Trouble with a horse, wondering if anyone has thoughts.

[cordep17]

http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=FPK&race=1&date=2013-05-11
The 1 horse has been racing at Will Rogers. I can't find anywhere to go for a replay and they don't keep track of fractional times, I suppose. How are you supposed to analyze his performance when there is nothing to look at? Loosing by less than a length looks good on paper, but certain things may have happend in that race to produce such an outcome. I don't feel comfortable guessing at what he is capable of.

How would you guys deal with such a predicament?

[johnhannibalsmith]

...

How would you guys deal with such a predicament?

Keep my money out of the pool.

[cordep17]

theoretically?

I like the 1a to finish in the money, so it isn't too big of a deal. It is just that I think this is the first time I have encountered a pony like him that ran a route and doesn't have fractional times.

[therussmeister]

BRIS past performances gives pace ratings for races without fractional times. I have no opinion if they are any good, I was going to try them out this summer at Suffolk because they do not give fractional times for their turf races.

[Tom]

Maybe the pace ratings are "theoretical?"

[johnhannibalsmith]

theoretically?

...

Honestly, I just barely glanced at the race itself, but the entry is 7-5 M/L and I didn't see much about the other half that set him apart from the field to justify that price. If the tote price resembled the M/L, it's an entry that I'd want to try to beat if I were playing the race, so if the most recent running lines are missing crucial data and I'm not familiar with the competition he faced in those recent races with no internals so I can at least make some assessment of the performance based on that context, I just can't see how I would get into playing the race. I guess if I was playing some early pick bet because I loved a horse in the third or something I might spread a little on a ticket just to use my key later on in the sequence or some scenario like that, but just as far as playing the race itself, you can't even make a mental picture based on those lines with the horse closer to the pace early in the sprint than in the route and whatnot.

Hell, if I had to play the race for a contest or something, I guess for the record I'd take the :5: as the possible pace and a horse that seems to like the new track he's at while stretching out to face winners for the first time in his third back off the layoff. But yeah, without a clear picture of one of the primary contenders on past form who happens to look like the better half of the m/l favorite entry, I doubt I could take a swing there other than for shins and grits.

[duncan04]

The races without the fractions are the races that are hand timed

[thaskalos]

How can you exclude a horse who has run good races at Remington Park and Lone Star as well...especially when the only two horses in the race who show any semblance of form did so while running at lowly Fairmount Park?

From the speed figures alone the horse rates as the top contender.

[Robert Fischer]

:1: looks tough to beat. Would like to know if Young and Durham routinely transfer horses, because of the appearance of a drop-off in trainer.
:1a: looks weak

:5: CARLI'S SONG is the ml value. Looks like a lightbulb finally went off in the trainer/owner's head. This horse once ran MC50K at Churchill :D. Sharp last race.

:3: RETAIL is a longshot exotics add. Last race dropped to this class for the first time and was 7-2. Used up early sprinting clear early from a tough outside post. Back in 11 days.

[pondman]

Hell, if I had to play the race for a contest or something, I guess for the record I'd take the :5: as the possible pace and a horse that seems to like the new track he's at while stretching out to face winners for the first time in his third back off the layoff.
If you consistently bet this type of horse over time, you will be a very wealthy person. :5: has what I need to see at 6-1, plus you are in against what I'd consider a sucker bet 7-5 favorite. The favorite screams out to be avoided. But this is a long term approach and you need to be able to live with loosing on tickets. If you don't have the bankroll to carry you through a season then pass on the race. If this is a sudden death decision and you need rent money, I'd pass.

[BlueChip@DRF]

http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=FPK&race=1&date=2013-05-11
The 1 horse has been racing at Will Rogers. I can't find anywhere to go for a replay and they don't keep track of fractional times, I suppose. How are you supposed to analyze his performance when there is nothing to look at? Loosing by less than a length looks good on paper, but certain things may have happend in that race to produce such an outcome. I don't feel comfortable guessing at what he is capable of.

How would you guys deal with such a predicament?

I found a 'hole' in the DRF replays. You can do just about any thoroughbred track in the Form, any race, and pretty much almost any date. I will show you how to manipulate it. Give me the date, track, race number you are looking for and I will private message you.

[RXB]

http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=FPK&race=1&date=2013-05-11
The 1 horse has been racing at Will Rogers. I can't find anywhere to go for a replay and they don't keep track of fractional times, I suppose. How are you supposed to analyze his performance when there is nothing to look at? Loosing by less than a length looks good on paper, but certain things may have happend in that race to produce such an outcome. I don't feel comfortable guessing at what he is capable of.

How would you guys deal with such a predicament?

Just skip the race. There are lots of races each day; why waste time with this one if you're uncomfortable?

[thaskalos]

Just skip the race. There are lots of races each day; why waste time with this one if you're uncomfortable?

Especially since the entry figures to go off at odds of 2/5...

[FiveWide]

The past 2 races the horse gained ground in the fastest part of the race against higher level company. Must use horse IMO but I'm not a fan of this race. I would only play if playing the DD.


-Five

[cordep17]

Barely played the race...$10
boxed the 1 and 6 and got it
boxed the 1 6 3 Exacta for $1, even though I had 5 negatives for every positive in regards to the three. Looking back on it, I feel like a numbskull for using him. So, I got the $3 exacta.

the 1 won by 10
the 1a edged out the 6 (I too saw little appealing with the 1a)
the three finished next to last, never competing for the lead like I thought he could get easily at the time.

I initially planned to pass, but one of the above made me reconsider. Based on the running line alone, it was safe to assume he was in form. He ran well at Lone Star and Remington, so I used similar running lines.

Didn't break or make the bank.

[cordep17]

especially when the only two horses in the race who show any semblance of form did so while running at lowly Fairmount Park?

Fairmount felt more classy than usual tonight, but this race was lowest of low.