in the wood retrospectively. i was alive with him in all sorts of pick 4s and when he got refunded, i ended up on V'zano and cashed anyway!

[pandy]

Freedom Child was the "wise guy" horse today. If you want to study "trip" handicapping, check out his Wood Memorial effort on video from April 6. They opened the gate a bit too soon and he lost 7 lengths, rushed up and gained ground rapidly while fighting the rider who tried to rate him, settled down a bit but then made another big wide move on the turn to get within 2.5 lengths of the leader before tiring in the stretch, a huge effort and the jockey obviously eased him down the lane. He also has a terrific off track pedigree so everything set up nicely for him today.

[Robert Fischer]

Nice job by Saez off the not so great break.

According to a certain commentator this horse just won with 400 lbs up.
True. :ThmbUp:

Good thing a horse doesn't know his expectations, or the wise-guy hype, or the hopes of his connections.

If this horse had been in the hands of more of a "super-trainer", I may have overbet my bankroll on him. Albertrani is a good trainer, I shouldn't have been worried.

As far as talent is concerned, Freedom Child has the power and physique of Curlin and the running-style of Big Brown. :eek:

How is that for high praise? Good thing horses can't read message boards.


Freedom Child was the "wise guy" horse today. If you want to study "trip" handicapping, check out his Wood Memorial effort on video from April 6. They opened the gate a bit too soon and he lost 7 lengths, rushed up and gained ground rapidly while fighting the rider who tried to rate him, settled down a bit but then made another big wide move on the turn to get within 2.5 lengths of the leader before tiring in the stretch, a huge effort and the jockey obviously eased him down the lane. He also has a terrific off track pedigree so everything set up nicely for him today.

Oh man. The Wood is a good example.:ThmbUp:
So many times, the results make a much stronger impression than how the race was actually run. His results were last of 10, but his performance was anywhere in the top-3 or 4.
The Wood also drew a lot of attention due to the starter issue.

His trips actually began before the Wood.

2/9 vs Saint Vigeur = He drew wide with that short run to the first turn. Including ground loss he was significantly faster over the 8.5F (37.3 MPH VS. 37.0 MPH) than the winner Saint Vigeur. I actually give some credit to the actual winner because in general a better horse can often work a better trip. This time it was the post position of doom.


3/10 - going 9f he drew wide again :bang:. He ran a devastating performance. Right up there with the top 10 3yo route races of the year. In spite of the post of doom, (his 9F MPH was 37.0, while a stakes level horse Bellermine was next best with 36.6.) :eek::eek:
Basically he stretched out to 9F and ran as fast as Saint Vigeur ran going 8.5F. And he completely crushed a good racehorse like Bellarmine.

So he has a number of BIG performances already, and his Peter Pan was in reality, pretty close to where he has been performing.

[Valuist]

How about that late Pic 4 at Belmont? $2 parlay was $270 but the $2 Pic 4 was $803. You rarely see that with low prices; fairly heavy favorites won the first 2 legs. I think both Amberjack and Freedom Child were bet much more heavily than expected in the win pool, and you had a deep also-eligible draw in to win the finale.

[iceknight]

How about that late Pic 4 at Belmont? $2 parlay was $270 but the $2 Pic 4 was $803. You rarely see that with low prices; fairly heavy favorites won the first 2 legs. I think both Amberjack and Freedom Child were bet much more heavily than expected in the win pool, and you had a deep also-eligible draw in to win the finale. I never understand this (comparison). With $2 parlay you are risking ONLY $2 and you have to be right with only choice in each round. With the pick 4, you can obviously spread your bets and you are also investing more.. (so more is in the pool).

[MightBeSosa]

those factors have nothing to do with calculation of value, or the payoffs themselves

the main reason p-4 is value, is 1 takeout. so it should ALWAYS pay more than the parlay.

In case you haven't noticed, most dd's pay more than the parlay, and thats only 2 races.

when you get betdowns, and that crowd isnt all over it in the multis, you also get skewed payoffs.

[Stillriledup]

How about that late Pic 4 at Belmont? $2 parlay was $270 but the $2 Pic 4 was $803. You rarely see that with low prices; fairly heavy favorites won the first 2 legs. I think both Amberjack and Freedom Child were bet much more heavily than expected in the win pool, and you had a deep also-eligible draw in to win the finale.

There's always a ton of horizontal value on sloppy days....handicappers go race by race and adjust to conditions and scratches, so you will get value if you bet '4 races in advance' in a pick 4.

[Robert Fischer]

I never understand this (comparison). With $2 parlay you are risking ONLY $2 and you have to be right with only choice in each round. With the pick 4, you can obviously spread your bets and you are also investing more.. (so more is in the pool).

That's a good point. I'd like to see some more experienced multi-race players add some insight.


I'll try to work out a parlay and compare it to the pick 4.


SELECTIONS:
r7 Joe Allan (single)
r8 Amberjack, Quiet Moon
r9 Freedom Child (single)
r10 Derby Watch, Scandalo, Economic Forecast


(1x2x1x3) $2 Pick 4 costs $12
$2 Pick 4 returns $803


Comparing the parlay we have to start with $12 bank.

$12 win on Joe Allan returns $25.20 [bank=$25.20]
parlay = $12Win on Amberjack AND Quiet Moon returns $29.40 [bank=$30.60]
parlay = $30Win on Freedom Child returns $138 [bank=$138.60]
parlay = $46Win win on Derby Watch, Scandalo, Economic Forecast returns $262.20[bank=$262.80]

$12 Parlay costs $12
$12 Parlay returns $262.80

[Valuist]

I think one of the real keys is when an also-eligible wins one of the later races in the sequence. We can think that the racetrack win pools are MOSTLY efficient, and when AEs draw in, by post time the wins pools are usually (but not always, efficient). But I believe AEs are almost always value in the later races of P3s and P4s; there's always some handicappers who are too lazy to handicap the AEs. I think this isn't really the case where there's only 7 runners and 2 MTOs. I'm talking about 12 regular runners plus another 4 AEs. That's when they are most likely to be overlooked.

[Stillriledup]

I think one of the real keys is when an also-eligible wins one of the later races in the sequence. We can think that the racetrack win pools are MOSTLY efficient, and when AEs draw in, by post time the wins pools are usually (but not always, efficient). But I believe AEs are almost always value in the later races of P3s and P4s; there's always some handicappers who are too lazy to handicap the AEs. I think this isn't really the case where there's only 7 runners and 2 MTOs. I'm talking about 12 regular runners plus another 4 AEs. That's when they are most likely to be overlooked.

That's a great point. I also think that its really hard to structure accurate pick 4s when you really dont have the scratches till 1 hour before the first race. I know personally when there's shaky weather and i know there's going to be changes, i just skip horizontal bets and concentrate on a race by race basis.

[classhandicapper]

I wish Freedom Child wasn't going to the Belmont. He's not going to take a lot of money in the Belmont. I'd prefer he run in a competitive race where he'd take a lot of money. Then I might be able to make a play against him on the assumption that the heavily speed favoring track Saturday made him look better than he actually is. Plus, IMO this edition of the Peter Pan was more of a Grade 3 event than Grade 2.

[Robert Fischer]

I wish Freedom Child wasn't going to the Belmont. He's not going to take a lot of money in the Belmont. I'd prefer he run in a competitive race where he'd take a lot of money. Then I might be able to make a play against him on the assumption that the heavily speed favoring track Saturday made him look better than he actually is. Plus, IMO this edition of the Peter Pan was more of a Grade 3 event than Grade 2.

After he wins the Belmont, he'll take a lot of money in the Jim Dandy, and you can play against him then :D

He's no 1 hit wonder
PDpMu8Tmi-s

[classhandicapper]

After he wins the Belmont, he'll take a lot of money in the Jim Dandy, and you can play against him then :D

He's no 1 hit wonder
PDpMu8Tmi-s

There's a huge difference between thinking a horse is a 1 hit wonder and thinking he's not 12 lengths better than a Grade 2 field. I don't think he's a 1 hit wonder, but I also don't think he's a monster, at least at this stage of his development.

He was best Saturday, but I think the track condition and the weakness of that field probably added to the visual effect and winning margin of his performance. For that reason he "may" be overbet going forward. I would suggest you look at the rest of the results at Belmont Saturday.

[Tom]

First thing I thought when I saw the replay and big winning margin was this guy will be nice bet against next time.

[Robert Fischer]

Did you guys see a horse plod around and have the slop extend his lead in the stretch?

Looked to me like a horse that was clear at the half, extended his margin at 6F, was well clear when about to enter the stretch.
In other words he ran those horses off the feet, and could have done it on the slop or on the moon.


27xask-jwTI


Was he 13.25 better? Who knows. I'm certainly not good enough to count lengths in a variety of races. Maybe he was only 5,6,7 lengths better. It's very possible.

Did you guys see his maiden win?
Going wide into the first turn costs maybe 2-5 lengths alone(in addition to distance limiting some horses) +18(1.8L) more feet of distance + he physically won that race by 5 Lengths. So conservatively maybe 8 Lengths better?

There is no doubt whatsoever that he is right with top of the crop's grade in terms of talent.

Sure, whenever you see a margin like that, look to bet against, but if you put in the work and then happen to come up with a rare grade 1 talent, save your money unless you think he's overbet in the Belmont vs. Orb and company.
If a triple crown is at stake, Orb could be 8-5 in the Belmont.

[classhandicapper]

Did you guys see a horse plod around and have the slop extend his lead in the stretch?

Looked to me like a horse that was clear at the half, extended his margin at 6F, was 10Lengths ahead when about to enter the stretch.
In other words he ran those horses off the feet, and could have done it on the slop or on the moon.


27xask-jwTI


Was he 13.25 better? Who knows. I'm certainly not good enough to count lengths in a variety of races. Maybe he was only 5,6,7 lengths better. It's very possible.

Did you guys see his maiden win?
Going wide into the first turn costs maybe 2-5 lengths alone(in addition to distance limiting some horses) +18(1.8L) more feet of distance + he physically won that race by 5 Lengths. So conservatively maybe 8 Lengths better?

There is no doubt whatsoever that he is right with top of the crop's grade in terms of talent.

Sure, whenever you see a margin like that, look to bet against, but if you put in the work and then happen to come up with a rare grade 1 talent, save your money unless you think he's overbet in the Belmont vs. Orb and company.
If a triple crown is at stake, Orb could be 8-5 in the Belmont.

My feeling on him going into the day was that he was a very impressive maiden winner and the speed of the speeds in a weak Peter Pan. As I watched the races Saturday, it became obvious that most horses that made the lead were not backing up, even if they set fast paces. In fact, some of the jockeys realized it and were using their horses early just to get the lead, but they were still not backing up.

So I'm not sure how much of him drawing away was the track carrying his already known excellent speed and how much was that he was that good.

IMHO it's often an unknowable thing until after the fact.

As impressive as he was as a maiden graduate, I don't think that performance suggested he was among the best 3YOs in the country yet.

So IMHO the correct stance to assume he's an up and coming 3YO that may or may not be among the best in the country - until such time he shows he can do the same thing on an unbiased fast surface against top horses.

If he gets bet next time like the Peter Pan was 100% for certain real, then IMO he's over bet.

If he gets bet like the Peter Pan was a definite biased aided fluke, then you bet ON him and hope he's THAT good.

If he gets bet somewhere in between, there's probably no value either way.

That's my approach.