Trackmaster Class and Speed Ratings

[traynor]

Has anyone studied these over time to determine how accurate/useful they are? For thoroughbreds, for harness, or both?

[CincyHorseplayer]

You could probably ask Al about the class ratings,I think he uses them.Their speed and pace figures are so bad though I think they are impossible to use.Compared to CJ's figs,Trackmaster was so bad that I stopped using RDSS because I couldn't trust any of their figures and I love the elements in RDSS.

[Capper Al]

I use BRIS class ratings. My impression was that trackmaster's class ratings weren't as good.

[MPRanger]

I use BRIS class ratings. My impression was that trackmaster's class ratings weren't as good.


I like the TM ratings. They're cheap, easily available and accurate. I use them to sort out and order my class contenders before using other filters. It works great. It's fast. You could never make pace figures from Beyer numbers as accurate as the TM pace figs because Beyer numbers do not account for the runup and TM figs do.

[cj]

You could never make pace figures from Beyer numbers as accurate as the TM pace figs because Beyer numbers do not account for the runup and TM figs do.

I'd love to see the evidence of this.

[MPRanger]

I'd love to see the evidence of this.



Ok, first I don't need to make the case about Beyer numbers not accounting for the runup do I? He wrote three books on it explaining every detail. He didn't mention the runup til he wrote Beyer On Speed in the chapter The Mathematics of Pace ( I think).


Here David Siegel president of Trackmaster explains how their figures are made.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OHaEnuBNXuY

See Section 2, Race Adjustments at about 9 minutes into the video For the discussion of the runup.

[traynor]

I like the TM ratings. They're cheap, easily available and accurate. I use them to sort out and order my class contenders before using other filters. It works great. It's fast. You could never make pace figures from Beyer numbers as accurate as the TM pace figs because Beyer numbers do not account for the runup and TM figs do.

My interest is not entirely personal. I have been trying to develop a quick-and-easy application for novices, to give them an idea of what can be done with relatively simple software. My intention was (and is) to make it available for free to anyone who wants it.

The kicker is that it has to be manual entry--to avoid the "off-putting" initial cost of data subscriptions that keeps a lot of potential bettors doing other things when they could just as easily be putting their spare change into the mutuel pools at their local tracks. It also has to be simple enough that a typical race can be run--by hand--in a couple of minutes. The idea is to enable novices to make a correlation between winning and poking about with a software application. That means it has to give them a good shot at making a profit on their wagers.

I understand that it not all that simple, because (for one thing) instructions for use need to be brief, simple, and understandable. We developed an app a couple of years ago to do our own testing of Trackmaster ratings (among other things). Perhaps their ratings have improved since then, and I was hoping to tweak that app (that already has a lot of usable code) to make the freebie. That is the purpose of the questions.

[cj]

Ok, first I don't need to make the case about Beyer numbers not accounting for the runup do I? He wrote three books on it explaining every detail. He didn't mention the runup til he wrote Beyer On Speed in the chapter The Mathematics of Pace ( I think).


Here David Siegel president of Trackmaster explains how their figures are made.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OHaEnuBNXuY

See Section 2, Race Adjustments at about 9 minutes into the video For the discussion of the runup.

Whether directly or indirectly, all figure makers adjust for run up, even if they don't realize it.

I'll have the watch the video, but I am doubtful that anyone can accurately adjust for run up for all horses in a race, particularly when the only time given is for the horse hitting the beam first without regard to where the other horses are at that time.

I also don't think there is any way to accurately adjust final time based on run up either, not with the technology used anyway. I've studied it a lot.

[Greyfox]

Whether directly or indirectly, all figure makers adjust for run up, even if they don't realize it.

I'll have the watch the video, but I am doubtful that anyone can accurately adjust for run up for all horses in a race, particularly when the only time given is for the horse hitting the beam first without regard to where the other horses are at that time.

I also don't think there is any way to accurately adjust final time based on run up either, not with the technology used anyway. I've studied it a lot.

Agreed! :ThmbUp:

[MPRanger]

Whether directly or indirectly, all figure makers adjust for run up, even if they don't realize it.


You have a shipper from Fairgrounds with a 70 ft runup going to Gulfstream with a 7 ft runup. Final Beyer figures may indirectly address the the runups with the track to track adjustment but the problem comes when you try to make a pace figure using the Beyer variant. You cannot accurately compare pace figures in this scenario. On the other hand, this info in itself is useful because it's not obvious to the crowd.

No doubt you can make your own accurate pace numbers by doing a lot of extra work digging out the runups from the charts and whatever other metrics you want. My point is that it just isn't necessary. The TM figures handle such comparisons accurately for you already.

In my opinion, TM speed figures are usually more accurate than Beyer numbers also. ( not to beat up on Beyer, just an example). Even Beyer asks, "How did he earn the figure?", yet those figs are simply based on final times and nothing else. TM accounts for wind and other environmental conditions that may change from race to race.

[/QUOTE]


I'll have the watch the video, but I am doubtful that anyone can accurately adjust for run up for all horses in a race, particularly when the only time given is for the horse hitting the beam first without regard to where the other horses are at that time.




I'm sure you'll find it interesting at the very least.


I also don't think there is any way to accurately adjust final time based on run up either, not with the technology used anyway. I've studied it a lot.

Maybe not but as a matter of comparison, TM speed figs do it better than Beyer figs in most cases. However, occaisionally the numbers don't seem normal compared to other races a horse has run for whatever reason. Beyer would make an adjustment based on intuition where the computer generated TM numbers give it to you as is. A handicapper has to use his own judgement in all cases.

[MPRanger]

Unless it just has to be software ....

Maybe consider making up some snazzy quick reference charts?

[raybo]

My interest is not entirely personal. I have been trying to develop a quick-and-easy application for novices, to give them an idea of what can be done with relatively simple software. My intention was (and is) to make it available for free to anyone who wants it.

The kicker is that it has to be manual entry--to avoid the "off-putting" initial cost of data subscriptions that keeps a lot of potential bettors doing other things when they could just as easily be putting their spare change into the mutuel pools at their local tracks. It also has to be simple enough that a typical race can be run--by hand--in a couple of minutes. The idea is to enable novices to make a correlation between winning and poking about with a software application. That means it has to give them a good shot at making a profit on their wagers.

I understand that it not all that simple, because (for one thing) instructions for use need to be brief, simple, and understandable. We developed an app a couple of years ago to do our own testing of Trackmaster ratings (among other things). Perhaps their ratings have improved since then, and I was hoping to tweak that app (that already has a lot of usable code) to make the freebie. That is the purpose of the questions.

Why would you go to all the trouble of creating a program if you're not going to make automatic importing of data as it's core? You could always offer an option for manual data entry. Just saying, most players that want to migrate to computer programs don't want to enter anything, and they want the ability to manipulate the raw data, IMO.